Wednesday 29 March 2023

In which we know that UEFA won't do anything about dual ownership but a girl can dream

This statement by Aleksander Ceferin about people owning more than one club (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64971337) amuses/infuriates me. 

Partly it's the that they seem to only care now that it's "big" clubs affected (or pseudo-big, call me back when PSG actually win the Champions League), when there's been multi-club ownership for a while. 

The other part is "yes, Alexander Ceferin, head of the organisation in charge of European football, I don't know why the people in power, such as the organisation in charge of European football, haven't looked at it before. Why don't you tell yourself next time you look in a mirror?" 

I know that is not a helpful comment but football organisations don't make me feel helpful. 

I also know this is not going to lead to anything except, at most, some easily circumvented rules intended to establish ethical walls between clubs. 

But my brain decided to think, "what if?" 

For a lot of the conglomerates that own more than one club, the decision will probably be easy. I think the Belgian first and second divisions would see a sudden efflux of money. 

Other teams, such as Udinese and Watford, both owned by the Pozzo family, that could be more interesting, but I suspect they'd keep Watford. On the other hand, their whole business model is based on flipping players and maximising gain so would they even keep either team. (Okay, yes, I know, they're Italian football team owners, trying to guess what they'll do next is impossible.) 

Then the evil cackling began, because I realised this would put Red Bull in a truly awkward position. Because I understand why a Thai drink sold through an Austrian distributor has always made much of it's Austrian-ness, and particularly it's mountain-regions-of-Austria-ness because a lot of the extreme sports that Red Bull chose to build its brand around have strong Austrian presence (you have a sport that features going too fast, in a mostly downhill direction, you'll get Austrians. It seems to be a national problem.). And the factory is there. Which made buying Salzburg and rebranding it make sense. 

It also makes buying Hype-zig (sorry Leipzig) and rebranding it sensible - it was, at the time, a city riding high on a high energy, young, fresh'n'new vibe. 

Let us be honest about the relative strengths of the two leagues - your brand will look cooler doing well in the German Bundesliga rather than winning the Austrian Bundesliga, and it's easier to bring good footballers into a German team. 

So Red Bull are in a right pickle if this new rule is brought in because they would either have to do something really stupid financially (no really, the German Bundesliga team are the financially sensible option), or have to against years and years of marketing positioning. 

That would amuse me anyway, but the idea of Red Bull Salzburg being brought back down to Earth warms the cockles of my evil heart because I was brought up green and white and Rapid (I will accept Admira Wacker Mödling because ... the family friend who is an Admira sufferer has now gone through 56 years of hurt and I don't see it getting better soon). 

Finally, there is hope of not being run over by Red Bull. 

(Before anyone says anything, yes, I get the same sinking feeling in both football and F1, it is unfortunate.)

Wednesday 22 March 2023

Would the real winner of the 3rd place trophy at Jeddah please stand up?

At time of press, Fernando Alonso was still the holder of 3rd place at the Saudi Grand Prix but that might change again, because, quite frankly I put nothing past the stewards at this point. 

What was a reasonably interesting race has been completely overshadowed by some very bizarre decision making on their part. 

What was looking like a half decent weekend for Ferrari was ruined by one of the odder safety car decisions of recent memory. Admittedly, given Leclerc's luck is looking like Webber's luck of old, I have no doubt that something else would have happened if they hadn't decided to use a full safety car to retrieve a car that wasn't even stopped on track (Chapeau to Stroll for parking it that well in an emergency. Did we ever find out what caused the emergency "stop the car now Lance" message?). 

Two failed ECUs and a half-decent Ferrari strategy shout getting ruined by non-Ferrari mistakes, all in two races, I'm not going to say Lady Luck is against us, but it's as good an explanation as any. 

It's particularly annoying because there are the green shoots of possible Ferrari recovery. 

Whisper it quietly, but, were it not for the safety car, that Ferrari strategy might have worked, and Ferrari had the fastest pit stop in Bahrain. 

Everything except the results seems to be coming together.

Wednesday 15 March 2023

Formula 1 - Did the fastest lap and sprint points make any difference in 2022?

Last year, I looked at whether the fastest lap points and sprint race points had any effect on the 2021 Championships. The answer was no, as it had been for the fastest lap points for the 10 years previous. I’m feeling decidedly justified in declaring them a gimmick. 

I would expect them to have had very little effect in 2022 either, not least because of the size of Red Bull’s victory margin.
The fastest lap points winners from 2022 can be found below.   2022-Fastest-Lap 
7 different drivers and 4 different constructors won fastest lap points which is in line with an average season. 

The final standings for the Constructors' Championships, with and without the fastest lap points. 2022-Constructors Removing the fastest lap points makes no change in the Constructors Title. 

How about in the Drivers's championship? 2022-Drivers Once again, the fastest lap points lead to no changes. 

That means if we put together the calculated total points if there had been fastest laps from 2009-2018, and the actual results in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, 0 constructors results out of 149 have been affected by fastest lap points. 
In the drivers’ championship, the number of results affected is 11/327 (3.36% of all results), and none of those are in the top 3 of any given year. 

Let’s look at the sprint races, maybe they had an effect, especially with the extra points available in 2022, after the damp squib the sprint races had been in 2021. 

The sprint race points were as follows: 2022-Sprint-Points Because there were points available for more sprint race places in 2022, I've also made tables for which constructors and drivers got points. Sprint-races-2022-teams Sprint-races-2022-drivers 

Do the sprint race points have an effect on either championship? 2022-Constructors-sprint 
* and ¶ = teams whose positions swapped.
  2022-Drivers-sprint 
*, ¶ and § = drivers whose positions swapped. 

Giving points to almost half the field 3 times a year changes the position of 6 of the drivers. Only 2 of those drivers are really at the pointy end of the championship. 

So, what have we learned 
• The 1 point for fastest lap is too small to affect anything. I think that’s also why the top teams don’t really go for extra pitstops just to get it. 
• The increase in points for the sprint races in 2022 meant they did affect things. 
• But probably not enough to justify the extra time and effort 
• Plus it’s not like they actually produce more racing, either during the sprint or the main race 
• Help, I am agreeing with Christian Horner about something.

Thursday 9 March 2023

I hereby dub the Ferrari SF-23 "the Fretful Porpentine"

77414 Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik 

Why am I calling it that? 

Because it too sheds spiky parts and is concerning. 

Possibly I am over-reacting to one race but I had my concerns after testing. 

Some of them were, I grant, less sensible than others. I like the Ferrari to be the prettiest car on the grid, but I fear the Alfa Romeo may be the prettiest car this year (https://twitter.com/F1/status/1622886779136184321). This year's Ferrari looks like this - https://twitter.com/F1/status/1625456362997129216 

(I am intrigued by the different shape of the rear wing for the Alfa Romeo and the Alpha Tauri versus the other cars on the grid - https://twitter.com/F1/status/1629425434109652992

Some of them were more wide-ranging. I see that Ferrari have a new team principal, which is normally a sign that Ferrari have run out of ideas. I have nothing again Frederic Vasseur (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Vasseur), and I think he'll do a good job, but I don't think most of the problems last year were Mattia Binotto's fault. Maybe the changes Vasseur has already made will help, but time will tell. 

I was expecting more of a gap between testing and the first race. I expect F1 to kick off around St. Patrick's day; I think I've forgotten that there are more races per season now. This means I didn't post any of that before the first race in Bahrain (it also means my 75% finished post on the Tour de France Femmes is going to be delayed further). 

So qualifying in Bahrain starts, and Leclerc's car decides to shed aero parts causing a red flag. I rechristen the SF-23. Ferrari do something interesting with tyre strategy, and, I am happy to give them the benefit of the doubt here, because Leclerc made it sound like strategy, not an oversight, and we all know that he has no poker face. 

Then there's the race. 

I can live with Alonso getting past Sainz because Alonso was just having one of those races, because he's Fernando Alonso having one of those races. I am less happy with Perez blasting past Leclerc because Ferrari will hopefully be fighting against Red Bull this season and the ease of the pass does not bode well. 

Then ... then ... I am choosing to blame Channel 4, who were literally in the middle of saying there had only been one retirement when Leclerc's Ferrari went pop. Cue Leclerc making one of those anguished noises. Or, to quote Channel 4 after Leclerc's post-race interview, "I don't remember what happy Leclerc looks like." Which is a pretty damning statement. 

In response to that, because I can cope with people hating Ferrari or fearing Ferrari but not with them pitying Ferrari, I am bringing back the bingo card. Bahrain-2023 Post-race inquest revealed that it was an engine failure, which is why that's been dabbed. 

I think Leclerc's post-failure radio message definitely counts as "that noise". 

Guys, it's first race in and there's already been three boxes dabbed. This is not promising. 

On the other hand, it could have been worse, either driver could have had Estaban Ocon's horror of a race.