Formula 1 2023 - Italian Grand Prix and Singapore Grand Prix

Most of the exclamation marks have been removed, but a few of them are unavoidable.

I told myself not to get excited after the Italian Grand Prix, because everyone knows that Ferrari turn the engines up and damn the consequences at Monza.  It was hard not to get excited though, because, those magnificent beautiful red cars racing each other, even while giving us fans and Frederic Vasseur kittens (I did love the subtle irony he used when saying, "some people have a different concept of 'no risk'" (https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.vasseur-says-he-really-appreciated-sainz-and-leclercs-intra-team-tussle-in.r7NX3jKu0wuHaOelgsLZh.html).

But everyone was talking about Ferrari and how exciting they'd been and how nice it was to see racing, and racing within a team.

My team, held up as what F1 should be.  So lovely!!!

After a couple of weeks to calm down (and it was needed) there was the Singapore Grand Prix.  I wasn't expecting anything from it.  Street circuit.  Red Bull.  Tyre degradation is important.  These were not good signs.

Then Verstappen goes out in Q2.  It's Singapore, so it's difficult to overtake, so maybe that takes him out of the equation.

Then the lovely, marvellous, fantastic Carlos Sainz jnr gets the Ferrari on pole, second race in a row and, it's Singapore, and it's difficult to overtake.

I steel myself, it will all go horribly wrong somehow.

And then ... it doesn't.

It very nearly does, but at least this time it wasn't Ferrari that caused the problems for Leclerc's pitstop.

But, and this is the thing that gave me the most joy was that Sainz jnr worked out a solution by himself.  It shows clarity of thinking.  Is he not the most marvellous and wonderful sneaky darling!!!!

I have accepted that the victory is a one-off, for the time being, but I'm seeing things that give me hope.

Rugby World Cup 2023 - Network diagram at the start of the competition

As promised, the network diagrams. 

These were correct as of the start of the tournament. 

Due to the higher number of injuries in rugby than football, I'll do the updated versions after each round (and catch up with round 2 and 3 changes). 

This is what the network diagram looked like at the start of the tournament: The first thing that stands out to me is how much more spread the network diagram is than the equivalent for football. 

This is probably due to several of the rugby unions having policies that say you can't play for the national team if you play abroad (or only once you have some ridiculous number of caps so it is almost the same as saying you can't). 

On the other hand, it's more together than the equivalent diagram from 2019. 

Every player in the New Zealand, France, Ireland and Japan squads plays in their home league, while none of the Tongans do. 

Something else that might throw the diagram slightly is while the football and rugby league World Cups take place in the gaps between seasons (or do normally, 2022 was weird), rugby union takes place once the Northern hemisphere season has already started, so some of the elder statesmen are down as already having moved to their retirement homes teams or are unattached because once their national team are out, they're done. 

That is partly why South Africa and Japan are so close together. 

Most national teams have a couple of club teams where most of their players play (Chile are the most extreme with 27/33 players playing for Selknam, but New Zealand and Ireland's 33 players play for 4-5 club teams), with Namibia, Portugal and Argentina being the exceptions to this. 

Selknam are the club team with the most representatives (27) followed by Penarol with 21 of the 33 Uruguayan team playing for them. Benetton and Moana Pasifika are tied for the third most representatives with 19 but there's are slightly more mixed although heavily Italian, Samoan and Tongan. 

It's a sign of the changes in rugby union that none of the 10 Perpignan players in the World Cup play for France, and all 4 of the Newcastle Falcons players play for Argentina. 

The creation of teams like Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika have not only probably had a really good effect on the results of Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, but have changed the shape of the network diagram. Moana Pasifika, in particular, links Samoa and Tonga so tightly that in the community view they are one community. That's why there's 20 national teams but only 19 communities. 

Georgia are the national team closest to the centre, with Oyonnax the club team closest to the centre, which might reflect the French top two divisions being a melting pot producing many of the links between teams. 

I think that is why there's the tight cluster of 7 teams (Samoa, Tonga, France, Argentina, Italy, England and Wales) in the centre of the bottom of the diagrams. 

Because of teams like Ireland and New Zealand who only pick players from their own league, and those leagues having fewer foreign players in, the "strength" of being at the centre of the diagram as a predictive factor is less in rugby union, so I shan't be making predictions.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 - A closer look at England after their second game

(The network diagrams are coming, they're finished, I just need to write the text round them) 

(The post about the Italian Grand Prix and the Singapore Grand Prix is also coming, I just need to take out all the exclamation marks) 

My summary of the Japan vs England game to L was "What England were doing right last week they aren't doing right this week", which I stand by.

Although at least someone not called George Ford has now scored for England   

Here is when England scored points, by time and player

The number of point-scoring moments England players were present for looks like this 

It does look like there's a solid core of Itoje, May, Marchant, Ford, Daly and Earl that are present when England score. 

The dendrogram of which players were on the pitch at the same time when England scored looks like this   

I'm including the dendrogram because, due to the number of England players who have been on the pitch when England scored, the matrix is only showing half the names. Normally when that happens, it's staggered and half go on the x-axis and half go on the y-axis. For whatever mathematical/spatial reason, that hasn't happened this time, and I still can't sit still in one position long enough to add the names in either half. Once leg is healed, I will try and get this done. 

The matrix looks like this:  The network diagram helps identify the players not marked on the matrix diagram: After two games, there isn't yet a pattern of when England concede points   

England's opponents haven't had enough point-scoring moments for there to be a concession network diagram, but the matrix looks like this:  I'm trying to figure out if Joe Marler's line is unexpectedly pale (suggesting he was on the pitch for fewer point concession than those around him) or if it's just a side effect of props not playing 80 minutes anymore.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 - Round up after the first set of games and a detailed look at England

Because of everything, these posts will be out of order, so no network visualisations yet. 

What are my takeaways from the first round of matches? 

1 - I love the idea behind having a choir sing the anthems. It might be good if the choir, the stadium and the players were all going at the same time though. 

2 - I love both Gordon D'Arcy and whoever the Scottish commentator was for South Africa vs Scotland. I particularly loved when the Scottish commentator after this South African try. Because it was too beautiful to complain about it being scored against your team. 

3 - It was too hot for rugby (and Warren Gatland is a sociopath if he's against water breaks) 

4 - With point 3 as a caveat, France can't defend their left flank, New Zealand have no go forward, the Irish lineout is appallingly bad, Chile are not going to go home wondering "what if", and Argentina are inexplicable. 

5 - So are England. That was the oddest match of rugby I ever saw. I am looking forward to the next wave of games. 

~~~~ 

As a treat for L, I wanted to do something like I did for the England Rugby League team at their World Cup (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2022/11/22/rugby-league-world-cup-2021-semifinal-experience-and-wrap-up-of-the-england-team-data-viz-project/) for the England Rugby Union team. 

 Following the very odd England vs Argentina match, when did England score their points?

Whenever George Ford wanted to    

No really, it was one of the completest examples of "player enforcing his will on the opposition" I ever did see. 

Which is also evident by the "who scored for England and when?" chart. Several other players who were not George Ford were also present for all of England's point-scoring moments. Arise Maro Itoje, Jonny May, Joe Marchant, Freddie Stewart, Elliot Daly and Ben Earl. 

This makes the "England players together when they scored" charts look like this:  (Sorry the X axis names cut off, I can't spend enough time sitting in front of the computer at one go to fix them) Given the circumstances, I feel it cruel to show the "who was on the pitch when England conceded" diagrams because it's players who'd been on the pitch for 77 minutes while being a player down. 

What are my not-entirely-statistical take home notes: 

1 - I don't see how you can bring Owen Farrell into this team, given how good George Ford was. 

2 - That is a nice core of a team England have. 

3 - I am so happy to see Manu Tuilagi having a good game (sorry, I am a Saints fan of Freddie Tuilagi vintage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freddie_Tuilagi)) 

4 - <3 Courtney Lawes

Rugby World Cup 2023 - First Post

Today is the first day of the Rugby World Cup 2023, which will hopefully start with a cracker of a France vs New Zealand match.

I had intended to have three sets of posts for this World Cup.

The first was the usual network visualisation using Gephi.

The second was a different, and much speedier way, of visualising the same thing, as described by James Ashford (@jrashf@mastodonapp.uk / https://jrashford.com/) in this post - https://jrashford.com/2023/08/25/using-graph-theory-model-teams-and-players-relations-in-the-world-cup/ 

I've been looking for ages for something that explains how to get data for this sort of thing off Wikipedia easily, and his description is really easy to follow.  The other advantage of that is that it gives me more control of colours and labelling that Gephi has at present (and should solve the chopping off of team names problem).

The third is a present for L, so I'll be a bit mysterious about it till it's ready.

You'll notice "intended" not "have", my plans were already slightly behind due to a holiday, and then I broke my leg.  Don't worry, I'm fine, just very grateful for North of Tyne (https://www.notmrt.org.uk/) and Northumberland National Park (https://nnpmrt.org/) mountain rescue teams for getting me off the hill in question.

It's slightly cramped my computer style so I've fallen behind.  There will still be the three sets of posts, but they will be delayed.

Formula 1 - Belgian Grand Prix 2023

I am aware that the Belgian Grand Prix was some time ago.  I have been busy (it's a very long story).

In keeping with the previous races, I didn't get to see or hear the race, this time because of a Saturday and Sunday museum double header, where I said hello to large dinosaurs (https://www.nhm.ac.uk/visit/exhibitions/titanosaur.html) and large steam engines (https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/home).

I don't think I missed much with the race, which, you know makes me sad because it's the Belgian Grand Prix.

I did manage to catch the sprint race though, and be thoroughly melodramatic at the inevitable Ferrari oops.

The interesting thing, because Ferrari screwing up again is not interesting, was L's reaction to the sprint race.  L is not a die-hard, he is, at best, a long-suffering dragged-along-by-a-friend.  He's precisely the sort of person the changes to F1 are supposed to be trying to attract, and he ... found it to be pointless.  Completely bored.  Worse than dislike in many ways.

Me not liking the sprints as a cranky old fan is sort of expected, but that's it's completely not registering with the target audience is a sign they need to go back to the drawing board.

Women's World Cup 2023 - Final Network Diagram

As you can all imagine, full working decorum was maintained at all time between the Australian and English offices for the entirety of Wednesday morning (UK time) and the company messaging system was full of GIFs flying in all directions. 

(We also have the rugby union and cricket World Cups where similar battlelines might be drawn.) 

The network diagrams now look like this: The club team closest to the centre are Manchester United. 

Because so many of Spain's players play in Real Madrid and Barcelona, but England have two players playing for Barcelona, England are slightly closer to the centre. 

Barcelona are the team with the most representatives in the final, with 10 players. Next are Real Madrid with 8 and Manchester City with 6. 

Manchester United and Barcelona link the two national teams, with Ona Batlle of Spain, and Mary Earps, Ella Toone, Katie Zelem and Alessia Russo of England playing for Manchester United and Irene Paredes, Aitana Bonmati, Mariona Caldenty, Alexia Putellas, Laia Codina, Maria Perez, Salma Paralluelo and Cata Coll of Spain and Lucy Bronze and Keira Walsh of England playing for Barcelona.

Once a tournament is down to two teams, the community view doesn't give a lot of information, but I'm including them here because it's quite pretty this time.  

I will be spending Sunday morning hiding from the match so I don't jinx England. I have been informed by colleagues that this is ridiculous. They will thank me if England win.

Women's World Cup 2023 - Semifinals Network Diagrams

In the predictions made in the last post, the diagram got 2/3 correct where there was a proper prediction.

Following the eliminations after the quarterfinals, the network diagrams now look like this:  

It's now sort of squished diamond shape, with most of the weight in the Australia, England and Sweden cluster at the bottom of the diamond. Spain are the team sticking out at the top. Sticking out is normally a bad sign for the next match, but Spain are Spain and are somehow doing well despite a whole lot of problems. 

England are the national team closest to the centre, with Chelsea (just about) being the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most representatives are Barcelona with 11 players left representing them, followed by Manchester City with 10 and then Chelsea and Real Madrid with 8. France going out wiped out the Paris Saint Germain and Lyon players (not totally, but not far short since it reduced them to 1 player left each). 

The community view is interesting, given there's 4 teams left and 5 communities. Arsenal are the mysterious 5th community, I think because they link 3 of the teams (Australia, Sweden and England). 

As for the diagram's predictions for the semifinals, they are as follows: 

Sweden vs Spain - diagram probably says Sweden, football knowledge says Spain. The diagram has been mysteriously right about Sweden so far but I don't think it can continue. 

England vs Australia - knowledge (esp. since Australia are at home) says "dunno", diagram says England just.

Women's World Cup 2023 - Quarterfinal Network Visualisations

I start with an admission: of the predictions I made in my last post except for the USA vs Sweden match, where the diagram disagreed with footballing knowledge, the diagram was wrong. 

But I'm still going to carry on making the network diagrams because I enjoy it and because they look pretty. 

The community views look particularly pretty this time, but let's start with the usual network diagrams that look at the links between teams.   

The club team closest to the centre is Manchester United, while France and England are the national teams closest to the centre. 

Denmark and Norway being eliminated has broken up the Nordic+Australia pack at the bottom. There's now a cluster of 5 teams (Netherlands, France, England, Sweden and Australia) with Spain and Colombia sticking up and Japan sticking out at the bottom. 

The club teams with the most representatives are Manchester City (with 12 players representing them), then Real Madrid and Barcelona (with 11) and Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain (with 9). 

As I mentioned, the community views are very pretty.  

There are 8 teams left, who are now each their own community. 

For the quarterfinals, the diagram's predictions are as follows: 

Spain vs Netherland - Knowledge and diagram says "ooooooh" because that should be a good match. 

Japan vs Sweden - Diagram says Sweden, knowledge says Japan, Japan's players tending not to play overseas, is a thing, and that will affect the diagram. 

Australia vs France - Diagram says France, Knowledge says France are mis-firing but have depths of talent and are mercurial France! vs home town Australia so, who knows. 

England vs Colombia - Diagram and knowledge say England, although they've been making tough work of it so far.

Women's World Cup 2023 - Last 16 Network Diagrams

The first set of diagrams (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/07/22/womens-world-cup-2023-group-stage-network-diagrams/) was remarkably good at predicting the outcome of the group stages. 

The 3/16 that I didn't predict were Canada, although I did say group A would be tight, Italy, because they confounded me (again) and Germany, but I don't think anyone guessed that Germany would collapse like that. Definitely not German colleague who started a meeting with "please no jokes". 

To an extent, I think both Italy and Germany's closeness to the tight group at the bottom of the previous diagram was what meant I thought they'd go through when reading the diagram. 

With half the teams eliminated, the network diagram now looks like this. Much like Eurovision, there's a European and Australian cluster, which means the "central weight" of the diagram is not in the middle. 

That means that saying that either Leicester or the Chicago Red Stars are the club team closest to the centre, and either England or Nigeria are the national team closest to the centre doesn't give as much information as usual. 

The club teams with the most representatives left are Barcelona (with 15), Manchester City (with 13) and Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid (with 12 each). Manchester City and Real have crept up by not losing players, while other teams did. 

The community view looks like this: One day I'll figure out how to stop Gephi from cutting off the edges of the labels when the exceed the edges of the diagram. 

There are still three multi-team clusters, they are: 

England and Australia 

Denmark and Norway 

France and Netherlands 

These were also clusters in the first set of diagrams, with the change being that Sweden has moved out of the England and Australia cluster. 

While some of the eliminations were relatively straightforward to predict, the last 16 provides a number of games where "football knowledge" suggests one winner, and the diagram another. They are: Switzerland vs Spain - football knowledge says Spain, the diagram is unclear 

Netherlands vs South Africa - knowledge and diagram say Netherlands 

Japan vs Norway - knowledge says Japan, diagram says Norway 

Sweden vs United States - knowledge says United States, diagram says Sweden (US have been an outlying team, even when they win [https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2019/07/01/womens-world-cup-semifinals/] so I think this might be one of the times when their is a weakness of the diagram based on circumstance. 

Australia vs Denmark - Ooooh, that's down as either way whichever method you look at it. 

France vs Morocco - knowledge and diagram say France, goalie hopefully says no (although I am happy with either team winning because I <3 renard="" wendi="">England vs Nigeria - knowledge and diagram says England Colombia vs Jamaica - knowledge says Colombia, diagram says Jamaica 

So this should be a good test of the underlying theory. 

(Even if it's wrong, I'll still keep making the diagrams because they're so pretty)