Formula 1 2026 - Singapore Grand Prix

I try and post these in a timely fashion (editorial comment: too late) but it's really hard to do that when there's so much else going on with the Rugby League World Cup, especially when the race I need to write up is a particularly boring Singapore Grand Prix. 

Possibly the most interesting thing about it was the ridiculous lengths Bottas went to just to get there - cycling from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore 

We also had a rehash of Ferrari's strategic nonsense. By lap 12, Ferrari were up to plan C. Truly, I love my team. I also find it amusing that people kick Ferrari when they use team orders and when they don't. They can't win (in the philosophical as well as sporting sense). 

If McLaren could do pitstops, they'd be dangerous. 

The radio issues meaning GP had to resort to "knock once for yes, twice for no" to communicate with Max Verstappen. That might be one way to spice up the racing, make them do it without radio. 

He is a sarcastic Toto! Although seriously, I don't even want to imagine how many times this season Antonelli has had track limit warnings. 

I am hopeful that the US Grand Prix will be more interesting.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 - A small data visualisation project about the England Men's team

England Match 1: 

Because of poor decisions by International Rugby League I couldn't watch the match anywhere so was listening to it on the radio. Truly, Robbie Hunter-Paul is an international treasure. 

Not entirely sure why the English press were saying it was a shock, other than them never giving Tonga the credit they are due. If they'd said the first Tongan try was a shock, that would be true, it was against the run of play but after that it was a lot more even. 

I'm a Saints fan, spiritually, I prefer what McDermott was trying to get this England team to do rather than the kind of rugby Shaun Wane had them playing. 

On the other hand, Wane looked at the players he had and played them in a system that worked to their strengths. If you're going for quick and clever, why are you not playing Mikey Lewis (never mind Jake Connor who didn't even get picked)? George Williams and Harry Smith have their uses, but quick and clever isn't it. 

I don't blame McDermott for some of the errors because the England players appeared to develop poor decision making skills every time they got into the Tongan 20 meters, but there was some oomph lacking. I don't know if McDermott's made that choice because he doesn't think this front row can bring the biff, and they're big units but they don't scare me the way say Burgesses plural, or Elliott Whitehead or James Graham did. (Challenge, go a whole thing without mentioning Jamie Graham, glorious failure). So fine, you aren't doing wham bam rugby, you're running the ball instead, but then you have to involve the wingers, especially if one of them is Dom Young. And that seemed to be missing. 

So England now have to rely on beating France and Lebanon and hoping the other results go their way. I'm going to be really upset about either England or PNG not making it, I fear. 

Data visualisation project: 

Much like the last World Cup, I'm doing a small data visualisation project to see if I can spot patterns in player selections and how the team performs. 

One game doesn't give much data, but here is what I have so far. 

England's point-scorers by name and time Very little there other than Savala is the chosen kicker. 

Because there were only two tries for England, the chart of which players are on the pitch when England score is uninformative. The one for "who is on the pitch when England concede" looks like this. You can see Thompson and Havard coming on and off, and Jez Litten being given the last 20 minutes. 

The two equivalent bar charts for which players were present for point-scoring and point-conceding moments are below. You can see who were rolled on as subs, King, Nsemba, Litten and O'Neill. According to nrl.com King and Nsemba swapped on for each other, and obviously Litten and O'Neill are a straight swap. 

The bar chart of who was on for point-concessions is more interesting.  

The larger number of events reflects both the result and the number of 2-point penalties Tonga scored. In the chart you can see the backs who didn't get subbed off, and the forwards who were. 

The two matrix charts of who was together when England scored and conceded are below. There's not yet enough data for the equivalent network graphs. Because England only had 4 point-scoring moments so the chart is simple, with the players who were together for all 4 points in purple and the ones present for fewer in orange. The one exception is Max King, who is in very pale yellow where he crosses over with Nsemba and O'Neill, suggesting they didn't play together as often when England scored. It makes sense for Nsemba because he was subbed on for him, and O'Neill got subbed off for Litten at around the same time.

Then there's the chart for when England conceded: There's a distinct split between the dark purple, the players most often together when England concede, section, and the second darkest (the darker orange). The latter includes O'Neill, Walters and Nsemba, who were substituted on and off rather than remaining with the main group throughout. Ben Currie has the palest line because he only came on at minute 68. 

Harvard and Walters were the players present for relatively fewer point-conceding moments, being in the darkest purple section for scoring but not for conceding (yes, I know I'm being nice about Wigan players. Yes, it feels wrong). 

It'll be interesting to see what patterns develop over time.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 - Women's Group Stage Network Diagrams

Here are the network diagrams for the group stages for the Women's Rugby League World Cup 2026. 

First, let's look at the non-labelled version of the diagram.  

Which teams are which? France are completely on their own which doesn't bode well for them. 

The other two teams sticking out at the bottom are England and Wales, which also doesn't bode brilliantly. 

Of that top cluster of 5 teams, Fiji, Samoa, New Zealand, Australia and Papua New Guinea, Papua New Guinea are the team sticking out slightly to the right. 

The other thing I've noticed is that while, in the equivalent men's diagram there is a mixture of club teams that the players are from, in the women's most of the national teams have one club team that most players are from (Papua New Guinea are the only team where that's not really the case). 

The community view also does something fun.  

Normally, there's the same number of communities in this view as national teams, or maybe fewer when the teams are deeply enmeshed due to links through club teams. This time, the North Queensland Cowboys are an extra community, I think because they link 5 of the national teams. 

Because of France being separate, it's really hard to identify the central team, particularly the central national team because of the way they are clustered. Central club team is probably Sydney Roosters. 

The Roosters are also the club team with the most representatives, alongside RC Lescure-Arthes XIII, with 12. They are followed by Gold Coast Titans, Wigan Warriors and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs on 11, and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks on 10.

Rugby League World Cup 2026 - Men's Group Stage Network Diagrams

If you would like a nice, in-depth and reasonable preview of the World Cup, may I recommend this from the Maroon Observer. 

Here I am all about pretty pictures and bemoaning there only being 2 Saints players at the World Cup and one of those spent most of the season injured. 

What do the network diagrams look like?  

The two teams that are sticking out are Papua New Guinea and France. Teams stick out if their players play for clubs who don't have a lot of other participants playing for other national teams. If the previous pattern that sticking out = weaker remains true, this means Tonga have been stuffed over by the draw and have a harder route to qualify for the semifinals. They would need to beat one of Samoa or England to qualify, while England and Samoa only have to beat Papua New Guinea and France. No diss on Papua New Guinea intended, because I really want them to do well. 

I think Papua New Guinea are pulled out because so many of their players play for London Broncos who don't have any other representatives while the Cook Islands players are spread over more club teams so the weight of any individual team doesn't pull them out in the same way. 

The club team with the most representatives are the New Zealand Warriors and the Sydney Roosters who both have 13. They are followed by the mysteriously un-city-ied Dolphins and Penrith Panthers on 12, and Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, Melbourne Storm and Toulouse Olympique on 11. 

Because 8 of the teams are clustered together, Fiji are the team in the geometric centre of the graph, while Tonga and Australia are probably the "gravitational" centre. 

Hull Kingston Rovers and South Sydney Rabbitohs are the club teams closest to the physical centre. 

The other thing that strikes me is a suspicion that the NRL must be relatively evenly matched because the Australian squad aren't dominated by one club team, unlike the way say France are by Toulouse Olympique. (Until the first match, I promise not to comment on the excessive number of Wigan players in the England squad. Brian McDermott, you'd better have a good reason for not starting Jez Litten.) 

The one upside to there only being ten teams is that it's relatively quick to make the diagrams so I hope to have the women's and, data permitting, the wheelchair teams graphs ready shortly.

Formula 1 2026 - The Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia

Because F1 2026 makes very little sense. (Although I love that we're back at Sepang. It may be the only track I like because of how pretty the grandstands are.)

Due to the delay between the formation lap nonsense and the actual start, the BBC only have from the second start onwards on BBC Sounds so I have had to resort to watching the Channel 4 highlight show. (I prefer the radio coverage, whole post on why coming soon.)

You know it's going to be one of *those* races when people go off on the formation lap. I frequently make jokes about having seen x, y or z before but I have never seen half the field prevented from functioning by computer failure before. "Starting procedure suspended," indeed.

And then people off in formation lap 2.

I did enjoy the BBC commentators chortling over the work the FIA had to do to ignore its own rules.

Bloody heck at Piastri nearly hitting Albon in the pitlane. It seemed to be Albon's day for it because I am really not sure Stroll should have been released from his pitstop like that.

George Russell only has bad luck.

The gaps between cars, even after the track became dry, were very small, and, because it's a race track, built for racing, there were overtakes. It's almost like they should race in places designed for it, not around regular roads.

Formula 1 2026 - Azerbaijan Grand Prix

It turns out me not watching races doesn't always equal a Ferrari win (busy looking at the Bayeux tapestry, report eventually).

Baku historically has either had an interesting qualifying or an interesting race. Qualifying was exciting, so I wasn't expecting much from the race. I was right not to. I was fascinated that the press all went with "Baku Chaos Bonanza", which is a very blogger take, but this race wasn't, except the Red Bull psychodrama. (And no, BBC, Max did not sound calm.)

BBC suggesting that driver to driver comms would be interesting. Probably, but also more beep than word. It would also end in thumping - see also, Norris and Colapinto in this race. I would also like to bless Mark Priestley for saying "Albon = alright" was the most important thing after his accident.

The other odd thing was the soft tyres lasting longer than the medium. Even on a track with little wear, that is odd. Were the sudden rash of incidents around lap 30 - the Norris spin and the Albon crash - due to tyres wearing out because people were waiting for a safety car and just stayed on their first set of tyres too long?

I hate the new men's rugby league world cup format as much as I hate all Montagues

I was preparing for the usual data visualisation (for the 2021/2 example please see here). Then I looked at the format for the men's tournament. 

Please assume I am here from here on in:

via GIPHY

Dear RFL, I had been nice about you for so long, and you provide me with this nonsense. (Full details here) 

Okay, due to everything, they've had to drop down to 10 teams. I can deal. I will ignore that going begging bowl in hand to the NRL ought to have solved that but okay. 

10 teams, you do two groups of 5, top 2 go through, all's fair in love, war and rugby league. 

But no, they give us a mutant set up with 3 groups, 4 teams in group A, 3 teams each in groups B and C. 

And then, group B only play the teams in group C while C only play B. 

The top two teams in Group A go through. For Groups B and C, though, the two groups are put together in one mega-group, with the top two teams from the combined results going through. And yes, it is possible for both the qualifiers from the group B/C table to come from one group. 

My, very simple, vision gives all teams 4 games. This gives teams 3 games. One of Tonga, Samoa and England will be going home after 3 games. 

In group A, Fiji are the team most duffed up by the draw. I mean, I will be crossing all that is crossable for them to beat either New Zealand or Australia but ... they've been given the shark pool. 

In group B/C, Papua New Guinea have been done over, while, as I said, at least one of Tonga, England and Samoa isn't getting a knock out match. I am more annoyed on Papua New Guinea and Tonga's behalf than England's. 

We're also skipping that, of the co-hosts, Papua New Guinea host 2 games, New Zealand host 1, and Australia get 15 games. Truly well distributed. (I do like that they're making France vs Lebanon and Tonga vs Samoa a double header. It may be the only thing I do like about the way this has been organised.) 

Trying to be positive, Papua New Guinea vs Samoa in Port Moresby ought to be a cracker in terms of atmosphere, ditto Samoa vs Tonga as the game that probably decides who qualifies out of group B/C. That's an excited rating of 2/15 for the group stages (England games, by definition, are not exciting, they're a torment). 

It's going to be an unholy mess, they've almost stacked it so one of the co-hosts can't make it through to the knock out stages and, barring a miracle, Australia can play the reserves in their last group stage game without it affecting anything.

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Italian Grand Prix

The scrutineering data for the Italian Grand Prix is straightforward. Somehow, despite being the first car out, Leclerc isn't the least tested. 

The χ² for the race is 1.38, so any differences aren't statistically significant. 

For the season to date, it looks like this:  

The "tested less than expected" cars are definitely further from expected than the "over-tested" cars. I think that's because the Aston Martin and Cadillac teams have remained what we will politely call "not good", while the rest of the teams have come closer together in terms of results. 

The χ² for the season up to the end of the Italian Grand Prix is 4.32 so any differences aren't statistically significant, but the number is still increasing.

Formula 1 2026 - Spanish Grand Prix

The Madrid Circuit: Of course, if Barcelona has one, Madrid has to have one. Grand Prix in Spain are getting almost as plentiful as they are in the MotoGP.

But the race it reminded me of was Valencia (thanks to L, different L to usual, for helping me twig that it was Valencia I couldn't remember). And the reason it reminded me of Valencia was because Madrid was yet another street circuit where nothing happens.

(So little happened at Valencia that someone literally had to remind me those Grand Prix existed)

I think we just have to be honest about street circuits. If a circuit doesn't have a fair few spots where two and a half cars can get through there will be no overtaking. Circuits that are designed around normal roads will not have that. So if it's a street circuit, there will be no overtaking.

So stop adding more street circuits to the calendar!!!!

Ahem!

I was also amused and slightly charmed by how confused Ted Kravitz was by the existence of mega-sized conference centres like the one in Madrid. Possibly because some of my colleagues have actually been to the one in Madrid and I spend probably too much time in them with work.

The race itself:

The start was exciting, with me going "eep!", "oop!" and similar noises. Then it settled down. The track being that tight meant that any time anyone went for anything, that was the noise I made. But it also meant that almost no one went for anything because disaster was too close.

For once I can't really complain about Ferrari's strategy because they made the most of an opportunity. That curses and pins and voodoo dolls didn't cause another red flag or safety car wasn't their fault. Neither could McLaren be faulted for the unfortunate timing of the virtual safety car with regard to Norris. Mercedes's strategy for Russell was their own fault.

Sainz jnr was heavily hit by the home-town race curse.

It was a bit of a nothing race overall, but what else is expected from a street circuit?

Formula 1 2026 - Italian Grand Prix

I would like to pretend I had something more reasonable to say but ... I hate being a Ferrari fan. Why are they always like this?

I don't, in any way, blame either driver for the first corner - that's racing. I blame the team for not coming up with a working strategy for the one remaining car.

The racing was fun while it lasted, but I trust this has finally ended any belief George Russell has that there is driver equality at Mercedes.

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Dutch Grand Prix

For the purposes of this series, the main thing for the Dutch GP was Hadjar missing it due to injury. Lawson moved up to Red Bull, and Tsunoda was temporarily back in whatever Toro Rosso are called this year (I think it's Racing Bulls, I can't keep up with the constant name changes). 

I didn't think it would affect the actual race data, because hey, that was still just 22 drivers. 

Dutch GP race data itself: Russell was the most scrutinized compared to expected, followed by Hulkenberg and Lindblad, with Stroll, Ocon, Bottas and Bearman the least scrutinized. 

What I don't understand is why Verstappen isn't on the under-scrutinized list given he was out before the end of the first lap, before Bearman who is on that list. 

Most peculiar. 

Any differences weren't statistically significant, with a χ² of 1.38. 

The thing I thought the Hadjar swap out-Tsunoda swap in would affect was the season-to-date ranking. But what I forgot was that, because it's observed vs expected, Tsunoda will still get a value for the one (or more depending on Hadjar's wrist) grand prix he participated in. 

The thing it changes is the χ² critical value, because Tsunoda's appearance increases the degrees of freedom in the data from 21 to 22. The critical χ² value goes up from 32.671 to 33.924. 

The season to date chart looks like this:  

At the top, Bortoleto still stands out as not being like the other cars up there. 

At the bottom, it's still the cars that don't finish a lot, with Stroll and the two Cadillacs down there. 

Tsunoda's car has been tested exactly as much as expected after 1 race, and so has Piastri's after 12 races. 

The χ² value continues to go up, it's now 4.03, still nowhere near significant but rising. I think the cars being tested less than expected are the stronger contributors because their standardised residuals have larger values. 

We also didn't have a random check of a top 10 finisher, so the evidence is really piling up that that is a truly random check that only occurs sometimes and the early-season pattern was just a quirk of the numbers.

Aston Hall

Birmingham, like most of the Industrial Revolution cities, has random remnants of the time before. 

Birmingham in the context of the West Midlands is really interesting because you've got Hereford, Worcester and Lichfield, which were these big, important medieval cities and now they're the small provincial ones lorded over by Birmingham. I think I notice the difference because my part of the North West is all post-Industrial Revolution. 

Aston Hall is one of those remnants - https://www.birminghammuseums.org.uk/aston-hall 

In easy public transport reach of the centre of Birmingham, it counts as a hidden gem. I'd been in Birmingham for 9 years before going (a friend invited me).  

For more information about its history, including that it's the first historic country house bought during that upswell of civic pride in the industrial cities in the late 1800s please read it's Wikipedia article - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aston_Hall 

Front and left side of the hall.  

Probably my favourite photo, because I like the contrast of the purple leaves on the tree with the brown of the bricks of the hall.

 

 Left side of the hall

 

Right side of the hall

The inside is mostly intact, with a bit of restoration here and there. Fancy fireplace And the ceiling in more detail  

In one of those "oh, I should have figured that out" moments, Aston Villa took their name from the area, and that's where Aston Hall also is. The Holte End at Villa Park is named for the Holte family that used to own Aston Hall. Which makes sense, because Villa Park is literally across the road from Aston Hall.  

Possibly because I come from an ex-industrial area, I have a soft spot for museums and architecture not associated with the posh or the clerical, which is why the current wave of buildings falling into disuse and ruin is upsetting. Take this as an example from a now-closed pub local to Aston Hall.  

I enjoyed the visit of Aston Hall. I'd like to go again, because the friends I went with brought their children and their attention span was understandably shorter than mine so the visit had to get cut short.

Formula 1 2026 - Dutch Grand Prix

This will be the last Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort for the foreseeable future - I am sad for Verstappen and his fans, but let us not pretend that F1 doesn't run on money. Also, despite everyone saying how much better than the usual Zandvoort race this was, the driver on pole position still won. And the race was dull. 

The circuit is too narrow for these cars, and they aren't going to be getting narrower, nor is the circuit going to be made wider. 

I can explain the terrible weather at Zandvoort - a colleague was holidaying just south of there. 

Not sure who was main commentating for BBC, and I'm sure it's first time nerves, but there were so many "no, that's not what that word means" malaprops. Like he obvs. knows his stuff but ... I acknowledge it might be me being a little old lady, especially as he said something that made me know I'm older than him - "it's like a one lap shootout if you've played the games" - some of us remember that being the qualifying rules!! (I did love Jennie Gow trying to relax him when she could.) 

The race itself: 

Verstappen finally got caught by the home race curse (I really will need to do that data viz at some point). That crash looked horrid. Well done Nico Hülkenberg avoiding Bortoleto in the chaos.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by FORMULA 1® (@f1)

This video from F1.com has possibly the most wonderful explanation of how Hülkenberg avoided Bortoleto (certainly the one with the coolest graphics) 

I think the unexpected red flag plus bonus formation lap due to Bearman really threw several teams' strategy, because I can't understand the strategy for Perez or Piastri. Ferrari's bizarre strategy choices (and the drivers disobeying everything) comes as standard. 

As does McLaren screwing up a pitstop - I thought they'd stopped those mistakes! (I do not expect better of Ferrari pitstops) 

I am taking this race as proof I was right and Tsunoda is good and he deserves a seat. And yes, I know that if every driver I wanted to have an F1 seat had one, it would be 40 drivers deep.

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Hungarian Grand Prix

Just in time for the season to restart :) 

Scrutineering at the Hungarian Grand Prix:  

The difference from expected is lower than at the Belgian Grand Prix, with an χ² of 1.22. That's because of the number of cars that were tested as much as expected, 10 out of the 22. 

The three cars least tested compared to expected were the three cars that didn't finish, those of Perez, Bottas and Piastri. 

While Gasly was the most over-tested compared to expected, Hulkenberg gets to celebrate his first points of the season by having the third-highest number of tests relative to expectation. 

The season to date: Even though it doesn't come close to being significant, despite the increasing number of events, the χ² is increasing and is now up to 3.76. 

The top four most over tested are Norris, Bortoleto, Hamilton and Russell. Bortoleto still stands out in that crowd. I know it's probably still the effect of relatively small numbers, but he's not up there based on performance or number of finishes; other drivers have finished more races and still aren't as high up as he is. 

Stroll, Bottas and Perez are the drivers least tested compared to expected and are the bottom three in the championship. There is a relationship between not finishing and not being tested, because some tests are only performed on the cars that finish. The car starting to work moved Norris and Piastri out of the bottom and it will be interesting to see if Aston Martin's improvements do the same for Stroll and Alonso. 

No drivers have been tested exactly as much as expected but Gasly and Piastri come close on +0.053 and - 0.053 respectively. 

At the halfway point of the season we have an increasing χ² value, some movement at the bottom as the cars become more reliable and Bortoleto being over-tested compared to his results (even if the difference isn't statistically significant).

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Belgian Grand Prix

Well I don't know if they're picking on *your* driver but they are picking on mine. Look how over-tested Leclerc is compared to the others! 

I am being a little ridiculous, but Leclerc's standardised residual of 0.83 over expected is the third highest single race value after Norris in Barcelona (+1.30), and Lawson at the Austrian Grand Prix (+1.06). 

Entirely as expected, Perez, Stroll and Russell who didn't finish are 3 of the four least tested compared to expected. 

The difference isn't statistically significant (χ² = 3.201), but this time, it's my driver. 

The Belgian Grand Prix checks were slightly different, and there were more of them than usual (36, which is the second highest of the season, the highest being at the Australian Grand Prix which had 37 checks as the expected number but that's also the first Grand Prix of the season). 

The season to date:  

The difference are not statistically significant, with an χ² = 3.746. 

Interestingly, the χ² is increasing, and has been for the last 4 races, when, at this point in the season, you'd be expecting it to start going down. 

Possibly this is because of changes in reliability as the teams improve their cars (or try to) during the season. The Aston Martins, Cadillacs, Williams and Audis keep being unreliable and not finishing, while the McLarens seem to have sorted themselves out so are being checked more often and that's disturbing the numbers. 

Norris is now the most over-checked car compared to expected. He's followed by Bortoleto, Hamilton and Russell. One of these drivers is not like the others. 

Not sure why Bortoleto is that high given he's 14th in the standings. On the other hand, he has one of the lowest DNF rates (having only failed to finish 1 race out of the 10 so far). 

Stroll, Alonso, Bottas, Albon and Hulkenberg are the least tested compared to expected. That makes sense given the number of DNFs between them. They are also the bottom 5 in the championship. 

I find it amusing the Audi have one driver in the most over-tested bucket and one in the most undertested. 

No drivers have been tested exactly as many times as expected, but Colapinto, Lindblad and Piastri are almost on 0, being at +0.056 or -0.056. 

The Hungarian Grand Prix results will be the midway point of the season. We'll see if the χ² starts to come back down.

Jojo Rabbit

There is a reason Jojo Rabbit was my top film of 2020. 

I'm going to go back to how I described the film in my 2020 film round up: 

"This is a masterwork. There is no aspect of the film that I can't heap heavy praise on - the acting, the writing, the soundtrack, the costume, the acting (I do not care that I am repeating myself). It is a fantastic, human, film that I can't praise enough." 

I'll expand that sort of chronologically. 

1: I can see why Taika Waititi chose to play Hitler. It means there's no chance anyone's going to use clips of him to glorify Hitler. It felt like that was a tightrope that he was very aware of, that the message of the film was that *that* was the terrifying thing, Nazis were average human beings doing terrible things, without glorifying any of them. And I think he mostly threaded that needle (the shot at the end of the Gestapo looking utterly pathetic without the coats for example), with the possible exception of Klenzendorf leaning slightly too close to the legend that the Wehrmacht were alright. 

I can also see why they got the Heil Hitlers out of the way at the start so everyone could get their nervous laughter out early. 

2: Really, threaded that needle, because the Nazis were very terrifying and pathetic at the same time. 

3: Scarlett Johansson did not get the plaudits she deserved. I don't know if this was released during one of the "let's all diss ScarJo" waves but why didn't she get all the plaudits?! 

She has such a difficult role, because she plays a woman who is doing her best in a difficult time, when doing the thing she has chosen to do (and the film makes it clear that it is a choice) could get her killed and the person most likely to report her to the authorities is her own son. 

And she's full of whimsy despite everything, or possibly against everything. 

(Another thing I liked was that the film lets you fill in the gaps. In any way you choose. Is Jojo's father dead, in the army, in the resistance, is there even a father figure in his life or is she just pretending?) 

4: To an extent Yorgi is the most important character because he's who Jojo could have been if he hadn't had the experiences he has during the story. And we know there's no harm in Yorgi, he's just been brainwashed. He still believes the things Jojo can no longer believe. 

And again that loops back to the film's message that the terror is, everyone involved is just another human. See also Jojo's mother shouting at some soldiers to go home to their mothers. 

5: Holy heck, Roman Griffin Davis and Thomasin McKenzie, who were children at the time, had the most difficult roles and nailed them. 

Totally nailed them. 

Excellent work by them (and whoever cast them) 

6: No really, I can't recommend this film enough. It's one of the very few films I would say everyone should watch. It's just marvellous.

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the British Grand Prix

At the start of the season, every second race featured a random check of a top 10 finisher. This pattern stopped about 6 races in, and I wondered if that was because of less than 15 drivers finishing. 

The British Grand Prix gave an opportunity to test this. Barcelona had technically provided one as well, but several of the “finishers” there had actually stopped on track and were only classified because they had completed more than 90% of the race distance. 

There was no check at the British Grand Prix even though there were 19 finishers. That suggests that this inspection is not a mandatory check, but something the Technical Committee can choose to carry out occasionally. 

Scrutineering at the British Grand Prix: While Car 5 (Bortoleto) looks like he's been checked far more the expected tests on first glance, compared to a statistically significant point of 2 standardised residuals, it really isn't. This is supported by the results having an overall χ² of 1.2216, when it would need to be >32.671 to be significant.

Scrutineering up to the British Grand Prix:  

The χ² over the season so far is 3.1607, which is not significant.  

The order is starting to make sense, with Hamilton and Russell who are doing well being the most over-scrutinised, while Stroll, Albon, Alonso, Hulkenberg and Bottas, whose cars keep breaking on them, being the most under-scrutinised. Antonelli has only been tested as many times as expected even though he is doing very well, but the number of events is small enough that that is not implausible.

Formula 1 2026 - Hungarian Grand Prix

Overall, the race wasn't that interesting - ignoring Verstappen and Hamilton's efforts to provide interest and entertainment, with help from Liam Lawson, who I'm sure wasn't influenced by the team he drives for. I'm not sure if it's because the track is that narrow that even the new regulations can't produce overtakes (plus the tyres going off in unexpected ways).

I'm not saying Aston Martin's season has been pants, but both cars finishing is being treated as a great success. At the same time, with one set of upgrades, they're boosted into the midfield.

Piastri appears to have inherited the terrible Antipodean luck of his manager. Possibly spending too much time in Australia explains why Bottas's brakes catching fire. Seriously, Cadillac, sort that out.

On the other hand, George Russell's luck isn't much better.

Withdrawals from the 2026 Tour de France

Unlike 2025, this year, riders were cut due to being over the time limit.  

The two unfortunate riders were Kellen O'Brien and Anthon Charmig. 

It's interesting to see how the pattern of withdrawals changes over the 3 "weeks" (weeks being used loosely here as always).  

In week 1, mid-stage abandonments are the most common, with 50% of all week 1 withdrawals being abandonments. 

In week 2, this switches to being a majority of "did not start" type withdrawals, possibly as the race caught up with people. 

Then, in week 3, it swings back to being mostly mid-stage abandonments, possibly because people have reached the "I'll be damned if I don't get to Paris after all this" mind-set. 

This pattern is repeated if you look at it as "withdrawal type by week". Which stages did the withdrawals happen on? 

This year, while a couple of the stages did have a few more withdrawals they're reasonably evenly spaced. Stage 6, the one with the most withdrawals, unsurprisingly, was the Tourmalet. Stage 15 was the one with Vingegaard's crash, while stage 13 was the one with Gaviria's horrible crash.  

You are looking at someone smug that she had figured out how to recolour charts in Excel. Because the "still ins" were a drab grey. I prefer a thematic yellow. 

Lotto-Intermarche, Caja Rural-Seguros RGA and Soudal Quick-Step were all down to 5 riders. Lidl-Trek, Bahrain Victorious, Cofidis, Decathlon, EF Education Easy Post, Ineos, Total Energies and Astana all retained all their riders. 

There's no real patterns, to this or in the Kaplan-Meier survival curve split by team.  

If the team names and colours stick for more than 5 minutes, I may recolour this to match team colours, but 23 teams is a lot of colours to keep track of. 

For the Tour as a whole, the Kaplan-Meier looks like this.  

My takeaway is that this time there was a long, slow decline, with no sudden drops, not even on the Tourmalet. 

I have been doing this for far too long and so can compare this year's Kaplan-Meier to those of the preceding 6 years. 2026 fits into the same pattern as the others, with only 2021 standing out.

Formula 1 2026 - Belgian Grand Prix

 I had a moment of revelation at the start of this grand prix - around about when Leclerc and Hamilton moved past Verstappen and Russell - this Ferrari car isn't bad. It's not as good as the Mercedes, but the Mercedes is a good car, even if it's not as good as *that* rocket ship Mercedes or that Red Bull. See also sort of keeping up with the Mercedes cars after they overtake.

I'm not quite sure what to do with the information.

Mostly because having a good car isn't enough, you need good drivers (we've got that) and a solid strategy team ... which Ferrari haven't got. This time it was Hamilton who was affected by strategy gremlins. Now I am guessing they had to do some quick thinking following the 5 second time penalty but they didn't seem to have communicated the revised plan to their driver which is a really quick way of losing the driver's trust.

Hamilton did seem to be having a day of it; between the penalty and the pit-stop incident and the "not doing what he wanted doing to his front wing" and ... Thankfully the pit crew member appears to be fine.

I am of the camp that think Hamilton got walloped with a penalty where Leclerc didn't because Russell ended up out while Piastri managed to get the car to the finish.

As to other non-Ferrari matters (other than Bottas holding up Leclerc to allow Antonelli to catch him and my tin foil hat insisting it was deliberate), Hadjar and Verstappen appear to be the pairing Red Bull have been looking for for years. Not sure if that's because the way the cars are set up under the current regulations doesn't suit Verstappen as well as previous cars or Hadjar is that good (I tend towards "Hadjar is that good" but I acknowledge my biases). Racing Bull and Alpine seem to be coming along nicely, as do Audi. For Aston Martin, the only way is up. I'm intrigued about their update coming at Hungary.

World Cup 2026 - Final Network Visualisation

The unlabelled network graph looks like this: Even without the labels, you can probably guess the big circles are Spain and Argentina ;) 

The labelled graph looks like this:  

It's the battle of the Atlético Madrid players! 

Atlético Madrid have 9 players left, 3 playing for Spain, 6 for Argentina. 

Barcelona have 8, but they all play for Spain. 

Arsenal and Athletic Bilbao are next, with 3 players each. All 6 of those players play for Spain. 

Atlético Madrid, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Bayer Leverkusen have players on both teams. 

Chelsea, somehow, are the club team closest to the centre of the diagram. 

No prediction at this stage, the two teams are understandably equidistant.

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Austrian Grand Prix

Some interesting points from the underlying data: The Austrian GP featured the first test where the check said "all classified cars" rather than all cars, or giving the number of the car tested. It was the steering wheel test. I have been assuming that "all cars" meant all cars entered. I think the wording of this check supports that but I want to give that caveat on all this data. 

The Austrian GP race scrutineering itself:  

No, I don't know what Liam Lawson did to the scrutineers. 

Obviously, it's not that extreme, because his standard residual of 1.06 doesn't hit the value of 2 that suggests significance but that's a lot of tests on one car. 

The difference from expected is not statistically significant with an χ² of 2.88. 

Season to date:  

The difference from expected is not statistically significant with an χ² of 3.06. 

The top 3 most over-scrutinized (Russell, Hamilton and Norris) make some sort of fits with their performance, because they are 3 of the top 5 at this point of the season. 

Similarly, two of the bottom 3 make sense, because the Aston Martins of Stroll and Alonso have not been going long distances so might miss some of the post-race tests, ditto for Bottas and Albon who have retired from half the races and a quarter of the races respectively. Hadjar being so low down still makes no sense, he's only not completed 2 races but all but one of the rest of the races he's been in the top 10. It's getting to the point where I want to triple check all my numbers, he's that low. 

For the British Grand Prix results, I'm going to be looking for that random top 10 finisher check, providing there are at least 15 finishers (which *spoiler* there were). If it doesn't happen, I may have to conclude there is no pattern.

World Cup 2026 - Semifinal Network Visualisation

I have listened to L's editorial guidance and am posting the post with a deadline. Austrian and British Grand Prix scrutineering posts are in the works, as is the first of the weekly Tour de France posts. I am making no promises on timelines because a work project is stealing my time. 

We're down to four teams and the network graph looks like this.  

The teams are close together, but one sticks out.  

Sort of understandably, being as Argentina is on a different continent to the other finalists, they are the team slightly further away from the others. 

The thing I find intriguing is that each national team has one club team close to it, because that club team provides a lot of national team representatives. For Argentina, it is Atlético Madrid (my heart belongs to Diego Simeone), England have Manchester City, France have Paris Saint Germain and Spain have Barcelona. 

It shows the financial strength of European football that the club team with the most players playing for Argentina is Atlético Madrid, not a team closer to home. 

The club teams with the most representatives left are Barcelona with 10, Atlético Madrid with 9 and Arsenal with 8. 

England are just about the team closest to the centre, with Chelsea the club team closest. 

There's something interesting going on in the community view. Although there are only 4 teams left, there are 8 communities. Labelled, it's clear that four of the communities are the nations, and the others are those teams that link more than one country (with some exceptions).  

The thing that intrigues me is that some teams aren't separate communities even though they link multiple teams. 

I think that happens when most of the players play for one national team, for instance of the five Aston Villa players left, three play for England. 

Chelsea will have a player in the final no matter what combination of teams wins the semifinal matches. 

Making predictions at this point is almost impossible, but the diagram says England and unclear because of how equidistant Spain and France are from the centre.