Thursday, 24 September 2026

Are the scrutineers picking on my driver? - Update after the Italian Grand Prix

The scrutineering data for the Italian Grand Prix is straightforward. Bar chart showing how often cars were scrutinized compared to the expected number at the Italian Grand Prix.  The values are displayed as a standardised residual.  Car 10 (Gasly) and 44 (Hamilton) were the most over-scrutinized compared to expected, with a value of 0.51, followed by car 3 (Verstappen) with a value of 0.36 and 63 (Russell) with a value of 0.17.  Car 14 (Alonso) the most under-scrutinized compared to expected with a value of -0.51, followed by car 18 (Stroll) with a value of -0.34, then there are 7 cars on -0.169.  8 cars were tested exactly as much as expected. Somehow, despite being the first car out, Leclerc isn't the least tested. 

The χ² for the race is 1.38, so any differences aren't statistically significant. 

For the season to date, it looks like this: Bar chart showing how often cars were scrutinized compared to the expected number up to the Italian Grand Prix.  The values are displayed as a standardised residual.  Cars 44 (Hamilton) and 63 (Russell) were the most over-scrutinized compared to expected, with a value of 0.63, followed by car 1 (Norris) with a value of 0.58.  Car 18 (Stroll) was the most under-scrutinized compared to expected with a value of -0.87, followed by car 77 (Bottas) with a value of -0.73, then car 14 (Alonso) and car 11 (Perez) on -0.58.  Only car 81 (Piastri) has been tested exactly as much as expected. 

The "tested less than expected" cars are definitely further from expected than the "over-tested" cars. I think that's because the Aston Martin and Cadillac teams have remained what we will politely call "not good", while the rest of the teams have come closer together in terms of results. 

The χ² for the season up to the end of the Italian Grand Prix is 4.32 so any differences aren't statistically significant, but the number is still increasing.

No comments:

Post a Comment