Rugby League World Cup 2021 - Final Network Diagram

Two network diagrams for the teams in the final.  

From the semi-final image (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2022/11/09/rugby-league-world-cup-2021-mens-semifinal-network-visualisation/), it's not surprising that England lost, they are very much the outlier in that diagram. 

To an extent, England are the Super League punching above it's weight (the new NRL television deal made L realise how big the financial gap between NRL and Super League is, apparently I hadn't conveyed the size well enough). Given the number of NRL players, Samoa should have won the semifinal, and did. 

At the moment, basically, if an English player plays in the NRL, they will get into the national team, because the NRL is the harder competition. The question becomes how can the gap be closed, so the Super League isn't left behind as a feeder league. 

(I have no answer to this question, only I don't think it's money) 

On the other hand, while there were no Saints, Leeds or Wigan players in the final, Hull, Huddersfield and Catalans did provide players so it's not all sad for the Super League. 

Penrith Panthers provided the most players in the final, with 9, 6 for Samoa and 3 for Australia. This is followed by 5 for the North Queensland Cowboys (4 Australians and 1 Samoan), and the Sydney Roosters and Manly Warringah Sea Eagles with 4 (Roosters = 3 Australians, 1 Samoan, Sea Eagles = 2 each). 

I was so hopeful for Samoa and I wasn't alone. There's a few Australian fans complaining that every non-Australian was cheering for Samoa - take it as a compliment. In my lifetime, there has been only 1 non-Australian winner (Stephen Kearney's glorious New Zealand team), we are all desperate for a not-Australia winner. 

Would I like it to be England? Yes, but I would be happy for Tonga, or Samoa, or New Zealand or anyone. 

If Samoa can keep this team together and build (because several of the building blocks are still so young, e.g. Stephen Crichton is only 22 and already that good) ... oh there is such great potential. 

I'm going to use this space to highlight two things: 

1 - The Jillaroos are just the best. No idea if they're just paying forward Cam Smith mentioning them in his victory speech last time, but for whatever reason, good on them for giving the Wheelchair winners an honour guard. 

https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1594029871197523970?t=R7SVxCgrZRa1ChVE7yi4iQ&s=08 https://twitter.com/AusJillaroos/status/1594044439269609473?t=XMiBwIy8YyxeTM00U1V9ww&s=08 

2 - Also the best, Kevin Sinfield. I recommend watching the clip in the link (https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/1594011819630383109?t=9ZXIU8Rh-_fwmUPa7lX5vw&s=08) and joining me in saying, "may we all have a friend like Kevin". 

In his general honour, and that of Dodie Wier, he's the Motor Neurone Disease Association's website - https://www.mndassociation.org/

Future Content

Work and a couple of other things have meant I've failed at the "one blogpost a week" plan.  

I hope to make up for it between now and when the Formula 1 starts up again.

The traditional yearly round up of the films I've seen the cinema (only 9 this year), a couple of film reviews, and tidying up some outstanding projects from this year, including the Benford's Law project (no I hadn't forgotten it), the final diagram for the Men's Rugby League World Cup, a series of diagrams for the Women's Rugby League World Cup (I'd do it for the wheelchair World Cup but I do not have the data) and something for the women's Tour de France.

End of the Formula 1 Season

Sorry about the lack of Formula 1 posts.  Partly it was the hellish cold I'm still getting over, partly it was real life getting really busy, but mostly it was that the end of the season was really uninspiring.

Despite George Russell winning his first race, which is something I have been looking forward to.  (Don't look at me in that tone of voice, I've been fond of the Powerpoint Kid since he started at Williams).

It's just that the rest of it was so meh - no one was going to beat Verstappen if Max got into a lead and the nearest thing there was to intrigue was when people decided to be surprised that Verstappen, a man who would run over his own grandmother for a victory, didn't let a teammate through.  Why people, including Perez, were surprised is beyond me.

Ferrari did not help matters (Ferrari never help matters).

Okay, I have unrealistic expectations, I'm a tifosi, I was born to have unrealistic expectations.  And the season started so well.  But ended without even a whimper.

It was the sheer dull thud of the end of the year that depressed me.  It wasn't even an entertaining disasterpiece.

Ferrari's response to this is yet another bout of regime change, because if something hasn't worked the last three times, why not try it again.  I think the problem goes deeper that just the figurehead.  None of four people who have taken up the poison mantle since Jean Todt were bad at their jobs before or after (ignoring the recent Juventus weirdness with Arrivabene which I think is a Juventus thing not an Arrivabene thing).  I think the way Stefano Domenicali looked 10 years younger with a year of leaving Ferrari is telling.

There's something deeper wrong at Ferrari and I can't see yet another team principal fixing it.

Rugby League World Cup 2021 - Semifinal Experience and Wrap Up of the England team data viz project

I would like to say this has not been delayed because I have been sent into the pit of despair by England, again. 

I would like to say it wasn't that, and the delay is partly because real life got real in a variety of ways, but England have done it to me again. 

I was in the crowd at Wembley when New Zealand beat England in the last 30 seconds of the semifinal in 2013. 

I have now been in the crowd as they lost a semifinal in golden point extra time. 

Because a Samoan who had never scored a drop goal before scored one. 

I start to feel I might be a jinx. 

The only saving grace is that England did it to better people than me too.  

Photo of Jamie Peacock and Willie Poching looking nervous courtesy of L - I was too busy worrying. 

So much of what England did right in the group stages and the quarterfinal, they just didn't do in the semifinal. Part of that was their own mistakes (particularly trying to force passes that just weren't on) but partly it was Samoa dominating the pitch. 

Field control is as much a thing in rugby league as ring and octagon control is in fighting, and Samoa controlled the pitch magnificently. Compare where on the pitch England had to kick on the 5th versus where Samoa were doing it. 

It was clear in the stands. 

Also clear in the stands was the gap in the right side of England's defence between Dominic Young and Kallum Watkins - and if I could see it, Matt Parish could too, and that's where Samoa kept attacking. 

My pre-match guess, based on the data, for the starting 13 was "Williams, Welsby, Young, Makinson, Burgess, Hill, Bateman, Farnworth, Radley, Whitehead, Watkins, Tomkins and McIlorum. 13 out of 13 guessed correctly, which is a nice confirmation that the methodology is showing something real. 

England were involved in 87 point-scoring moments.

Number of point-scoring moments per player:    

18 of the 24 players in the squad scored in one game or another.

When do England score?    

Mostly minute 20-29, then 45-50 then 72-78.

England point-scoring moments by time and player:    

Number of point-scoring moments that England players were on the pitch for: 

How low Luke Thompson is on this list is fascinating. Not sure if he was just unlucky to be used against fresher oppositions, or with a less creative back row, or what, but it might suggest Shaun Wane shouldn't have swapped Thompson in for Lees or Batchelor. On the other hand, the data may be skewed by the number of points scored versus Greece (about which, more in the future work section), and I can see why you'd want a more experience player in the semifinal. 

The "when are players on the pitch" view didn't quite work out, because Wane sometimes started players and sometimes used them as subs. The one player where anything did show up was Morgan Knowles, whose use as an impact player is really visible.

The matrix now looks like this:

The network diagram looks like this:

 

England conceded in 20 point-scoring moments. Unfortunately mostly in the second match versus Samoa. There being a second match against Samoa caused a small amount of difficult in this set of  visualisations - I have gone with calling the team in the semifinal "Samoa2".

Points-scoring moments conceded by England:

  Samoa's improvement, possibly an advert for warm-up games.

When do England concede points?    

That 83rd minute point score is Stephen Crichton, breaking English hearts. I have no idea how he didn't win man of the match even before that, but it definitely showed why awarding MOTM before full time is a nonsense. (Also, he's only 22. If Samoa can keep most of that team together!!! Next time!!!)

Point-scoring moments against England by time and team:

   

Number of opposition point-scoring moments England players were on the pitch for:

 

Not normalised for number of games played, or minutes played, but Chris Hill is remarkably low in the list. He's probably my surprise of the tournament - I'm used to him being on Warrington teams that didn't quite win things or Leeds teams that didn't quite win things, but in this World Cup he's been a remarkable solidifying point. It's noticeable that him and Radley were both on when England picked up in the last 20 minutes of the semifinal. This is also seen in the equivalent matrix.  The relatively low points scored against means that, I think, the network diagram is unfair. Discussion/Future Work: This did what it was intended to - from the data, I was able to predict Wane's starting 13 (okay, data and knowing that there's no way Wane wouldn't pick McIlorum). I think the rolling subs do make it easier than the "once you're subbed off, you're off" rules of rugby union. Because I included tries and conversions (because I had to include penalties for the rugby union) I probably overweighted the games where there were lots of points (e.g. 94-4 vs Greece) so in future, I might just cover tries and drop goals.)

Rugby League World Cup 2021 - Men's Semifinal Network Visualisation

I may have to apologise to my downstairs neighbour after the shrieking I did during the New Zealand vs Fiji game. 

I wasn't much better during Samoa vs Tonga. 

Tonga's defeat means that none of my beloved group D are left in the competition, and leaves the network diagram looking like this:  

The club teams with the most representatives left are the Penrith Panthers with 12 players, followed by 8 for the Sydney Roosters and 7 for Canberra Raiders. 

The club team closest to the centre of the diagram is St George Illawarra. 

The national team closest to the centre are Samoa, just about, although no team is really all that close to the centre because three of the teams (Australia, New Zealand and Samoa) are close together, while England stick out. 

That makes sense because the money in rugby league is centred around the NRL in Australia. 24 out of 24 Australia and New Zealand players and 22 out of 24 Samoa players play in the NRL, as do 6 of the England team. 

The community view now looks like this:  

Interestingly, although there are only 4 teams left, there are 7 communities in this view, one for each team left, then one for Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, the Brisbane Broncos and one for the Sydney Roosters. 

The first semifinal is England versus Samoa which was also the opening match, but this Samoa team does not feel like the same Samoan team that lost quite so badly. There's a general theory that the lack of warm up games was behind Samoa's awful performance in that game, which could be true, they've improved in every game since. 

But it's not like England have wilted since so this could be a really good match. (If you hear really high pitched shrieking in the stadium, it may well be me because I'm lucky enough to have tickets) 

The other semifinal is New Zealand's chance to finally come good. But I have the fear that Australia are going to do that thing that Australia do so well and just steam-roller New Zealand. In the match versus Fiji, there were huge gaps in the centre of New Zealand's defence, gaps just the right size for Cameron Munster or James Tedesco to run through. 

But hopefully, there will be two very good games of rugby league to go alongside the wheelchair rugby semifinals.

Rugby League World Cup Data Visualisation Project - England point-scoring moments after 4 games

In the previous post, I made a data-driven prediction of who England's quarterfinal team would be. I went with Ackers, Bateman, Burgess, Hall, Radley, Knowles, Pearce-Paul, Sneyd, Tomkins, Welsby, Whitehead, Williams and Young. 

I got 8/13 right - I'd forgotten how fond Shaun Wane is of Michael McIlorum, hadn't expected him to choose Tommy Makinson over Sneyd and Hall and I completely forgot about Herbie Farnsworth - my apologies to Farnsworth. 

I will update my prediction, following an extra match's data, later.

When do England score?

    

It's more when don't they score? 

There's a concentration of point-scoring moments 21-27 minutes, 48-49 minutes and then 75-79 minutes.

Who scores for England?

   

No new players are on that list, but that's still 17 out of a squad of 24 scoring.

Below is the England point-scoring moments by player and time   

How many point-scoring moments were different players on the pitch for? 

The network diagram now looks like this:  And this is the matrix now: There's been a major shift, and I think it's because a lot of the team that scored so many against Greece weren't in the quarterfinal match. 

From how the figure looks now, there's still that central trio of Williams, Welsby and Young, then a second grouping of Makinson, Burgess, Hill, Bateman, Farnworth, Radley, Whitehead, Watkins and Tomkins. 

Which is 12 players. 

The 13th player is the hooker and it's clear that Wane will pick McIlorum, even though the data suggests to go with Ackers. 

The other interesting point, from watching the game, and it's interesting how watching and analysing at the same time changes the way you watch the game, but from that rather than anything that shows up in the data visualisations - England are so much better when Radley and Hill are on. 

Which wasn't a sentence I was expecting to write. It's not just scoring that dropped off without them, there was also an increase in handling errors. 

Looking at when England concede: 

 

I am still not sure how to cope with France being the opponent that scored the most points against England when they've played Samoa and Papua New Guinea. 

It does seem to be the second half of the halves when opposition scores.

Number of opposition point-scoring moments players were on the pitch for

 

This is really skewed by the low number of points scored versus number of games, as is the matrix view of who is on the pitch at the same time when the opposition score.  Tom Burgess and Michael McIlorum are probably lighter on the figure than expected, and it's possibly that defensive ability that is the reason why McIlorum is being picked over Ackers. 

The equivalent post for the semifinals will be delayed because yours truly will be at the Emirates watching it.  

The only positive to Tonga losing is that it means I can now wholeheartedly cheer for England (I find it difficult to cheer against a team with Kristian Woolf and Konrad Hurrell).

L will be acting as crowd control. 

Rugby League World Cup 2021 - That was the men's group stage that was

That's the group stage finished. 

It wasn't perfect. There were too many one-sided matches and International Rugby League really needs to do more to support the smaller nations. 

But there was so much to enjoy. 

Wales! 

Wales, with part-timers in their team, nearly beating a Cook Islands team who have players in the NRL. 

The Cook Islands anthem - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1586727371876581376 

The Cook Islands Pe’e Haka - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1584830810107957248 

The first female referee to take charge of a men's WC match, Kasey Badger reffing Tonga v Wales - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1584615952330928128 (Followed by Belinda Sharpe reffing England vs Greece 5 days later) 

Papua New Guinea nearly beating Tonga. Tonga in full flow, against Cook Islands. 

Cook Islands being the best, and performing a haka for the New Zealand Physical Disability team, because game recognises game - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1585032360663601152 

The editorial team have contacted me and pointed out that there were three other groups that were not group D, but you'd be hard-pressed to find more joy per inch than group D. 

In group A, you had Samoa taking two games to warm up, leading to an England 60-6 Samoa result that I saw live on TV and still don't believe. 

England, lead by the flying Dominic Young (https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1583875608685473792), winning all three of their matches, France closing the gap and Greece, Greece who had to play qualifying matches past midnight to avoid being arrested for playing rugby league (https://www.rlwc2021.com/article/527/greece-captain-meads-to-honour-grandparents-), playing with heart and spirit and determination (and some flying last-ditch tackles - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1584830803208392704). 

Group B featured an incredibly young Australia (13 out of a squad of 24 will receive their first cap when they play). 

I'm used to all-conquering, swaggering Australia and I don't know what to do with this bunch of lovely young men I want to make cups of tea for. 

It featured Fiji, and I'm sorry but they're Kevin Naiqama's team and I love them - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1583815381478932480 

Italy, coming along nicely, with one player born and bred in Italy, representing a country that has a nine-team league. Italy winning a match and not being nilled, not even against Australia. 

Scotland, the brave, who got better as the tournament went on, and scored against all their opponents except Australia. 

Group C, featured a New Zealand team whose kicking is not quite working right (much to the suffering of Robbie Hunter-Paul on commentary who copped it from all his co-commentators), and their play is disjoined, but will hopefully improve, Ireland, who also improved as the tournament went on, and Lebanon who were determined to reach the quarters (and feature in this ditty - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1584113995744776193). 

Group C also featured Jamaica, who were a delight. There was a beautiful piece on BBC where Ashton Golding explained how much it meant to him to represent Jamaica as someone of Jamaican descent. There's many words I could say about how rugby league seems to be the only sport that understands that people can be from more than one place and love both and should be given the opportunity to play for both. 

It's not just Golding, it's Jordan Meads talking about how much him representing Greece means to his Yiayia and Pappou (https://neoskosmos.com/en/2021/10/07/sport/the-great-warrior-mindset-qa-with-greeces-rugby-league-skipper-jordan-meads/), it's James Tedesco, Australia's captain, who is on his third world cup, but only his first for Australia, because he's made his Dad proud for two and now it's his mother's turn. It's Dom Young, England try scorer, watching Jamaica play Ireland, because his big brother is playing for them and his grandmother is so proud of the two of them - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1581679550114631680 

Jamaica were not just their to make up the numbers, they didn't get niled in any of their matches, and Ben Jones Bishop scored their first ever World Cup try (https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1584830805570113538) and why yes, that is the NZ captain joining in the guard of honour Jamaica formed for Jones Bishop at the end of the match - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1584069688559947776.

And Jamaica are not satisfied, they're building for the next World Cup - https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1583949748708737025 

That spirit of togetherness, France wearing a 7 on their shirt for Rob Burrow (https://twitter.com/RLWC2021/status/1583729910710865920), Greece watching the PDRL matches (https://twitter.com/TheRFL/status/1584941387530653707) and Wales and Tongan fans happily singing together after their match (https://twitter.com/WalesRugbyL/status/1584658651322908672), that's rugby league as much as whoever wins the tournament. 

Back to the tournament, the network diagrams now look like this:    The national team now closest to the centre are Fiji, and South Sydney Rabbitohs are the club side nearest the centre. 

In terms of number of players left, Penrith Panthers still have the most players represented with 18. They are now followed by the Sydney Roosters with 12 and South Sydney Rabbitohs and Melbourne Storm with 10. The number of Catalan Dragons players dropped dramatically when France went out.

The community view looks like this now:     There are 8 sides left in, and 8 communities. 

Probably the most interesting feature of the communities view is that Penrith Panthers are grouped with Tonga, not with Australia. 

Looking at the quarterfinals, there looks to be some cracking matches to come: 

Australia vs Lebanon - Australia are strong favourites here but Lebanon might be able to make it interesting. 

New Zealand vs Fiji - or New Zealand's chance for revenge after the last World Cup. This NZ team have some weaknesses, particularly in the kicking, but this Fijian team aren't as strong as last time. Could be very interesting. 

England vs Papua New Guinea - Ooooh. Oooooh. Given the Samoan capitulation in the first match, this is England's toughest challenge so far. On the other hand, PNG have moments of not-good mixed in with their moments of brilliance. 

Tonga vs Samoa - Even ooooohier noises. I mean, talk about mouth-watering match ups. A Tonga that have woken up and are starting to play beautiful, destructive powerful rugby vs Samoa that finally seem to be gelling and are fired up to make up for that opening defeat and to play their big rivals. Oh this could be epic!

Rugby League World Cup Data Visualisation Project - England point-scoring moments and point-conceding moments after 3 games

Once again, I'd like to that nrl.com for having the data in a really easy-to-read format. For this game, the link is here - https://www.nrl.com/draw/rugby-league-world-cup/2022/round-3/england-v-greece/

There were 64 scoring moments for England.

When did England score?    

There are a couple of minutes where there are a higher concentration of points. They are at 5, 12, 23-26, 39, 49, 62, 66-67, 74, 76 and 79 minutes.

Who scored for England?

   

17 different players have scored for England. The only England players who haven't scored are Michael McIlorum, Mikolaj Oledzki, John Bateman (!), Chris Hill, Mike Cooper, Morgan Knowles and Sam Tomkins of all people. What's going on there then?

England point scoring moments by time and player:

 

Number of England point-scoring moments players were on the pitch for:

Dominic Young and George Williams were on the pitch for every England scoring moment (all 64). Oledzki was on for the least of any English players (6). 

If we look at the players who were on the same time with each other when points were scored, looking at both the matrix and the network diagrams, Oledzki has played himself out. He is the player with the least interactions in the matrix diagram and the only England player not present on the network diagram. From the matrix, you can see a clear core (Young, Williams, Welsby), with two groups of possible teammates. 

The lower group of teammates are slightly darker, suggesting more frequently co-occurring when England score. If Wane goes with that, it's a team of Young, Williams, Welsby, Sneyd, Tom Burgess, Tommy Makinson, Ryan Hall, Andy Ackers, Joe Batchelor, Kai Pearce-Paul, Morgan Knowles, Chris Hill and John Bateman as your starting 13. Which is ... not a terrible idea. 

It's obviously skewed by the sheer number of points England scored against Greece, a game Sam Tomkins missed, but I suspect that 13, with Tomkins instead of Makinson, Radley instead of Hill (providing he doesn't have an elbow injury) and Elliot Whitehead instead of Joe Batchelor might be the starting 13 for the quarterfinal. 

If we look at the points England conceded:  

 I still cannot reconcile myself to the French game having been tighter than the Samoa game for England. It makes no sense. 

The Greek game put paid to my theory that England concede more in the 30-40th minute.  

As to who is on the pitch when England concede:  

It's slightly unfair because Williams and Young were on for more than anyone else because they played 80 minutes in all 3 games. 

The interesting and unexpected is that Chris Hill wasn't on the pitch for any concession of points, the only player where that is the case. Partly, I suspect it's because he's only played limited minutes, but it suggests there's life in the old dog yet.  

I think England only conceding 9 point-scoring moments is skewing this, just because most were in the France match so the players from that match are strongly highlighted.

Rugby League World Cup Data Visualisation Project - England point-scoring moments after 2 games

After the second game, when do England score their points?

 

The points are reasonably spread through time - the most interesting thing is probably that this is two matches in a row where England have scored in the fifth minute, which suggests that Wane's philosophy may well be hit 'em hard, early. 

If we look at who scored the points, Tommy Makinson still tops the scoring-moments chart, even though he didn't play the second game. As a rugby league fan, it feels very odd saying an England game vs France was harder, with fewer scoring opportunities, than a game against Samoa. 

If we look at who scored when, Yes, that is Ryan Hall in the top 6 points scores despite only playing one game. Because if England give him the ball he will score. If only Wayne Bennett had remembered that during the last World Cup.

Number of point-scoring moments England players have been on the pitch for: Four players have been on the pitch for all of England's points - Herbie Farnworth, George Williams, Elliott Whitehead and Dominic Young. 

Other than enjoying pulling L's tail about George Williams coming up good, one of those four players is not like the others. 

Elliott Whitehead is a second rower who has now played two 80 minute matches back to back. Given how much of the noise before the tournament was about his age, I think large meals of humble pie are required for many people. 

The network diagram and matrix figures have changed, but I think the major differences reflect the personnel changes between the two matches (Ackers, Oledzki, Bateman, Sneyd and Hall in, Makinson, McMeeken, Knowles, Lees and Cooper out) rather than either set of players being better or worse at creating chances. 

  I've also now got some more info on when the opposition have scored. It's not as well formed as the scoring information so I'm only going to share one picture at the moment. The main thing I take away from this is that England concede in the last 10 minutes of the first half. 

Now, due to Samoa's implosion, that wasn't a problem against them, and again England had a decent head start against France, but later on in the tournament, that could really come back to bite them in the bum. The teams England are most likely to face in the quarter and semifinals are both momentum teams and a score then will really give them heart and might well give them the extra oomph to score another before halftime. 

What Australia might do in that situation ... it's too horrible to contemplate. 

The match against Greece is unlikely to provide final proof either way on this one, but if Greece do score in those last 10 minutes of the first half, then I think that'll prove the pattern and demonstrate a really weakness that can be exploited by England's opponents.