Rugby League World Cup Data Visualisation Project - England point-scoring moments and point-conceding moments after 3 games

Once again, I'd like to that nrl.com for having the data in a really easy-to-read format. For this game, the link is here - https://www.nrl.com/draw/rugby-league-world-cup/2022/round-3/england-v-greece/

There were 64 scoring moments for England.

When did England score?    

There are a couple of minutes where there are a higher concentration of points. They are at 5, 12, 23-26, 39, 49, 62, 66-67, 74, 76 and 79 minutes.

Who scored for England?

   

17 different players have scored for England. The only England players who haven't scored are Michael McIlorum, Mikolaj Oledzki, John Bateman (!), Chris Hill, Mike Cooper, Morgan Knowles and Sam Tomkins of all people. What's going on there then?

England point scoring moments by time and player:

 

Number of England point-scoring moments players were on the pitch for:

Dominic Young and George Williams were on the pitch for every England scoring moment (all 64). Oledzki was on for the least of any English players (6). 

If we look at the players who were on the same time with each other when points were scored, looking at both the matrix and the network diagrams, Oledzki has played himself out. He is the player with the least interactions in the matrix diagram and the only England player not present on the network diagram. From the matrix, you can see a clear core (Young, Williams, Welsby), with two groups of possible teammates. 

The lower group of teammates are slightly darker, suggesting more frequently co-occurring when England score. If Wane goes with that, it's a team of Young, Williams, Welsby, Sneyd, Tom Burgess, Tommy Makinson, Ryan Hall, Andy Ackers, Joe Batchelor, Kai Pearce-Paul, Morgan Knowles, Chris Hill and John Bateman as your starting 13. Which is ... not a terrible idea. 

It's obviously skewed by the sheer number of points England scored against Greece, a game Sam Tomkins missed, but I suspect that 13, with Tomkins instead of Makinson, Radley instead of Hill (providing he doesn't have an elbow injury) and Elliot Whitehead instead of Joe Batchelor might be the starting 13 for the quarterfinal. 

If we look at the points England conceded:  

 I still cannot reconcile myself to the French game having been tighter than the Samoa game for England. It makes no sense. 

The Greek game put paid to my theory that England concede more in the 30-40th minute.  

As to who is on the pitch when England concede:  

It's slightly unfair because Williams and Young were on for more than anyone else because they played 80 minutes in all 3 games. 

The interesting and unexpected is that Chris Hill wasn't on the pitch for any concession of points, the only player where that is the case. Partly, I suspect it's because he's only played limited minutes, but it suggests there's life in the old dog yet.  

I think England only conceding 9 point-scoring moments is skewing this, just because most were in the France match so the players from that match are strongly highlighted.

Rugby League World Cup Data Visualisation Project - England point-scoring moments after 2 games

After the second game, when do England score their points?

 

The points are reasonably spread through time - the most interesting thing is probably that this is two matches in a row where England have scored in the fifth minute, which suggests that Wane's philosophy may well be hit 'em hard, early. 

If we look at who scored the points, Tommy Makinson still tops the scoring-moments chart, even though he didn't play the second game. As a rugby league fan, it feels very odd saying an England game vs France was harder, with fewer scoring opportunities, than a game against Samoa. 

If we look at who scored when, Yes, that is Ryan Hall in the top 6 points scores despite only playing one game. Because if England give him the ball he will score. If only Wayne Bennett had remembered that during the last World Cup.

Number of point-scoring moments England players have been on the pitch for: Four players have been on the pitch for all of England's points - Herbie Farnworth, George Williams, Elliott Whitehead and Dominic Young. 

Other than enjoying pulling L's tail about George Williams coming up good, one of those four players is not like the others. 

Elliott Whitehead is a second rower who has now played two 80 minute matches back to back. Given how much of the noise before the tournament was about his age, I think large meals of humble pie are required for many people. 

The network diagram and matrix figures have changed, but I think the major differences reflect the personnel changes between the two matches (Ackers, Oledzki, Bateman, Sneyd and Hall in, Makinson, McMeeken, Knowles, Lees and Cooper out) rather than either set of players being better or worse at creating chances. 

  I've also now got some more info on when the opposition have scored. It's not as well formed as the scoring information so I'm only going to share one picture at the moment. The main thing I take away from this is that England concede in the last 10 minutes of the first half. 

Now, due to Samoa's implosion, that wasn't a problem against them, and again England had a decent head start against France, but later on in the tournament, that could really come back to bite them in the bum. The teams England are most likely to face in the quarter and semifinals are both momentum teams and a score then will really give them heart and might well give them the extra oomph to score another before halftime. 

What Australia might do in that situation ... it's too horrible to contemplate. 

The match against Greece is unlikely to provide final proof either way on this one, but if Greece do score in those last 10 minutes of the first half, then I think that'll prove the pattern and demonstrate a really weakness that can be exploited by England's opponents.

Rugby League World Cup Data Visualisation Project - What Combinations Score For England

This is a follow up to the Six Nations 2021 project.  In the summary for that I said, "It would be interesting to see how things like this look in sports with rolling subs (odd that there's a Rugby League World Cup this year that might fill that gap ;) )". 

It was a good plan, it was just that the Rugby League World Cup was delayed for a year. 

But it's here now.  

Since what I am interested in is whether having rolling substitutes affects the shape of the patterns, I will focus on a single team. I have, for reasons of obvious bias, chosen England. 

England's first match was versus Samoa, and I was expecting it to be close and tight. There was always the chance that it was going to be a blow out victory for England against a Samoan team who hadn't had any warm-up games. But I don't think even the most optimistic England fan (or pessimistic Samoan fan) was expecting a score of 60-6 for England (match report here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/63271368). 

Okay, so that should have given me plenty of data to work with. Shame that the official RLWC site didn't have any stats, nor did the BBC. 

Luckily for me, NRL.com did have the info. 

For the first game, all the information came from here - https://www.nrl.com/draw/rugby-league-world-cup/2022/round-1/england-v-toa-samoa/

When do England score?   

 

The points come in waves, basically at 20 minutes, 45 and then 60-80 when Samoa ran out of energy, players because three of them had either broken bones, dislocated hips or injured ligaments I've never even heard of and were a man down due to Anthony Milford being sin-binned for a late tackle.

Who scores for England?    

Tommy Makinson, so England can join Saints fans in the traditional pastime of hoping he doesn't get injured.

Who was on the pitch when England scored?   

 

And then same but as percentages: 

 

I'm going to watch how this changes, and, at the end of tournament correct for percentage of games played. At the moment it mostly shows which forwards were being rotated out (about which, more next).

Network diagram and matrix diagram of which players were on the pitch together when England scored     

After 1 game, the network diagram doesn't tell us much, but the matrix diagram interests me. 

Okay, so forwards play together less than the backs, that's expected - forward are the players you sub on and off to keep them fresh. 

What I didn't expect was the pattern: 

Morgan Knowles (LF, SR) and Matty Lees (Prop) played together infrequently, which is odd since they play different positions. 

Matty Lees (Prop) and Chris Hill (Prop) not playing together makes more sense because they're both props. 

Michael McIlorum (hooker) and Chris Hill (Prop) and Tom Burgess (Prop) not playing together is odd, because, again, not the same position 

Mike Cooper (Prop, LF) and Chris Hill (Prop) and Thomas Burgess (Prop) and Chris Hill (Prop) and Tom Burgess (Prop) not playing together, again, makes sense because they'd be prop for prop replacements. 

The two "proper" forwards that played the full 80 minutes were Mike McMeeken (second row) and Elliot Whitehead (also second row). It's both interesting, given the pre-tournament chat about Whitehead's age, and not surprising because McMeeken is the second most underrated player in Super League. 

The thing that strikes me is that there was a period of the game, when McIlorum was off the pitch, when there was no recognised hooker on the pitch. In fact, had anything happened to McIlorum, there was no other recognised hooker in the matchday squad - Shaun Wane has only picked two of them, McIlorum and Andy Ackers. 

Now I'm sure that someone, probably Victor Radley, could have deputised but it's a risky tack to take. 

Obviously, I'll keep updating these as the tournament carries on. I'm also going to look at who is on the pitch when England concede. However, at the moment, it's an uninformative set of information. 

The R project is here https://github.com/fulltimesportsfan/RLWC2021/blob/a49975981f6054b70a48b7b265a86b5a6d599d61/Rugby%20League%20World%20Cup%202021%20Summary.R 

I've fixed all the random movies and casts. I think it's given me a better idea of how the code works. 

Json file if you want to do cooler things with it is here - https://github.com/fulltimesportsfan/RLWC2021/blob/35effbc084c65f3383e420f02ccfaf81524ac1b1/England1stgame.json

Rugby League World Cup 2021/2022

Much like the last Olympics, I am not sure if we're giving this the number of the year it should have been in or the number of the year it is in. 

Whatever we're calling it, it kicks off tomorrow with what is probably the most interesting match of the group stage, England, the hosts, vs Samoa. 

Partly I am just excited to see international rugby league again, but partly this could be a stormer of a match. Or it could be a completely implosion of either side. It's that lovely thrill of the unknown. 

Because on paper, Samoa should be excellent, and England are coming in with a few injuries and short at least two players who I think would have been in the starting 13. But rugby is played on pitches not paper, and this is a Samoa team who haven't played together often and ... oooh it could be interesting. 

The other rugby league fan at work (a Salford fan for his sins) feels much the same way as I do. It's all very oooooh. 

In group B, Australia vs Fiji could be good, if Fiji play like they did last World Cup, or it could be appalling, if they play like they did in their warm-up game (England 50-0 Fiji, Fiji you are better than that.) 

In group C, Ireland vs Lebanon is probably the most intriguing match, because Lebanon (coached by Michael Cheika, yes that Michael Cheika) come together nicely for World Cups and Ireland look solid, and neither team have ever lacked heart and effort. 

Group D features the other candidate for the potentially most interesting match - Tonga vs Papua New Guinea. Tonga, lead by the ever-wonderful Kristian Woolf, ex-Saints coach and based in St Helens and training with our academy boys Tonga, vs Papua New Guinea, the national team of the only country on the planet that has rugby league as it's national sport. 

The rugby will be beautiful, the score unpredictable. 

I've made the usual network diagrams. 

Due to the number of New Zealandish, Fijian, Samoan and Australian players that play on the same teams, that part of the diagram is tightly clustered so I've had to tweak the settings to make that part readable.  

Everyone else is much more spread out. 

The national team closest to the centre, pretty much bang on centre in fact, are the Cook Islands, with Leeds being the club team closest to the centre. 

These diagrams would have been posted sooner, but a couple of players had to be replaced at the last minute by some of the teams so I had to make a last minute update. Interestingly, before that, there were no Hull F.C. players, but both replacement players play for Hull. I had thought it odd that there weren't any. 

The Penrith Panthers are the club team with the most players present, with 19, followed by Catalan Dragons with 18 (not all playing for France) and South Sydney Rabbitohs with 17. 

The community view of the network diagrams is also interesting.  

There are 16 teams in this group stage but they fit into just 13 communities. Samoa and New Zealand are 1 community, as are Fiji and Australia and so are England and Ireland. The other teams are their own separate communities. 

Certainly I'd expect the winners to come from the Australia/New Zealand/Fiji/Samoa cluster, and even with a team with 13 players making their debut Australia are still strong favourites. 

I was hoping to have similar diagrams for the Women's World Cup and the Wheelchair World Cup, which are being held at the same time as one giant festival of rugby league, but unfortunately, most reports don't name the club teams the players play for. 

If I can find the information, I will make the diagrams.

Formula 1 2022 - There will be no review of the Japanese Grand Prix

There will be no review of the Japanese Grand Prix because it has become obvious that the people running the Japanese Grand Prix do not care about previous Japanese Grand Prix so I don't see why I should.

What could have happened to Pierre Gasly is unforgiveable.

Motorsports will never be completely safe, but that just makes it more important that people who run races reduce risk where possible.  

Having a tractor-type truck on track while drivers are racing in poor visibility in rainy conditions that lead to poor ability to control the car is a known danger - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/63190448

Jules Bianchi sustained the injuries that killed him at Suzuka in precisely those circumstances.

After the investigation, once that combination of factors was identified, everyone involved with the Japanese Grand Prix and Suzuka circuit said "never again".  

I don't think doing the same thing 8 years later counts as never again.

Formula 1 2022 - Singapore Grand Prix

Other than actually winning, as a Ferrari fan, I can't see any way the Singapore Grand Prix could have gone much better for us. 

The inevitable was delayed that little bit longer, and for once, we were not the most incompetent. 

I mean, there was one moment of glorious Ferrari idiocy but one per weekend is less than usual.

Ferrari just managed an unsafe release with their own car #SingaporeGP pic.twitter.com/9WBxBmeFMO

— WTF1 (@wtf1official) October 1, 2022

Despite that, I was underwhelmed by the race. Marc Priestly, on BBC commentary for the weekend, said something that I think explains it. He said that he normally doesn't like the Singapore Grand Prix because nothing happens and he wasn't sure if this year's race was interesting or whether it was just because a lot of nothing happened. 

And I think he was right. Very little actually interesting happened, but, boy, was there a lot of not interesting happening.