Copa America 2024

Doing my usual network graphs for the Copa America. It being the same year as the Euros acts as a nice compare and contrast (for the Euro 2024 group stage diagram, please see here - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/06/15/euro-2024-network-diagram-only-a-day-late/).

Group Stage: The Copa America network graph at the group stage is less tightly packed and inter-connected than the equivalent Euros graph Argentina are not as central as I would have expected, and the US is more central than I would have expected. Toluca are the club team closest to the centre. 

Venezuela are probably the national team closest to the centre, but that's very "ish". 

The club team with the most representatives are Bolivar with 9. They are followed by America and Saprissa with 7, then Universitario, Flamengo, Fulham, Porto, Always Ready, Libertad and Herediano with 5. 

Jamaica are the odd team out because they only have a squad of 25, compared to everyone else's squad of 26. 

All national teams have at least one player playing in their home league. 

If the outlying teams predict the teams that are going out, I would expect Bolivia, Panama, Costa Rica, Peru and Jamaica to be among the teams that went out after the group stages, with the others being USA, Argentina and Chile. And I don't think Argentina will be out. 

Quarterfinals: The teams that went out were Chile, Peru, Mexico, Jamaica, United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica and Paraguay. The graph predicted 6/8 teams that went out. It included 2/3 of the hosts of the next World Cup which does not bode well. 

Canada were not the one of the three that I was expecting to survive (are Canada better than we think?). 

Because most of the outliers have gone, the remaining 8 teams are more evenly spread.  

The club teams with the most players left in are: 

4 = Liverpool, Flamengo, Porto, Universidad Catolica, Real Madrid 

3 = Atletico Madrid, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Minnesota United FC, CF Montreal, Independiente del Valle, Internacional, Sao Paulo, Girona, Paris Saint-Germain and Krasnodar 

Brazil are the national team closest the centre and Sao Paulo are the club team closest. Guessing from which team are the furthest from the centre, Panama are likely to go out. With the others it's less easy to tell, but I would expect Uruguay and Brazil to get through. 

Semifinals: I know Uruguay are good, so I don't think Brazil losing to them is time to declare the end of the world but ... Brazilian football in crisis? 

Canada getting through to the semifinals was also unexpected. 

What do the semifinal diagrams look like? Colombia are the team closest to the centre, with River Plate the club closest to the centre. The diagram is not positive for Canada's chances in the semifinals. 

Finals: After a semifinal that nearly ended in a riot - https://www.infobae.com/colombia/deportes/2024/07/11/con-pelea-en-la-tribuna-y-lagrimas-de-james-y-luis-diaz-asi-termino-la-semifinal-entre-colombia-y-uruguay/ (I am not sure how it is Suarez's fault but ...), the final had Argentina winning. 

I won't say it looked like yet another tournament when it felt like the organisers were bending over backwards to help Argentina to win but ... (I will never forgive FIFA for making me agree with the Croatian football federation). 

It also featured poor organisation and celebrations that people had to apologise for - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica#Argentine_celebrations 

Hopefully neither of these will be repeated at World Cup 2026. The diagram before the final looked like this.  

While the Copa America group stages were less interconnected than the Euros, the finals are not much less interconnected. The Euro 2024 final had 4 club teams with players on both national teams (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/07/12/euro-2024-final-network-diagram/), the Copa America final had 3. 

The three are River Plate, Liverpool and Aston Villa, which I think says a lot about Aston Villa's return to prominence. (There is a small local bias. Only half my colleagues hate everything about this, the other half are enjoying a season where they have beaten Bayern Munich.) 

What have we discovered: 

1) The "closest to the centre" theory work for European Men's Football, Men's rugby union and men's rugby league. It works less well for European Women's Football and CONCAF/COMEBOL competitions. 

2) Argentina and Brazil see my attempts at prediction and mock them.

Euro 2024 Final Network Diagram

Looks like this: The labelled version looks like this: The thing that really leaps out at me, having done this since Euro 2012 is how much more interconnected the final two teams are. 

In 2012, only one club team, Manchester City, would have had someone on the winning team no matter what. 

In 2024, four teams can say that, Manchester City again, along with Real Madrid, Chelsea and Arsenal. 

Chelsea are the club team closest to the centre. 

Five club teams share the position of "most players left in", Real Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona, Manchester City and Crystal Palace all have 4 players left in. Crystal Palace is the one that surprises me the most and suggests they have a much better academy system than I suspected. 

As England have got to the final with me not watching, I will continue not to watch lest I am a jinx. It's an odd situation where I have no preferred team, although both teams have a couple of players I really like.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - It looks like the semifinals could get interesting

I said Spain vs Germany would be close (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/07/04/euro-2024-network-diagram-quarterfinals/). And I think the semifinals are going to be even closer. Normally at this stage, there might be an outlier, but this time everyone is evenly spaced. The community view has got complicated, because the 4 teams make eight communities. The four countries are their own communities but four teams are also their own communities. They are West Ham in a sort of dark green, Bayern Munich who are an orangey pink, Brentford who are a mauve-ish purple and Atletico Madrid who are a slightly darker blue that is hard to tell apart from England blue (sorry about that). 

The club team closest to the centre are West Ham, Bayer Leverkusen or RB Leipzig. 

There's a real mix of teams with the most representatives still in, but Real Madrid have the most. This is what the list looks like: 

Real Madrid = 7 

Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain = 6 

Barcelona, Arsenal, Real Sociedad, Manchester City = 5 

I'm not even going to try to predict the semifinals from this.

Euro 2024 Network Diagrams - Quarterfinals

Okay, so Austria are out, as I suspected they would be. 

For the second Euros in a row, a team they beat in the group stage has gone further than them. But at least it took this absolute stunner of a save for Turkey to beat Austria - https://x.com/EURO2024/status/1808266570327634063 

Of the clear predictions, the diagram was 4/4, and the diagram was part of why I wasn't surprised by Italy or Austria's losses. (I have a series of theories about why the UK press always underestimates Turkey, they are all rude.) 

So, what does the diagram look like now? As expected, the outlying teams all lost, so there's now only the central core teams left. 

Looking at the unlabelled diagram, the central clump is now not as clumped, and one team sticks out to the right.  Labelled, it looks like this: France are the team closest to the centre, while AC Milan are the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most representatives left are Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain with 10, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Manchester City with 9, then Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool with 7 (stop giggling back there about that linkage). 

Inter Milan have been significantly reduced, not just because of Italy going out but also because they had several players in other teams that have been eliminated. 

All the teams are their own community in the community views.  

I can understand why Inter Milan are French in the community view, what with Italy going out, but Manchester City and Manchester United being Portuguese intrigues me. 

Predictions from this (and the reason why I'm writing this while watching the election coverage so it's out before tomorrow): 

Spain vs Germany - Diagram says Germany, just 

Portugal vs France - Diagram says France 

England vs Switzerland - too close to call 

Netherlands vs Turkey - Diagram says Netherlands (this one is the one I think could be an upset. This Turkey team have a vibe.)

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Now the group stage community views

I described the group stage diagram as looking like a peacock (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/06/15/euro-2024-network-diagram-only-a-day-late/), and I'm amazed how many of the peacock tail survived. Well done Georgia and Romania in particular. 

My prediction for who would go out was Albania, Slovenia, Romania, Georgia, Ukraine and Scotland, then Slovakia and Hungary, with Poland or Austria in place of one of Romania, Slovakia or Ukraine. I was right for 5/8, which I could as going okay. I also hadn't expected Belgium to turn the Group of Cuddly into the Group of Sickos.

 

The network graphs for the last 16 look like this:  The central core are still there (mostly, really wasn't expecting Croatia to go out), with four teams trailing out to the right. Labelled, it looks like this: Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Georgia being so far away from the main core highlights how much of a surprise their going through to the last 16 is. 

Because of the odd weighting, identifying the central team is less valuable than usual. Italy are the national team closest to the centre, and Juventus are the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most players left in are Inter Milan and Paris Saint-Germain with 12, then Manchester City with 11, then Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona 10.

The community view looks like this:    Now each team is it's own community. 

Predictions, as requested by L. 

Spain vs Georgia - diagram says Spain 

Germany vs Denmark - no clear winner on the diagram 

Portugal vs Slovenia - diagram says Portugal 

France vs Belgium - diagram says France 

Romania vs Netherlands - diagram says Netherlands 

Austria vs Turkey - no clear winner on the diagram (I will be crossing my fingers and avoiding the match) 

England vs Slovakia - diagram says England 

Switzerland vs Italy - no clear winner on the diagram 

That central core is tightly packed, which is what's led to that uncertainty.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Now the group stage community views

Because I was trying to race the start of the Euros with my diagrams, I didn't add the community view.

They're below and are quite busy.    There are 20 communities for 24 teams. 

Belgium and Denmark share a community because both teams have players that play for Anderlecht. France and Portugal share a community because of their Paris Saint Germain players.  

Then there's Albania and Croatia, and despite almost being on opposite sides of the diagram, Austria and Hungary are one group.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Only a day late

(Stuff, still happening. Everything, still late.) 

So after OMG! 12 years of doing this, I know what shape I am expecting from this sort of thing. 

I am expecting a central tight core, surrounded by others (like the diagram below).  

Now sometimes, the cluster is shifted and tighter at one point rather than the centre, like at the Women's World Cup 2023 (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/07/22/womens-world-cup-2023-group-stage-network-diagrams/), but what I didn't expect is what this one looks like. 

I've made a simplified description below because having 24 teams with 26* players each makes the diagram really busy. (* Except France and Belgium, because ... actually does anyone know why?)  

So there's one cluster, and the other, less connected, teams splay out like a peacock's tail.

This is what the real one looks like:    The same diagram, but now labelled, which only makes it busier.  

It does make identifying the central team less worthwhile than usual. 

That team are Italy. 

Turkey are a lot closer to the cluster centre than I expected. 

One of Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur and Atletico Madrid are the club team closest to the centre. 

The clubs with the most representatives are Inter Milan and Manchester City with 13. The come Real Madrid, Barcelona and Paris Saint Germain with 12, the Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig with 11. 

Interestingly, a lot of Barcelona and Real Madrid players are not playing for Spain and we've definitely moved on from the days where Spanish players played for either one or the other. 

I am not even getting into the whole thing about 3 different club teams all being Red Bull teams (not least because I have a whole post about it here - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/03/29/in-which-we-know-that-uefa-wont-do-anything-about-dual-ownership-but-a-girl-can-dream/). 

Prediction: From the diagram, I think the 8 teams that will be eliminated will be Albania, Slovenia, Romania, Georgia, Ukraine and Scotland, then Slovakia and Hungary. 

You'll note that includes none of the group D teams, supporting the theory that it really is a group of Death!!! I suspect one of Poland and Austria will be out instead of Ukraine. Group E more like the group of cuddly if you're Belgium.

Haaland or Bug: Comparing Haaland's stats to Shearer, Kane and Salah

As promised in the update post comparing Shearer, Kane and Salah (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/02/14/the-king-his-heir-apparentand-the-pharaoh-waiting-in-the-wings-shearer-kane-and-salah-games-and-goals-per-season-updated-to-the-end-of-the-2022-2023-season/), here is what the the figures look like with Haaland added. 

I'd like to tip my hat to Ted Knutson (@mixedknuts on twitter, other microblogging platforms are available and I'm mostly at @kpfssport@mastodonapp.uk) for the concept of "something or bug", which came from the effect of that year that Burnley really outperformed expectations on Statsbomb’s analyses. Burnley’s data was so different to everyone else’s that after every analysis they had to check whether any outlier was a bug or just Burnley being Burnley. 

I strongly suspected that Erling Haaland's goalscoring stats would have that effect on my graphs but he had such a good first season in the Premiership that I couldn't really say no to L's suggestion when he said "why don't you add Haaland's stats to the analysis?". 

I was right to think Haaland's numbers were going to do terrible, terrible things to my graphs. 

First of all, he's so young that for actual data, there's only numbers up to age 22. For percentage of games played, that makes the data look wild. The percentage of games young players play varies so much depending on circumstance, things like depth of talent at their club, whether they've been loaned out to another club to get some seasoning, whether the coach wants to build them up slowly. So many variables, so it's really messy when you look at data from that age.

That variability is most clearly seen in Kane's graph, which is upside down compared to the others. Because there's so little real data, the extrapolation in the graph to end of career, 35 years of age because that's when Shearer stopped, particularly effects Haaland's numbers. On the other hand, the extrapolation is needed because everyone's numbers go up after 22.    

I think that explains why Haaland's numbers drop so quickly in this graph and I think that'll steady itself with another year's data. I mean, according to this, his numbers max out at 24 and, barring injury (and may he be kept from those) that doesn't reflect footballing truth. 

The goals per game up to the oldest point all four players have reached is another one bent and mangled by lack of data. That's two upside down curves versus two right way up curves, because of the extrapolation needed because Haaland started in the adult leagues earlier than the others. 

Also, this was all while Salah was still a winger, which explains his low numbers. 

On the other hand, you can imagine the nonsense extrapolation makes of Haaland's numbers if you send them forward to him being 35.

Behold, the nonsense:    According to the nonsense, Haaland stops scoring at 26. Again, may he be kept from injury, that is clear nonsense. 

For goals per possible game, up to the oldest age all of them have achieved, we're back in the land of the banana curve, due to extrapolation. Again, it's Kane and Shearer who are banana shaped, and Salah's goals per possible game is lower than everyone else's because he was still a winger. Again, Haaland's is that shape due to a lack of data. 

It'll be interesting to see the shape of his curve change next year.

The King; his Heir Apparent…and The Pharaoh waiting in the wings

Shearer, Kane and Salah, games and goals per season, updated to the end of the 2022-2023 season 

In the first post in the series I compared the games per season, goals per game and goals per possible game for Alan Shearer, the Premier League's all time top scorer, and Harry Kane and Mo Salah, the two players who had the best change of beating his record back in 2021 when L first had the idea. 

At the end of the post, I suggested two bits of future work; to update the stats at the end of each season, and to then look at Erling Haaland's numbers in comparison. This post covers the first of those two bits of future work, a second one with Haaland's data is in the works. 

Comparing Shearer, Kane and Salah using data up to the end of the 2022-2023 season 

Looking at percentage of games played in only up to the point where all 3 players are 29, it looks like this.  

It's now the Salah and Shearer curves that are the most similar. 

Shearer's curve is being brought down by the ankle injury when he was 27, while Salah's is being brought down by the relatively lower percentage of games he played last season. Possibly because Tottenham Hotspur relied so much on him, so played him a lot, Kane's curve is not dropping. 

If we use all the data from Shearer's career, and then extrapolate from the data available for up to 29 years of age for Kane and 30 for Salah the curves look like this: Salah's curve is really affected by the way the extrapolation handles the relatively few games he played at age 29, but the curve shape going forward is going to heavily depend on how many games he plays this year. 

Looking at goals per game, up to the age of 29, the curves look like this: The three curves are very similar to last year's. Shearer's is still brought down by the limited number of goals he could score at the age of 27 when he had an ankle injury, but you can also see him recovering from that, and the goals per game rising back up again. 

The different shape of Salah's curve reflects him being repurposed from a winger to a striker, while the other two have always been out and out strikers. 

If we look at all the data, the curves look like this: Previously, the shape of the curves was really different, with Shearer and Kane having parabolas and Salah's being a steadily rising straight line. The relative drop off in goals per game in the last two years for Salah is probably what's bending his curve now. 

Salah's curve still doesn't drop as much as the other two, possibly reflecting the steady rise after he switched from winger to striker. Kane's numbers are hurt by the dip in goals per game at the age of 28. 

The goals per possible game metric was added to account for Shearer's Newcastle having fewer games so less likelihood of him being rested. Up to age 29, it looks like this. Shearer and Kane's curves resemble each other, while Salah's is a completely different shape, again, an artefact of his role changing. 

If all the available data is used, it looks like this: This is one where there's been a major change, with Kane's curve no longer dropping like a stone, which it did last year (I still blame Antonio Conte). 

I think the changes show the value of continuing to look at this at the end of each season. Obviously a couple of things have happened this season which will affect these plots going forward; Kane moving to Bayern Munich and Salah missing some Liverpool games playing for Egypt at the African Cup of Nations. That hasn't affected Salah's numbers before but since he got injured, it may have a greater effect this time. 

Kane leaving for Bayern almost certainly means he won't break Shearer's record. I'll still look at his stats, because I've included Salah's Fiorentina spell in the stats, but I acknowledge it'll no longer be a direct comparison because of the difference between the English and German leagues. 

Salah is now the active Premiership player closest to Shearer's record, he's on 153 goals, while Shearer finished on 260. The next nearest active player on the list is Raheem Sterling on 120 goals.

Women's World Cup 2023 - Final Network Diagram

As you can all imagine, full working decorum was maintained at all time between the Australian and English offices for the entirety of Wednesday morning (UK time) and the company messaging system was full of GIFs flying in all directions. 

(We also have the rugby union and cricket World Cups where similar battlelines might be drawn.) 

The network diagrams now look like this: The club team closest to the centre are Manchester United. 

Because so many of Spain's players play in Real Madrid and Barcelona, but England have two players playing for Barcelona, England are slightly closer to the centre. 

Barcelona are the team with the most representatives in the final, with 10 players. Next are Real Madrid with 8 and Manchester City with 6. 

Manchester United and Barcelona link the two national teams, with Ona Batlle of Spain, and Mary Earps, Ella Toone, Katie Zelem and Alessia Russo of England playing for Manchester United and Irene Paredes, Aitana Bonmati, Mariona Caldenty, Alexia Putellas, Laia Codina, Maria Perez, Salma Paralluelo and Cata Coll of Spain and Lucy Bronze and Keira Walsh of England playing for Barcelona.

Once a tournament is down to two teams, the community view doesn't give a lot of information, but I'm including them here because it's quite pretty this time.  

I will be spending Sunday morning hiding from the match so I don't jinx England. I have been informed by colleagues that this is ridiculous. They will thank me if England win.

Women's World Cup 2023 - Semifinals Network Diagrams

In the predictions made in the last post, the diagram got 2/3 correct where there was a proper prediction.

Following the eliminations after the quarterfinals, the network diagrams now look like this:  

It's now sort of squished diamond shape, with most of the weight in the Australia, England and Sweden cluster at the bottom of the diamond. Spain are the team sticking out at the top. Sticking out is normally a bad sign for the next match, but Spain are Spain and are somehow doing well despite a whole lot of problems. 

England are the national team closest to the centre, with Chelsea (just about) being the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most representatives are Barcelona with 11 players left representing them, followed by Manchester City with 10 and then Chelsea and Real Madrid with 8. France going out wiped out the Paris Saint Germain and Lyon players (not totally, but not far short since it reduced them to 1 player left each). 

The community view is interesting, given there's 4 teams left and 5 communities. Arsenal are the mysterious 5th community, I think because they link 3 of the teams (Australia, Sweden and England). 

As for the diagram's predictions for the semifinals, they are as follows: 

Sweden vs Spain - diagram probably says Sweden, football knowledge says Spain. The diagram has been mysteriously right about Sweden so far but I don't think it can continue. 

England vs Australia - knowledge (esp. since Australia are at home) says "dunno", diagram says England just.

Women's World Cup 2023 - Quarterfinal Network Visualisations

I start with an admission: of the predictions I made in my last post except for the USA vs Sweden match, where the diagram disagreed with footballing knowledge, the diagram was wrong. 

But I'm still going to carry on making the network diagrams because I enjoy it and because they look pretty. 

The community views look particularly pretty this time, but let's start with the usual network diagrams that look at the links between teams.   

The club team closest to the centre is Manchester United, while France and England are the national teams closest to the centre. 

Denmark and Norway being eliminated has broken up the Nordic+Australia pack at the bottom. There's now a cluster of 5 teams (Netherlands, France, England, Sweden and Australia) with Spain and Colombia sticking up and Japan sticking out at the bottom. 

The club teams with the most representatives are Manchester City (with 12 players representing them), then Real Madrid and Barcelona (with 11) and Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain (with 9). 

As I mentioned, the community views are very pretty.  

There are 8 teams left, who are now each their own community. 

For the quarterfinals, the diagram's predictions are as follows: 

Spain vs Netherland - Knowledge and diagram says "ooooooh" because that should be a good match. 

Japan vs Sweden - Diagram says Sweden, knowledge says Japan, Japan's players tending not to play overseas, is a thing, and that will affect the diagram. 

Australia vs France - Diagram says France, Knowledge says France are mis-firing but have depths of talent and are mercurial France! vs home town Australia so, who knows. 

England vs Colombia - Diagram and knowledge say England, although they've been making tough work of it so far.