Tour de France 2020 Data Doodles

Inspired by @psychemedia on Twitter/blog.ouseful.info, and his F1 charts where you could tell when something had happened and who it happened to, even if you hadn't watched the race, I wanted to do something similar for the Tour de France.  Only, I still wanted to watch the stages.

Also, other people have probably done more things with times and speeds, so I thought I'd focus on withdrawals.  

Can you tell which stages are the hardest from the number of withdrawals?

I couldn't decide which I liked the look of more, the version where the stages are chronological or arranged by number of withdrawals

The figures suggest that stage 8 was nasty.  (Which it was, in a good way)

The whole peleton hasn't lost that many, and more than 90% of riders remain in.

(This was why I was asking if anyone had a good explainer for Kaplan Meier graphs made using R.  If anyone finds one, I am still looking.)

But let's look at it by team.

This is the withdrawals by team in absolute numbers.

Now, but in percentages

And now the Kaplan Meier by team, which I acknowledge is ugly.

Mostly, Lotto Soudal appear to be cursed.

Other things I'm thinking of is dividing the withdrawals as to whether they were abandonments or do not starts and seeing how they differ, and deciding whether the DNS should be counted as belong to the stage before, or the stage they didn't start.

It'd also be interesting to see if there's a pattern in the withdrawals in the different weeks.

Ferrari foul-up bingo - after the Belgian Grand Prix

 At the Spanish Grand Prix, Ferrari decided on a strategy ten laps after Vettel suggested it.  Now far be it from me to suggest that the team on the pit-wall maybe ought to be able to think of these things before the guy in the car, but really, it's what they're paid for.

But I didn't dab the "too indecisive to decide on a strategy" square because I fell into the same trap that all sports fans fall into at some point.  

Hope!

I hoped that this was a one-off, and that they weren't falling back into bad habits.  The Belgian Grand Prix dashed this hope.  Telling one of your drivers that you'll be going for strategy C or D, when the driver has to do very different things now depending on which of those options you go with, is not helpful.  They really did need to make a decision, and make it sooner.

"Pit stop disaster" is not dabbed, because the slow pitstops weren't due to a pitstop disaster but an engine pressure leak.  I'm sure Ferrari will find a way to screw up a pitstop at some point.

A Colony of Bats

 I have lots of horribly delayed posts, but there’s been so much Bat-news, and we all know I’m batty for Bats, so I couldn’t resist.

In choosing the format of the post, I have gone for the path of least incoherence. Least does not mean that there isn’t a lot of squeaky prose and exclamation marks below.

(Tumblr peeps will already have seen bits of this in a subtly different order)

Batfleck

Another thing which is not a secret is how much I loved Batfleck in Dawn of Justice. Afterwards, I wanted a solo Batfleck film so much. Reports of Joe Manganiello playing Deathstroke only encouraged me, even if Deathstroke wasn’t any of the villains I wanted, because I figured I’d already seen my villains on the big screen and it was time to let someone else see theirs.

And then … nothing.

Until there was the news that there *would* be a new Batman film but it would not feature Ben Affleck. I made my peace with that also (about which, more later).

But now, there will be more Batfleck, but not in his own film, but in the Flash’s. I am starting to feel that they are tormenting me deliberately.

JUST GIVE ME A DAMN BATFLECK SOLO FILM.

New Batman (are we okay with RBattz for this?)

Firstly, I rate Robert Pattinson as an actor, I’ve seen The Haunting of Toby Jugg which more than convinced me. So, I was cool with him as Batman. Admittedly, when I first heard he was going to be in a Batman film, I presumed he was going to be the Riddler, but you know, young, solid actor as Batman, that had potential.

Potential for Batman Beyond. That was what I hoped for when I heard the casting, Pattinson as Terry McGinnis with Michael Keaton as an aging Bruce Wayne, in the old Burton sets surround by vivid neon futurism. (Leave me my dreams, they are fun and have excellent cinematography.)

But you know, I got used to the idea of Pattinson playing Bruce Wayne and accepted it.

Then they announced the villains.

No-one can convince me that they didn’t take the names of three actors they wanted to work with and three characters they wanted in the film and then pulled character names out of a hat to decide who got what role. Because you can’t tell me that Paul Dano wouldn’t make an excellent Penguin, I had previously assumed Robert Pattison was the Riddler and Colin Farrell as Bruce Wayne is a swoon-worthy idea.

But again, I achieved calm on the matter. Messrs Dano, Farrell and Pattinson would do an excellent job, no matter how peculiar I found the casting.

Then I saw photos of RBattz and OMG!! He looks so much like Terry McGinnis and I want Batman Beyond so much more than the film they are selling.

On that point, in general, DC seem to have decided their identity is “Not Marvel” which strikes me as a particularly negative proposition. While Marvel have got stick for the colour palettes of their films, they still look a lot better than DC’s films. I know the person who liked the first Suicide Squad film has no right to an opinion since their taste is intrinsically wonky, but I really don’t have an interest in any of DC’s new films. 

Ferrari Foul-Up Bingo - After the Spanish Grand Prix

 I have been conservative with my dabbing.

I had intended to save "mind that kerb" for suspension failures, but a steward's enquiry decided that the "mind that kerb" was the best square to mark for an incident where the engine stopped due to an electrical fault caused by going over a kerb *.

If FIA had charged Leclerc for deciding to drive round a Formula 1 race track without his safety harness done up, that would have been "FIA can't save you now", but the FIA showed more restraint than Leclerc did.

Vettel meanwhile almost gave me a chance to dab "Vettel breaks the bleep button", and Ferrari's strategy team nearly dabbed "too indecisive to decide on a strategy" due to their mis-handling of Vettel.

Like I said, I could have dabbed many more squares because Ferrari never fail to foul-up.

Ferrari Foul-Up Bingo - After the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix

 Vettel's unforced spin in the opening stages has lead to an answer to the question "what will I do if Ferrari screw up in the same way more than once?"

I am double-dabbing.  Obviously, the square can only count once, but the frustrations mount.

The mistake was not an unexpected occurrence.  Mistakes beget further mistakes, and the spin seems to be Vettel's response to pressure.  I think the extra pressure is a mixture of two things, the first being exactly how bad this Ferrari is, and the second is how much better Leclerc, his own teammates, is doing in aforesaid rust-bucket.

Onwards and upwards to the Spanish Grand Prix!

Ferrari Foul Up Bingo - British Grand Prix Edition

No addition to the card, because, amazingly, Ferrari have not done anything unspeakably stupid two races in a row.  I know, I too am shocked and pleased.

Now if they could make a car that actually goes and doesn't require herculean efforts and what can only be described as exploding tyres to get a double points finish.

Yearly Film Location Post

The post is being made at the right time this year, but it only covers films mentioned up to December 2016.

Looking at all film locations, half of the films I have mentioned in the blog were set in the UK, the US or France.  Outer space is next, then Middle Earth is the top fictional location.

Looking only at real places, over half are still UK, US or France but the UK and US make a much larger proportion.

Looking at UK-located films only, they're still all in England or Scotland.

Hungarian Grand Prix

No update to the bingo card, because although Ferrari didn't do well, there was no grand idiocy worthy of blotting the card.  

Actually, despite Verstappen's best efforts to add excitement, was it me, or was that a terribly boring race?  

After the initial tyre flurry, nothing much happened.  When most of the racing that did occur was for positions outside the points, it's not a good sign.  I wasn't joking when I suggested that the Red Bull pit crew deserved Driver of the Day.

Ferrari Foul-Up Bingo - Two races gone and four foul-up bingo squares filled

There's a chance I might get to call "bingo" this season.  That is literally the only positive to be taken from the Styrian Grand Prix.

I am only blotting two spots, because I don't think the timing of Leclerc's tyre change in Q2 counts as "strategy decision is made, it is wrong".  Even the TV commentators said it was a tricky choice and the right one was only obvious with hindsight.

I am not forgiving Leclerc the "hey, let's get a penalty for nearly taking out Kvyat" moment or the "hey, let's take Vettel out" moment.

After two races, the card looks like this:

Or at least I thought it did. But then I made the foolish choice to look at the Constructor's Title standings.

Somehow, within two races, Mercedes already have a more than 25 point lead over Ferrari so 5 squares can actually be dabbed.

Please ignore any screaming!

Ferrari Foul Up Bingo

Being a Ferrari fan can be a frustrating experience.  The general feeling is probably best expressed in this brief clip (https://twitter.com/awaitingseason/status/1253540619781373953).  Yes, that is a Packers fan complaining about a draft choice but it feels familiar, and L swears he has actually heard me make this exact noise because of Ferrari.

I should be more calm about this - most of my early memories of Ferrari are of the great absence of 1990-1994. I am used to Ferrari not winning.  But at least with that car, you knew what would happen - about halfway through the race, the engine would go "splut" and that would be the end of it.  And oh what a beautiful noise it made.  That sound, right at the max, on the forest straight at Hockenheim - I will forgive a lot for that sound.

Yet I can't be calm about it.  In this recent disastrous patch, something different goes wrong each time, almost always something stupid, suggesting a deeper malaise.

Think about last year - if a strategy decision can be made, at any point in the race weekend, it will be the wrong one. If they go too defensive in one race, they will be too aggressive the next. If hard tyres are better, they'll go soft, and vice versa. The pitstop strategy, the actual pitstop, when to change to and from wet weather tyres, all of these went wrong at one point or another. Some of them went wrong several times, each time in a subtly different but equally annoying way. And it's not that these things can't be done right. Red Bull seem to get it right most of the time, even more so that Mercedes. (I am in awe of the Red Bull strategy team.)

And when the team get it right, the drivers decide to start smashing into other cars, each other, random kerbs ... Ferrari have moved me to beyond swearing a few times.

Due to all of that, in a fit of more than usual pessimism, possibly brought about by winter testing, I came up with a Ferrari Foul Up bingo card, mostly based on 2019's incidents.

 

For those playing along at home, by the time the season started, one square in the bingo was already filled.

 

Vettel and Ferrari is not working out, in much the same way as Alonso and Ferrari didn't work out.  I don't think Vettel's the problem here, and I don't blame him for leaving.  Then again, I don't blame Ferrari for changing the driver.  Vettel is making some odd driving decisions, and I think it's the pressure of driving for Ferrari, and of driving for this version of Ferrari.  Hopefully, the change will be good for both parties.

On Friday, before the race but after free practise, L and I had a conversation:

L: Would you like further F1 news, even if you don't like it? (You won't like it.) 

Me: Ferrari are setting their cars on fire in advance?

I said this in the spirit of flippant despondency, but got "good guess" and a link to a BBC article titled Ferrari forced to make a major redesign of their car as a reply.

I don't actually have a square for "this car is so bad that they're going back to the drawing-board." Somehow, despite everything, I hadn't expected this year to be that bad.

By the end of the first race out of who knows how many, because of course F1 hasn't decided yet, the bingo card has two filled squares.

Nope, no-one knows what Vettel was trying there.

I am going to try to take the positives from the Austrian Grand Prix.  It was lovely weather and an exciting race.  Somehow both Ferraris got points, somehow Leclerc dragged that car round to second place.  It could have been worse (it will be worse).  But for now, there was a second place. I can be happy about that.