Following my Euro <strike>2020</strike> 2021 posts (link), L raised an interesting point. While my theory that "closer to the centre = more likely to win, and less tightly connected = more likely to go out" has held up over several Euros, one Rugby World Cup, one Women's Football World Cup and one Men's Football World Cup (after the group stages), in those situations I knew enough about the relative strengths of the teams that my opinion might have been biased. The Copa America 2021 gave me an opportunity to demonstrate whether my theory worked in a competition where I wouldn't know as much about the relative strength of the teams taking part.
There were some complicating factors, starting with the COVID pandemic. Due to the pandemic CONMEBOL stated that nations could nominate squads of 28. The squad lists had to be with CONMEBOL by the 10th of June. Not all nations nominated 28, which does leave the diagrams looking lopsided.
Plotting the first round teams gives me the following diagram:
The national team closest to the centre is Chile, with Racing the club team closest to the centre.
River Plate and Bolivar are the club teams with the most players (7) followed by Atlético Madrid with 6. The lower numbers of players per club team are reflected in how much more spread out this diagram is compared to the equivalent Euro 2020 diagram.
Bolivia are the only unconnected team. Eight of the ten teams go through to the second round, and from this diagram, I would expect Bolivia to be one of the first to go out. The most likely other team to be be eliminated is unclear from the diagram, but I would guess one of Peru, Venezuela or Paraguay, but Brazil are actually one of the outer teams, which even I know suggests a problem with the system.
Even if you include all the players including injury (COMEBOL rules allowing outfield replacements as well as goalkeeper replacements) and COVID-related player replacements, you still get a very similar image.
Chile are still the central national team with Universidad de Catholica (Chilean team of that name) as the central club team. The clubs with the most players remain River Plate and Bolivar with 7 players and Atletico Madrid with 6.
Bolivia, Venezuela and Paraguay are the most outlying teams, followed by Peru, Ecuador and Brazil.
I suspect that the shape of this diagram is influenced by two factors:
1 - a lot of teams have players who play for club teams that only have representatives for that national team so the diagram is spaced out.
2 - a lot Brazil and Argentina players play for European clubs and those two teams have disproportionately few players playing South America, but have many players playing for the same teams so they're pulling each other away from the centre.
Once two teams (Bolivia and Venezuela) were eliminated to give the quarter final teams, the diagrams looked like this:
Chile remain the national team closest to the centre, with Universidad de Chile the club team closet to the centre.
The most outlying teams are Peru, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay - looking at the quarterfinal teams, my theory still doesn't work for the Copa America. (Again, I think because a lot of Brazilians play in Europe).
It took until the semifinal diagram for Brazil to no longer be one of the outlying teams, with Peru now being the outliers with the remaining 3 teams (Argentina, Brazil and Colombia) forming a solid triangle.
Argentina or Peru are the national team closet to the centre, with Everton (?!!) the club team closest to the centre.
Peru stick out.
Following the semifinals, the final diagram looks like this:
It was a Brazil vs Argentina final, which I suspect everyone with a financial interest in South American football was hoping for. The final diagram is much more interlinked than Euro or World Cup finals. None of the linking teams are South American, very clear *all* the money is in the European game. This undoubtedly does have a distorting effect on other Federations' Federation Cups (e.g. player release for the African Cup of Nations).
