Sunday, 29 December 2024

Top 10 Films of 2024 - Now with Explanations

My "not first released in 2024" option is Galaxy Quest, which I saw at the Electric, about two weeks before it closed. Which was a real shock! The owner was perpetually threatening to close it but hadn't ever (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clm7nnyx2d5o). It means I really need to get myself more organised to actually get back to going to the Mockingbird (https://mockingbirdcinema.com/MockingbirdCinema.dll/Home) when I get the chance. 

For films released this year, I am applying my usual 4 criteria: 
a – did the film do what it set out to do? 
b – did it use its resources to its best ability? A £250,000 film is not going to have as good explosions as a £25,000,000 film, or it shouldn’t, and if it does, there’s something wrong with the £25,000,000 film. Basically, it's a technical merit score. 
c – Intellectual satisfaction – does the film’s plot pull some really stupid move at the last moment? Does the plot rely on characters being more stupid than they are? 
d – Does this work as a whole? Did it work for me? I am aware that this is the most subjective of subjective criteria! 

I saw 13 films this year, 12 in the cinema and one on a plane, because the cinema-to-plane turnaround time is ridiculous nowadays. The bottom 3, which didn't make the top 10, can all be missed quite happily. Of the 10 here, I can find something to recommend in everything down to 9, while I'd say the top 4 are actively good and Kalki 2898 AD is intriguing but that might be my lack of knowledge. 

1 - Monkey Man - If we could give Dev Patel all the money he wants to make any film he wants, I would be so grateful. This was marvellous. Fills my need for arthouse violence exactly. 

2 - Kneecap - I am going to caveat this one. How do you feel about about swearing, drink and drugs? If any of the above are not your thing, please skip. The politics is also ... intriguing (let's be honest, they go with 'Band banned by the UK gov' for a reason). (The politics is a whole section of the full review, a long section.) 

On the other hand, other than 'oh heck, Fassbender is old enough to be playing parents', this was good. Openly, 'our story as told by a drunk', in the best sense, and DJ Provai can act (the other two, not so much but not worse than many pro-actors). 

3 - The Beekeeper - Kurt Wimmer is a member of the Garth Marenghi school of writing, where subtext is for cowards. His style really works for me. The Beekeeper is a very straightforward story of good guys, bad guys, necessary bad guys and a lot of violence. They fill this out by casting a bunch of British actors in random roles (and have Josh Hutcherson being the sleaziest sleaze ever). 

Catnip for me. 

4 - The Count of Monte Cristo - It needed to be a mini-series. But I enjoyed what there was. Pierre Niney was excellent, I did not expect to fall for Andrea Calcavetti quite that hard and loved how they did Dantes acting as the Count. 

5 - Kalki 2898 AD - The full story of how I ended up watching this will wait until the write up. Safe to say it was longer than expected, and could have done with some judicious cutting. On the other hand it felt very fresh, although how much of that is me not knowing the Mahabharata, I do not know. (It is a gap I am planning on fixing eventually) 

I do find it interesting that 4 out of my top 5 are not English as their main language. Monkey Man and Kneecap (and the Count, to an extent) are also good at the way people who use more than language use their languages and flow between them. 

6 - Furiosa - It wasn't as good as Fury Road (but that's a very high bar), and it did make Furiosa far too nice and cut-out how she was supporting Immortan Joe. But the images were still awesome and it does interesting things with revenge. 

7 - Dune 2 - I am the problem with this. I acknowledge this. But there are three scenes I demand in any adaptation of this part of the book, and it whiffs all of them. I grant there's reasons for one of them - can I recommend SelenaK's review here - https://selenak.dreamwidth.org/1573791.html? - but I still want those scenes. 

8 - Argylle - It has problems. For spoilery reasons, Bryce Dallas Howard is mildly miscast, but she's not miscast for the more important part. I would have re-edited several of the scenes that ran too long. But it's pleasingly silly, and does some fun things. 

9 - The Fall Guy - This is probably better than Argylle, I just do not vibe with Ryan Gosling. The parts that are David Leitch's love letter to stunt guys, and any part that features Winston Duke, are absolute love, mind you. 

10 - Venom 3 

Everything above 10 has some redeeming feature. Films 10-13 have almost none of these. Venom 3 comes the top of them because while it is a pointless sequel (like film 11), I enjoyed it more than 11. Unlike film 12, I didn't consider that it might have been written by AI, because AI would be more evenly-toned. Unlike film 13, it didn't make me drunkenly rant at L, because it's just so wrong. 

Also, it did have Venom Horse and Mrs Chen. 

And Venom Penguin!

Tuesday, 24 December 2024

Saints Ahoy! - Game 16 and the season to date (and an example of visualisation helps spot errors)

Saints beat London Broncos 52 - 6, with Percival converting 8/9 tries - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/london-broncos-v-saints-2024-06-16/ 

On the other hand, Makinson limped off within the first 10 minutes with a leg injury. As a team, we're not so good without him and he's part of the spine of our team.

Who scored for Saints in game 16?   Bar chart showing point-scoring moments for St. Helens players in the 16th game.  Percival is on top with 9 point-scoring moments (8 conversions and one try), followed by Clark with 3, then Blake with 2, and Mbye, Hurrell and Dodd with one each. Percival scored a try as well as the 8 conversions, hence his domination. 

It was the "who scored" chart that made me notice that 1) I'd missed Percival's conversion of his own try and then the "present when conceded in game 16" that made me notice I'd accidentally duplicated Bell after he'd gone off for Sam Royle and then come back on to replace Davies when he went off for his HIA (head injury assessment). 

I also learnt that Daryl Clark has earned his own song, which the Saints sing to "Dancing in the Dark". Given he is replacing one of the players generally regarded as one of our greatest ever (https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/james-roby-stays-with-st-helens-as-retired-legend-details-his-new-wide-ranging-role), I think he's doing well. 

London Broncos did better the second time they played Saints in 2024 (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/02/21/saints-ahoy-rugby-league-data-visualisation-2024/), actually scoring this time, but in the last 2 minutes. Bar chart showing which teams scored against St Helens.  Hull KR have scored the most, but there are several teams that did not score any points and they are not on the chart. There is still no pattern to when Saints score up to the end of game 16. Bar chart - there is no pattern to where the peaks are.  It looks like a city skyline. There is a pattern to when they concede, although this time they avoided conceding in minutes 9-11. Bar chart of when Saints concede.  There is one obvious peak in minutes 9-11 made less obvious by minute 9 being at the end.  Still not found a way of stopping the visualisation doing that.  There is not a peak, but a concentration of point scoring moments, between minutes 71 and 80. 

So we concede either just after the first 10 or in the last 10 minutes. 

Who is present when Saints score? Who is present when Saints score.  Welsby is the most present for all 142.  He is a long way ahead of the next two, Blake and Hurrell.  Then there is a drop off to the next group around for 100-110 point-scoring moments, then another drop to players present for 90-95, then another cluster at around 80, then a long slow decline down to the players present for the least point-scoring moments, who Paasi, Ritson and Royle. Welsby is the only ever present, there for all 142 point scoring moments. Makinson missing this game, or all but the first 5 minutes, has dropped him into the middle of the pack. 

The "Who is present when Saints score" matrix looks like this. There is now a clear difference between the players in the pale area (Ritson, Royle, Paasi, Stephens, Davies, Knowles, Walmsley, Wingfield) who have been injured, and those in the darker areas, who nicely make a 17 players, the number of players on a match day squad.  They are Welsby, Hurrell, Blake, Whitley, Batchelor, Bennison, Dodd, Percival, Lomax, Bell, Clark, Sironen, Mbye, Matautia, Lees and Delaney. 

I like that the darker area does cover 17 players who would make a decent match day squad. They are Welsby, Hurrell, Blake, Whitley, Batchelor, Bennison, Dodd, Percival, Lomax, Bell, Clark, Sironen, Mbye, Mata'utia, Lees and Delaney. 

The network diagram looks like this: There are 17 players in the centre, they are Welsby, Hurrell, Blake, Whitley, Batchelor, Bennison, Dodd, Percival, Lomax, Bell, Clark, Sironen, Mbye, Matautia, Lees and Delaney.  Only 4 of the less frequently together players make the network diagram, they are Stephens, sticking out on the right, Davies, sticking out of the bottom, Wingfield, bottom left, and Walmsley, top right. 

It pleases me that the 17 players are also those in the centre of the network diagram. Not sure why only 4 of the less frequently present players are in the diagram (Stephens, Davies, Wingfield and Walmsley) but they are the most frequently present of the infrequents so I presume it's that. 

How about players present when Saints concede? There is a much steeper drop off in this diagram than the equivalent scoring one.  Welsby is still on top, he really has been there all the time.  Paasi, only back for a couple of matches, and used sparingly in them, is present for the least. Welsby is top of this one too, because he really is ever present. The players that follow him are in a different order. I suspect that either concede or scored will hit another big number shortly so the orders can be compared. 

The steeper drop off in the "concession moments present for" diagram is also reflected in the matrix diagram. In this diagram, the pale, less-often-present-together area includes Paasi, Davies, Royle, Wingfield, Walmsley, Ritson, Lees and Mbye.  The darker area includes Welsby, Dodd, Matautia, Blake, Hurrell, Lomax, Delaney, Makinson, Clark, Bell, Bennison, Sironen, Whitley, Percival, Batchelor and Knowles. There are only 16 players in the darkest area. They are Welsby, Dodd, Mata'utia, Blake, Hurrell, Lomax, Delaney, Makinson, Clark, Bell, Bennison, Sironen, Whitley, Percival, Batchelor and Knowles. I think Lees misses out because he was off the pitch because of yellow cards for several point-concessions. 

The network graph is less tightly packed. This network graph has six players in the centre, Matautia, Blake, Dodd, Hurrell, Clark, Welsby, then 12 players around them in a sort of shield shape.  Sticking out are Ritson, at the top, Wingfield, bottom right, Walmsley, bottom left. 

It's those 16 again, because they are closely related, and this time it's Ritson, Wingfield and Walmsley that are present from the pale group.

Monday, 23 December 2024

Formula 1 - Canadian Grand Prix 2024

I think this is the one where it became really apparent that the big fight was going to be Norris vs Verstappen*.  As an F1 fan, it's good when there is actual racing, as a Ferrari fan, I'd like it to have been Ferrari but c'est la vie.  Things that do prevent Ferrari success include a double DNF.

I don't hold the team responsible for racing incidents and driver errors, which collided in much the same way Albon and Sainz did, but maybe avoid power unit issues!!!

*I mean I knew Russell would fight back if pushed by Verstappen but at the time the Mercedes wasn't near enough for that to matter.

Sunday, 22 December 2024

Top 10 Films of 2024

 My usual end of the year list of the top 10 films. Explanations coming in a week.


1 - Monkey Man
2 - Kneecap
3 - The Beekeeper
4 - The Count of Monte Cristo
5 - Kalki 2898 AD
6 - Furiosa
7 - Dune 2
8 - Argylle
9 - The Fall Guy
10 - Venom 3

Saturday, 23 November 2024

Saints Ahoy! - Game 15 and the season to date

In game 15, Saints beat Catalan Dragons, and there was the expected yellow card. https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/05/31/saints-down-the-dragons-at-the-totally-wicked-stadium/ Because there always is at least one card. 

I'm not sure why Saints vs Dragons always ends up violent (I have theories, they're all rude and start with calling them Wigan Sud) but they always do. This time it was one of theirs that got the yellow card, although Saints were already leading by then. 

The other big news was that this was the return of Agnatius Paasi to the team. And we like having him, for he is large and good. Saints were very careful with him, only giving him 20 minutes. 

After game 15, there is still no pattern to when Saints score: Bar chart showing when Saints score.  Although there are peaks in some places e.g. minute 34-49, it does not make a strong pattern.  The when Saints concede figure later on has a much clearer pattern. 

Percival still leads the point-scorers, as he should as the kicker (also 4/4 tries converted in game 15) Who scores for Saints up to game 15.  Percival is in the lead with 41, followed by Lomax, Welsby and Makinson.  In total, 18 players have scored for Saints. 

Welsby is still ever-present when Saints score. Bar chart of who is present when Saints score.  Welsby is ever-present for all 123, followed by Blake and Hurrell.  Paasi, Ritson and Davies have been present for the least, but two of those have been injured. 

The thing that intrigues me about this chart is that you have a clear group at the top who are very frequently present (Welsby, Blake, Hurrell, Lomax), then a drop to the group that are often together who have very similar numbers (between 70 and 90), then another few where it tails off before 'boof' big drop to the injured non-presents. 

This is borne out by the matrix graph of players who play together when Saints score. For the darker section (play together more often when Saints score), we've not got a solid 17 players: Matrix diagram.  Darker colours means players play together more often when Saints score.  There is now a clear demarcation between the plays who do not play together often when Saints score, and the ones that do.  The darker section is now 17 players wide, which is the same as the number in a matchday squad. 

The 17 are, in figure not necessarily positional order, Welsby, Blake, Hurrell, Lomax, Dodd, Percival, Makinson, Batchelor, Bennison, Mbye, Clark, Sironen, Bell, Whitley, Mata'utia, Lees and Delaney. I will return to their being 17 players in the "frequently together" section when we get to the "matrix diagram for when Saints concede". 

The network graph is unclear. Network graph.  All of the other players are together in the big giant grey blob in the middle, with clockwise from 1, Davies, Walmsley at sort of 3, Stephens at 6, and Wingfield at 10 sticking out.  Knowles is starting to move out to where Wingfield is. 
It looks like Knowles is creeping out of the main section as his injury break gets longer. 

Although there have been 15 games, there are only 13 teams on the "Who has scored against Saints?" bar chart because 2 teams were nil-ed. 

If we look at when Saints concede, the pattern previously identified (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/11/16/saints-ahoy-game-14-and-the-season-to-date/), of Saints conceding in minute 9-11 gets even stronger. Bar chart showing when Saints concede.  The highest bar is 5 point-conceding moments at minute 11, the next highest is 4 in minute 71. 

Of the 57 times Saints have conceded, 9 have come in minute 9-11, almost 16 percent, in those 3 minutes. It also looks like there might be a weakness in the last 10 minutes too, but that's probably exhaustion and everyone conceding more then. 

L has asked me to come up with a "why then?" theory. Best I have is it tiredness when it's the opponent's third set and that might mean more likely to concede 6-agains which might lead to scores. But I have no data to back this up. (NRL.com style data, my kingdom for NRL.com style data) 

Welsby is also ever present when Saints concede. Bar chart showing who is present when Saints concede. 
 Welsby is present for all, followed by Lomax and Dodd.  Wingfield, Royle and Davies, who have been injured or are young players being slowly introduced, are present for the least.  Royle might also have been injured as well as young. 

Next we have the matrix graph of players who play together more often when Saints concede. Matrix graph of players together frequently when Saints concede.  The paler, less often together players are in the top left third, while the others fill out the bottom right. This time, the darker group of players who play together more often is only 16 players. I think this is because often, when Saints concede, it is because someone has been carded and is either in the sin bin or off entirely. 

The 16 are (again in figure not position order), Welsby, Lomax, Hurrell, Dodd, Mata'utia, Blake, Makinson, Delaney, Clark, Bell, Bennison, Sironen, Whitley, Percival, Batchelor, Knowles. I think Lees not being in here is because of that. 

The network graph is also less clustered for the point-concessions, possibly because there are fewer of them. Network graph of who plays together when Saints concede.  The central grey blob is looser and a paler grey than point-scoring equivalent.  The players sticking out, at some very odd angles, are Wingfield at about 2 on the clock, Mbye at 6, Ritson at 7 and Walmsley at 11.  Because it is less tightly packed, players in the centre touch the lines the outliers make between themselves.

Friday, 22 November 2024

Formula 1 - Monaco Grand Prix 2024

For reasons to complicated to explain here, I was looking forward to watching the Monaco Grand Prix this year. Normally, I'm busy doing something else, or I haven't got access to Sky, or whatever, but this year, I was going to get to watch it and enjoy.

Enjoy was probably the wrong word.

I am a Ferrari fan. I am also a Charles Leclerc fan. And he is cursed (https://www.sportskeeda.com/f1/what-charles-leclerc-s-f1-monaco-gp-curse-all-ferrari-driver-s-peculiar-luck-home-race). I was watching it to see exactly how his Monaco curse was going to happen this year. Because, you know, never even finished his home Grand Prix in any formula is a thing.

So I sit down in front of the TV, having begged to be allowed to watch it. Because somehow, he'd qualified first and this time he hadn't binned it on the formation lap (did I mention cursed?).

It's Monaco, there is no overtaking. If he can keep it in a straight line, there is hope.

Then I'm told 'no, no, no, you can't watch, no one else wants to watch it,' and I'm like "fine". I go into the back room and put in my headphones, I will watch as God intended, on the radio.

I get as far as the red flag.

And suddenly, visitors, so no, I can't listen. And I'm okay with that, there's a flag, it might take time to restart and anyway, I can rewind and listen.

The visitors leave.

I am now about an hour behind and having to avoid TV and internet so I don't find out in advance.

Of course, I inevitably do.

Equally inevitably, no-one will let me watch the highlights show so I only get to see it in the +1 hour version, so 5 hours after everyone else, I finally get to see Leclerc cross the line.

I am so happy.

Please find the highlights of the race, which by the way was terrible and I don't care, here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeCI0ObFY8M

Saturday, 16 November 2024

Saints Ahoy - Game 14 and the season to date

For a reasonable summary, if you ignore the entire focus being on Leeds when they lost, with not even an interview with Wellens at the end, please see here - https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-league/articles/c877le40j6eo 

My notes have me be-moaning and be-wailing Batchelor injured and a decidedly probable injury to Johnny Lomax because nothing else is going to make him come off the pitch in the 35th minute and not come back at any point afterwards. Welsby is now the only ever-present for every St. Helens point-scoring moment. 

It also featured Tommy Makinson's 200th try for Saints, appropriately a Tommy Mak special (second try in this is the type of thing I mean - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nob6v8W8VB0). 

In terms of the data, it now looks like this. Bar chart showing who scored points.  Percival had 6 point-scoring moments, Welsby 2, Sironen, Mbye, Matautia, Makinson and Clark with 1 each. 

Lomax is unexpectedly pale in the matrix chart for game 14, compared to how central he normally is. Matrix graph.  The line for Lomax is the palest because he went off so early. 

He's not even on the network graph for the game! Network graph of players present for game 14.  The 13 players are Sironen, Bell, Welsby, Hurrell, Dodd, Makinson, Blake, Delaney, Percival, Matautia, Mbye, Clark and Lees. Now, let's look at the season to date: 

Who scores for Saints? Bar chart.  Percival, who also kicks conversions, has the most, followed by Lomax and Welsby.  Knowles and Batchelor have the least, but they have been injured.  And their job is to run into people so other people can score. 

Percival, who also kicks conversions, has the most, followed by Lomax and Welsby. Knowles and Batchelor have the least, but they have been injured. And their job is to run into people so other people can score. 

There is still no pattern to when Saints score Bar chart presenting when Saints score by minute.  There is no pattern. 

The same chart coloured in by scorer: Same bar chart as above, but coloured in by scorer.  There is no pattern to this one either. Who is present when Saints score? Bar chart showing who is present when Saints score. 
 Welsby is the only ever present, for all 116.  He is followed by Blake and Lomax.  Ritson, Davies and Stephens are present for the least. 

Because of Lomax coming off in minute 35 of game 14, Welsby is the only ever present. Followed by Blake and Lomax. That's how many point-scoring moments came against Leeds. The three players present for the least number of point-scoring moments are Ritson, Davies and Stephens. Davies has been injured, Stephens is new and no-one knows why they haven't been playing Ritson. Matrix diagram of the season to date.  The top left section is the palest, the central section is the darkest, the players who play together most often when Saints score, is in the middle section, and then the intermediate ones are in the bottom right. 

The network graph looks like this: Network graph.  While the rest of the players are clustered in the centre, the outlying players, Stephens, Davies, Walmsley, Wingfield and Knowles have either been injured or, in the case of Stephens, are the replacement for an injured player. 

The shape is interesting, because it's now 17 players in the middle, the same as a match day squad. The players are Mata'utia, Sironen, Bell, Dodd, Makinson, Hurrell, Percival, Mbye, Blake, Welsby, Bennison, Clark, Batchelor, Delaney, Lomax, Whitley and Lees. Around the outside are Stephens, Davies, Walmsley, Wingfield and Knowles have either been injured or, in the case of Stephens, are the replacement for an injured player. 

Who scores against Saints? Bar chart of who scored against Saints.  Hull KR scored the most.  The teams that did not score, are not on here. 

The one set of data that is starting to show a pattern is the "when do Saints concede?" graph: Bar chart of when opponents score against Saints.  Two minutes have 4 point-concession moments, minute 11 and minute 71. 

Of the 53 times Saints have conceded, 8 have come in minute 9-11, a full 15 percent, in those 3 minutes. That's definitely a pattern. 

Who is present when Saints concede? Bar chart of players who are present when Saints concede.  Welsby is the only player always present, followed by Lomax and Dodd.  Least present are Walmsley, Ritson and Wingfield.  Two of those are injured and no one understands why Saints do not play Ritson. 

Again, it's similar to the who is present when Saints score bar chart but the players that are higher in this one (Dodd is noticeable) is interesting. 

The matrix for "Who is present when Saints concede?" is also similar to the "Present when Saints score" matrix diagram. Matrix graph.  Again, the pale, least often together when Saints concede, section is the top left.  The darkest most often together section is in the middle.  With the others in the bottom right. There are only 16 players in the centre of the "players present together most often when Saints concede". The network graph of which players play together when Saints concede.  There is a central core, with, clockwise from 12, Walmsley, Wingfield, Ritson, Lees and Mbye round the outside. 

The central 16 are Knowles, Bennison, Whitley, Mata'utia, Makinson, Welsby, Hurrell, Blake, Dodd, Sironen, Batchelor, Lomax, Delaney, Clark, Percival and Bell. Around the outside are Walmsley, Wingfield, Ritson, Lees and Mbye.

Thursday, 14 November 2024

Formula 1 - Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2024

This has been delayed as I desperately tried to remember anything about this Grand Prix.

I remember nothing.

This is probably not a good sign about the race.

Thursday, 31 October 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 13 and the season to date

Game 13 was the game when Saints's other problem this season really started to manifest. The wheel of fortune has turned and where Saints were lucky in previous years, this year, Saints were carded at every available opportunity. [This section has been heavily amended by the legal department] 

This time, it was a red card for Tommy Makinson, leaving Saints with 12 men for 67 minutes. Now against this Castleford team, who themselves had a player sent off in the second half, it didn't really matter, but that sort of thing really tots up over the season. 

As does missing kicks, with only 8/12 tries converted. 

Despite the missed kicks, Percival still had the most point scoring moments. Bar chart showing who scored for Saints in game 13.  7 Saints players had a point-scoring moment, with 3 players (Bell, Lomax, Welsby) scoring 2 tries and one player, Blake, scoring 3. 

Especially as he was one of the try scorers. 

Due to the injury problems, this game marked Noah Stephens's debut. He appears thoroughly marvellous. 

Less marvellous was that Wingfield came back from an injury break only to get injured again. 

This game brought up Saints's 100th point-scoring moment of the season. By the end, they were up to 103. 

When do Saints score? Bar chart of when Saints score.  There is no real pattern with several minutes having multiple point-scoring moments. Still no pattern forming, but minute 52 and 79 both have 4 point scoring moments. 

Who scores for Saints? Bar chart showing who scores for Saints.  The top three are Percival with 31 point-scoring moments, followed by Lomax with 13 then Welsby with 9. 

17 different players have already scored for Saints in 2024, but it's not surprising that Percival, our main kicker has the most with 31. Blake on 7 has more than I expected him to. 

Welsby and Lomax remain ever-presents for when Saints score, which is amazing. (A few Rugby League commentators have been sniffy about Welsby's season this year. I may bite them.) Bar chart showing point-scoring moments players have been present for.  Lomax and Welsby have been present for all of them.  Next come Blake and Hurrell. 

I really didn't expect Blake and Hurrell to be so high up (3rd and 4th respectively). 

The who plays together when Saints score matrix diagram looks like this: Matrix diagram.  The pale, not together often when Saints score, section is top left, then comes the darkest, most frequently together group (now only Welsby, Lomax, Hurrell and Blake), then the bottom right quadrant is all the players between those two extremes. 

The pale space at the top is full of injured players (and have now double checked and Knowles was out with a groin injury) or debutants. Or is Tee Ritson. 

That's recapitulated by the network graph Network graph.  The sticking out players have either been injured (Knowles, Wingfield, Walmsley, Davies) or the debutant called up to cover for them (Noah Stephens). Saints have now conceded 50 point-scoring moments over the season. 

There is no pattern to when they concede: Bar chart of when Saints conceded and who scored.  There is no pattern, except a possible suggestion of one in the 4 minutes around minute 10. Who is present when Saint's concede? Bar chart.  Welsby and Lomax have been present for all of the point-conceding moments.  In this view they are followed by Dodd, Blake and Hurrell. 

Lomax and Welsby at the top of that isn't a surprise because they've been ever present when Saints scored too. 

With Saints having had >100 point-scoring moments and conceding 50, it seemed like a good time to compare where the players sit in the "present for scoring/conceding" rankings". 

Mata'utia is the player present, relatively, for the most concessions versus scores, but he, along with Sironen, Bell, Mbye and Clark have been affected by the Saints twitter not always catching all the substitutions. 

Ritson is next highest in that, but that's a statistical quirk because he's not played many minutes. 

Then comes Clark. I think that's because he's the starting hooker and will always play more minutes in the tougher matches. 

On the other side, the player present, relatively, for the most scores versus concessions is Percival, but I think that's an artefact of the pull him off at minute 50 thing. 

Then comes Sironen, who I've always said does the hard yards quietly and well, then Whitley and Lees. But Lees I know is because he's been off the pitch due to his own cards! 

Which players are present together when Saints concede? Matrix diagram of players present when Saints concede.  Again, the palest section of not often present together when Saints concede is at the top left, then the darkest most often together section, then the rest in the bottom right corner. Because fewer players have been on the pitch when Saints concede than when they scored, there is less variation in colour than the scoring matrix. The network graph is also more spread out for concessions, Network graph showing players who play together when Saints concede.  The central core has Sironen, Bell and Percival.  A line goes through them to the two outliers along the bottom, Ritson and Wingfield.  At the top, the outliers are Walmsley, Mbye and Lees. 

The interesting thing is that Mbye is one of the outliers on this view, which I'm presuming is because he players fewer minutes than Clark. Lees is because of the cards.

Sunday, 22 September 2024

Formula 1 - Miami Grand Prix 2024

Other than KMag trying for the most penalties in a single session, as per usual, very little happened at the Miami Grand Prix. And the reason nothing happens also means a sprint race where nothing happens. 

Ferrari wise, I appreciate it's the US and it's an opportunity for a special livery but I would have been happier if they'd gone further and gone full out with the one Sainz jnr is sitting on in this picture. Miami-2024-Carlos The official photos of the non-race suit driver outfits are appalling, but the best I could find with both of them in has them both pulling ridiculous faces: skysports-formula-one-ferrari-6541193 
 It did make them look particularly like 50s-ish gas station attendants. 

The race suits looked like this: charles-leclerc-carlos-sainz-show-off-new-blue-ferrari-race-suits-and-cars 

Of course, it wouldn't be Ferrari without an oops, so of course, they tried to kill Leclerc by not giving him any water. In Miami. In May!!!(https://x.com/ESPNF1/status/1787527750149971977) 

I didn't think I needed a "car tries to kill a driver" square, but I maybe I do.

Sunday, 8 September 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 12 and the season to date

Game 12 was Saints vs Hull KR, at round about the point in the season where: 
1) It became obvious that this season, Hull KR are good. 
2) Saints, not have a good year 
3) The referees have decided to card Saints players for breathing this year (mild exaggeration, but several things Saints players have been carded for, players from other teams have not) 

Match report here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/hull-kr-v-saints-2024-05-04/?swcfpc=1 Saints lost, and had a player sin-binned (Matty Lees, about which, more later).  In short, woe! 

Also woe! Makinson is leaving at the end of the year (https://x.com/Saints1890/status/1792110445903642738). Now, we have had a good run from him, and I begrudge no one who puts their body on the line the chance of a ginormous lower tax-rate pay off from Catalan Dragons. On the other hand, I don't want to lose him!!!! 

For Game 12: 

The final score was 40-20 to Hull KR.  Only 2 out of Saints's four tries were converted, as seen in the diagram below. Bar chart of who scored for Saints in game 12.  Welsby and Blake scored one try each, Hurrell two tries.  Percival who was on kicking duties only scored two sets of points, meaning two tries were unconverted. Adding an extra 4 points wouldn't have won Saints the game, but it wouldn't have hurt. 

12 of 13 players are on the diagram for playing together when Saints conceded in game 12. Network graph of which players play together when Saints conceded in game 12.  Matty Lees is not present. Matty Lees is the starting player who is not present, but that's more because he had 10 minutes in the sin bin for a yellow card, which undoubtedly didn't help the defence. 

That leads us to the diagrams for the season to date: 

In game 12, Hull KR had the most point-scoring moments of any team Saints have played so far: Bar chart of which teams had the most point-scoring moments against Saints.  Hull KR had the most with 13.  Diagram does not include the teams that scored 0 against Saints. Who scores for Saints?: Bar chart showing who has had the most point-scoring moments for Saints.  Percival has had the most.  6 players (Sironen, Mbye, Matautia, Knowles, Bell and Batchelor) have had one. 

As expected, Percival who does the kicking (when he's on the pitch) has still had the most point-scoring moments. 

When do Saints score?: Bar chart of when Saints score coloured in by scorer.  There is a three point-high purple line at minute 52, which is Percival converting the tries scored in minute 51. 

Game 12 was Tee Ritson's first game (not sure if injured or out of favour), which is why he is at the bottom of the "number of point-scoring moments Saints players are present for, up to game 12" bar chart. Bar chart of which players are present when Saints score.  Lomax and Welsby are still ever present for all 83 of Saints points.  They are followed by Whitley.  Tee Ritson is present for the least, less than Walmsley and Davies who have both been injured. The matrix of players present when Saints score looks like this: Matrix is now a shifted cross, like the Norwegian flag.  The darkest colours, for present together most often, is in the top left hand corner, then there is a pale cross for the players rarely present, then the medium often present players in various shades of orange. Clark, Dodd and Sironen are present more often than expected alongside Welsby and Lomax when Saints score. 

The network graph also reflects the players who have been injured, with Walmsley and Davies sticking out at the edge of the figure. Network graph.  Walmsley is sticking out at the top of the diagram, with Davies sticking out top right ish.  Wingfield is also sticking out on the left, but has been injured so long that I suspect he may fall off the diagram soon. Interestingly, there's starting to be a pattern to when Saints concede, with minute 71 and 11 standing out. Coloured bar chart of when Saints concede, coloured in by who scored against them.  Minute 71 stands out because teams have scored 4 times against Saints then.  Minute 11 is the next highest with 3 different teams scoring against Saints then. Because they're ever presents, Lomax and Welsby are both at the top of the "how many point-conceding moments have Saints players been present for" bar chart. Bar chart showing who is present when Saints concede.  Welsby and Lomax have been present for all 49 point-conceding moments, followed by Dodd on 43.  Least present are Ritson, Lees and Wingfield.  Ritson and Wingfield have not been playing, and Lees is a mixture of minutes not-played due to injury and being carded. Ritson and Wingfield haven't been playing, and Lees is a mixture of minutes not-played due to injury and being carded. 

The "who are present together when Saints concede" matrix diagram is a different shape to the present-together-when-scoring equivalent, with the together least often group in the top left corner, then the most often together group in the middle (although that's been shifted up and to the left), then the intermediate ones taking up half the diagram. Matrix diagram of who is together most often when Saints concede.  The palest together least often group are in the top left corner, then the most often together darkest group in the middle (although it has been shifted up and to the left), then the intermediate ones taking up half the diagram. The present together when Saints concede diagram is also developing. This network graph looks like a 5 pointed star, with the points (players who are present less) being Wingfield, Mbye, Lees, Ritson and Walmsley.