Wednesday 29 December 2021

Top 10 films I saw in the cinema in 2021

I start with the usual disclaimer - this is not intended to be a best films list; this is a list of films I've enjoyed the most. 

If you would like a more reasonable list, may I recommend @PostCreditMR on Twitter, we disagree sometimes but his reviews are always well-reasoned. 

As a general summary of the year, I was impressed with the general quality of the films. While no film was a good as Jo Jo Rabbit or Away, both of which are exceptional and I would recommend to anyone, this year, the positives outweigh the negatives of all the films down to 13, and possibly I am just being about number 14. 

I am applying my usual 4 criteria: 

a – did the film do what it set out to do? 
b – did it use its resources to its best ability? A £250,000 film is not going to have as good explosions as a £25,000,000 film, or it shouldn’t, and if it does, there’s something wrong with the £25,000,000 film. Basically, it's a technical merit score. 
c – Intellectual satisfaction – does the film’s plot pull some really stupid move at the last moment? Does the plot rely on characters being more stupid than they are? 
d – Does this work as a whole? Did it work for me? I am aware that this is the most subjective of subjective criteria! 

With that, I bring you my top 10 of the year. 

1 - Jungle Cruise/Boys from County Hell 

Apparently I am not allowed to have Jungle Cruise this high just for the action scene set to an orchestral version of Nothing Else Matters.  

But it's not this high just because of that, or because Emily Blunt makes everything better. It just works. 

I am vividly aware of the film's flaws but I loved it. 

Boys from County Hell is from the other end of the budget scale, but they used the money well - the opening was well done 'orrible. The sound design was particularly awesome. There's a moment, which I shan't give context to avoid spoilers, where you go "I know these people". It's got a sense of place and character that's exquisite. 

I definitely recommend it for all your vampire film needs. It's a combination of the correct amounts of scary, funny and touching. 

3 - No Time To Die 

There is nothing wrong with this film, I just have a standing disagreement with the filmmakers about who James Bond is and who he should be. 

I did love the new 007 mind you. 

4 - Monster Hunter 

I only saw this after the offending scene had been cut. The rest of the film was good enough that I am annoyed that they were stupid enough to include it. 

With regard to the rest of the film, it did lots of fun things with language, the SFX for the nasties was suitably gribbly and it stared Milla Jovovich and Tony Jaa. I am easily pleased. 

I've never played the games so I cannot comment on how closely it hews to the canon or if the film does it justice. The ending totally set up a sequel we will never get which is also annoying. 

5 - Last Night In Soho 

This one gave me difficulties. It's original, has a very distinctive visual language and excellent soundtrack, production values and acting. Trouble is that it just doesn't hang together. It's basically a toss-up whether to put this here or after the swatch of superhero/superhero-type films. 

6-9 - Snake Eyes, Suicide Squad, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Black Widow 

They really are a clump. 

Of the clump, I liked Snake Eyes the best. It could have done with a stronger actor in the lead role but all else was catnip for me. I think I have fallen for Storm Shadow again though. 

Suicide Squad was the one of the four that made me cry. To avoid spoilers, it was *that* scene with Ratcatcher's father because I am Team Vermin and James Gunn apparently knows just how to stomp on my heart (no, I am never forgiving you for other spoilery thing, Mr Gunn [well played]). 

Is it for the faint-hearted? No. 
Could it have done with someone telling James Gunn "no" occasionally? Yes, hence why its so low on the list. 

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings - I enjoyed it, I loved the style and some of the meta touches. Other bits I thought were overbroad, and one spoilery thing will thoroughly annoy me for some time. 

Black Widow - I see why everyone else love it. The reasons I didn't are a mixture of my own narrative preferences, other things beyond their control (I was never getting my hella dark Rachel Weisz as Natasha's original handler who betrays her low-tech spy movie) and a couple of glaring "you (blanking) what?" moments. 

10 - Dune 

I wanted to love this. I would have settled for liking it. I think I read a completely different book to Denis Villeneuve. The film was beautifully made, excellently directed, produced, visually FXed and soundtracked. And could have been half an hour short if they cut the 15 repetitions of every flashforward down to maybe 3. 

Fuller reviews of these films, and the 4 others I saw in the cinema in 2021 to come.

Wednesday 22 December 2021

Avengers: Endgame

Review is spoiler-ridden (complete with a small spoiler for Dark Knight Rises).  And also high-pitched and squeaky in parts.

Friend C didn't like Infinity War, but she admitted that might have been because she felt there wasn't enough Steve Rogers.  Similarly, I'm not sure how much of my ambivalence to Endgame is because I didn't like what they did with Thor who is my favourite.

In my Infinity War review, I said that Thor was running on fumes and I hoped someone would be there to catch him when he fell.  And there wasn't, and there was much to like about how they handled it:

1) that it wasn't that Korg et al. weren't trying, it was that they just weren't capable of providing the support Thor needed, 

2) that scene where Thor snaps and chops Thanos's head off even though he knows it will accomplish nothing, because he is beyond doing anything but that

3) the scene with Frigga, because of course he's worried that he's not worthy anymore, and of course she realises that something terrible has happened, probably to her, and immediately stops him from telling her what happened and then he has to let her go to her death despite knowing that it's going to happen and !!!

So what am I not happy about with regard to Thor?  Mostly the idea that someone who is over-eating to cope with what appears to be a major case of depression (because the thing we know to be his literal worst nightmare [thank you Age of Ultron] has happened to him) is a figure of fun because "hur hur he fat now".  In defence of how they handled it, at least one person at work thought I was being too harsh on them and they weren't treating him as a figure of fun.

Secondly, how they handled his fat.  "OMG, Thor is so out of shape now, he looks like ... people who play rugby at international level".  I mean, he's solid, but his "out of shape"/fat-suit is better than most of us will look at any point.  Are they trying to give people complexes?

I think that the thing I really don't like is that the arc of Thor's story in his films is "that with great power comes great responsibility" and this film ends with him rejecting his responsibilities, and yes, it probably is the after-effects of everything, and would be justifiable, but after 3 films of character growth going one way, it feels like a huge step back.  (I know, I know, in Taika we trust.)

All that being said, the film still made me cry, for reasons I will go into later, so it still got to me.

The plot was very much an excuse plot, in the traditional style, but they did a good job of giving everyone something to do, especially if you consider the two films as one unit.

Because there's so much going on, a few people are going to get some short shrift in this review.  For instance, Hulk (where they seem to have solved the 'Bruce doesn't want to Hulk out but the audience is waiting for it' problem), and Rhodey, which upsets me because Rhodey never gets enough love.  Also Nebula, who is the unwitting cause of disaster, in a way that plays into how we first saw her and all the other terrible things Thanos has done.  (Thanos isn't getting much either but listen, my Infinity War review was mostly raving about Thanos and Josh Brolin so ...  Although he is very good in the scene at the start where Thanos doesn't care if he lives or dies because he's already won.).

With those apologies out of the way, let me start with the parts of the film I will spend too many words on.

1 - Hawkeye and Black Widow (or, in short, keyboard smash, the superhero film).  I mean, I'm absolutely convinced that Nat knew where he was all along and spent half her time making sure he was a step and a half ahead of Rhodey, because she feels she owes him for trusting her.  Then the moment they come up with a possible way of going back, Hawkeye is the first to volunteer, then he sees the kids and you're like "no, don't talk to them, don't touch them, you will break the space time continuum, and ruin your chances at happiness forever."  And then he gets time-snapped back just before he can, and it's worse, somehow it's worse.  

And then they get sent to Vormir.  And it's horrible.  Whoever would have got sent there, it would be horrible.  But with some of the others you could at least go "fine."  Thor, the position he's in, fine.  Cap - fine.  Iron Man - fine.  But not these two.  Not when the thing that has to happen to get the soul stone has to happen and they're best friends and no!

Can I reiterate that I was at "no!" the minute I realised they had been sent to Vormir.

And I did not retreat from "no!" at any point. 

It was done perfectly.  Every bit from the moment they realised that for this plan to work, one of them needed to die onwards.  The fact that both their first thoughts were not "how do I save myself", but "how do I make sure it's me that ends up at the bottom of the rock".  That they both tried to lie to the other one about that being their main thought to try to prevent the other one from being guilty and that neither of them convinced the other one for even a nano-second.

The fight, and the way it called back to Avengers Assemble, and the utter trust between them because they were fighting damn hard to make the other one be the one to survive and then that moment where Nat said, "let me make this choice" (or thereabouts).  She is a most-excellent godparent (I also have the problem that I was brought up to believe that in that situation, that's what the godparent is supposed to do, and I discovered that ... I have been socialised differently to other people).

And oh, Nat and Hawkeye and !!!!

2 - Steve Rogers - okay, so the thing I find really interesting about Steve Rogers in the film actually has very little to do with Steve Rogers, but I am fascinated by the response to his choice, and how similar it is to the reaction people had to Bruce Wayne's choice at the end of Dark Knight Rises.  The films are getting to the question of "how much can we expect from our heroes?", and where is the line between "with great power comes great responsibility" and a hero's right to some kind of life outside superheroism.  Then there's this interesting disconnect between an online generation who are supposed to be all "look after yourself, self-care is important," but not extending that to this sort of character, and obviously, this is fiction, but ooh, that's interesting to me.

Plus, it's not like he and Peggy hiding in backrooms and knitting in the altered past.  (I was reasonably sure that the film itself hinted at a lack of hiding, and I think Black Widow confirmed it.)  [Insert rant about audiences having no whatever-the-film-equivalent-of-reading-comprehension-is]

Cap was also involved in one of the scenes that made it clear that Marvel have written themselves some very nice loopholes if they need to reset, which is sensible.

I think he told Bucky what he was up to before he left, there is no other way of reading that scene.

3 - Gamorra - Talking about Vormir *and* giving themselves loopholes.  On the other hand, ack, a Gamorra who hasn't had a chance to become the Gamorra we know and love having to cope with that crew who, you know, love her and miss her and will, accidentally because they are morons, remind her that she is not the Gamorra they know and love at least 3 times a day.  In between her and the adventures of Drax and a recovering Pirate Angel Baby I am looking forward to Guardians of the Galaxy 3.

4 - Doctor Strange - okay so I have to admit I was mean about Benedict Cumberbatch's American accent as Doctor Strange, coming as it does via Cornwall.  I shouldn't have been, because while the accent still has its Truro moments, he nailed the rest of it.  Because there's this moment when you realise the reason why he was running through so many versions of time to find the least worst one in Infinity War wasn't to find one where they all lived but to find one where Thanos was defeated and the least of them died.  And it makes sense, *for him as a character* and builds on his film, because Strange really is no kill in that, even against villain's minion number 3.  (Also, it was interesting that all of the sorcerers only use magic for shields and general defence when they get spirited back at the end).

Which all leads to *that* moment where Doc Strange looks at Tony and Tony looks at him and they both know that this is the least worst way, and Tony knows that Doc Strange would not have suggested it had there been any other way, and Doc Strange also knows that Tony would rather be the dead one rather than Peter.  I'm wondering if that's the unspoken agreement, had the "remains dead" person been Thor, for instance, I'm not sure Tony would have agreed, and I'm not sure that that Doc Strange would have asked.  I think there is something about Peter's youth, and civillian status.

Of course, that all leads me to person 5 - Iron Man.  I have my usual reservations, mostly that they keep telling rather than showing how great Tony Stark is.  Like the bit with "oh, he's so brave risking his future with his wife and daughter," somehow missing that Scott Lang is willing to risk it too and he has a lovely daughter also.  Or, "he's so clever," when he's building on stuff that Hank Pym, Janet van Dyne and Bruce Banner have done.

It makes sense that it's him though, because he's the one that we started the journey with.

It wasn't actually Tony's death that made me cry, because, let's be honest, the way Tony Stark is, his story was never going to end any other way.

No, the bits that got me were that scene where all our heroes are arrayed and all the villains are arrayed on the other side, and there is a blasted plain and ... I read that comic.  Not that exact comic no, but how many of the comics I grew up with had that as their end fight.  I was keeping it together until T-Challa stepped through one of the sorcerers's portals and then I was gone.  Because the Avengers assembled and the Earth is defended and I am hopeless.

Then I tidied myself up until Happy asked Morgan what she wanted and she said a burger.  And oh Morgan, you have a superhero by your side in Happy, one of the best, superpowers be damned.

Separately, because, as much this wave of films had to finish with Iron Man, because we started with him, none of this would have been possible if the first Iron Man film hadn't been so good.  It might be hard to believe but no one believed that these films would ever grow into the all-devouring mega-phenomenon they have become.  So thanks, Jon Favreau, on behalf of me now, me a couple of years ago when I really did need the escapism, and 13 year old me who would have been bowled over to see her comics on the big screen.

Saturday 18 December 2021

F1 2021 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and Ferrari-biased season round up

 Yes, I did go too early with that gif.

In my defence, I don't think anyone expected that level of nonsense from the season finale.  We expected reasonable levels of nonsense and got nonsense with a nonsense cherry on top.

I have no interest in re-litigating the rights and wrongs of the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but I think that the BBC commentary team made the best point about the whole thing - the major problem has been communication.  

It's been a problem in three ways:

1 - I don't doubt that the teams used to whinge at Charlie Whiting, but I am also sure he would never have stooped to negotiating with them and he wouldn't have said something and then gone back on it.  I think race director requires more dictatorial tendencies than Michael Masi has.

2 - Possibly due to the lack of dictatorial tendencies, and the fact that it's different stewarding groups each time, the stewards have called the same things in different way, which makes it very hard to "drive to the rules" (especially when one of the two has a cheerful disregard of all rules).

3 - The first two definitely combine to cause confusion when race control do send out instructions and then promptly change their minds, twice sometimes.

I think Mercedes withdrew their appeal because it was made clear to them that there was very little chance of them succeeding (no matter what the UK papers said), because the rules of the Court of Arbitration for Sport are not those of a legal court, and they'd make themselves look like right edjits in the process.

~~~~

I think I can summarise the 2021 Ferrari season as "alright (shrug)".  As a Ferrari fan, that pains me.  "Alright (shrug)" is not good enough.  It's better than last season, but that's just because last season was literally almost incomparably bad (worst season in 40 years).

Carlos Sainz jnr deserves so many plaudits for not letting the chaos grind him down.  If he could pass some of that stability onto Leclerc, I'd be grateful.

What do I want for next year?

- A car that has straight line speed, because the lawn mower engine is embarrassing.

- More consistency

- Get rid of the slime green from the back of the car

Wednesday 8 December 2021

F1 2021 - Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

Theprincessbride Inigo Montoya GIFfrom Theprincessbride GIFs

I might be going slightly too early with that gif, given that somehow, some glorious way, there is another race worth of this delightful, violent excitement, but how else do you summarise that grand prix

There is no update to the Ferrari diagram because that was yet another nondescript race. How you have two nondescript performances in the middle of that chaos, I don't know, but they did. Okay, yes, Leclerc nearly nerfing Perez caused one bit of the chaos but that was declared a racing incident so let's skim over that ... 

And it's easy to skim over, given the Hamilton 'n' Verstappen show. 

It's so exciting, because they are the two best drivers in the best and second-best car. Depending on the circuit which car is better varies (although I think Abu Dhabi will favour the Mercedes), and there is now nothing separating them after this latest set of incidents. Because that wasn't a race, it was a series of increasingly chaotic events. 

I suspect Michael Masi regrets ever going near an F1 car. 

Part of the thrill is also part of the problem. There is no way this season ends *well*, without further incident or DNF. It would be better if they didn’t hit each other again, if there was a proper ending rather than the most likely damp squib of a crash and either a default championship win (if the stewards don't blame Verstappen) or a default championship win (if they do blame Verstappen), but I can’t see that happening. There’s something inevitable about them colliding in Abu Dhabi. 

The BBC are stirring the pot while trying to maintain decorum, but this is no time for decorum, especially when decorum means that they've not mentioned either Senna vs Prost clash. Now, they have a good excuse, that article is all about last race championship deciders, but Senna vs Prost is what everyone is thinking about, because there's just enough nasty in this battle. I'm not sure either of these two would stop if a title was on the line. 

I want there to be a clean finish, but I am excited for the finale, either way.

Wednesday 1 December 2021

Yearly Film Location Post

Yes, this was supposed to be posted in August but I really wasn't joking when I said my offline life has been busy.

This covers films up to 12th November 2017.

There have been very few changes since the last of these posts.

Looking at all locations, including fictional ones, the US, UK and France make up just over 50% (50.2%) of film locations.

If I limit it to real world locations - US and UK make up just under 50% (49.5%).  That remaining 0.5 sliver of the half is films set in France.  

Looking at UK-set films, the films are still predominantly set in England (87.9%).




Wednesday 24 November 2021

F1 2021 - Brazilian Grand Prix and Qatar Grand Prix

The Brazilian Grand Prix was interesting, wasn't it. 

I mean, the season was starting to boil nicely even before Mercedes's DRS failure, Hamilton's penalty, Verstappen's penalty for being a berk *and* Verstappen deciding to go all elbows out (even more than usual) on Hamilton. 

So now we have that, and the relative underdog for the rest of the season slightly ahead of the surging reigning champion, and the pot bubbling up. 

Part of the reason I didn't update after the Brazilian Grand Prix was because I couldn't decide whether Leclerc should get a yellow card for stirring it in the Verstappen vs Hamilton accident debate, or a cookie for stirring it in the Verstappen vs Hamilton accident debate. I do know that Ferrari are getting a red card for the complete lack of speed in Qatar.



Bad Ferrari, no cookie. 

I am reasonably sure that no matter what the official excuse, the virtual safety car at the end of the Qatar Grand Prix was to prevent any more tyre explosions, because it did get a bit

The problem, of course, is that that's not going to encourage the teams to make safety stops in future. I mean, certainly, if I'm Alpine, I roll that dice every bit as much as they did. 

It's going to be interesting to hear Pirelli's report on the cause for the explosions.

Friday 12 November 2021

F1 2021 - Mexican Grand Prix

via GIPHY

I'm awake, I'm awake! 

Although it confirmed the feeling of the end of absolute Mercedes dominance, exciting first two corners apart, that race was a snooze-fest. 

And the Mexican fans deserve so much better. They were so amazingly loud (and vehemently pro-Checo). Normally, when the radio commentary says "the crowd are very loud", because of the quality of the microphones these days, you can still hear the person being interviewed and you think 'yeah, right'. 

Not this time, the Mexican crowd did nearly drown Verstappen out. The Mexican fans deserve the best. 

In keeping with the dullness of the race, no update to the diagram. Ferrari were neither excellent nor awful.

Wednesday 3 November 2021

Benford's Law - From February to the end of June

 In June, I recorded the first digits in the top news article on the BBC website on 24/30 days.  In those 24 articles, there were 353 numbers with leading digits.  That's 14-15 per day, which is a lot more than in March, April and May, but about the same as in February.

2 is appearing the expected percentage of times. 1 and 8 are the most different to their expected values with 1 being over-represented and 8 under-represented. If you add together the sum of all the values of (observed-expected)squared, all divided by the expected, the calculated test statistic is 4.9, the same as May.

The critical chi squared value for 9 items with only one line is ~ 15.507

The test statistic smaller than the critical value therefore the difference is not significant. This data does not disobey Benford's Law.

If we look at the rolling total from February to the end of June, there have been 1599 numbers with leading digits.


2 is exactly its expected value.  1 is the number furthest away from its expected value and remains over-represented, the next furthest away is 6 which is under-represented. If you add together the sum of all the values of (observed-expected) squared, all divided by the expected, the calculated test statistic is 2.71.

The critical chi squared value for 9 items with only one line is ~ 15.507

The test statistic smaller than the critical value therefore the difference is not significant. This data does not disobey Benford’s Law.

This is a reduction from the test statistic of the total to May, but it's not as low as it was before May.

Saturday 30 October 2021

F1 2021 - US Grand Prix

Something about this race felt like it marked a real sea-change. 

For so long, if any non-Mercedes car has been in the lead and a Mercedes was hunting, the result was inevitable. That Mercedes car was going to close and close and then press the go-faster button, cue *yet another* Mercedes win. 

This time that didn't happen. 

The Mercedes caught up, but couldn't get within DRS range of Verstappen's Red Bull. 

Now, I'm hoping this means an end to the automatic Mercedes dominance (yes, two very dominant teams is not that much better than just having one dominant team, but it is better). Would I like the pretty red cars to reach the stage of not being one of the teams that is automatically overtaken by any chasing Mercedes - yes, but right now I am more concerned with them cleanly beating the McLarens and getting third place. 

That is being hamstrung by some poor tyre choices. For instance, Sainz jnr having to start on soft tyres. And also, slow pitstops, which seem to have become a bane again.

This means the updated diagram contains one red card and one yellow card. The yellow card will be upgraded to red if pitstop performance doesn't improve. gCPEvX.png 

I am going to give Sainz jnr another off-the-chart cookie for putting up with the nonsense. Also deserving of cookies for putting up with the nonsense is Michael Masi, F1 race director, or "chief cat-herder of the naughty schoolchildren" as the role is also known. Never have I heard someone quite so done with team's whinging as Masi here.

Thursday 21 October 2021

Copa America 2021 Network Diagrams

Following my Euro <strike>2020</strike> 2021 posts (link), L raised an interesting point.  While my theory that "closer to the centre = more likely to win, and less tightly connected = more likely to go out" has held up over several Euros, one Rugby World Cup, one Women's Football World Cup and one Men's Football World Cup (after the group stages), in those situations I knew enough about the relative strengths of the teams that my opinion might have been biased.  The Copa America 2021 gave me an opportunity to demonstrate whether my theory worked in a competition where I wouldn't know as much about the relative strength of the teams taking part.

There were some complicating factors, starting with the COVID pandemic.  Due to the pandemic CONMEBOL stated that nations could nominate squads of 28.  The squad lists had to be with CONMEBOL by the 10th of June.  Not all nations nominated 28, which does leave the diagrams looking lopsided.

Plotting the first round teams gives me the following diagram:



The national team closest to the centre is Chile, with Racing the club team closest to the centre.

River Plate and Bolivar are the club teams with the most players (7) followed by Atlético Madrid with 6.  The lower numbers of players per club team are reflected in how much more spread out this diagram is compared to the equivalent Euro 2020 diagram.

Bolivia are the only unconnected team.  Eight of the ten teams go through to the second round, and from this diagram, I would expect Bolivia to be one of the first to go out.  The most likely other team to be be eliminated is unclear from the diagram, but I would guess one of Peru, Venezuela or Paraguay, but Brazil are actually one of the outer teams, which even I know suggests a problem with the system.

Even if you include all the players including injury (COMEBOL rules allowing outfield replacements as well as goalkeeper replacements) and COVID-related player replacements, you still get a very similar image.


Chile are still the central national team with Universidad de Catholica (Chilean team of that name) as the central club team.  The clubs with the most players remain River Plate and Bolivar with 7 players and Atletico Madrid with 6.

Bolivia, Venezuela and Paraguay are the most outlying teams, followed by Peru, Ecuador and Brazil.

I suspect that the shape of this diagram is influenced by two factors:

1 - a lot of teams have players who play for club teams that only have representatives for that national team so the diagram is spaced out. 

2 - a lot Brazil and Argentina players play for European clubs and those two teams have disproportionately few players playing South America, but have many players playing for the same teams so they're pulling each other away from the centre.

Once two teams (Bolivia and Venezuela) were eliminated to give the quarter final teams, the diagrams looked like this:


Chile remain the national team closest to the centre, with Universidad de Chile the club team closet to the centre.

The most outlying teams are Peru, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay - looking at the quarterfinal teams, my theory still doesn't work for the Copa America.  (Again, I think because a lot of Brazilians play in Europe).

It took until the semifinal diagram for Brazil to no longer be one of the outlying teams, with Peru now being the outliers with the remaining 3 teams (Argentina, Brazil and Colombia) forming a solid triangle. 



Argentina or Peru are the national team closet to the centre, with Everton (?!!) the club team closest to the centre.

Peru stick out.

Following the semifinals, the final diagram looks like this:



It was a Brazil vs Argentina final, which I suspect everyone with a financial interest in South American football was hoping for.  The final diagram is much more interlinked than Euro or World Cup finals.  None of the linking teams are South American, very clear *all* the money is in the European game.  This undoubtedly does have a distorting effect on other Federations' Federation Cups (e.g. player release for the African Cup of Nations).

Wednesday 13 October 2021

F1 2021 - Turkish Grand Prix



Yes, that is a cookie for Ferrari.  Even more unexpectedly, it's a cookie for the strategy team!  Yes, I am astounded.

But they tried.  Not everything came off, see also leaving Leclerc out maybe 2 laps too long, but they tried.  And one thing definitely succeeded, sending Sainz out to give Leclerc a tow when it looked like he might not have made it out of Q2.  After years of watching Ferrari struck by indecision, it's so refreshing.  Interestingly, I have no idea who the Ferrari strategy person is, which is a good sign of a strategy person doing their job.

The committee have said I am not allowed to give Sainz a cookie just because.  But he definitely deserves a cookie just because.

Wednesday 6 October 2021

Benford's Law Posts - Back From A Break With May's Results

This follows the three previous posts.

I was better at remembering to add the daily article in May, adding articles on 29 of 31 days.

Looking at May's articles only, 313 leading digit numbers were used (10-11 per day, slightly more than April, about the same as March and less than February).

3 is appearing the expected percentage of times. 1 and 7 are the most different to their expected values wth 1 being over-represented and 7 under-represented. If you add together the sum of all the values of (observed-expected)squared, all divided by the expected, the calculated test statistic is 6.67, slightly higher than April.

The critical chi squared value for 9 items with only one line is ~ 15.507

The test statistic smaller than the critical value therefore the difference is not significant. This data does not disobey Benford's Law.

If we look at the rolling total from February to the end of May, there have been 1254 numbers with leading digits.

2 and 3 are the numbers closest to their expected values. 1 is the number furthest away from its expected value and remains over-represented, the next furthest away is 6 which is under-represented. If you add together the sum of all the values of (observed-expected) squared, all divided by the expected, the calculated test statistic is 2.84.

The critical chi squared value for 9 items with only one line is ~ 15.507

The test statistic smaller than the critical value therefore the difference is not significant. This data does not disobey Benford’s Law.

Interestingly, as more numbers from articles added you would expect the calculated test statistic to reduce.  Previously, it has (February = 8.6, February + March = 3.49, February + March + April = 2.29), but the test statistic has increased this time to 2.84, possibly explained by the articles from the 1st, 7th and 8th of May being very skewed towards the number 1 and having a lot of numbers in them.

Wednesday 29 September 2021

F1 2021 - Russian Grand Prix

It turns out you can have an interesting Russian Grand Prix, it just needs a tight title race, at least one engine change penalty *and* rain.

Ferrari also get a cookie for Carlos Sainz jnr's performance, which was helped by somehow, Ferrari playing the strategy game mostly right, twice.  Which is a good sign.  Now, to get a better engine in that car.



Sunday 26 September 2021

Boxing - Joshua vs Usyk

Not saying I called it, but I called it The look is that fella at the back of the pub that everyone is wary of. It's speaks of willingness to do things that other people think are unreasonable. It works against reason.

Wednesday 22 September 2021

Book review: The Universe Inside You by Brian Clegg

The author states that his aim is not to give all the information about any one area but instead to give an overview of interesting facts from many areas. He succeeds in this - while I was reading it, I would tell my Mum some of the fun facts when she rang me. So I feel a little churlish saying I almost wish the author had included fewer things so he could spend more time on less so there would be less bouncing about between topics. Less bouncing about might also make the book read more smoothly, and might have ironed out a couple of peculiarities, for instance, on one page there is a truly terrible description of enzymes, what they are and how they work, and then, not more than two pages later, there's a perfectly good and workable description of the same thing.

The book is a fun race through some interesting science, but I am left with a feeling that less would have been more.

Wednesday 15 September 2021

F1 2021 - Italian Grand Prix

 In my F1 scorecard, I feel Ferrari have earned half a cookie and a red card.


The half a cookie is for the sneaky Leclerc pit stop during the safety car period that shaved seconds off the time taken to get into and out of the pits.

The red card is for the uselessness of the card that basically meant that getting round the Ferrari was easier than some of the Monza corners. It's not good enough.

Of course, yet another mediocre Ferrari performance is not what people will remember.  Nor will it be Daniel Ricciardo's glorious victory.  No, it'll be Hamilton and Verstappen's idiot crash that will be remembered.

All hail the halo!

I don't have a car in this year's title fight - mine are half the track away due to their lawnmower-like lack of power.  The first time I saw the crash at normal speed, I thought it was a racing incident.  After several re-viewings, that's still my opinion.  You've got two very determined drivers who need to beat the other one to win the World Title, for there not to be a crash in that situation would require both of them to be very different people.

On the other hand: Max, this sort of radio message is begging to be punished, and I really can't blame the F1 for cracking down.

This does mean that Sochi might be an interesting race, possibly the first time that's been said after the first time a Grand Prix was run there.

Friday 10 September 2021

Mostly Magic Weekend 2021

I have very little to say about the Dutch Grand Prix, Ferrari did neither badly nor well and team orders remain aggravating but understandable.

I also have very little to say because I spent last weekend in Newcastle at Magic Weekend.

Newcastle was an excellent host again and I had an excellent seat.


The first match up was Castleford Tigers vs Salford Red Devils, which was enjoyable despite some local difficulties for L.

Meet the Castleford Tiger:


I was the one with difficulties with the next match, because it was Saints vs Catalan Dragons and Saints enjoy making me suffer.  It was first in the table vs second in the table and if Catalans won, they'd win the League Leaders shield.

The horrible, lovely boys


Before it all went horribly wrong, I was lucky enough to be in the corner where Tommy Makinson scored one of his Makinson-special tries.  He really is poetry in motion.

The only other possible positive to take from the Great Catalans Disaster is that L. now knows why I worry even when Saints are 20 points up.  That is the joy of being a Saints fan, 20 points down with ten minutes to go, we can still win the match, 20 points up with ten to go, we can still lose the match.

Which is what happened this time.  With Catalan equalising with a conversion after the full time hooters sounded, and winning in the second period of golden point extra time with a drop goal after Saints missed twice.

Complete with Leeds fans suddenly deciding to cheer for Catalans.  I can go off people you know!

After the Great Catalans Disaster, Leeds vs Hull FC was up next.


It featured Danny Houghton who is L's favourite player (mine is any one of the 13+4 replacements for Saints or any of the team who weren't in the starting 17.  And no, you can't make me choose.)

This match too went to two periods of extra time and was won with a drop goal.

First day reports from the Guardian

Two matches with multiple periods of extra time and a serious injury delay at the end of the Saints vs Catalans meant it was very, very late when the day finished, because the first match only started at 3.  Well allegedly at 3 and actually at 3.15, with every match further delayed, and there was no way it would have ended on time even before the match-related delays.  Sunday's slate of matches started at 1, and there's no reason why Saturday's matches shouldn't as well.

Golden Point is also a really stupid system, to the point that neither I, nor anyone I asked, had the first clue what would happen if no one scored in the second period of extra time.  If a rule is so abstruse no one knows it, it needs to be rethought.

Before the start of the second day of matches, I got close to the three World Cups (men's, women's and wheelchair)


I do worry that this is the closest anyone English will get to at least two of those.

Huddersfield vs Wakefield was up next.

Meet the Huddersfield Giant:


The other Huddersfield Giant that was spotted was Eorl Crabtree, who remains well, Big Eorl.  He was in the stadium doing some presenting for the Huddersfield half time.

The second match was Warrington vs Wigan.

Given Saints had lost, the only way of rescuing the weekend from a rugby point of view was for Wigan to lose.  This meant I was relying on Warrington, which is not a position one wishes to find themselves in.

For once, Warrington did not screw up, winning 10-6 (Guardian match report).

Warrington's fans also won "noisiest per capita" (Hull KR won noisiest overall)

L also pointed out how excellent Liam Farrell was.  I will grant that if he didn't play for Wigan I would acknowledge that he is a fine and ferocious tackler.  The problem is that he plays for Wigan.

The last match of the weekend was Hull KR vs Leigh.

The Airlie Bird catches rugby balls


The mascot spent most of the half time trying to kick a rugby ball over the posts.  He almost made it too.  That I choose to talk about this might tell you what the game was like.

There were many handling errors.

I spent most of the match with some very lovely Castleford fans who, like me, were cheering Leigh on because oh they were trying.  Leigh, much like the Italian rugby union team, do not lack for effort.  It's just the last touch is not quite there and then the last 20 minutes goes horribly wrong.

Some feedback from non-fans who had been brought to the game by friends or booze included that even they spotted that the refs were glaringly inconsistent, most frustratingly on high hits, and they couldn't understand the points of the physios and water carriers who swarmed, myrmidon-like, at every stoppage in play.  I suppose as someone who watches League regularly, I just don't notice them anymore.

I enjoyed myself immensely, except for 20 minutes at the end of the Saints match, and would recommend going to anyone who gets the chance. 


Friday 3 September 2021

F1 2021 - Belgian Grand Prix

Ferrari figure first


There is a red card for Ferrari for that qualifying performance.  Even if the Sunday deluge hadn't happened, even though Spa is one of the better circuits for overtaking on the F1 calendar, eleventh and thirteenth just isn't good enough (it doesn't matter that the positions were improved by penalties for other people).  Both cars were behind one of the Williams cars, and the second Ferrari was behind both William cars.  That means not just the amazing George Russell doing incredible, impossible things in that Williams, but also Nicholas Latifi who is not as good at getting the inexplicable out of the Williams.

It wouldn't have been acceptable even without the Sunday weirdness.

I didn't like the post-2011-Canadian-Grand-Prix rule change, because it was obviously a commercially-mandated decision rather than a sporting one, and reduced the amount of flexibility the race director had when things went wrong.  Those are precisely the times when you need more flexibility.

I don't think that the Belgian GP was salvageable with that amount of rain (running it on Monday was a pipe dream due to likely lack of marshals), but running for just enough laps to get it to half points is decidedly fishy.  Running it that way when there was no chance of overtaking was a parade of cars that shouldn't have counted as a race, no matter how happy George Russell's second place makes me.

Wednesday 25 August 2021

Missing Link (2019 Film)

It's a Laika film so I presume I don't need to say that the production itself was amazing and beautifully done.

I really liked Mr. Link himself, the boat chase and Gamu.  I laughed liked a drain at the Yeti Leader shouting "The people we don't want here are leaving! Force them to stay!" and the misadventures of Stenk, but the parts didn't really mesh into a satisfying whole for me.  It felt like the characters were being squashed into the story rather than what they do flowing from who they are.

Fun film but not as good as it could have been - or I just have unnecessarily high expectations for Laika films.

Wednesday 18 August 2021

Captain Marvel

In which I am the problem, not the film.

I know what they were aiming for.  Female nerd, of the generation that are now coming into money and power, aged somewhere between 30 and 45, finally gets to see themselves on film.  Girl power etc.

And this is where I become the problem.

Teenage girl me, who would have been hitting her comic book years when the film is set, was an X-Men fan.  I've already had my comic on screen.

If I want an accurate presentation of who I am on screen, it's Beast (or Bruce Banner - when Avengers Assemble came out, people kept saying Mark Ruffalo gave an excellent performance of me on a bad day). It's not someone who joined the US airforce in the 1980s. Given the lengths the first Captain America film went to when explaining that Steve Rogers was a good guy despite joining the US military, when he did it to go and fight in the Second World War, I could have done with them doing the same for Carol Danvers. Because I'm sorry, "I really want to fly awesome fighter jets so I will join the US military, despite what they were doing then" really does distance me from a character. (Literally, one line going "it was the only way I could afford college", and I would have given them a pass).

I've seen myself on screen, I was either blue furry or green angry. They've tried to create a relatable everywoman, but I can't relate to her.

For me, Captain Marvel herself is the least interesting good guy in her film.  (May I repeat, I am aware that I am the problem, not the film) 

This film has some similarities to the bad, outsourced Marvel films there were a few of from the early 2000s onwards, most noticeably:  

  • The bad guy has a squad of henchpeople whose presence or absence wouldn't affect the film.
  • The bad guy is defeated easily, too easily to be satisfying (yes I know Yon-Rog is supposed to be the "Debate Me" guys, but one punch is a lousy way to end a climactic battle).  
One of the big difference between the "Bad Marvel Films" and this is that it has excellent SFX and much better lighting. 

The SFX were really good, and you could hear Fox execs kicking themselves that this film came out first because a lot of the SFX when Carol Danvers gains or uses her superpowers are exactly what you'd imagine and want for the Phoenix Force.

I was amused that evil continues to sound British, and that you could guess that there was something wrong with the theory that "Skrulls: all evil" the minute Ben Mendelsohn's accent wandered into 'Strine.  I understand why they went with that twist, even if it wasn't a twist to anyone who reads comics (Skrulls, much like most of the X-Men, have been bad guys and good guys at different times).  Ben Mendelsohn is the best thing about the film, and I'm not sure why all the reviews didn't rave about him.

Going back to my theme of "I know what they were going for but it didn't work for me", another example was the soundtrack.  It was all the expected female-led hits of my teens (and Elastica.  I mean, I am a-glee over Elastica), and it was supposed to be a nostalgia-rush for people like me.  And it was, to an extent, see the previous comment about Elastica, but it kept being the wrong song for that moment.  For example, "Celebrity Skin" over the end credits.  I love that song.  It takes me back to probably 1998, and German classes in high school, and a time and a place and a mood.  But the younger me who screamed her throat raw singing along to those lyrics knows that that's not the soundtrack to Captain Marvel saving the Skrull, it's the soundtrack to Vers going back to kick Kree ass.  The song is someone at the end of their tether, not someone bringing hope.  It's rage, not kindness.  It's all the wrong song for that moment.

I think that's my overall review, the filmmakers were aiming for nostalgia and resonance with a particular segment of the audience.  As a member of that audience segment, for me, it didn't resonate the way they wanted it to, in fact some of the ways they used to try to get that feeling across caused major dissonance.  

It didn't work for me, but I suspect I am the problem, not the film.

Friday 13 August 2021

F1 2021 - Hungarian Grand Prix

Sorry for the delay in this, I was working on material for future blogposts [she says, mysteriously].

The delay is not because I didn't enjoy the Hungarian Grand Prix, even if it put me in the usual position of cheering for Fernando Alonso.  Who showed why experience matters with an excellent drive that kept a better car behind him despite the go-faster button (DRS steals joy).

There's no change to the diagram, because I am not giving cookies to Ferrari for lucking into a 3rd place due to mysterious goings on a Aston Martin.  

Very mysterious. 

Seriously, Aston Martin, building a car you can't get a litre of fuel out of at the end is the kind of idiot move I expect from ... Ferrari.  And the FIA won't save you when you do it Aston Martin.

(I have nothing but love for Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas, Sainz jnr and Stroll for this - Respect, sirs!) 


Wednesday 28 July 2021

F1 2021 - British Grand Prix

 I'm with the people who say the crash was a racing incident.

- Could Hamilton have avoided Verstappen?  Yes.  Could he have avoided Verstappen and still been a racing driver?  No.

- Could Verstappen have given Hamilton more space and avoided being hit?  Yes.  Could he have done that and still been a racing driver?  No.

That's basically the definition of a racing incident.

The race also puts to bed the whole "this year's Mercedes isn't that good."  It's 3.9 seconds plus a 10 second penalty better than the third best car on the grid.  It's still good.

Discussing the third best car on the grid, it's so frustrating that the minute Hamilton got to within DRS range it was obvious he was going to win.  The DRS button kills joy.

I was torn between giving the Ferrari performance a cookie but I decided that coming so close to winning (and how terribly sad Leclerc sounded), I am awarding Ferrari a smiley face.



Thursday 22 July 2021

F1 Sprint Races

After the first one, I am underwhelmed.

Part of the reason I am underwhelmed is not Formula 1's fault.  The other half really is.

Things that aren't Formula 1's fault - Saturday's sprint race clashed with the Challenge Cup final, which featured my home town team.  Sorry, F1, you cannot compete with this.  (Saints won, oh yes they did.)

Things that are Formula 1's fault - 

1 - Friday qualifying - you know what I do on Friday afternoon?  I work.  You know what most people do on Friday afternoons?  They work.  Having something that means ~90% of your audience can't watch is sub-optimal.

2 - the Saturday sprint race itself - Vet, Ham, Bot, not exactly an unusual top 3.  Because shortening the race is not going to alter the basic problem that 4 of the cars are significantly faster than the remaining 16, and no one can overtake any more because the cars are too wide.

Wednesday 21 July 2021

Tour De France 2021 - Data Doodles - Week 3


Yup, it's worse than last year.  But not that much worse.

Almost half of withdrawals were mid-stage abandonments.

The abandonments were mostly in the first and second week 

All the "over the time limit" exclusions were in week 1 and week 2.

DNSes were more evenly spread:

Week 1 was evenly split between abandons and OTLs

Week 2 was mostly abandonments:

By week 3, most withdrawals were DNSes, probably as the damage caught up to people.

The by-stage number view of withdrawals shows how damaging stages 9 and 11 were, even if they no longer make up more than half of all withdrawals.

Arkea-Samsic were the worst hit team, but only 4 teams didn't lose any team members.  Then again, those teams include UAE Emirates, who had the winner and Deceuninck – Quick-Step, who held the green jersey (sometimes literally up those mountains).  I think keeping as many team members in the race is an advantage.

A different view of the same data

Kaplan-Meier diagram split by teams


It shows it was that middle week that did for people.

Monday 12 July 2021

Tour De France 2021 - Data Doodles - Week 2

 I think the take home message is that this year's race is worse in terms of attrition.

As suspected, stage 9 has had after-effects.

Looking at just this year:

Stages 9 and 11 contained more than half of all withdrawals

Most of this week's withdrawals have been abandonments (I really don't blame them).


Three teams are down to 50% or less of their starting squads.



You can see the disaster happening to Arkea Samsic and stage 12 being very bad to Team Bike Exchange.