World Cup Final Predictions

I think I really ought to go for France just because I predicted them before the start of the tournament.

I think they'll do it, because they've got that little bit more quality throughout.  Before anyone says anything about *that* Croatian midfield, I know they're good, and I love them, but the thing they don't like, real, proper Modric and Rakitic kryptonite, is someone who harries them and doesn't give them space on the ball.  In N'Golo Kante, France have an excellent proponent of that.

I am looking forward to the tiny midfielder football off.

While Lloris hasn't had one of his regular clangers, I have the greatest of doubts about Danijel Subašić's goalkeeping.  Croatia also have Vida, who is one of those players *things* happen to and I fear the next one is going to be a bad thing.

France also have Mbappe.  Who is better than advertised!

There's also more than a small part of me that wants France to win just for Didier Deschamps who I loved as a player.

2018 World Cup Semifinal Predictions

Of the quarterfinals, the only one I called wrong was Brazil vs Belgium and I was very happy to be wrong.

I was unfortunately right that Uruguay minus Cavani lack bite, well, they still had Suarez, but that's the wrong kind of bite ;)

I am both sad for Russia and happy for Croatia.

As for the semifinals, I cannot separate France and Belgium.  France do have the feeling of having reached the semis without difficulty, and they have Mbappe (and Didier Deschamps).  On the other hand, N'Golo Kante and Mbappe apart, Belgium may have the better player in most positions - I really rate the Alderwiereld / Vertonghen combination, Lloris hasn't had his monthly clanger yet in the French goal and that Belgian midfield are terrifyingly good.

I will stick with my France prediction from before the start of the World Cup.

It should at least be a good match.

Croatia vs England may well not be as good.  But it should be interesting.  Because um, yeah, they're reasonably well matched.  Or rather I have the greatest doubts about the Croatian goalie and defence, but their midfield are stonking.

Logic says Croatia, an unfortunate promise to be nicer to England says England.

2018 World Cup Quarterfinal Predictions

My second round predictions were:

France vs Argentina - predicted France, France won, the match was every bit as close as I thought it would be.

Uruguay vs Portugal - predicted Uruguay, Uruguay won, a much better match than I expected. I do hope Cavani is all right for the quarterfinals.

Spain vs Russia - predicted Spain, Russia won because this World Cup is glorious. My Spanish boss got the details right about what would happen in his doom-laden prediction beforehand.

Croatia vs Denmark - predicted Croatia, was right, damn it.

Mexico vs Brazil - predicted Brazil, was right, damn it all.

Belgium vs Japan - predicted Belgium, was right, damn it all again, and was even more right about it being closer than people expected. Japan are a good side and I don't get why people don't realise that.

Sweden vs Switzerland - predicted Switzerland, was wrong.

England vs Colombia - predicted lots of goals and Colombia and was wrong on both counts.

Predictions for the quarterfinals:

France vs Uruguay - on the one hand, France were my pre-tournament pick to win the whole thing and have been solid. On the other hand, my heart belongs to Diego Godin. Being rational, I think France will win, especially if Cavani is injured but I am hoping for Uruguay.

Russia vs Croatia - logic says Croatia. Logic has little to do with this Russian team. I think Croatia will do it though.

Brazil vs Belgium - probably Brazil but ...

Sweden vs England - this will either be really exciting or the dullest match ever. Sweden have enough about them to frustrate England but I don't know if they have enough going forward to beat them so I will go with England.

2018 World Cup Second Round Predictions

I think I did alright with my first round predictions, I got 13/16 right.

Group A
Prediction = Uruguay and Egypt
Actual = Uruguay and Russia

I did not expect Russia to achieve the dizzy height of competence, even with the home team bounce.  I was wrong.  I also didn't expect Egypt to be so flat.  It's more than just Salah being injured.  Everyone else appeared to be lacking in energy.  Flat might not be a harsh enough term for a team that somehow lost to Saudi Arabia.

Group B
Prediction = Spain and Portugal
Actual = Spain and Portugal

But it was a lot closer than I expected.  Poor Iran :(

Group C
Prediction = France and Denmark
Actual = France and Denmark

This one went more or less the way I expected it to go.

Group D
Prediction = Argentina and Croatia
Actual = Croatia and Argentina

Got the right teams, the wrong way round, but I doubt anyone saw the Argentina vs Croatia result coming

Group E
Prediction = Brazil and Serbia
Actual = Brazil and Switzerland, due to refereeing malfeasance.  I will be nice about Switzerland never!

Group F
Prediction = Germany and Mexico
Actual = Mexico and Sweden

Well that was unexpected!!  I should have known no good would come of a team that lost to Austria in the warm ups.

Group G
Prediction = Belgium and England
Actual = Belgium and England

Bang on, because I knew England wouldn't beat Belgium.  I know people will say it wasn't their starting 11, but I remain convinced it's not the country with the best A team that wins World Cups, it's the one with the best A minus team.

Group H
Prediction = Colombia and Japan
Actual = Colombia and Japan - bang on.

<b>Second round matches:</b>

Uruguay vs Portugal = Which should be joyous, if only for Pepe vs Suarez.  I suspect it will be a cagey affair that one team will sneak.  My heart says Uruguay, my head says Portugal.  I will go with Uruguay.

France vs Argentina = I didn't see this match coming and it may be the only thing that stops my vision of a glorious French victory at this World Cup.  Then again, while France haven't been inspiring going forward, Argentina have been insecure at the back so France could still do it.

Brazil vs Mexico - While I fear Brazil will win this, vamos Mexico.

Belgium vs Japan - probably Belgium but closer than people expect.

Spain vs Russia - despite my Spanish boss's deep misgivings, Spain.

Croatia vs Denmark - which should be a good match if nothing else.  If Croatia keep it together, they should win.

Sweden vs Switzerland - could also be good.  Switzerland to sneak it.

Colombia vs England - Very good attack, iffy at the back vs good at the front and not quite as iffy at the back.  So lots of goals, and probably Colombia win.

2018 World Cup Predictions

I've made my World Cup predictions. I used the Manchester Evening News Predictor. I suspect it's the same one that all the local newspaper websites are using but it's the only one that didn't crash my laptop with its video.

Using some serious guesswork as to the scores, I have the follow teams qualifying from the group stages. The first-named team is the team I think will be top of the group.

Group A - Uruguay and Egypt
B - Spain and Portugal
C - France and Denmark
D - Argentina and Croatia
E - Brazil and Serbia
F - Germany and Mexico
G - Belgium and England
H - Colombia and Japan

Which leads to the following matches in the first knock out round: 

Uruguay vs Portugal - Portugal. After possibly the worst game of football you will ever see.
France vs Croatia - France
Spain vs Egypt - Spain
Argentina vs Denmark - Argentina
Brazil vs Mexico - Brazil, although P will be annoyed at me for saying that.
Belgium vs Japan - I've gone with Belgium winning, but I am by no means sure. If someone unexpected is going to go out here, it may be Belgium.
Germany vs Serbia - Germany
Colombia vs England - England, just

If I am right, the quarterfinals will be:
Portugal vs France - France
Brazil vs Belgium - Brazil (but it will be closer than people think)
Spain vs Argentina - Argentina
Germany vs England - Germany (I get complaints from friend L for this. Because he thinks England can beat Germany because England have *potential* and Germany lost to Austria. England always have potential!)

Semifinals:
 France vs Brazil - France, I have a feeling about them. I will be upset when I am wrong but I have a feeling.
Argentina vs Germany - Argentina (because Germany did lose to Austria after all.)

So I think the final will be:

 France vs Argentina with France winning! because I have a feeling.

Rugby League World Cup Semi Final Predictions

The matches are Australia vs Fiji and Tonga vs England.

Australia vs Fiji:

I know what people are saying, that we have been here before and it ends badly for Fiji.  And yes, it did, because I was quite literally there, but I believe Ashton Sims when he says that this Fiji team are better than that Fiji team, not just because I'd believe Ashton Sims if he said the moon was made of cheese.  And this is not a classic Australia side.

Such tiny hopes are what sports fans hangs their dreams on.

Tonga vs England:

Tonga are beatable, and Lebanon did themselves more than proud.  May all our national teams perform with as much heart.

I have given up on England.  I know I always say that, and I know that they are in the semifinal which is what they were expected to do, and therefore better than what New Zealand have done, but at the same time, none of the performances have been all that good, and Kallum Watkins and Jermaine McGilvary notwithstanding, no one has lived up to their potential, and there are a couple of players who have been played in positions that seem designed so that they can't.

They may or may not beat Tonga, but even if they do, I can't see them beating the winner of Australia vs Fiji (please let it be Fiji).

Rugby League World Cup Quarterfinal Predictions

Since I will not have my quarterfinal dataviz ready before Australia vs Samoa on Friday, I want to record my predictions now.  Mostly so I can say I told you so.

The four quarterfinals are:

Australia vs Samoa
Tonga vs Lebanon
New Zealand vs Fiji
England vs PNG

I expect Australia will win, but I hope Samoa will get at least a couple of tries.  Tonga vs Lebanon could get tasty but I expect Tonga to win by several tries.  I am excited for NZ vs Fiji, even if I know Fiji, the team I want to win, probably won't win.

With regard to England's quarterfinal, I want to join everyone else in saying that it's not fair that it is being held in Melbourne rather than Port Moresby.  As PNG are co-hosts with NZ and Australia, it is wrong that they don't host any matches after the group stage.

It also improves England's chances of beating them.

I am slightly torn because I want PNG to do well, but I don't want a team featuring James Graham, James Roby, Alex Walmsley and Mark Percival to lose.  I also think a close match might finally kick England's posteriors into gear.  Because that second half against France was not acceptable.

Semi-Final Predictions

Brazil vs Germany:

If this was Brazil, on home turf, with Thiago Silva and Neymar, I'd have no issue with saying Brazil to win.  Even without Silva, I'd still be tempted, but without Neymar, I can't see them doing it, not against what it a particularly grim and determined German team.

Argentina vs Netherlands:

Even without Di Maria, Messi might be able to drag Argentina through, especially if Higuaín has finally remembered how to play football.  But this is a pretty solid Dutch team, and if anyone can think a team's way to victory it is the evil genius van Gaal.

Somehow, I fear something that was set up perfectly to produce Brazil vs Argentina at the Maracanã, is going to wind up being Germany vs the Netherlands.  The death of European football may have been grossly exaggerated.

World Cup Quarter Final Predictions

France vs Germany - If nothing else, it ought to be a good watch.  My heart says Germany, my head says France.  Because Germany looked decidedly wobbly against Algeria, while France don't seem to have a defence at all.

Brazil vs Colombia - I've been less impressed by Colombia than everyone else, so I think Brazil will edge it, but it might be close.

Argentina vs Belgium - It really ought to be Argentina, even if they have just been squeaking by.  Mostly because I think their squeaking has been marginally more impressive than Belgium's squeaking.

Netherlands vs Costa Rica - Netherlands because Costa Rica had a much longer match vs Greece and had the added stress of a penalty shoot-out.  Plus they're short one of their starting defenders due to his red card in the Greece match.  That being said, I suspect it might be like the Mexico team where the Netherlands are on the back foot for most of the match only to seize victory at the last minute.

Second Round Predictions

No post-mortems on England or Italy, mostly because I'm still writing those posts ;)

1. Brazil vs Chile - I can't see past Brazil for this one.  I can see it being a scrappy match and a narrow win but I think Brazil are going to win.
2. Colombia vs Uruguay - I think Colombia are going to win.  They've been a good, solid team, and Uruguay are without their main man (Cavani not having been at his best in this World Cup).  But, and this is a big but, if any team are going to be able to finagle a win in these circumstances, it's going to be Uruguay.
3. Netherlands vs Mexico - Despite wanting Mexico to win (for student P, if for no other reason), I think Netherlands are going to win.  But that's only if they can win in normal time.  If this goes to penalties, I think Mexico are going to win.
4. Costa Rica vs Greece - Costa Rica ought to win.  By all that makes sense in football, it ought to be Costa Rica.  But I refuse to count Greece out because if ever there was a side who don't accept things like "making sense in football".
5. France vs Nigeria - France.  Too much firepower and enough of a defense to withstand Nigeria's attack.
6. Germany vs Algeria - Germany, same logic as for France.
7. Argentina vs Switzerland - Should be Argentina, unless Messi can't produce some of his usual magic.
8. Belgium vs USA - You know, the US could actually do this.  But then again, so could Belgium.  Belgium aren't so good that they can't be beaten, but then again, neither are the US.  The US have a player who can conjured up a moment of magic in Clint Dempsey but Belgium have a team who can stick to a task without deviation for 90 minutes.  It's a total coin toss.

World Cup Predictions

Because it's getting close to the World Cup time, and because @Tiberius_Jolly and I were bored, have our entirely unlikely to be accurate World Cup predictions:

Group A
Brazil & Cameroon

Group B
Spain & Chile

Group C
Colombia & Ivory Coast

Group D
England & Uruguay (Don't look at me, I got out-shouted by a maniac who thinks England are likely to go through on goal difference.)

Group E
France & Switzerland

Group F
Argentina & Nigeria (I'm backing Bosnia & Herzogovina as possible dark horses in this group.)

Group G
Germany & Portugal

Group H
Belgium & Russia (this relies on Russia not pulling a Euro 2012 and actually performing as well as they can.)

Then:

Brazil beats Chile

Uruguay beats Colombia

France beats Nigeria

Germany beats Russia

Spain beats Cameroon

England beats Ivory Coast

Argentina beats Switzerland

Portugal beats Belgium

Then:

Brazil beat Uruguay

Germany beats France

Spain beat England

Argentina beat Portugal (unless Ronaldo is Maradona)

Then:

Brazil beat Germany

Argentina/Portugal beats Spain

Then:

A final of Brazil  vs either Argentina (oooh) or Portugal

And if Portugal get to final, nevermind winning the thing, we have to actually start asking the Pele, Maradona or Ronaldo question.