Wednesday 13 March 2024

Formula 1 2024 - Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

No changes to the bingo card. 

On the other hand, more evidence that Ferrari are cursed. Last race, one car had weird brakes, this race, one driver had an emergency appendectomy. Honestly worried about what Australia will bring. 

The most important thing is that Sainz jnr is healthy and well (and remarkably up and about). 

The understudy wasn't bad :) 

Not sure I quite understand the people saying they're Ferrari fans and wondering why Ferrari are going with Hamilton not Bearman. Mostly it makes me feel like this

via GIPHY

(GIF of Bane from the Dark Knight Rises saying "But you merely adopted the dark; I was born in it, moulded by it.") 

When have Ferrari ever put a rookie in the car (permanently)? It's not the Ferrari way. They loan them out for a couple of years to any team that they give engines to and then see how they do. You don't want a rookie learning not to do *that* in a Ferrari that's supposed to be fighting for the Constructors' Title (accent on that supposed to be with a vengeance). 

And oddly, you'll notice Hamilton's contract finishes just in time for Bearman to have been seasoned at probably Haas. 

In terms of racing, the Saudi Grand Prix was a dud, with most of the excitement coming in the KMag Zone, an area of a Viking rage, determination, chaos and 20 seconds worth of penalties. 

That takes doing Kevin!

Saturday 9 March 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 3 and the season to date

Saints beat Leigh 12 - 4 in what I believe would be best described as an arm-wrestle (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/68438335 / https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-leigh-leopards-2024-03-01/). 

Matters were helped by not having Saints players subbed off injured like last time and John Asiata getting sin binned. 

Looking at game 3 in isolation:

This is how many point-scoring moments players were present for.Bar chart showing how many point-scoring moments Saints players were present for.  Wingfield, Whitley, Welsby, Percival, Makinson, Lomax, Hurrell, Dodd, Delaney, Bennison and Bell were present for all 4, Mbye and Matautia for 3, Sironen and Clark were present for 2. 

It's nice to see Mbye getting some game time. 

The game 3 dendrogram shows the same pattern: The top cluster is Mbye and Matautia, followed by the largest cluster of Wingfield, Whitley, Welsby, Percival, Makinson, Lomax, Hurrell, Dodd, Delaney, Bennison and Bell and then the bottom cluster of Sironen and Clark. The matrix shows the same, but with top and bottom swapped:   The top, palest, cluster is Sironen and Clark, followed by the largest cluster of Wingfield, Whitley, Welsby, Percival, Makinson, Lomax, Hurrell, Dodd, Delaney, Bennison and Bell and then the bottom cluster of Mbye and Matautia. Mbye and Matautia and Sironen and Clark not sharing time makes sense, given its a forward and a hooker and another forward and a hooker. 

Now, the season to date:

This is how many point-scoring moments players were present for:
   <lj-cut text="Bar chart showing how many point-scoring moments Saints players were present for.  Whitley, Welsby, Makinson and Dodd have been present for all 25.  Then Sironen on 22, Clark and Blake for 21, Percival for 18, Bell for 17, Hurrell 16, Wingfield, Delaney and Bennison for 13, Lees for 12, Walmsley and Matautia 11, Knowles for 5, Davies for 4 and Mbye for 3"> Operation "Wrap Percival in Cotton Wool" is very apparent. Sironen is doing more minutes than I realised. 

Now looking at the actual scorers and when they scored:
  Coloured bar chart of who scored when.  A pleasingly gaussian curve, with the centre at 51 and 52 minutes 
I just think it's pretty. 

Percival, despite everything, had the most point-scoring moments with 8, then Makinson with 4, Whitley and Welsby on 3, then Walmsley, Matautia, Lomax, Knowles, Dodd, Clark and Bennison on 1. 

The dendrogram is now a lot more complicated. The present for all points cluster of Lomax, Dodd, Makinson, Welsby and Whitley is together.  All the others are separate. That complication is reflected in the matrix, where there's now a block of solid purple, the red, then the mixed part which is the players who sub on and off frequently, then the very top, palest rows, which are the players who haven't played often (yet). The purple section of players who most often play together is Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd.  The next most frequently together red group are Sironen, Blake and Clark.  The mixed section as I called it are Percival, Hurrell, Bell, Lees, Delaney, Bennison, Wingfield, Matautia and Walmsley.  The least played so far section at the top is Knowles, Mbye and Davies. The network graph for the season is 17, which is a nice number for a squad. The central section is Bell, Welsby, Lomax, Clark, Dodd, Whitley, Sironen, Blake, Percival.  The outer ring are, clockwise, Hurrell, Lees, Bennison, Matautia, Wingfield, Delaney and Walmsley. The Saints defence conceded against Leigh. Having only conceded two point-scoring moments in three games (versus creating 25 point-scoring moments), it feels petty to name players present. One interesting pattern, on an N of 2 mind you, is that both points were conceded in minutes 40-50 (44 and 46 to be precise). That's just after half time so I'm wondering if it's Saints not being fully switched on when they first come back. 

Or I'm being hyper-critical and impossible. Which is very possible.

Friday 8 March 2024

Formula 1 2024 - Bahrain Grand Prix

Going back to the bingo cards seems a little churlish since Ferrari, solidly the second best team. 

On the other hand, one car had brakes that both stopped and shunted the car to the right, and Ferrari are 25 seconds behind the fastest Red Bull (and 3 second behind the second Red Bull). 

There was also the opportunity to reshuffle the bingo card and add a couple of fresh squares.

Behold the bingo card:
   Bingo-card-start Taking a positive from Bahrain, at least the Red Bulls aren't 50 points ahead ... yet. 

And despite their on-going attempts to cause me to shriek in public (because I watched the race in a Walkabout), at least the Ferraris didn't hit each other. 

I fear this season is going to be a lot of finding of tiny victories while Red Bull take all the big ones.

Saturday 2 March 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 2 and the season to date

This is the second post in my 2024 Super League data visualisation project (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/category/saints-ahoy-rugby-league-project-2024/). Yes, I know I'm two days late, but there was a work trip in midweek 

Included will be the game 2 visualisations, and the visualisations covering games 1 and 2. What there won't be is the defensive visualisations, because Saints kept Huddersfield to nil in the game (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/match/EVP4369771), so there's still only one data point there. 

As a Saints fan, this pleases me immensely. I'm fully behind "Saints, the entertainers" but a lot of that flair comes naturally (The Saints Way etc), so defensive solidity is a nice addition. The best Saints teams have combined both. 

A fuller report on the Saints vs Huddersfield match can be found here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/huddersfield-giants-v-saints-2024-02-24/ 

The game 2 dendrogram again shows that central core of players who play most of the game, the prop swaps, and that Saints are continuing the policy of wrapping Percival up in cotton wool once the game is won. I still approve. Dendrogram, all the useful information is in the description above. This time, Walmsley was the one with the short stint at the start. Which suggests that it's strategic, not injury related (despite the news about Matty Lees coughing up blood - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/02/26/medical-update-on-matty-lees/)
 
Line chart showing when players were on the pitch when Saints scored Line chart showing when players were on the pitch when Saints scored.  Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Lees, Dodd, Clark, Blake, Bennison and Knowles played the whole match, Percival was taken off around 50 minutes, Wingfield and Matautia came on later on, Bell did a stint in the middle and Walmsley had a mini-cameo at the start.

Game 2 Matrix diagram
Dark purple cluster of Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Lees, Dodd, Clark, Bennison and Blake. Percival is the darkest orange but separated from them because he left the pitch early.  Knowles, Matautia and Wingfield are the next shade down, reflecting the rolling substitutions, then Bell, then Walmsley the palest, reflecting his single stint. The darkest cluster are Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Lees, Dodd, Clark, Bennison and Blake who played the whole game. Percival is the darkest orange but separated from them because he left the pitch early. Knowles, Matautia and Wingfield are the next shade down, reflecting the rolling substitutions, then Bell, then Walmsley the palest, reflecting his single stint. There are fewer players in the network diagram than last time (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/02/21/saints-ahoy-rugby-league-data-visualisation-2024/)

The network diagram:   Whitley is in the centre of the diagram, surrounded by (starting at 12 if it was clock) Sironen, Makinson, Welsby, Lomax, Bennison, Lees, Blake, Clark and Dodd. 

I hadn't realised how central Whitley was, but I can believe it. 

If we look at the combined data sets they look like this. 

Season to date data visualisations 

Who scored points for Saints - with the note that it's point-scoring moments, not number of points. Percival has the most with 6, followed by Whitley and Makinson on 3, then Welsby on 2.  Walmsley, Matautia, Lomax, Knowles, Dodd, Clark and Bennison are on one. Despite being taken off early, and all the missed conversions which will undoubtedly haunt us come the big matches, Percival has had the most point-scoring moments.

Combined dendrogram:   Wingfield and Matautia are their own mini-cluster at the top.  Then Lees and Bennison, then Knowles on his own.  There is a central cluster of Dodd, Blake, Lomax, Makinson, Sironen, Welsby, Whitley, with Clark dangling off to the side.  Then there is Percival, who is there for all the point-scoring moments until he gets subbed off at 50 minutes.  Then Walmsley and Hurrell make a mini-cluster, with Bell dangling off, then Davies and Delaney. There are some clear prop clusters, Wingfield and Mata'utia, Walmsley, Hurrell and Bell. The Davies and Delaney cluster is pleasing to see because it suggests they're slowly blooding them in. It looks like the spine of the team are Dodd, Blake, Lomax, Makinson, Sironen, Welsby, Whitley and Clark. 

Percival is there for all the point-scoring moments until he gets subbed off at 50 minutes. 

This pattern is also seen in the matrix diagram Dark purple cluster of Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Clark and Blake.  Next darkest are orange are Percival and Bell.  Then Hurrell.  The next palest are Hurrell, Lees and Walmsley.  Then Bennison, Wingfield and Delaney.  Then Matautia.  The palest colours are Davies and Knowles. The matrix reflects the dendrogram, but you can also see some interesting patterns, like Bell and Knowles not playing together, Hurrell playing less with Lees, Bennison and Knowles and so on. These patterns will both strengthen during the season and might get more mixed up as injuries (and suspensions) take their toll. 

The network diagram looks like this: There are two rings of players.  The central one contains (from the top) Dodd, Clark, Makinson, Welsby, Blake, Sironen, Lomax and Whitley.  Percival lies just slightly outside this ring.  Then the second ring, which surrounds the first, contains Wingfield, Matautia, Delaney, Walmsley, Hurrell, Bell, Bennison and Lees. 

It's interesting that two games in there's already a clear central core and then a secondary ring. 

Will have the data from the Leigh game inputted when I get an hour to spare.