Formula 1 2026 - Mexico City Grand Prix

Yes, I know I ought to be posting something more relevant, like the Rugby League World Cup final diagrams, but they are in the works. The data visualisation project is slightly stuck. I'm currently at the "looking at diagrams, screaming that nothing makes sense" stage. 

Then again, that also covers most of my Mexico City Grand Prix commentary. 

I'm used to Ferrari snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but crashing into each other and then having a strategy oops is a bit much, even for us. My theory is that the drivers know the car isn't as good as the Mercedes, and because they know the strategy team can't get them out of mistakes, they put too much pressure on themselves and it leads to more mistakes. 

The circuit is still not racing-friendly, with most of the interest coming from whether the hybrid engines produced by this set of regulations could cope with the heat and the altitude. 

Very glad to see Bottas was alright. On the radio, that crash sounded nasty. 

But no matter the other issues with this race, this is its (and possibly the season's) defining image:  

Is that not just the loveliest thing?

Formula 1 2026 - United States Grand Prix

Delayed, because I had notes, but forgot to post them. 

First, a complaint. I have no idea who US TV have doing the interviews, but I think Mercedes nailing the new regulations has more to do with Antonelli's results than any mindset change from Kimi from last year to this. 

I would also like to have a word with whichever arranger stuffed up the poor lady singing the anthem. There is no key change there, sir. 

On to the race itself: 

Ferrari, how dare you have the worst engine. There are traditions! Ours is strong engines. Occasionally exploding engines, but strong, powerful engines. 

Ferrari tried clever things with strategy. This worries me more than when Red Bull do it. 

If Russell didn't have bad luck, he'd have no luck. 

Did Red Bull not tell Hadjar that he is race driver number 2? (I believe this is the usual time for the traditional song from Muppets: Most Wanted - I'm Number One and You're Number 2) 

I would like to thank Leclerc for bringing some racing! Normally COTA brings much more entertainment than this race did. (Also, yes BBC radio, the Ferrari fans are numerous enough to be heard :) )

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix

The major update, in terms of this project, was Hadjar coming back after his wrist injury. The actual race scrutineering chart is very straightforward with all the drivers being very near the expected value of 38 tests. This can be seen by how far away those values are from the dotted lines that indicate significance. 

It makes sense that Norris, Alonso, Stroll, Colapinto and Bottas were tested fewer times than expected because they were amongst the drivers whose cars didn't finish the race (race report here). 

Interesting things are happening in the season-long charts. 

For the season to date, the χ² has gone up to 4.9509, still not significant but increasing. Russell is still the most over-scrutinized, followed by Hamilton and Verstappen. Antonelli is the 5th most scrutinized (although I know that's just luck of the draw). 

The bottom section is all the unreliable cars (Aston Martin and Cadillac) but Hadjar is remarkably low, coming just above those four. And that's not a mistake in the coding, I've checked. The code has considered the three races where Hadjar was replaced by Tsunoda. 

I'll see if this pattern continues in the next few races.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 - Women's Semifinal Network Diagrams

Sorry for the delay on posting the equivalent diagram for the Women's Rugby League World Cup 2026.  

The interesting thing is how much less symmetrical the women's semi-final diagram is. There's a definite New Zealand, Samoa and Australia triangle with Fiji sticking out. This does not bode well for the Fijian women's team, but on this blog, hope springs eternal. 

New Zealand are the national team closest to the centre, with Brisbane Broncos being the club team closest. 

There are 6 clusters in the community view, the 4 national teams, then one cluster that includes Cronulla Sutherland Sharks and West Tigers which seems to exist because they link multiple national teams, then the St George Illawarra cluster, because St George Illawarra players link Samoa and Fiji, but only Samoa and Fiji.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 - Men's Semifinal Network Diagrams

I will bemoan and bewail England at some later date, look at how geometrically symmetrical and therefore suggestive of some seriously stonking semifinals this network diagram looks. Penrith Panthers or West Tigers are the club team closest to the centre. 

The four national teams are equidistant, which suggests a fairly even spread of players and club connections between them, and that they may be of reasonably similar strength. 

Which also suggests that Australia's narrow win over New Zealand might not have been a one off, and only raises my hopes that someone might beat Australia. 

I may be looking forward to New Zealand vs Tonga a frankly unhealthy amount but both semifinals have the potential to be so good.

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Madrid Grand Prix

We'll ignore that I've somehow forgotten to write up my US Grand Prix notes when I swore I had, and that I'm that far behind in this series that I accidentally did the maths for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix before doing this one. I will catch up, eventually. 

The Madrid Grand Prix itself: 

Like the race itself, nothing spectacular in the scrutineering data. 

The χ² for the race is 1.32, so none of the differences are statistically significant.  

The bottom 3 cars (Perez, Stroll and Sainz) are 3 out of the 4 cars that retired, which makes sense. 

This is the first time that Antonelli (car 12) has been that high up. 

The season up until the Madrid Grand Prix: 

The continuing increase in the χ² for the season-long scrutineering can best be seen in the figure with the dotted lines for significance. χ² is now 4.58 (compared to a threshold for significance of 33.92).  

It really is the cars at the bottom of the pile that are pulling the numbers up, because their absolute values are so much larger than the over-scrutinized.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 - Data visualisation project update after game 2

Game 2 itself: 

The game highlights one of the problems England face. They can beat the French, and beat them handily (Match report here), but against the stronger teams, they just don't seem to gel. 

Like in 2023, yes, they beat a touring Tonga team (who were without several of their players), but it wasn't anything like convincing, and yes, that was under a different coach but I don't blame Wane for it. 

There needs to be more regular international rugby league to allow England to get any better (also Lebanon, France, Ireland, Scotland etc). 

McDermott appears to have come around on the topic of Jez Litten, but not quite sure why you'd suddenly swap Ashton for Eckersley after you'd trusted Eckersley against Tonga. 

Data visualisation: 

For the data visualisation, I've only done the cumulative charts. This is partly because half the game 2 charts would have been blank because France didn't score, and because the thrust of the project is the developments game to game. 

When do England score?

Even against France, it took England 22 minutes to score. Obviously, they won the game handily, and you have to wear all oppositions down but it does suggest a certain lack of oomph. 

Who scores for England?  

Savala being the player who has the most point-scoring moments makes sense, because he's the kicker. Dom Young being in second place shows that giving him the ball is a good idea. Let Dom Young do the thing he's best at. 

The France game really skews the "which players are on the pitch when England score?" line chart over time, but you can see which players England use as impact subs.  

Which players are on the pitch the most when England score?  

Pearce-Paul, Savala, Smith, Young and Brimson are obviously McDermott's chosen core, with Ashton having taken over from Eckersley on the wing. Not sure why he didn't play Havard against France, but England do have sufficient forwards that it's not that weird. 

The who plays together when England score matrix graph also shows pattern. Because there were a number of changes in the squad between the two games, and because there were far more point-scoring moments in the game against France, the matrix has developed an interesting shape. 

Eckersley, O'Neill and Havard are consigned to the pale, not-often-on-the-pitch-together-when-England-score section. 

There's a shade of darker yellows to mid orange, these are the players that played more of a role in one game or the other (skewed, as I said, by more point-scoring moments in the France game) - they are Welsby, Lewis, Radley, Williams, Thompson, King. 

Radley, although he's in the middle of this group is the darkest orange line, possibly because he played quite a bit in both games, while Welsby and Lewis didn't play in the Tonga game. 

Then we have the next darkest section, a tomato ketchup red, with Ashton, Litten and Walters. Ashton only played in the France game, Litten played in both but only 20 minutes of the Tonga game, but Walters played in both. 

The darkest section, a deep red wine sort of colour, is those players who played large parts in both matches. They are Pearce-Paul, Savala, Smith, Young and Brimson, who seem to be McDermott's core group, plus whichever other winger he picks and a hooker. 

That's also reflected in the network graph, which there are now enough data points for:  

I didn't expect Williams to be that far out, given he's captain and played in both matches. 

England's hopes rest on the Tonga vs Samoa game which was always one of my picks for most interesting match of the group stage.

Formula 1 2026 - Singapore Grand Prix

I try and post these in a timely fashion (editorial comment: too late) but it's really hard to do that when there's so much else going on with the Rugby League World Cup, especially when the race I need to write up is a particularly boring Singapore Grand Prix. 

Possibly the most interesting thing about it was the ridiculous lengths Bottas went to just to get there - cycling from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore 

We also had a rehash of Ferrari's strategic nonsense. By lap 12, Ferrari were up to plan C. Truly, I love my team. I also find it amusing that people kick Ferrari when they use team orders and when they don't. They can't win (in the philosophical as well as sporting sense). 

If McLaren could do pitstops, they'd be dangerous. 

The radio issues meaning GP had to resort to "knock once for yes, twice for no" to communicate with Max Verstappen. That might be one way to spice up the racing, make them do it without radio. 

He is a sarcastic Toto! Although seriously, I don't even want to imagine how many times this season Antonelli has had track limit warnings. 

I am hopeful that the US Grand Prix will be more interesting.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 - A small data visualisation project about the England Men's team

England Match 1: 

Because of poor decisions by International Rugby League I couldn't watch the match anywhere so was listening to it on the radio. Truly, Robbie Hunter-Paul is an international treasure. 

Not entirely sure why the English press were saying it was a shock, other than them never giving Tonga the credit they are due. If they'd said the first Tongan try was a shock, that would be true, it was against the run of play but after that it was a lot more even. 

I'm a Saints fan, spiritually, I prefer what McDermott was trying to get this England team to do rather than the kind of rugby Shaun Wane had them playing. 

On the other hand, Wane looked at the players he had and played them in a system that worked to their strengths. If you're going for quick and clever, why are you not playing Mikey Lewis (never mind Jake Connor who didn't even get picked)? George Williams and Harry Smith have their uses, but quick and clever isn't it. 

I don't blame McDermott for some of the errors because the England players appeared to develop poor decision making skills every time they got into the Tongan 20 meters, but there was some oomph lacking. I don't know if McDermott's made that choice because he doesn't think this front row can bring the biff, and they're big units but they don't scare me the way say Burgesses plural, or Elliott Whitehead or James Graham did. (Challenge, go a whole thing without mentioning Jamie Graham, glorious failure). So fine, you aren't doing wham bam rugby, you're running the ball instead, but then you have to involve the wingers, especially if one of them is Dom Young. And that seemed to be missing. 

So England now have to rely on beating France and Lebanon and hoping the other results go their way. I'm going to be really upset about either England or PNG not making it, I fear. 

Data visualisation project: 

Much like the last World Cup, I'm doing a small data visualisation project to see if I can spot patterns in player selections and how the team performs. 

One game doesn't give much data, but here is what I have so far. 

England's point-scorers by name and time Very little there other than Savala is the chosen kicker. 

Because there were only two tries for England, the chart of which players are on the pitch when England score is uninformative. The one for "who is on the pitch when England concede" looks like this. You can see Thompson and Havard coming on and off, and Jez Litten being given the last 20 minutes. 

The two equivalent bar charts for which players were present for point-scoring and point-conceding moments are below. You can see who were rolled on as subs, King, Nsemba, Litten and O'Neill. According to nrl.com King and Nsemba swapped on for each other, and obviously Litten and O'Neill are a straight swap. 

The bar chart of who was on for point-concessions is more interesting.  

The larger number of events reflects both the result and the number of 2-point penalties Tonga scored. In the chart you can see the backs who didn't get subbed off, and the forwards who were. 

The two matrix charts of who was together when England scored and conceded are below. There's not yet enough data for the equivalent network graphs. Because England only had 4 point-scoring moments so the chart is simple, with the players who were together for all 4 points in purple and the ones present for fewer in orange. The one exception is Max King, who is in very pale yellow where he crosses over with Nsemba and O'Neill, suggesting they didn't play together as often when England scored. It makes sense for Nsemba because he was subbed on for him, and O'Neill got subbed off for Litten at around the same time.

Then there's the chart for when England conceded: There's a distinct split between the dark purple, the players most often together when England concede, section, and the second darkest (the darker orange). The latter includes O'Neill, Walters and Nsemba, who were substituted on and off rather than remaining with the main group throughout. Ben Currie has the palest line because he only came on at minute 68. 

Harvard and Walters were the players present for relatively fewer point-conceding moments, being in the darkest purple section for scoring but not for conceding (yes, I know I'm being nice about Wigan players. Yes, it feels wrong). 

It'll be interesting to see what patterns develop over time.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 - Women's Group Stage Network Diagrams

Here are the network diagrams for the group stages for the Women's Rugby League World Cup 2026. 

First, let's look at the non-labelled version of the diagram.  

Which teams are which? France are completely on their own which doesn't bode well for them. 

The other two teams sticking out at the bottom are England and Wales, which also doesn't bode brilliantly. 

Of that top cluster of 5 teams, Fiji, Samoa, New Zealand, Australia and Papua New Guinea, Papua New Guinea are the team sticking out slightly to the right. 

The other thing I've noticed is that while, in the equivalent men's diagram there is a mixture of club teams that the players are from, in the women's most of the national teams have one club team that most players are from (Papua New Guinea are the only team where that's not really the case). 

The community view also does something fun.  

Normally, there's the same number of communities in this view as national teams, or maybe fewer when the teams are deeply enmeshed due to links through club teams. This time, the North Queensland Cowboys are an extra community, I think because they link 5 of the national teams. 

Because of France being separate, it's really hard to identify the central team, particularly the central national team because of the way they are clustered. Central club team is probably Sydney Roosters. 

The Roosters are also the club team with the most representatives, alongside RC Lescure-Arthes XIII, with 12. They are followed by Gold Coast Titans, Wigan Warriors and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs on 11, and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks on 10.