This Sporting Blog: January 2025

Sunday, 26 January 2025

Saints Ahoy! - Game 19 and the season to date

Saints fans ask for very little. We just want to beat Wigan. Therefore losing to them 16-12 makes us sad.

I mean, I think we did very well given the number of children in our starting line up.

Look at Harry Robertson, literally the poster boy for that line up. (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/teams/first-team/harry-robertson/) He's 19, making his debut and they throw him in against them!!!

Of that starting 17, there are 4 players who made their debut this season!!!

And you know what really doesn't help when you have a team that's almost a quarter infants (and a couple of players not much post that stage)? When one of your senior players gets himself yellow carded in the first minute.

Matty Lees, give yourself a shake!

It being such a low-scoring game means there's no figures for the game. (Don't worry, I am adding some extra analysis at the end to make up for it.)

For the season to date, there may be starting to be a pattern of Saints scoring in minute 50-55.

Bar chart of when Saints score. Only minutes 50 and 52 have 5 point-scoring moments, while minutes 51 and 53 have 3 point-scoring moments.

19 players have now scored for Saints at any point this season.

Percival, the kicker, still leads the way.

Bar chart of point-scorers for Saints. The top line for Percival, the kicker, is the longest as expected. It is about 4 times longer than the line of the next nearest player, Jonny Lomax.

Welsby is still ever-present when Saints score, present for all 153 point-scoring moments.

Bar chart of who is present when Saints score. Welsby is present for all 153. The next two most present are Blake and Hurrell. The last 3 are Royle, Paasi and Robertson, who have been injured, injured and only made his debut in game 19, respectively.

What does the matrix graph look like now?

The righter-most and bottom half is the darkest, and contains 14 players. Moving up or left is the next darkest chunk of 3 players (Batchelor, Whitley, Bennison). Moving up and left again is the next palest chunk of 5 players (Stephens, Davies, Knowles, Walmsley, Wingfield), then the top most and lefter most palest chunk is Robertson, Ritson, Paasi and Royle. There is very little difference in the colour of the two most pale chunks, but the darkest chunk is clearly the darkest.

The network graph looks weird.

Network graph of which Saints players are present together when Saints score. There is a central blob and two players sticking up and out right (Wingfield up and Walmsley out right). That is not the weird bit. Davies and Stephens sticking out left (Davies) and down left (Stephens) also not weird. Royle, Ritson and Paasi sticking out but almost making their own community between themselves, Stephens and Davies, that is the wierd bit.

I can't quite explain why Royle, Ritson and Paasi look like they're making a sub-community with Davies and Stephens. I know why Royle, Ritson and Paasi, because the few games they have played have been together, but I didn't think that they'd shared that many with Davies (Stephens yes, Davies, not so much). This is one of the advantages of visualising the data.

The pattern of when Saints concede has reduced.

Bar chart showing when Saints concede. The highest point is 5 point-conceding moments at minute 11, but there is no real pattern.

An ever-present when Saints score, Welsby has been ever-present when Saints concede.

Bar chart showing players present when Saints concede. Welsby is present for all 73. The next two are Blake and Dodd. The bottom 3 are Paasi, Vaughan and Burns.

The who-is-present-together when Saints concede matrix looks odd. Normally they go, darkest, paler, even paler, palest (from one side to the other). This one goes darkest, paler, palest, paler than paler not as pale as palest. It appears to be an effect of the same sort of sub-community formation seen in the "present together when Saints score" network graph.

Matrix diagram of players who play together when Saints concede. The darkest area of the most often present together is in the bottom right hand corner. There is a darker orange chunk containing Lees, Mbye, Batchelor and Knowles, then another paler orange sliver of Davies and Ritson. Oddly the absolutely palest section of 5 players is next (Paasi, Burns, Vaughan, Stephens and Robertson - or 4 debutants and the injured), then last comes a darker yellow section of Wingfield, Walmsley and Royle.

The equivalent network diagram actually looks more reasonably than the point-scoring equivalent.

Network graph. There is a central blob containing most of the players. Sticking out are (clockwise from top left) Wingfield, Davies (top right), then arrayed along the bottom Ritson, Knowles, Batchelor and Walmsley.

The last time I compared "rank in the list of present when Saints score" vs "rank in the list of when Saints concede" was game 13, when Saints had hit 100 point-scoring moments and point-conceding moments were about half that (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/10/31/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-13-and-the-season-to-date/).

In this game, Saints hit 150 point-scoring moments (now 153) and point-conceding moments is still ~ half that (73) so I thought this would be a good time to look at that again.

As expected, the numbers have evened themselves out.

The player present for the least point-conceding moments relative to point-scoring moments is Percival at -6, followed by Mbye and Stephens at -4. Percival is a mixture of being taken off at minute 50 early in the season and a couple of cards and Mbye tends not to be the starting hooker in the big games (the ones Saints are more likely to concede more in). Stephens is the one who intrigues me because he's a forward who has been given his debut this season, so those are happy numbers. (L will tell you I was excessively fond of Stephens even before this stat.)

Looking at it the other way (players present relatively more often when Saints concede than when they score) [and ignoring Robertson who has only one game], the only one with numbers >2 (which I am calling insignificant) are Delaney and Ritson and neither of those are explicable.

I'll keep an eye out on this stat going forward.

Tuesday, 21 January 2025

Formula 1 2024 - British Grand Prix

It had to be him, right?

Hamilton beats Verstappen to first win since 2021 with record-breaking 9th British Grand Prix victory - https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/hamilton-beats-verstappen-to-first-win-since-2021-with-record-breaking-9th.3teU9bznaWJlC2TGAYh0Vl

As a Ferrari fan, that gives me hope for next year, which is never a good thing! Because Ferrari can make a better car than that Mercedes.

(Yes I have seen the recent photos, I am waiting to be let down next year, but right now I am optimistic)

Tuesday, 14 January 2025

Saints Ahoy! - Game 18 and the season to date

No diagrams for the game itself because it finished 6-8 to Castleford so the diagrams contain very little information. A match report can be found here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/07/05/saints-suffer-narrow-loss-to-the-tigers/ It appears to have been a bit of an arm wrestle.

L will tell you that I tend towards the melodramatic when Saints lose to Castleford. I blow it out of all proportion. This is not because Castleford are not a good team. It's more that losing to them is almost always a sign of a Saints season that will not end well. (Seriously tempted to do a stats test on that to prove it's not just fan-madness)

Good things to take from this match: Two new players got blooded in. The new players (and semi-new players) do give me hope for the future. Sam Royle, first ever try for Saints - yay!

Things I am going to use to try to feel better: It was all going so well until minute 50. It can go better again.

On to the season so far:

There is still no pattern to when Saints score.

Bar chart of when Saints score. There is no pattern.

The pattern that was forming for when Saints conceded seems to have broken.

Bar chart of when Saints concede. There is a peak between 9-12 minutes and a larger but flatter plateau after 70 minutes, but they do not stand out as much as they used to.

Who scores for Saints?

Bar chart. Percival, the kicker, dominates even more. There are now 19 players who have scored for Saints in 2024.

Who scores against Saints?

Saints have had 149 point-scoring moments and conceded 67, so the update on who is unexpectedly high on either "present when scoring" or "present when conceding" charts will have to wait until the next game.

Jack Welsby is still the only ever present on both charts. First, who is present when Saints score?

Bar chart. Jack Welsby is at the top, present for all 149 of the point-scoring moments for Saints. He is followed by Blake and Hurrell. At the bottom are Paasi, Ritson and Royle. Two of them have been injured and the refusal of Wellens to play Ritson remains inexplicable.

Who is present when Saints concede?

Bar chart. Jack Welsby is at the top, present for all 67 of the point-conceding moments for Saints. He is followed by Dodd and Blake. At the bottom are Paasi, Vaughan and Burns. Vaughan and Burns were the two Saints debutants in this match.

What has game 18 done to the matrix and network graphs?

Interesting things.

The 'who are present together when Saints score' matrix now looks like this:

Matrix graph of who is present together when Saints score. The bottom right hand quarter is taken up with the darkest area, those players who are together most often. The remaining half of the diagram, working upwards or leftwards, is now in thirds, which is unexpected. The three clusters in the paler part are (working from darkest of the pale to palest of the pale) Whitley, Batchelor and Bennison, then Davies, Walmsley, Knowles and Wingfield, then the palest section of Royle, Paasi, Ritson and Stephens.

The darkest 14 aren't really what interests me. It's the fact that the paler half is now split into three thirds, with the Whitley, Batchelor and Bennison cluster, then the Davies, Walmsley, Knowles and Wingfield cluster (or the 'oh, how many of our props have been injured?!!!' cluster), then the palest section of Royle, Paasi, Ritson and Stephens.

The network graph looks spectacularly odd:

Network graph. There is a central blob. Knowles and Wingfield are on the edges of the blob. Sticking out from the blob, anticlockwise from centre right, are Stephens, Paasi, Royle, Davies (although he is closer to the central blob) and Walmsley. There are lines joining Paasi, Royle, Davies, Walmsley, Knowles and Wingfield, indicating that when they are present when Saints score, they are present with each other.

It's the cross points between the arms that are sticking out of the central blob that I don't understand. I presume it means that while Paasi, Royle, Davies, Walmsley, Knowles and Wingfield aren't often with the others when Saints score, when they are present, they are often with each other, with Wingfield and Knowles being closer to the central blob indicating that they are present for more of Saints's scoring moments.

The "who is present when Saints concede" matrix is also interesting, divided as it is almost in four along each edge.

Network matrix of which players are together most frequently when Saints concede. The edges are each divided into almost quarters. The darkest quarter (the players who are together most frequently when Saints concede) is at the right most and bottom of the two axes. Next (moving left or up) is a paler area, then another area only slightly paler but different enough to be visible, then a big change in paleness to the palest quarter (leftermost or top).

The equivalent network graph looks more like you would expect.

Network graph. There is a central core and 4 players sticking out, Davies at the top, Ritson to the right, Walmsley off the bottom and Wingfield sort of southwesterly. Unlike the present when Saints score equivalent, there are no lines between the players who stick out.

I can at least explain why Walmsley, Wingfield and Davies are sticking out, they have been injured. But Ritson is inexplicable. Or rather, I know it's because he's not been playing, it's the why of that that I don't understand.

Monday, 13 January 2025

Formula 1 2024 - Austrian Grand Prix

I remember assuming this would go the way of all Red Bull Ring races (and yes, the clue is in the name), but then the start of the Verstappen vs Norris crash-a-rama of 2024 began.

To an extent, Verstappen is the monster F1 created for themselves. They've never penalised him for his over the aggressive/dangerous line manoeuvres*, so why is he going to stop. It was always going to take one of the other drivers doing the same back to make him stop, but no one really has since Hamilton, and Hamilton hasn't had the car to take the literal fight to him since 2021.

I admit I hadn't expected it to be Norris that took the fight to Verstappen, I'd assumed that he might have been cowed from previous experience in junior formula. I was wrong **.

Ferrari-wise, it was another race where one car did well, and one car did not. 11th, not good enough.

~~~~

* said with acknowledgement of the various attempted vehicular manslaughters one of my favourites was allowed to get away with

** I was expecting it to be Piastri.

Wednesday, 8 January 2025

Saints Ahoy! - Game 17 and the season to date

Game 17 was another loss to Salford. Let us never speak of it again.

More sensibly, both times Salford played Saints this season are high up on the "who scores against Saints?" chart.

Bar chart of which teams scored against Saints. Salford are 3rd and 4th in the chart at the end of game 17.

Mostly concerned about Sam Royle going off concussed.

Looking at the year to date: Percival's try and the conversions help extend his lead at the top of the "Who scores for Saints?" chart:

Bar chart of who scores for Saints. Percival is a long way ahead of everyone else.

There is still no real pattern to when Saints score.

Bar chart showing when Saints score. There is no real pattern. Maybe a bit of a hump between minute 50-55.

Welsby is still ever present.

Bar chart showing who is present when Saints score. Welsby is ever-present, on the pitch for all 146 point-scoring moments. He is followed by Blake and Hurrell. Royle, Paasi and Ritson have been present for the least.

Unlike the matrix for when Saints concede, the "who is together when Saints score" matrix looks like the way I'd expect, with one corner (the bottom right) darker than the others, then the square getting paler as you move up or left.

Matrix of which Saints players are on the pitch together when Saints score. The darkest points at the centre are the most frequently present players.

The equivalent network diagram just looks weird.

Network graph of which Saints players are on the pitch together most often when Saints score. There is a central shape which looks like a horizontal raspberry. 4 players stick out. They are (clockwise from bottom left) Noah Stephens, Alex Walmsley, Sam Royle and Jake Wingfield, who is almost in the central raspberry.

When do Saints concede?

Bar chart showing when Saints concede. There is a distinct peak around minutes 9-11 and then a smaller one from minute 71-80. It is broader but less high.

There are two lumps one from minute 9-11, and the other, less high but longer, from minute 71-80. Saints have conceded 65 point-scoring moments up to the end of game 17, and 9 of them (almost 14%) have come in minutes 9-11. 16 (almost 25%) have come in minutes 71-80.

Who is present when Saints concede?

Bar chart of who is on the pitch when Saints concede. Because Jack Welsby is ever present, he is the top of the chart. He is followed by Dodd and Blake. Wingfield, Royle and Paasi have been present for the least point-conceding moments.

The "which players are together most often when Saints concede" image is intriguing, and looks different to the scoring one. Rather than there being a darker area, then pale, it goes dark, paler, darkest, palest.

Matrix of which players are together most often when Saints concede. It is split into four 4 clear areas. The bottom right 7 players are the second darkest group, then there is a paler area of 4 players (Lees, Mbye, Batchelor and Knowles) followed by the darkest area (another 7 players) then the palest patch (another 6 players).

Lees, Mbye, Batchelor and Knowles being an intermediate colour makes sense because they're props and other forwards who are rotated on and off (not to mention the various cards).

I think the mixing of the patches rather than the clear separation seen in the "present when point-scoring" matrix is because Percival is no longer hauled off at minute 50.

On the other hand, the "present when Saints concede" network graph looks more reasonable than the scoring one.

Network graph of players present together when Saints score. There is a central blob of 15 players. Lees is sticking out slightly from that on the middle right. Around the edge, 5 more players stick out like the points on a star. They are, clockwise from top right, Davies, Ritson, Walmsley and Wingfield.

Saturday, 4 January 2025

Formula 1 2024 - Spanish Grand Prix

Not saying it tells you how *thrilling* the Spanish Grand Prix was that even the Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Spanish_Grand_Prix) doesn't give a summary of the race, but it was very much "Verstappen gets past Norris and then steams off into the distance".

The most important thing was probably that this was the last of Verstappen's wins for a long time. Which we are all grateful for. Except the Red Bull fans, who are excused, because we have all suffered from loving a sports team.

At the time, people were very much "oh well, there's someone else that can occasionally outqualify Verstappen but just gets breezed past in the race" as happened with Leclerc the year before.

Little did we know ...

Thursday, 2 January 2025

Copa America 2024

Doing my usual network graphs for the Copa America. It being the same year as the Euros acts as a nice compare and contrast (for the Euro 2024 group stage diagram, please see here - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/06/15/euro-2024-network-diagram-only-a-day-late/).

Group Stage: The Copa America network graph at the group stage is less tightly packed and inter-connected than the equivalent Euros graph

Network diagram. The blue circles are the national teams. Size and colour relate to number of links to each item. Eleven of the blue national team dots are reasonably evenly spaced. Five stick out, four at the bottom, one out to the left.

Same graph as before, but this time labelled. The twelve evenly-spaced teams are Ecuador, Chile, Argentina (Argentina are the team at the top), Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia, United States, Venezuela, Mexico and Canada. The four teams sticking out at the bottom are Panama, Costa Rica, Peru and Jamaica (left to right). The team sticking out at the left are Bolivia.

Argentina are not as central as I would have expected, and the US is more central than I would have expected. Toluca are the club team closest to the centre.

Venezuela are probably the national team closest to the centre, but that's very "ish".

The club team with the most representatives are Bolivar with 9. They are followed by America and Saprissa with 7, then Universitario, Flamengo, Fulham, Porto, Always Ready, Libertad and Herediano with 5.

Jamaica are the odd team out because they only have a squad of 25, compared to everyone else's squad of 26.

All national teams have at least one player playing in their home league.

If the outlying teams predict the teams that are going out, I would expect Bolivia, Panama, Costa Rica, Peru and Jamaica to be among the teams that went out after the group stages, with the others being USA, Argentina and Chile. And I don't think Argentina will be out.

Quarterfinals: The teams that went out were Chile, Peru, Mexico, Jamaica, United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica and Paraguay. The graph predicted 6/8 teams that went out. It included 2/3 of the hosts of the next World Cup which does not bode well.

Canada were not the one of the three that I was expecting to survive (are Canada better than we think?).

Because most of the outliers have gone, the remaining 8 teams are more evenly spread. Unlabelled network graph. The 8 remaining national teams are the blue circles. The remaining teams are in a very messy rhomboid shape, with 6 at the lines, 3 along one side, 2 along the other and one at the top, and two inside the shape.

Unlabelled network graph. The 8 remaining national teams are the blue circles. The remaining teams are in a very messy rhomboid shape, with 6 at the lines, 3 along one side, 2 along the other and one at the top, and two inside the shape.

This is the same picture as before, but labelled this time. The teams that make up the rhomboid are Argentina at the top, then Colombia along the right hand side, with Canada at the bottom of that side. The next corner is Panama. Up the left hand side is Venezuela, then Ecuador. The two in the middle are Uruguay and Brazil.

The club teams with the most players left in are:

4 = Liverpool, Flamengo, Porto, Universidad Catolica, Real Madrid

3 = Atletico Madrid, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Minnesota United FC, CF Montreal, Independiente del Valle, Internacional, Sao Paulo, Girona, Paris Saint-Germain and Krasnodar

Brazil are the national team closest the centre and Sao Paulo are the club team closest. Guessing from which team are the furthest from the centre, Panama are likely to go out. With the others it's less easy to tell, but I would expect Uruguay and Brazil to get through.

Semifinals: I know Uruguay are good, so I don't think Brazil losing to them is time to declare the end of the world but ... Brazilian football in crisis?

Canada getting through to the semifinals was also unexpected.

What do the semifinal diagrams look like?

The four blue circles representing the national teams form a diamond, but the three teams at the top, bottom and left hand side of the diamond have more connections between them than the fourth one which is the one at the right of the diamond.

The same diagram as above, but now labelled. The three teams with more connections between them are Uruguay (left), Argentina (top) and Colombia (bottom). Canada are the team sticking out.

Colombia are the team closest to the centre, with River Plate the club closest to the centre. The diagram is not positive for Canada's chances in the semifinals.

Finals: After a semifinal that nearly ended in a riot - https://www.infobae.com/colombia/deportes/2024/07/11/con-pelea-en-la-tribuna-y-lagrimas-de-james-y-luis-diaz-asi-termino-la-semifinal-entre-colombia-y-uruguay/ (I am not sure how it is Suarez's fault but ...), the final had Argentina winning.

I won't say it looked like yet another tournament when it felt like the organisers were bending over backwards to help Argentina to win but ... (I will never forgive FIFA for making me agree with the Croatian football federation).

It also featured poor organisation and celebrations that people had to apologise for - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica#Argentine_celebrations

Hopefully neither of these will be repeated at World Cup 2026. The diagram before the final looked like this.

Two blue circles remain. While they have lots of smaller red circles around them, they are linked by three lines.

Same diagram as before, but labelled. The blue circle at the top is Argentina, and the one at the bottom is Colombia, the three lines that join them because there are players playing for that club playing for each country and Liverpool, Aston Villa and River Plate.

While the Copa America group stages were less interconnected than the Euros, the finals are not much less interconnected. The Euro 2024 final had 4 club teams with players on both national teams (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/07/12/euro-2024-final-network-diagram/), the Copa America final had 3.

The three are River Plate, Liverpool and Aston Villa, which I think says a lot about Aston Villa's return to prominence. (There is a small local bias. Only half my colleagues hate everything about this, the other half are enjoying a season where they have beaten Bayern Munich.)

What have we discovered:

1) The "closest to the centre" theory work for European Men's Football, Men's rugby union and men's rugby league. It works less well for European Women's Football and CONCAF/COMEBOL competitions.

2) Argentina and Brazil see my attempts at prediction and mock them.