Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Barcelona Grand Prix

The scrutineering numbers at the Barcelona Grand Prix did some interesting things. 

The Barcelona Grand Prix: Bar chart showing how often cars were scrutinized compared to the expected number at the Barcelona Grand Prix.  The values are displayed as a standardised residual.  Car 1 (Norris) is the most over-scrutinized compared to expected, with a value of 1.3.  He is followed by car 63 (Russell) with a value of 0.74 and car 44 (Hamilton) with a value of 0.37.  Cars 14 (Alonso), 16 (Leclerc), 23 (Albon), 77 (Bottas) and 87 (Bearman) are the most under-scrutinized compared to expected with a value of -0.37.  Cars 6 (Hadjar), 10 (Gasly), 11 (Perez), 18 (Stroll), 31 (Ocon) and 55 (Sainz jnr) were tested exactly as many times as expected. 

I have no idea what Norris has done to require that much scrutineering. 

I mean, with an χ² of 3.23 it's not significant, but, with a standardised residual of 1.30, that's the largest deviation from expected we’ve seen all season. (The full series can be found here

The other thing that interests me is that there was no random check on one of the top 10 finishers despite there being more than 15 cars officially classified as finishing, which throws off my theory that it's every second race if there are 15 or more finishers. However, finishers 15, 16 and 17 were only technically finishers, they stopped out on track but were classified as they completed more than 90% of the race distance. It's possible that race scrutineering treats those sort of finishers differently. The next time my theory can be tested will be the British Grand Prix. 

The Season as a Whole: Bar chart showing how often cars were scrutinized compared to the expected number up to the Barcelona Grand Prix.  The values are displayed as a standardised residual.  Car 44 (Hamilton) is the most over-scrutinized compared to expected, with a value of 0.73.  He is followed by car 63 (Russell) with a value of 0.53 and cars 1 (Norris) and 3 (Verstappen) with a value of 0.40.  Cars 14 (Alonso) is the most under-tested compared to expected with a value of -0.53, followed by Hadjar with a value of -0.47 then cars 18 (Stroll) and 23 (Albon).  Cars 12 (Antonelli) and 30 (Lawson) have been tested exactly as many times as expected. 

The difference to expected is not statistically significant with an χ² of 2.39. 

Hadjar being that undertested still confounds me given how well he's been doing. Unlike Alonso, Stroll and Albon, his results don’t obviously fit the “cars that don’t finish get fewer checks” pattern. 

Hamilton, Russell, Norris and Verstappen being over-tested compared to expected makes sense, they've been doing well. 

Antonelli only having been tested exactly as often as expected shows the effect of small numbers (there only having been 7 races so far).

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