Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Hungarian Grand Prix

Just in time for the season to restart :) 

Scrutineering at the Hungarian Grand Prix:  

The difference from expected is lower than at the Belgian Grand Prix, with an χ² of 1.22. That's because of the number of cars that were tested as much as expected, 10 out of the 22. 

The three cars least tested compared to expected were the three cars that didn't finish, those of Perez, Bottas and Piastri. 

While Gasly was the most over-tested compared to expected, Hulkenberg gets to celebrate his first points of the season by having the third-highest number of tests relative to expectation. 

The season to date: Even though it doesn't come close to being significant, despite the increasing number of events, the χ² is increasing and is now up to 3.76. 

The top four most over tested are Norris, Bortoleto, Hamilton and Russell. Bortoleto still stands out in that crowd. I know it's probably still the effect of relatively small numbers, but he's not up there based on performance or number of finishes; other drivers have finished more races and still aren't as high up as he is. 

Stroll, Bottas and Perez are the drivers least tested compared to expected and are the bottom three in the championship. There is a relationship between not finishing and not being tested, because some tests are only performed on the cars that finish. The car starting to work moved Norris and Piastri out of the bottom and it will be interesting to see if Aston Martin's improvements do the same for Stroll and Alonso. 

No drivers have been tested exactly as much as expected but Gasly and Piastri come close on +0.053 and - 0.053 respectively. 

At the halfway point of the season we have an increasing χ² value, some movement at the bottom as the cars become more reliable and Bortoleto being over-tested compared to his results (even if the difference isn't statistically significant).

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Belgian Grand Prix

Well I don't know if they're picking on *your* driver but they are picking on mine. Look how over-tested Leclerc is compared to the others! 

I am being a little ridiculous, but Leclerc's standardised residual of 0.83 over expected is the third highest single race value after Norris in Barcelona (+1.30), and Lawson at the Austrian Grand Prix (+1.06). 

Entirely as expected, Perez, Stroll and Russell who didn't finish are 3 of the four least tested compared to expected. 

The difference isn't statistically significant (χ² = 3.201), but this time, it's my driver. 

The Belgian Grand Prix checks were slightly different, and there were more of them than usual (36, which is the second highest of the season, the highest being at the Australian Grand Prix which had 37 checks as the expected number but that's also the first Grand Prix of the season). 

The season to date:  

The difference are not statistically significant, with an χ² = 3.746. 

Interestingly, the χ² is increasing, and has been for the last 4 races, when, at this point in the season, you'd be expecting it to start going down. 

Possibly this is because of changes in reliability as the teams improve their cars (or try to) during the season. The Aston Martins, Cadillacs, Williams and Audis keep being unreliable and not finishing, while the McLarens seem to have sorted themselves out so are being checked more often and that's disturbing the numbers. 

Norris is now the most over-checked car compared to expected. He's followed by Bortoleto, Hamilton and Russell. One of these drivers is not like the others. 

Not sure why Bortoleto is that high given he's 14th in the standings. On the other hand, he has one of the lowest DNF rates (having only failed to finish 1 race out of the 10 so far). 

Stroll, Alonso, Bottas, Albon and Hulkenberg are the least tested compared to expected. That makes sense given the number of DNFs between them. They are also the bottom 5 in the championship. 

I find it amusing the Audi have one driver in the most over-tested bucket and one in the most undertested. 

No drivers have been tested exactly as many times as expected, but Colapinto, Lindblad and Piastri are almost on 0, being at +0.056 or -0.056. 

The Hungarian Grand Prix results will be the midway point of the season. We'll see if the χ² starts to come back down.

Jojo Rabbit

There is a reason Jojo Rabbit was my top film of 2020. 

I'm going to go back to how I described the film in my 2020 film round up: 

"This is a masterwork. There is no aspect of the film that I can't heap heavy praise on - the acting, the writing, the soundtrack, the costume, the acting (I do not care that I am repeating myself). It is a fantastic, human, film that I can't praise enough." 

I'll expand that sort of chronologically. 

1: I can see why Taika Waititi chose to play Hitler. It means there's no chance anyone's going to use clips of him to glorify Hitler. It felt like that was a tightrope that he was very aware of, that the message of the film was that *that* was the terrifying thing, Nazis were average human beings doing terrible things, without glorifying any of them. And I think he mostly threaded that needle (the shot at the end of the Gestapo looking utterly pathetic without the coats for example), with the possible exception of Klenzendorf leaning slightly too close to the legend that the Wehrmacht were alright. 

I can also see why they got the Heil Hitlers out of the way at the start so everyone could get their nervous laughter out early. 

2: Really, threaded that needle, because the Nazis were very terrifying and pathetic at the same time. 

3: Scarlett Johansson did not get the plaudits she deserved. I don't know if this was released during one of the "let's all diss ScarJo" waves but why didn't she get all the plaudits?! 

She has such a difficult role, because she plays a woman who is doing her best in a difficult time, when doing the thing she has chosen to do (and the film makes it clear that it is a choice) could get her killed and the person most likely to report her to the authorities is her own son. 

And she's full of whimsy despite everything, or possibly against everything. 

(Another thing I liked was that the film lets you fill in the gaps. In any way you choose. Is Jojo's father dead, in the army, in the resistance, is there even a father figure in his life or is she just pretending?) 

4: To an extent Yorgi is the most important character because he's who Jojo could have been if he hadn't had the experiences he has during the story. And we know there's no harm in Yorgi, he's just been brainwashed. He still believes the things Jojo can no longer believe. 

And again that loops back to the film's message that the terror is, everyone involved is just another human. See also Jojo's mother shouting at some soldiers to go home to their mothers. 

5: Holy heck, Roman Griffin Davis and Thomasin McKenzie, who were children at the time, had the most difficult roles and nailed them. 

Totally nailed them. 

Excellent work by them (and whoever cast them) 

6: No really, I can't recommend this film enough. It's one of the very few films I would say everyone should watch. It's just marvellous.

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the British Grand Prix

At the start of the season, every second race featured a random check of a top 10 finisher. This pattern stopped about 6 races in, and I wondered if that was because of less than 15 drivers finishing. 

The British Grand Prix gave an opportunity to test this. Barcelona had technically provided one as well, but several of the “finishers” there had actually stopped on track and were only classified because they had completed more than 90% of the race distance. 

There was no check at the British Grand Prix even though there were 19 finishers. That suggests that this inspection is not a mandatory check, but something the Technical Committee can choose to carry out occasionally. 

Scrutineering at the British Grand Prix: While Car 5 (Bortoleto) looks like he's been checked far more the expected tests on first glance, compared to a statistically significant point of 2 standardised residuals, it really isn't. This is supported by the results having an overall χ² of 1.2216, when it would need to be >32.671 to be significant.

Scrutineering up to the British Grand Prix:  

The χ² over the season so far is 3.1607, which is not significant.  

The order is starting to make sense, with Hamilton and Russell who are doing well being the most over-scrutinised, while Stroll, Albon, Alonso, Hulkenberg and Bottas, whose cars keep breaking on them, being the most under-scrutinised. Antonelli has only been tested as many times as expected even though he is doing very well, but the number of events is small enough that that is not implausible.

Formula 1 2026 - Hungarian Grand Prix

Overall, the race wasn't that interesting - ignoring Verstappen and Hamilton's efforts to provide interest and entertainment, with help from Liam Lawson, who I'm sure wasn't influenced by the team he drives for. I'm not sure if it's because the track is that narrow that even the new regulations can't produce overtakes (plus the tyres going off in unexpected ways).

I'm not saying Aston Martin's season has been pants, but both cars finishing is being treated as a great success. At the same time, with one set of upgrades, they're boosted into the midfield.

Piastri appears to have inherited the terrible Antipodean luck of his manager. Possibly spending too much time in Australia explains why Bottas's brakes catching fire. Seriously, Cadillac, sort that out.

On the other hand, George Russell's luck isn't much better.