Wednesday, 8 July 2026

World Cup 2026 - Quarterfinal Network Visualisation

(The Austrian Grand Prix scrutineering post, and the British Grand Prix summary and scrutineering post are coming, I just thought this was a bit more urgent) 

Okay, last's round's predictions were not as good as they could have been. I got Brazil vs Norway right, and was right to suspect England vs Mexico would be close, got France, Argentina and Morocco's results correct, but was way out on Belgium vs United States and got Switzerland vs Colombia wrong (although I said it would be close). I was right that Spain being pulled out of the centre of the diagram by all their Barcelona players made it hard to predict their result from the diagram. 

Also, I didn't predict how close Egypt got to beating Argentina. 

What do the quarterfinal diagrams look like? 

The unlabelled diagram looks like this: Unlabelled network graph of the teams in the quarterfinals.  Smaller circles representing smaller numbers of interactions are red and the colour moves towards creamy white as the circles get larger.  They now looks like a very squiggly circle, or a very wobbly rhomboid, with only one team in the middle. Labelled it looks like this: Labelled network graph of the teams in the quarterfinals.  Smaller circles representing smaller numbers of interactions are red and the colour moves towards creamy white as the circles get larger.  They now looks like a very squiggly circle, or a very wobbly rhomboid, with only one team in the middle.  Spain, at the top of the graph, is where 1 would be on a clock.  Following the clock around, there is England at about 2, Belgium at 5, Morocco at 6, Switzerland at 8, Norway just past 9 and Argentina at 11.  France are in the middle. France are the national team closest to the centre, with Paris Saint-Germain the club team closest. 

The club teams with the most representatives left in are Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Arsenal with 10. 

The average number of degrees of contact each circle has is 1.364. 

The number of communities is still one per team, so 8. 

The unlabelled community view looks like this: Community view of the above.  Full description in the labelled version. Labelled, it looks like this: Labelled network graph of the community view of the teams in the quarterfinals.  Smaller circles representing smaller numbers of interactions are red and the colour moves towards creamy white as the circles get larger.  They now looks like a very squiggly circle, or a very wobbly rhomboid, with only one team in the middle.  Spain, at the top of the graph, is where 1 would be on a clock and is orange-pink.  Following the clock around, there is England at about 2 (blue), Belgium at 5 (olive green), Morocco at 6 (sort of turquoise), Switzerland at 8 (grey), Norway just past 9 (pink) and Argentina at 11 (orange).  France are in the middle and green. 
What about my predictions? 

It's much harder at this point, with the teams other than France pretty much equidistant from the centre, and no "gravitational" clump. 

France vs Morocco - Diagram says France 

Spain vs Belgium - Diagram says Belgium, although I think that's because Spain are still pulled out of the centre by all those Barcelona players. On the other hand, anything can happen in knock out football. 

Norway vs England - Norway just (that sound you can hear is L cursing me) 

Argentina vs Switzerland - Diagram says Switzerland. I think that's the Atlético Madrid players pulling Argentina out. Also [Legal team have redacted a paragraph-long rant about exactly how many World Cups the referees are going to give this Argentina team.] Switzerland could do it ... (I feel I need to add a conflict of interest statement, I drew Switzerland in a sweepstake at work.)

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