Saturday 13 December 2014

Top 10 Films 2014

This only counts films I've seen at the cinema and were released in 2014.  Because otherwise M would win hands down. (14/12/12 Edit - For various reasons, I have chosen to reverse the positions of Edge of Tomorrow and Charlie Countryman.  More details later.)

1 - Grand Budapest Hotel
2 - Nightcrawler
3 - The Zero Theorem
4 - X-Men: Days of Future Past
5 - Edge of Tomorrow
6 - The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman
7 - Hercules
8 - Guardians of the Galaxy
9 - How To Train Your Dragon 2
10 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler and the Zero Theorem are miles above the others.  I am not convinced that Hercules is actually any good but it might as well have been written for me.  Edge of Tomorrow would be higher up if it hadn't been for the ending.

I still haven't seen Interstellar, and am unlikely to before the 31st of December so if it's any good it'll go on next year's list.

Sunday 23 November 2014

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton4/5Nico Rosberg4/5Nico Rosberg4/5
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.80Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet18

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets£11.33Season Total £1 bets£24.75Season Total £1 bets£4.33
Season Total £10 bets£113.26Season Total £10 bets£247.55Season Total £10 bets£43.28

Thursday 20 November 2014

The Double Points Nonsense

I think the title might give away what I think of having double points for the last race.  I think it distorts the competition excessively.

To prove this, I thought I'd look to see what would have happened in previous years if this points system had been in place.  I've only looked at the years where the present 25, 18, ... points system has been in place but I might look at earlier years later on.  Mostly in the hope that it might mean there's an alternate universe where Felipe Massa has a World Drivers Title.

2013:

Going into the last race, which was the Brazilian GP in 2013, Sebastian Vettel already had an unassailable lead, as did Red Bull.  So no change.

2012:

Before the last race of the season, Brazil again, Vettel led the points standings by 13 points from Fernando Alonso, and more than the 50 points max from everyone else.  Red Bull were 73 points ahead of Ferrari in the constructor's title, and more than the 86 points max from everyone else.

Alonso finished 2nd in the race, which would have netted him 36 points with the double points system, while Vettel finished 6th (8 points).  This is enough for Alonso to overhaul Vettel and win the championship.

The Ferraris finished 2nd and 3rd while the Red Bulls finished 4th and 6th.  Red Bull have enough of an advantage to win the constructor's title.

New result: Fernando Alonso is the winner of the 2012 World Drivers Title, winning his 3rd World title.

2011:

Going into the last race, which was the Brazilian GP in 2011, Sebastian Vettel already had an unassailable lead, as did Red Bull.  So no change.

2010:

Alonso goes into the last race (Abu Dhabi) with an eight point lead over Webber, 15 over Vettel, 24 over Hamilton and 47 over Button.  Vettel still wins the Driver's World Championship.

Red Bull go into the last race with a 48 point lead over McLaren and 80 over Ferrari.  Red Bull still win the World Drivers Championship.  Amazingly, no change.

Contrary to my expectations, the double points thing didn't make that much of a difference to most of the result.  I still think it's a bad idea but apparently good will out.

Monday 10 November 2014

Brazilian Grand Prix


Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Nico Rosberg7/4Nico Rosberg13/8Nico Rosberg5/4
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£2.75Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£2.62Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£2.25
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
£27.50
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£26.25Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£22.50
Season Total £1 bets£9.53Season Total £1 bets£25.75Season Total £1 bets£5.33
Season Total £10 bets£95.26Season Total £10 bets£257.55Season Total £10 bets£53.28

Tuesday 4 November 2014

United States Grand Prix

Sorry for not updating the previous one sooner.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton8/15Lewis Hamilton1/1Nico Rosberg1/1
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.53Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£2Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
£15.33
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£20Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets£6.78Season Total £1 bets£23.13Season Total £1 bets£3.08
Season Total £10 bets£67.76Season Total £10 bets£231.30Season Total £10 bets£30.78

Friday 31 October 2014

Russian Grand Prix

Which if the BBC preview with Seb Vettel was accurate should be interesting.  It looks like a nice circuit.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton4/6Lewis Hamilton2/5Lewis Hamilton2/5
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.67Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.40Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.40
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
£16.67
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£14Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£14
Season Total £1 bets£5.25Season Total £1 bets£21.13Season Total £1 bets£4.08
Season Total £10 bets£52.43Season Total £10 bets£211.30Season Total £10 bets£40.78

Monday 6 October 2014

Book Review - Pox: Genius, Madness, and the Mysteries of Syphilis by Deborah Hayden

Normal people don't give books about syphilis to their friends for their birthdays.  Then again, normal people don't then go on to write book reports about books about syphilis so I think L and I are equally weird.

Mostly Pox: etc left me curiously unsatisfied.  It's not that I believe or disbelieve that various historical figures had syphilis (although I'm highly unconvinced by the Schumann chapter), it's the author's methods I have issues with.  Syphilis is referred to throughout as the 'great imitator' and yet most of the time, other suggestions for what could be the cause of the symptoms shown in each "case" are not mentioned, never mind being discussed and shown to be unlikely.  The one exception to this is the chapter about Hitler where the discussion about the symptoms he had that resembled Parkinson's disease is ended with "just because he had Parkinson's doesn't mean he didn't have syphilis."  Which is a fair enough point, but when you're claiming all the symptoms are due to syphilis, it's a bit rich.

The symptoms are another problem.  A list of them is in appendix A.  Not only would I have preferred them earlier in the book, but they're so spectacularly vague and at the same time, wide-ranging.  Do not give this book to a hypochondriac who has ever had sex because they will convince themselves they have syphilis.

The other problem is that a lot of the symptoms resemble those of heavy metal poisoning, particularly mercury poisoning.  Now quite obviously, being poisoned by mercury doesn't rule out having syphilis, especially given that mercury was used as a treatment for syphilis, but it was also used as a treatment for a great many other things.

One of the other aims of the book was to examine how on-going syphilis, or more particularly the parts from secondary syphilis onwards, affected the work of the various "patients".  I have never really appreciated the idea of focusing on one aspect of an artist's life and using it to explain <i>everything</i> they've ever dine and I found this book had the same problem as most works in this vein.  It takes the attitude that this one thing explains all the great masterworks (and excuses the drivel) but never mentions the average.  If having syphilis was so much on the minds of Oscar Wilde and James Joyce that it was their idée fixe when they wrote the Picture of Dorian Gray and Ulysses, then why was it not on their minds when they wrote other things?

(There's a highly cryptic remark about Nora Joyce "but the future of another woman he met that month, his life partner and the mother of his children, Nora Barnacle, is known." (pp 241) Now, I've given her a quick wiki and can see no sign on that of doom and dread, so I'm none the wiser.  Does anyone have any idea what they could be referring to?)

Hayden does something quite clever by interleaving the "known cases" where the suffer has made admission of their disease with the "suspected" cases.  I recognise a good rhetorical trick when I see one, because it enables you to go, 'see how x had the same symptoms as y, and we know x had syphilis, so y *must* have had it too' without quite being so blunt about it.

I've left the Hitler chapter till last for a reason.  One, no matter how well researched the rest of it is, you get a distinct feeling that the author was working up to that chapter, it being 54 pages, when the next longest (about Oscar Wilde) is 29 pages.  Now there's perfectly good and sound reasons to stop after the Hitler chapter, because the book is mostly chronologically ordered, and after 1945 penicillin became available as a treatment for syphilis, reducing the number of people affected in total and almost entirely preventing tertiary syphilis from developing.  Two, I can't actually compete with the criticism that Hayden, to her credit, includes in her book, which says it is unfair, "to put the whole weight of the holocaust on the frail shoulders of that poor woman of the streets if she ever existed."  (Pox pp 257, which gives a reference to Ron Rosenbaum 'Explaining Hitler' pp 197)  Because it does seem to be a rather simple-minded attempt to explain Hitler's hatred of Jews so that it makes sense, rather than being a product of the times.  Because obviously, if there was a reason, it can't happen again, right?!  Three, she quite often cites David Irving, without mentioning his lies on some other World War 2 related issues.  We're talking about a man who was described by a high court judge as someone who "for his own ideological reasons persistently and deliberately misrepresented and manipulated historical evidence." (Mr. Justice Charles Gray, Irving v Penguin Books Limited, Deborah E. Lipstadt)  I'm just going to suggest that, if possible, you find someone else to cite.

So yeah, I may have had issues with that chapter too.

In short, it's a lovingly crafted, well-written book, with excellent sourcing and footnoting, with the exception of David Irving, but I feel it's rather too hasty to make it cases without providing a bedrock in some of the "maybe" cases.

Saturday 4 October 2014

Japanese Grand Prix

Slightly late, but that's because 5 am is a time I don't recognise.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton10/11Nico Rosberg11/10Nico Rosberg11/10
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.91Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
£19.09
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets£3.58Season Total £1 bets£19.73Season Total £1 bets£2.68
Season Total £10 bets£35.76Season Total £10 bets£197.30Season Total £10 bets£26.78

Sunday 21 September 2014

Singapore Grand Prix

I am going to ignore the false hope Ferrari have given me after the first practise session on Friday. I know it will not lead to anything good.

Edited to add: I was right to ignore the false hope.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton4/5Fernando Alonso20/1Lewis Hamilton4/6
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.80Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.67
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
£18
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£16.67
Season Total £1 bets£1.67Season Total £1 bets£20.73Season Total £1 bets£3.68
Season Total £10 bets£16.67Season Total £10 bets£207.30Season Total £10 bets£36.78

Monday 8 September 2014

Italian Grand Prix

Obviously I'm only betting invisible money (hence no tax being taken off) but with the Rosberg vs Hamilton situation, I'm really starting to see why betting is a mug's game.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Nico Rosberg9/4Lewis Hamilton1/2Lewis Hamilton1/2
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.50Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.50
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£15Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£15
Season Total £1 bets-£0.13Season Total £1 bets£21.73Season Total £1 bets£2.01
Season Total £10 bets-£1.33Season Total £10 bets£217.30Season Total £10 bets£20.11

Monday 25 August 2014

Belgian Grand Prix

It's Spa time again :D

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton8/11Valtteri Bottas25/1Nico Rosberg5/4
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
-£10
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets£0.87Season Total £1 bets£20.23Season Total £1 bets£0.51
Season Total £10 bets£8.67Season Total £10 bets£202.30Season Total £10 bets£5.11

Tuesday 29 July 2014

Hungarian Grand Prix



Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton1/2Lewis Hamilton16/1Nico Rosberg1/3
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.5Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£17Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
£15
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£170Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets£1.87Season Total £1 bets£21.23Season Total £1 bets£1.51
Season Total £10 bets£18.67Season Total £10 bets£212.30Season Total £10 bets£15.11


Unfortunately, I was only able to get the values for Saturday practise after qualifying where Hamilton had his oops.  This may skew the values somewhat.

Sunday 20 July 2014

German Grand Prix

I still miss old Hockenheim.  I know I say that every time F1 visits new Hockenheim but it remains true.  The new track is a ruination.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton4/6Nico Rosberg6/4Nico Rosberg1/3
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£2.50Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.33
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£25Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£13.33
Season Total £1 bets£0.37Season Total £1 bets£4.23Season Total £1 bets£2.51
Season Total £10 bets£3.67Season Total £10 bets£42.30Season Total £10 bets£25.11


Tuesday 15 July 2014

World Cup Final Interconnectivity Diagram

The normal interconnectivity diagram is not all that interesting, since all it really tells us is that Bayern Munich had the most players in the World Cup final (7), followed by Borussia Dortmund (4) and Manchester City (3).  The only teams guaranteed to have a player on the winning side were Real Madrid and Lazio.

What is interesting is the community view:

The vast majority of the German players are in one group, as are the vast majority of the Argentine players.  Real Madrid and Lazio (and attached players) are their own groups, but so are the Arsenal players, poor concussed Christoph Kramer, Ziegler of Borussia Mönchengladbach, Andre Schürle and the Schalke boys for Germany, and the Boca Junior players, the solitary Catana player, Basanta of Monteray, Lavezzi and Romero of Monaco.  I don't understand the algorithm well enough to understand why those players get turned into their own communities while, say, Ginter of Freiburg (also the only player representing that team) doesn't.

Tuesday 8 July 2014

Semi-Final Predictions

Brazil vs Germany:

If this was Brazil, on home turf, with Thiago Silva and Neymar, I'd have no issue with saying Brazil to win.  Even without Silva, I'd still be tempted, but without Neymar, I can't see them doing it, not against what it a particularly grim and determined German team.

Argentina vs Netherlands:

Even without Di Maria, Messi might be able to drag Argentina through, especially if Higuaín has finally remembered how to play football.  But this is a pretty solid Dutch team, and if anyone can think a team's way to victory it is the evil genius van Gaal.

Somehow, I fear something that was set up perfectly to produce Brazil vs Argentina at the Maracanã, is going to wind up being Germany vs the Netherlands.  The death of European football may have been grossly exaggerated.

Monday 7 July 2014

World Cup Semi-Finals Interconnectivity Diagram



Germany are the nearest team to the middle, but it's not a particularly clear middle (as you can see). It's interesting how inter-related Brazil and Argentina are, despite how few of their players play in their own home leagues.

The team nearest the middle are Bayern Munich, who are also the team with the most players remaining, with 9 players left.  Bayern are also the only team who are guaranteed to have a player in the final, since as well as the various Germans, Dante also plays for them.  Chelsea and Feynoord are the teams with the next most players left, with 5 each.

When you look at the community view


the four countries are all separate communities.  Amusingly, Real Madrid and Lazio are also their own separate communities, possibly because they link different countries.

Sunday 6 July 2014

British Grand Prix

After the first set of results where one of our betting strategies has led to an overall loss of money over the season, we come to the British Grand Prix.  I'll do my best to get this done properly but I'm at a wedding for all of tomorrow so there may be issues.


Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton4/6Sebastian Vettel18/1Nico Rosberg8/11
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.67Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£16.67

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets£1.37Season Total £1 bets£1.73Season Total £1 bets£1.18
Season Total £10 bets£13.67Season Total £10 bets£17.30Season Total £10 bets£11.78

Thursday 3 July 2014

World Cup Quarter Final Predictions

France vs Germany - If nothing else, it ought to be a good watch.  My heart says Germany, my head says France.  Because Germany looked decidedly wobbly against Algeria, while France don't seem to have a defence at all.

Brazil vs Colombia - I've been less impressed by Colombia than everyone else, so I think Brazil will edge it, but it might be close.

Argentina vs Belgium - It really ought to be Argentina, even if they have just been squeaking by.  Mostly because I think their squeaking has been marginally more impressive than Belgium's squeaking.

Netherlands vs Costa Rica - Netherlands because Costa Rica had a much longer match vs Greece and had the added stress of a penalty shoot-out.  Plus they're short one of their starting defenders due to his red card in the Greece match.  That being said, I suspect it might be like the Mexico team where the Netherlands are on the back foot for most of the match only to seize victory at the last minute.

2014 World Cup Quarter Finals Interconnectivity Diagram

The diagram now looks like this:

Nearest national to the middle = Belgium, although majority of the teams are shifted to the left, because of the connections between Germany, France, Belgium, Brazil and Argentina, and the lack of connections from those to Costa Rica.  I blame Chelsea ;)

The nearest club team is probably Zulte Waregem.

In the community view, all the national teams are separate (and it looks quite pretty).

Bayern Munich continue to have the most players represented (10), now followed by Arsenal (7) and Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea (6).


Friday 27 June 2014

Second Round Predictions

No post-mortems on England or Italy, mostly because I'm still writing those posts ;)


  1. Brazil vs Chile - I can't see past Brazil for this one.  I can see it being a scrappy match and a narrow win but I think Brazil are going to win.
  2. Colombia vs Uruguay - I think Colombia are going to win.  They've been a good, solid team, and Uruguay are without their main man (Cavani not having been at his best in this World Cup).  But, and this is a big but, if any team are going to be able to finagle a win in these circumstances, it's going to be Uruguay.
  3. Netherlands vs Mexico - Despite wanting Mexico to win (for student P, if for no other reason), I think Netherlands are going to win.  But that's only if they can win in normal time.  If this goes to penalties, I think Mexico are going to win.
  4. Costa Rica vs Greece - Costa Rica ought to win.  By all that makes sense in football, it ought to be Costa Rica.  But I refuse to count Greece out because if ever there was a side who don't accept things like "making sense in football".
  5. France vs Nigeria - France.  Too much firepower and enough of a defense to withstand Nigeria's attack.
  6. Germany vs Algeria - Germany, same logic as for France.
  7. Argentina vs Switzerland - Should be Argentina, unless Messi can't produce some of his usual magic.
  8. Belgium vs USA - You know, the US could actually do this.  But then again, so could Belgium.  Belgium aren't so good that they can't be beaten, but then again, neither are the US.  The US have a player who can conjured up a moment of magic in Clint Dempsey but Belgium have a team who can stick to a task without deviation for 90 minutes.  It's a total coin toss.

2014 World Cup Second Round Interconnectivity Diagram

This is what the diagram looks like for the second round


Nearest club team to the middle = Arsenal.
Nearest national team to the middle = France (probably).
Teams with largest number of players = Bayern Munich (12), Napoli (9) and Porto (8).  Bayern have only lost 2 players, Mario Mandzukic and Javi Martinez.  Maybe there's something in the theory that having the title sown up early is easier on the players.  Then again, if that were the case, Manchester United wouldn't have had so many players drop out, although their case wasn't helped by so many of them being on the England team.

Amazingly the communities view shows each team as their own community.  I was expecting Belgium and France to bleed into each other.


Sunday 22 June 2014

Austrian Grand Prix

There are no words for how excited I am.  F1 back in Austria.  If nothing else, I'd like to thank Red Bull for this :D

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton8/13Valtteri Bottas8/1Felipe Massa10/3
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets-£0.30Season Total £1 bets£2.73Season Total £1 bets£2.18
Season Total £10 bets-£3.02Season Total £10 bets£27.30Season Total £10 bets£21.78

Saturday 21 June 2014

World Cup 2014 Group Stages Interconnectivity Diagram

These are as correct as wikipedia can manage.  All players have been shown as playing for the team for which they last made an appearance, so, for instance, Joel Campbell is shown as an Olympiacos player, even though he is only on loan for them from Arsenal.

The clubs with the most players are, oddly enough, Bayern Munich and Manchester United with 14 players each.  I say oddly because, well Bayern did well this season, but United really didn't.  The United players are from a wide spread of countries (4 from England, 2 from Spain and Belgium and 1 each for Mexico, Holland, Japan, Ecuador, France and Portugal), while Bayern had 7 from Germany, and 1 each from Brazil, Croatia, Holland, Spain, Switzerland, US and Belgium.

Each team has at least one team member playing in that country.  All countries except England and Russia have at least 1 player playing for a foreign club.  This leads to a very tight diagram, particularly in the middle.

The graph is a lot more cluttered that the Euro 2012 equivalent (http://fulltimesportsfan.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/finalised-diagram.html), possibly because there's a lot more teams, and possibly because teams in Spain and Italy (for example) have a lot more foreign players from South America and Africa than they do from other parts of Europe.

The communities view is too confused to interpret, because as well as the countries themselves, the clubs with lot of players represented appear as communities in and of themselves.

Sunday 8 June 2014

Canadian Grand Prix

Yay, my favourite grand prix of the season.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton2/5Lewis Hamilton4/5Nico Rosberg5/4
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets£0.70Season Total £1 bets£3.73Season Total £1 bets£3.18
Season Total £10 bets£6.98Season Total £10 bets£37.30Season Total £10 bets£31.78

Sunday 25 May 2014

Monaco Grand Prix


Fastest Friday Thursday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Fernando Alonso20/1Lewis Hamilton13/8Nico Rosberg8/13
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.62
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£16.15
Season Total £1 bets£1.70Season Total £1 bets£4.73Season Total £1 bets£4.18
Season Total £10 bets£16.98Season Total £10 bets£47.30Season Total £10 bets£41.78

Sunday 11 May 2014

Spanish Grand Prix

Once again, the values for Saturday practice and qualifying will be late (I'm fencing all day Saturday) so may not be accurate.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton2/5Nico Rosberg3/1Lewis Hamilton2/7
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.40Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.29
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£14

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£12.86
Season Total £1 bets£2.70Season Total £1 bets£5.73Season Total £1 bets£2.56
Season Total £10 bets£26.98Season Total £10 bets£57.30Season Total £10 bets£25.63


Wednesday 7 May 2014

World Cup Predictions

Because it's getting close to the World Cup time, and because @Tiberius_Jolly and I were bored, have our entirely unlikely to be accurate World Cup predictions:

Group A
Brazil & Cameroon

Group B
Spain & Chile

Group C
Colombia & Ivory Coast

Group D
England & Uruguay (Don't look at me, I got out-shouted by a maniac who thinks England are likely to go through on goal difference.)

Group E
France & Switzerland

Group F
Argentina & Nigeria (I'm backing Bosnia & Herzogovina as possible dark horses in this group.)

Group G
Germany & Portugal

Group H
Belgium & Russia (this relies on Russia not pulling a Euro 2012 and actually performing as well as they can.)

Then:

Brazil beats Chile
Uruguay beats Colombia
France beats Nigeria
Germany beats Russia
Spain beats Cameroon
England beats Ivory Coast
Argentina beats Switzerland
Portugal beats Belgium

Then:
Brazil beat Uruguay
Germany beats France
Spain beat England
Argentina beat Portugal (unless Ronaldo is Maradona)

Then:
Brazil beat Germany
Argentina/Portugal beats Spain

Then:
A final of Brazil  vs either Argentina (oooh) or Portugal

And if Portugal get to final, nevermind winning the thing, we have to actually start asking the Pele, Maradona or Ronaldo question.

Monday 21 April 2014

Chinese Grand Prix

The values for Saturday practice will be late (I'm fencing all day Saturday) so may not be accurate.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton8/11Lewis Hamilton4/9Lewis Hamilton4/9
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.73Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.44Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.44
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
£17.27
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£14.44Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£14.44
Season Total £1 bets£1.30Season Total £1 bets£6.73Season Total £1 bets£1.27
Season Total £10 bets£12.98Season Total £10 bets£67.30Season Total £10 bets£12.77


Sunday 6 April 2014

Bahrain Grand Prix



Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton4/7Lewis Hamilton2/7Nico Rosberg10/11
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.57Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.29Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
£15.71
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£12.86Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets-£0.43Season Total £1 bets£5.29Season Total £1 bets-£0.17
Season Total £10 bets-£4.29Season Total £10 bets£52.86Season Total £10 bets-£1.67

This is interesting.  At this point, admittedly only 3 races into a 19 Grand Prix season, only one of these betting strategies is in profit.  Possibly this is both because of Mercedes's dominance (and therefore the poor odds offered by the bookies) and the small size of the difference in performance between the two Mercedes.  If Nico Rosberg had beaten Hamilton in qualifying at Malaysia, the last column would look very different.  Obviously, the old 'if ifs and ands were pots and pans' applies, but I think the table would be very different in a team with a clear number 1 and number 2 driver.

Tuesday 1 April 2014

Malaysian Grand Prix



Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Nico Rosberg2/1Nico Rosberg7/2Hamilton5/6
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.83
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
-£10
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£18.33
Season Total £1 bets-£2Season Total £1 bets£4Season Total £1 bets£0.83
Season Total £10 bets-£20Season Total £10 bets£40Season Total £10 bets£8.33

Sunday 16 March 2014

Australian Grand Prix

The betting pool is back.  In my continuing quest to earn @Tiberius_Jolly some easy money, I'm still trying to see what the best F1 betting strategy is.  Last season, betting on the racer who was fastest in Saturday practice came out ahead, slightly, from betting on the winner of qualifying (work on whether it was statistically significant or not is on-going).

The results of this for this season could be less clear cut, because of the changes in technical regulations.  For the last few seasons, it's been "who can challenge Red Bull?" while this season no-one knows what's going to happen, especially given Renault's engine troubles and the way something about the Red Bull (and Lotus) aero designs seems to exacerbate them.

That being said, Vettel was still 4th on Friday practice, even if he was nowhere in practice 2 or qualifying.

I'm also going to start using the William Hill betting calculator (http://form.williamhill.com/betcalc/EN/calc.html) to work out the winnings.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Hamilton15/8Nico Rosberg4/1Hamilton5/6
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£5Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£50Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets-£1Season Total £1 bets£5Season Total £1 bets-£1
Season Total £10 bets-£10Season Total £10 bets£50Season Total £10 bets-£10

The price for the Saturday practice may be slightly less than it could have been as I was only able to get it after qualifying had finished due to time zone difference.

Obviously, it's too early to draw any firm conclusions, but so far (1 race within what is likely to be a crazy season), it looks likely to be like last year where the fastest guy after Saturday practise is a good bet.

Sunday 23 February 2014

Euro 2016

I really can't complain about the results of the draw (full results here) because Austria's pool is reasonable.  They're in group G so that's Russia, Sweden, Austria, Montenegro, Moldova and Liechtenstein.  Third should be do-able.

But I wondered what the the groups would look like if they'd gone by the FIFA rankings.

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup FGroup GGroup HGroup I
SpainGermanyPortugalSwitzerlandItalyNetherlandsBelgiumGreeceEngland
SerbiaSloveniaSwedenRussiaDenmarkFranceUkraineBosnia-HerzegovinaCroatia
ArmeniaCzech RepublicRomaniaScotlandTurkeyAustriaHungaryIcelandWales
BulgariaPolandRepublic of IrelandFinlandNorwayIsraelAlbaniaSlovakiaMontenegro
BelarusMacedoniaNorthern IrelandEstoniaAzerbaijanLithuaniaGeorgiaMoldovaLatvia
GibraltarSan MarinoAndorraFaroe IslandsLichtensteinMaltaKazakhstanCyprusLuxembourg

I, personally, prefer the random draw :)  I couldn't imagine why.  (Also I appear to have added a country somewhere)