Ferrari Foul-Up Bingo - After the Portuguese Grand Prix

No new squares dabbed.  Ferrari actually did well this time.  Well, one of them did and I think we've all given up on Sebastian Vettel, including Vettel himself.

There was another flicker of hope, above and beyond Leclerc's result.  Ferrari tried something different and clever with their tyres, and rather than it blowing up in their faces, as I had expected to happen, it turned out to be the right tyre choice.  Other teams changed their strategies to match Ferrari's rather than the other way round.  I haven't seen that in years.  It gives me hope for the future, for next year, when Ferrari will have two drivers who give a damn.

I have dabbed the strategy fail square, and that which is dabbed cannot be undabbed, but in thanks for the strategy team bucking up their ideas, I offer the Cookie of Competence.

Keep it up!

(I have many thoughts about Hamilton breaking Schumacher's record, but they are somewhat clouded by me being both a Schumacher fan and a Ferrari fan.  I am aware I am unreasonable on the matter.)

Other than Ferrari Foul-Up Bingo, this might be my last big post for a while.  I'm working on a post that involves going through 11 years worth of F1 results, and some number crunching.

Ferrari Foul-Up Bingo - After the Eiffel Grand Prix

(Late because Microsoft decided I needed two giant Windows updates in one week and my internet is bad)

I got the start time wrong, but thankfully noticed my mistake about 10 minutes before the start.  I'm glad I didn't miss any of it because there was racing, actual racing.  Admittedly between Perez and Leclerc and not at the front, but actual racing.  In F1!!!

There was also the sheer joy that was Nico Hülkenberg's ridiculous race weekend (briefly - was supposed to be commentating with RTL.  Was in Köln at 11 am, got a phone call from Otmar Szafnauer saying can you fill in for Lance Stroll?, at the circuit by 1 pm for qualifying, qualified in last because he had had no warm up.  Finished in 8th in the actual race.)  Justfiably Driver of the Day.

Ferrari brought less joy (sorry Charles, I know you did your best.)  Somehow, Vettel remained unpunished for his near clear-out of Kevin Magnussen (yes, I know Magnussen is just as guilty) so I can't yet dab "FIA can't save you now" because so far it still really is looking after both Ferrari drivers.  I can dab "strategy decision is made, it is wrong" because did anyone think that the strategy they were using with Vettel would work?!

I shall leave you with two more links.

1 - A most excellent cartoon from Hülkenberg's instagram - https://www.instagram.com/p/CGNe5lUDbd8/?utm_source=ig_embed

2 - Mick Schumacher presents Hamilton with one of his father's helmets as Brit equals Michael's win tally - https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.must-see-mick-schumacher-presents-hamilton-with-one-of-his-fathers-helmets.7y5szvZ2hF3W5DtP1o7GWq.html Which comes with a "bring tissues" warning.

Ferrari Foul-Up Bingo - After the Russian GP

I want it known that I didn't forget about the Russian Grand Prix, I forgot about the time difference, so by the time I turned the radio on, it was all over bar the shouting.

Having listened to the replay, I don't think I missed much.  There's no update to the bingo card because, yes, Leclerc bumped into Stroll, which would fit "cars crash into someone else", but I am not counting it since it didn't seem to hurt his race.  And that hurts to say, Ferrari shouldn't be so poor that I can say 6th is the best a Ferrari could finish.

In the other car, well, the nearest thing to anything eventful happening there was Grosjean happening to Vettel, and Grosjean happens to everyone (I mock with affection).  Possibly "and Grosjean happened" should be a square in future.

In keeping with the tradition of the Russian Grand Prix, the race was not particularly interesting, with most of the points of interest being provided by the stewards, who enabled Mercedes fans to feel got at and everyone else to feel that Mercedes weren't being punished enough.  That takes some doing.  If an incident is bad enough to warrant a 10 second penalty, it's bad enough to warrant penalty points.  

Consistency, I'd like to see it.

TDF 2020 Week 3 Data Doodles

Late because of work

The stacked bar charts have come out a lovely near jersey yellow.  I approve of this serendipity.

The only teams that didn't suffer a withdrawal were Decuninck-Quick Step, Jumbo Visma, Movistar and Sunweb.

Withdrawals by stage pie charts

Four stages, stages 8, 11, 17 and 19 make up almost half of the total withdrawals.  According to one guide, stage 11 was supposed to be an innocuous stage and 19 was supposed to be a recovery day, so it could be due to people withdrawing due to previous damage.  Or wasp stings.  Which yeah, getting stung in the mouth is nasty!

Interestingly, the overall Kaplan Meier survival curve does seem to have 3 sections, which do marry up to the three weeks, with a slight slope, a deeper slope and then a slight slope again.

Visually, the individual team Kaplan Meiers are too busy to get much out of, although you can still see Ag2R's no-good bad-day.  Next year, I'll see if I can get the colours to match up with the teams a bit better.

The week 3 withdrawals are pretty evenly divided.

Different withdrawal types split by week

As the weeks progressed, there were more withdrawals due to DNS, possibly reflecting wear and tear.  The mid-stage abandons reduced as the weeks went on, possibly due to sheer stubbornness of riders.  The outside of time limit withdrawals only occurred in weeks 1 and 3, poor John Degenkolb aside, both were at mountain stages.  There being only 3 outside of time withdrawals still shocks me.

All withdrawals, split by type

Most withdrawals were mid-stage abandonments, which again suggests that the only way of stopping riders is either damaging them beyond carrying on, or holding the World Championships that close to the TDF that time trialists withdraw to be ready for them.

I'd like to take the opportunity to link to this really neat analysis - https://twitter.com/xavierdisley/status/1308009665696063488?s=03 - where Pogacar's energy output on that amazing time trial stage is compared to that of others.  It's fascinating.

Ferrari Foul Up Bingo - After the Tuscan Grand Prix

Team, the FIA throw you a huge party of a Grand Prix to celebrate 1000 races.  It is held at Mugello.  Florence makes a fuss of you.  Fans are allowed to be present.

Eighth and ninth just isn't acceptable.  I mean, it's not acceptable anyway, but in this situation, it really isn't.

I never thought I'd see the day that a Ferrari had an under-powered engine.  The Ferrari of my childhood was that glorious, unreliable V12 which, when it wasn't exploding in a variety of ways, was the most powerful thing going.  How do you go from that to this excuse of a lawnmower engine?

It's just so frustrating.

Only one square has been dabbed, and that's the already dabbed "too indecisive to decide on a strategy."  When one of your drivers says he doesn't care which strategy you choose as long as you choose one, this suggests a problem.  When it's not the first time your drivers have made this statement, it suggests an on-going problem.

I've not dabbed "cars crash into someone else" since that would involve one of the Ferraris was the person doing the hitting, and neither of them did.  Somehow they both avoided all the chaos, all three times, which I would like to congratulate them on.

Now, if only I could convince my Mum to stop suggesting I switch allegiance to Racing Point.  No, just because they will be Aston Martin, will have Sebastian Vettel as one of their drivers and will be infinitely less frustrating than Ferrari, none of those are reasons to betray my team.  Also, I might never forgive Racing Point for dropping Perez.

(I am pleased that the FIA decided not to be idiots and aren't going to reprimand Lewis Hamilton for wearing a very polite t-shirt asking for justice for Breonna Taylor (https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/12071177/lewis-hamilton-calls-for-justice-for-breonna-taylor-after-winning-tuscan-gp).  Otherwise I was going to have to point out they're a driving formula that accept alcoholic drink sponsorship, and therefore really can't speak about anything anyone is wearing.  Lewis Hamilton remains excellent.) 

Tour de France 2020 Week 2 Data Doodles

 I'd just like to once again state quite how sketchy and preliminary these are.  These follow on from last week's.

Lotto Soudal remain the team worst affected by withdrawals, although 3 teams are now short two riders.  B&B, Decuninck- Quick Step, Ineos, Israel Start-Up Nation, Jumbo Visma, Movistar and Sunweb are the only teams that haven't lost anyone.

Stage 8 (CAZÈRES-SUR-GARONNE>LOUDENVIELLE, containing the first hors category climb of this years tour, or Nans Peters vs the mountain) remains the stage with the most withdrawals.

The withdrawals occurred on a variety of stages.

This year's number of withdrawals is about average (can I find the @LeTour tweet that said that?  No, of course I can't!).

For the individual teams, you can see from the shape of the curve how suddenly the race *happened* to Ag2R-La Mondiale.

What I was interested in was if the kind of withdrawals changed over time.

They haven't really.

I am legitimately surprised that there has been only one withdrawal due to missing a time cut (and that was John Degenkolb after stage 1 happened to him almost more than it happened to anyone else except Philippe Gilbert and Rafael Valls.

Somehow they've been up many, many hills and the Grand Colombier and the only person cut was on stage 1.  It's incredible.

Ferrari Foul-Up Bingo - After the Italian Grand Prix

Only one new dab, because oddly, I don't have a square for brake failure, due to an apparently forlorn hope that that would be the one thing on the car they'd make sure to get right.

Noticeably, driver error is the most marked square.  Boys, this is not good enough, even if you never did hear a more piteous sound than Leclerc post-accident.  Try not to do that again, Charles!

However, the Italian national anthem did ring around Monza.  (Yes, I am reaching, if nothing else, Ferrari's form in the last ten years has increased my powers of reach.)

I am grateful for small mercies.  Anyway, not even at maximum curmudgeon setting can I begrudge Pierre Gasly this moment.  Listen to what it means to him.

The French commentators were restrained, in that way that only they can be.  And we love them for it!  (Given that one of the UK radio commentators was almost in tears, I think it's more than forgivable.  Apparently Gasly really is that likeable.)

After a race whose only rational explanation is that the focussing of every Ferrari fan's mean thoughts finally worked, we are going to need to do it all over again this week, because I cannot deal with a world where Mercedes win at Mugello.  It is not acceptable.

Start thinking mean thoughts!

Tour de France 2020 Data Doodles

Inspired by @psychemedia on Twitter/blog.ouseful.info, and his F1 charts where you could tell when something had happened and who it happened to, even if you hadn't watched the race, I wanted to do something similar for the Tour de France.  Only, I still wanted to watch the stages.

Also, other people have probably done more things with times and speeds, so I thought I'd focus on withdrawals.  

Can you tell which stages are the hardest from the number of withdrawals?

I couldn't decide which I liked the look of more, the version where the stages are chronological or arranged by number of withdrawals

The figures suggest that stage 8 was nasty.  (Which it was, in a good way)

The whole peleton hasn't lost that many, and more than 90% of riders remain in.

(This was why I was asking if anyone had a good explainer for Kaplan Meier graphs made using R.  If anyone finds one, I am still looking.)

But let's look at it by team.

This is the withdrawals by team in absolute numbers.

Now, but in percentages

And now the Kaplan Meier by team, which I acknowledge is ugly.

Mostly, Lotto Soudal appear to be cursed.

Other things I'm thinking of is dividing the withdrawals as to whether they were abandonments or do not starts and seeing how they differ, and deciding whether the DNS should be counted as belong to the stage before, or the stage they didn't start.

It'd also be interesting to see if there's a pattern in the withdrawals in the different weeks.

Ferrari foul-up bingo - after the Belgian Grand Prix

 At the Spanish Grand Prix, Ferrari decided on a strategy ten laps after Vettel suggested it.  Now far be it from me to suggest that the team on the pit-wall maybe ought to be able to think of these things before the guy in the car, but really, it's what they're paid for.

But I didn't dab the "too indecisive to decide on a strategy" square because I fell into the same trap that all sports fans fall into at some point.  

Hope!

I hoped that this was a one-off, and that they weren't falling back into bad habits.  The Belgian Grand Prix dashed this hope.  Telling one of your drivers that you'll be going for strategy C or D, when the driver has to do very different things now depending on which of those options you go with, is not helpful.  They really did need to make a decision, and make it sooner.

"Pit stop disaster" is not dabbed, because the slow pitstops weren't due to a pitstop disaster but an engine pressure leak.  I'm sure Ferrari will find a way to screw up a pitstop at some point.

A Colony of Bats

 I have lots of horribly delayed posts, but there’s been so much Bat-news, and we all know I’m batty for Bats, so I couldn’t resist.

In choosing the format of the post, I have gone for the path of least incoherence. Least does not mean that there isn’t a lot of squeaky prose and exclamation marks below.

(Tumblr peeps will already have seen bits of this in a subtly different order)

Batfleck

Another thing which is not a secret is how much I loved Batfleck in Dawn of Justice. Afterwards, I wanted a solo Batfleck film so much. Reports of Joe Manganiello playing Deathstroke only encouraged me, even if Deathstroke wasn’t any of the villains I wanted, because I figured I’d already seen my villains on the big screen and it was time to let someone else see theirs.

And then … nothing.

Until there was the news that there *would* be a new Batman film but it would not feature Ben Affleck. I made my peace with that also (about which, more later).

But now, there will be more Batfleck, but not in his own film, but in the Flash’s. I am starting to feel that they are tormenting me deliberately.

JUST GIVE ME A DAMN BATFLECK SOLO FILM.

New Batman (are we okay with RBattz for this?)

Firstly, I rate Robert Pattinson as an actor, I’ve seen The Haunting of Toby Jugg which more than convinced me. So, I was cool with him as Batman. Admittedly, when I first heard he was going to be in a Batman film, I presumed he was going to be the Riddler, but you know, young, solid actor as Batman, that had potential.

Potential for Batman Beyond. That was what I hoped for when I heard the casting, Pattinson as Terry McGinnis with Michael Keaton as an aging Bruce Wayne, in the old Burton sets surround by vivid neon futurism. (Leave me my dreams, they are fun and have excellent cinematography.)

But you know, I got used to the idea of Pattinson playing Bruce Wayne and accepted it.

Then they announced the villains.

No-one can convince me that they didn’t take the names of three actors they wanted to work with and three characters they wanted in the film and then pulled character names out of a hat to decide who got what role. Because you can’t tell me that Paul Dano wouldn’t make an excellent Penguin, I had previously assumed Robert Pattison was the Riddler and Colin Farrell as Bruce Wayne is a swoon-worthy idea.

But again, I achieved calm on the matter. Messrs Dano, Farrell and Pattinson would do an excellent job, no matter how peculiar I found the casting.

Then I saw photos of RBattz and OMG!! He looks so much like Terry McGinnis and I want Batman Beyond so much more than the film they are selling.

On that point, in general, DC seem to have decided their identity is “Not Marvel” which strikes me as a particularly negative proposition. While Marvel have got stick for the colour palettes of their films, they still look a lot better than DC’s films. I know the person who liked the first Suicide Squad film has no right to an opinion since their taste is intrinsically wonky, but I really don’t have an interest in any of DC’s new films.