Hungarian Grand Prix

Fastest Friday Practice	Price	Fastest Saturday Practice	Price	Fastest Qualifying	Price
Lewis Hamilton	1/2	Lewis Hamilton	16/1	Nico Rosberg	1/3
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	£1.5	Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	£17	Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	£15	Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	£170	Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	-£10
Season Total £1 bets	£1.87	Season Total £1 bets	£21.23	Season Total £1 bets	£1.51
Season Total £10 bets	£18.67	Season Total £10 bets	£212.30	Season Total £10 bets	£15.11

Unfortunately, I was only able to get the values for Saturday practise after qualifying where Hamilton had his oops.  This may skew the values somewhat.

German Grand Prix

I still miss old Hockenheim.  I know I say that every time F1 visits new Hockenheim but it remains true.  The new track is a ruination.

Fastest Friday Practice	Price	Fastest Saturday Practice	Price	Fastest Qualifying	Price
Lewis Hamilton	4/6	Nico Rosberg	6/4	Nico Rosberg	1/3
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	-£1	Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	£2.50	Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	£1.33
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	-£10	Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	£25	Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	£13.33
Season Total £1 bets	£0.37	Season Total £1 bets	£4.23	Season Total £1 bets	£2.51
Season Total £10 bets	£3.67	Season Total £10 bets	£42.30	Season Total £10 bets	£25.11

World Cup Final Interconnectivity Diagram

The normal interconnectivity diagram is not all that interesting, since all it really tells us is that Bayern Munich had the most players in the World Cup final (7), followed by Borussia Dortmund (4) and Manchester City (3).  The only teams guaranteed to have a player on the winning side were Real Madrid and Lazio.

What is interesting is the community view:

The vast majority of the German players are in one group, as are the vast majority of the Argentine players.  Real Madrid and Lazio (and attached players) are their own groups, but so are the Arsenal players, poor concussed Christoph Kramer, Ziegler of Borussia Mönchengladbach, Andre Schürle and the Schalke boys for Germany, and the Boca Junior players, the solitary Catana player, Basanta of Monteray, Lavezzi and Romero of Monaco.  I don't understand the algorithm well enough to understand why those players get turned into their own communities while, say, Ginter of Freiburg (also the only player representing that team) doesn't.

Semi-Final Predictions

Brazil vs Germany:

If this was Brazil, on home turf, with Thiago Silva and Neymar, I'd have no issue with saying Brazil to win.  Even without Silva, I'd still be tempted, but without Neymar, I can't see them doing it, not against what it a particularly grim and determined German team.

Argentina vs Netherlands:

Even without Di Maria, Messi might be able to drag Argentina through, especially if Higuaín has finally remembered how to play football.  But this is a pretty solid Dutch team, and if anyone can think a team's way to victory it is the evil genius van Gaal.

Somehow, I fear something that was set up perfectly to produce Brazil vs Argentina at the Maracanã, is going to wind up being Germany vs the Netherlands.  The death of European football may have been grossly exaggerated.

World Cup Semi-Finals Interconnectivity Diagram

Germany are the nearest team to the middle, but it's not a particularly clear middle (as you can see). It's interesting how inter-related Brazil and Argentina are, despite how few of their players play in their own home leagues.

The team nearest the middle are Bayern Munich, who are also the team with the most players remaining, with 9 players left.  Bayern are also the only team who are guaranteed to have a player in the final, since as well as the various Germans, Dante also plays for them.  Chelsea and Feynoord are the teams with the next most players left, with 5 each.

When you look at the community view

the four countries are all separate communities.  Amusingly, Real Madrid and Lazio are also their own separate communities, possibly because they link different countries.

British Grand Prix

After the first set of results where one of our betting strategies has led to an overall loss of money over the season, we come to the British Grand Prix.  I'll do my best to get this done properly but I'm at a wedding for all of tomorrow so there may be issues.

Fastest Friday Practice	Price	Fastest Saturday Practice	Price	Fastest Qualifying	Price
Lewis Hamilton	4/6	Sebastian Vettel	18/1	Nico Rosberg	8/11
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	£1.67	Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	-£1	Amount won/lost on a £1 bet	-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	£16.67	Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	-£10	Amount won/lost on a £10 bet	-£10
Season Total £1 bets	£1.37	Season Total £1 bets	£1.73	Season Total £1 bets	£1.18
Season Total £10 bets	£13.67	Season Total £10 bets	£17.30	Season Total £10 bets	£11.78

World Cup Quarter Final Predictions

France vs Germany - If nothing else, it ought to be a good watch.  My heart says Germany, my head says France.  Because Germany looked decidedly wobbly against Algeria, while France don't seem to have a defence at all.

Brazil vs Colombia - I've been less impressed by Colombia than everyone else, so I think Brazil will edge it, but it might be close.

Argentina vs Belgium - It really ought to be Argentina, even if they have just been squeaking by.  Mostly because I think their squeaking has been marginally more impressive than Belgium's squeaking.

Netherlands vs Costa Rica - Netherlands because Costa Rica had a much longer match vs Greece and had the added stress of a penalty shoot-out.  Plus they're short one of their starting defenders due to his red card in the Greece match.  That being said, I suspect it might be like the Mexico team where the Netherlands are on the back foot for most of the match only to seize victory at the last minute.

2014 World Cup Quarter Finals Interconnectivity Diagram

The diagram now looks like this:

Nearest national to the middle = Belgium, although majority of the teams are shifted to the left, because of the connections between Germany, France, Belgium, Brazil and Argentina, and the lack of connections from those to Costa Rica.  I blame Chelsea ;)

The nearest club team is probably Zulte Waregem.

In the community view, all the national teams are separate (and it looks quite pretty).

Bayern Munich continue to have the most players represented (10), now followed by Arsenal (7) and Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea (6).