Tuesday, 5 May 2026

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Japanese Grand Prix

The Japanese Grand Prix itself: Bar chart of driver numbers on the y-axis compared to standardised residual levels for the Japanese Grand Prix along the x-axis.  The driver the most over-checked compared to expected is Piastri, car 81, with a value of 0.51 compared to expected.  Next is a cluster of 4 drivers, 63 - Russell, 44 - Hamilton, 10 - Gasly and 5 - Bortoleto on 0.34. 9 cars were tested exactly the amount expected.  Car 87 - Bearman was the car tested least vs. expected at -0.51, followed by car 18, Stroll, on -0.34. Further to my theory that not finishing means less testing, once Piastri (car 81) finishes a race, he is the most tested car in that race. 

With 20 finishers, the bonus testing of one of the top 10 finishers happened. This time it was Lewis Hamilton, car 44. This is more than 15 so that fits in with my theory from the Chinese Grand Prix post. 

Bearman (car 87), one of the two non-finishers, was the least tested car. Stroll, car 18, the other non-finisher, is the second least tested. This supports the theory that non-finishers get tested less. 

As with the previous races, none of the differences are statistically significant. 

Season to date up until the end of the Japanese Grand Prix Bar chart of driver numbers on the y-axis compared to standardised residual levels for the season, up to the Japanese Grand Prix, along the x-axis.  The driver the most over-checked compared to expected is Russell, car 63, with a value of 0.59 compared to expected.  There are a cluster of 7 cars with exactly the expected number of tests.  Car 14, Alonso, is the least tested compared to expected (with -0.59). Russell (car 63) is the most tested compared to expected with a standard residual of 0.59. 

Alonso (car 14) is the least tested compared to expected, possibly because of how few laps that Aston Martin has finished this season. 

One good race has catapulted Piastri from the most under-measured to the middle of the pack. This demonstrates why I think the numbers will tend towards the expected as the season progresses, except for possibly the drivers who are frequently in the top 10 and those whose cars do not finish. 

None of the differences are statistically significant, and now 7 drivers are exactly on expected, fitting in with the theory that the numbers will converge as the season progresses.