Wednesday, 8 January 2025

Saints Ahoy! - Game 17 and the season to date

Game 17 was another loss to Salford. Let us never speak of it again. 

More sensibly, both times Salford played Saints this season are high up on the "who scores against Saints?" chart. Bar chart of which teams scored against Saints. Salford are 3rd and 4th in the chart at the end of game 17. Mostly concerned about Sam Royle going off concussed. 

Looking at the year to date: Percival's try and the conversions help extend his lead at the top of the "Who scores for Saints?" chart: Bar chart of who scores for Saints. Percival is a long way ahead of everyone else. There is still no real pattern to when Saints score. Bar chart showing when Saints score. There is no real pattern. Maybe a bit of a hump between minute 50-55. Welsby is still ever present. Bar chart showing who is present when Saints score. Welsby is ever-present, on the pitch for all 146 point-scoring moments. He is followed by Blake and Hurrell. Royle, Paasi and Ritson have been present for the least. Unlike the matrix for when Saints concede, the "who is together when Saints score" matrix looks like the way I'd expect, with one corner (the bottom right) darker than the others, then the square getting paler as you move up or left. Matrix of which Saints players are on the pitch together when Saints score. The darkest points at the centre are the most frequently present players. 

 The equivalent network diagram just looks weird. Network graph of which Saints players are on the pitch together most often when Saints score. There is a central shape which looks like a horizontal raspberry. 4 players stick out. They are (clockwise from bottom left) Noah Stephens, Alex Walmsley, Sam Royle and Jake Wingfield, who is almost in the central raspberry. When do Saints concede? Bar chart showing when Saints concede. There is a distinct peak around minutes 9-11 and then a smaller one from minute 71-80. It is broader but less high. There are two lumps one from minute 9-11, and the other, less high but longer, from minute 71-80. Saints have conceded 65 point-scoring moments up to the end of game 17, and 9 of them (almost 14%) have come in minutes 9-11. 16 (almost 25%) have come in minutes 71-80. 

Who is present when Saints concede? Bar chart of who is on the pitch when Saints concede. Because Jack Welsby is ever present, he is the top of the chart. He is followed by Dodd and Blake. Wingfield, Royle and Paasi have been present for the least point-conceding moments. 

The "which players are together most often when Saints concede" image is intriguing, and looks different to the scoring one.  Rather than there being a darker area, then pale, it goes dark, paler, darkest, palest. Matrix of which players are together most often when Saints concede. It is split into four 4 clear areas. The bottom right 7 players are the second darkest group, then there is a paler area of 4 players (Lees, Mbye, Batchelor and Knowles) followed by the darkest area (another 7 players) then the palest patch (another 6 players). Lees, Mbye, Batchelor and Knowles being an intermediate colour makes sense because they're props and other forwards who are rotated on and off (not to mention the various cards). 

I think the mixing of the patches rather than the clear separation seen in the "present when point-scoring" matrix is because Percival is no longer hauled off at minute 50. 

On the other hand, the "present when Saints concede" network graph looks more reasonable than the scoring one. Network graph of players present together when Saints score. There is a central blob of 15 players. Lees is sticking out slightly from that on the middle right. Around the edge, 5 more players stick out like the points on a star. They are, clockwise from top right, Davies, Ritson, Walmsley and Wingfield.
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