Saints Ahoy - Visualisations up to Game 8

I warned you that real life had happened so I'm now catching up. 

The next match analysed for this project was Saints away to Catalan Dragons on the 6th of April. 

The match ended with what the Saints website described as a narrow away loss - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/04/06/saints-suffer-narrow-loss-away-at-catalans/ 

What it did do was bring up 50 point-scoring moments for Saints (so 6.25 scoring moments per match). There is no pattern as to when Saints score (or at least not yet). While there is no pattern, the lack of conversions starting to show (you'd expect a differently coloured bit next to each other or on top of each other, there aren't many of those). This is a problem and will be a problem come the play-offs, presuming we make it. 

Which Saints players are present when they score? Whitely, Welsby and Lomax were present for all 50 point-scoring moments. The next most present are Makinson and Dodd. 

Present least often are Mbye (12), Batchelor (6) and Davies (4). Davies is because he was out injured (and then sent out to Swinton to get match fit [https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/sport/23520688.paul-wellens-gives-konrad-hurrell-update-praise-ben-davies/]). Mbye's is because he only plays when Daryl Clarke can't or needs spell on the bench. 

I'm not sharing the dendrogram because it's officially too complicated to interpret. 

The matrix diagram looks like this. Paler squares are for players who do not play together when Saints score. These are starting to form some interesting patterns: 

Bell, Lees, Knowles 

Hurrell, Lees, Knowles 

Mata'utia, Walmsley 

Sironen, Wingfield 

Dodd, Lees 

Makinson, Lees, Knowles 

Some of these I can explain as forwards who don't play together often. Makinson and Lees and Knowles, and Dodd and Lees, I can't explain. 

There are 19 players in the network graph, like there was last time (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/06/03/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-7-and-the-season-to-date/). It's tilted about 90 degrees anti-clockwise and now looks like a slightly nobbily tilted square. The central chunk are Sironen, Blake, Lomax, Matautia, Welsby and Whitely. The chunk on top are Dodd, Clark and Makinson. The chunk on the bottom are Hurrell, Bennison and Bell Outside (from top left) = Knowles, Percival (I presume because of injury and suspension), Delaney, Wingfield, Mbye, Lees and Walmsley 

In the 8 games, Saints have conceded 21 point-scoring moments. 

 Most interestingly, they have conceded at minute 76 to two different teams. The three players most present when Saints score are also most present when they concede, then Bennison, then Makinson and Dodd. Bennison much higher on the "when Saints concede" chart than on the "when Saints score chart". The players present for the least concession moments are Walmsley, Lees and Percival, which is probably due to the number of minutes those three players have played. 

If we look at the concession matrix, it looks like this: The players whose crossing points are paler than expected, which suggests they don't play together when Saints concede are: 

Clark and Mbye (which makes sense because they are both hookers) 

Dodd and Lees 

Makinson and Lees 

Blake, Percival and Mbye 

Hurrell and Wingfield 

Delaney and Mbye 

Knowles and Wingfield 

Mata'utia and Wingfield 

The Wingfield paler bits are probably because he was playing with them before he got injured (https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/sport/24313416.saints-heart-broken-jake-wingfields-shoulder-injury/)

The network graph for when Saints concede There are 15 players in the network graph. The central chunk, clockwise from top (in a sort of diamond) are Hurrell, Dodd, Welsby, Clark, Bell, Makinson, Sironen, around a central trio of Lomax, Whitley, and Bennison. Outside are Matautia, Knowles, Blake, Wingfield, Delaney 

Again, I think the injury is why Wingfield is out there.

Euro 2024 Final Network Diagram

Looks like this: The labelled version looks like this: The thing that really leaps out at me, having done this since Euro 2012 is how much more interconnected the final two teams are. 

In 2012, only one club team, Manchester City, would have had someone on the winning team no matter what. 

In 2024, four teams can say that, Manchester City again, along with Real Madrid, Chelsea and Arsenal. 

Chelsea are the club team closest to the centre. 

Five club teams share the position of "most players left in", Real Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona, Manchester City and Crystal Palace all have 4 players left in. Crystal Palace is the one that surprises me the most and suggests they have a much better academy system than I suspected. 

As England have got to the final with me not watching, I will continue not to watch lest I am a jinx. It's an odd situation where I have no preferred team, although both teams have a couple of players I really like.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - It looks like the semifinals could get interesting

I said Spain vs Germany would be close (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/07/04/euro-2024-network-diagram-quarterfinals/). And I think the semifinals are going to be even closer. Normally at this stage, there might be an outlier, but this time everyone is evenly spaced. The community view has got complicated, because the 4 teams make eight communities. The four countries are their own communities but four teams are also their own communities. They are West Ham in a sort of dark green, Bayern Munich who are an orangey pink, Brentford who are a mauve-ish purple and Atletico Madrid who are a slightly darker blue that is hard to tell apart from England blue (sorry about that). 

The club team closest to the centre are West Ham, Bayer Leverkusen or RB Leipzig. 

There's a real mix of teams with the most representatives still in, but Real Madrid have the most. This is what the list looks like: 

Real Madrid = 7 

Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain = 6 

Barcelona, Arsenal, Real Sociedad, Manchester City = 5 

I'm not even going to try to predict the semifinals from this.

Euro 2024 Network Diagrams - Quarterfinals

Okay, so Austria are out, as I suspected they would be. 

For the second Euros in a row, a team they beat in the group stage has gone further than them. But at least it took this absolute stunner of a save for Turkey to beat Austria - https://x.com/EURO2024/status/1808266570327634063 

Of the clear predictions, the diagram was 4/4, and the diagram was part of why I wasn't surprised by Italy or Austria's losses. (I have a series of theories about why the UK press always underestimates Turkey, they are all rude.) 

So, what does the diagram look like now? As expected, the outlying teams all lost, so there's now only the central core teams left. 

Looking at the unlabelled diagram, the central clump is now not as clumped, and one team sticks out to the right.  Labelled, it looks like this: France are the team closest to the centre, while AC Milan are the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most representatives left are Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain with 10, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Manchester City with 9, then Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool with 7 (stop giggling back there about that linkage). 

Inter Milan have been significantly reduced, not just because of Italy going out but also because they had several players in other teams that have been eliminated. 

All the teams are their own community in the community views.  

I can understand why Inter Milan are French in the community view, what with Italy going out, but Manchester City and Manchester United being Portuguese intrigues me. 

Predictions from this (and the reason why I'm writing this while watching the election coverage so it's out before tomorrow): 

Spain vs Germany - Diagram says Germany, just 

Portugal vs France - Diagram says France 

England vs Switzerland - too close to call 

Netherlands vs Turkey - Diagram says Netherlands (this one is the one I think could be an upset. This Turkey team have a vibe.)

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Now the group stage community views

I described the group stage diagram as looking like a peacock (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/06/15/euro-2024-network-diagram-only-a-day-late/), and I'm amazed how many of the peacock tail survived. Well done Georgia and Romania in particular. 

My prediction for who would go out was Albania, Slovenia, Romania, Georgia, Ukraine and Scotland, then Slovakia and Hungary, with Poland or Austria in place of one of Romania, Slovakia or Ukraine. I was right for 5/8, which I could as going okay. I also hadn't expected Belgium to turn the Group of Cuddly into the Group of Sickos.

 

The network graphs for the last 16 look like this:  The central core are still there (mostly, really wasn't expecting Croatia to go out), with four teams trailing out to the right. Labelled, it looks like this: Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Georgia being so far away from the main core highlights how much of a surprise their going through to the last 16 is. 

Because of the odd weighting, identifying the central team is less valuable than usual. Italy are the national team closest to the centre, and Juventus are the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most players left in are Inter Milan and Paris Saint-Germain with 12, then Manchester City with 11, then Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona 10.

The community view looks like this:    Now each team is it's own community. 

Predictions, as requested by L. 

Spain vs Georgia - diagram says Spain 

Germany vs Denmark - no clear winner on the diagram 

Portugal vs Slovenia - diagram says Portugal 

France vs Belgium - diagram says France 

Romania vs Netherlands - diagram says Netherlands 

Austria vs Turkey - no clear winner on the diagram (I will be crossing my fingers and avoiding the match) 

England vs Slovakia - diagram says England 

Switzerland vs Italy - no clear winner on the diagram 

That central core is tightly packed, which is what's led to that uncertainty.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Now the group stage community views

Because I was trying to race the start of the Euros with my diagrams, I didn't add the community view.

They're below and are quite busy.    There are 20 communities for 24 teams. 

Belgium and Denmark share a community because both teams have players that play for Anderlecht. France and Portugal share a community because of their Paris Saint Germain players.  

Then there's Albania and Croatia, and despite almost being on opposite sides of the diagram, Austria and Hungary are one group.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Only a day late

(Stuff, still happening. Everything, still late.) 

So after OMG! 12 years of doing this, I know what shape I am expecting from this sort of thing. 

I am expecting a central tight core, surrounded by others (like the diagram below).  

Now sometimes, the cluster is shifted and tighter at one point rather than the centre, like at the Women's World Cup 2023 (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/07/22/womens-world-cup-2023-group-stage-network-diagrams/), but what I didn't expect is what this one looks like. 

I've made a simplified description below because having 24 teams with 26* players each makes the diagram really busy. (* Except France and Belgium, because ... actually does anyone know why?)  

So there's one cluster, and the other, less connected, teams splay out like a peacock's tail.

This is what the real one looks like:    The same diagram, but now labelled, which only makes it busier.  

It does make identifying the central team less worthwhile than usual. 

That team are Italy. 

Turkey are a lot closer to the cluster centre than I expected. 

One of Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur and Atletico Madrid are the club team closest to the centre. 

The clubs with the most representatives are Inter Milan and Manchester City with 13. The come Real Madrid, Barcelona and Paris Saint Germain with 12, the Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig with 11. 

Interestingly, a lot of Barcelona and Real Madrid players are not playing for Spain and we've definitely moved on from the days where Spanish players played for either one or the other. 

I am not even getting into the whole thing about 3 different club teams all being Red Bull teams (not least because I have a whole post about it here - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/03/29/in-which-we-know-that-uefa-wont-do-anything-about-dual-ownership-but-a-girl-can-dream/). 

Prediction: From the diagram, I think the 8 teams that will be eliminated will be Albania, Slovenia, Romania, Georgia, Ukraine and Scotland, then Slovakia and Hungary. 

You'll note that includes none of the group D teams, supporting the theory that it really is a group of Death!!! I suspect one of Poland and Austria will be out instead of Ukraine. Group E more like the group of cuddly if you're Belgium.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 7 and the season to date

(Sorry for the break, RL happened with a vengeance) 

The most important thing about Easter weekend was that the forces of Good (Saints) beat the forces of Evil (Wigan) in the Good Friday game, somewhat against the run of form. 

In the sort of derby where it was 2-0 at half time, 3 people went off for Head Injury Assessments and there was somehow only 1 yellow card 

https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/03/29/saints-defeat-wigan-on-good-friday/ https://twitter.com/SuperLeague/status/1773756078875959601 - Tommy, Tommy Mak 

Those are the important rugby points ;) 

There is still no obvious pattern to when Saints score Percival and Lomax, the kickers, are still the people with the highest number of point-scoring moments, as expected. Tommy Makinson is still doing his thing (Tommy Tommy Mak!) But there's also no pattern to when they score. Only 3 players have been present for all point-scoring moments, Whitley, Welsby and Lomax. In the matrix, the cluster of always theres has moved into the middle, possibly because there's so few of them. There are now 19 people in the present when Saints score network graph, a central 15, plus Mbye, Lees, Knowles and Walmsley stuck out from them. Moving over to when Saints concede. Our three ever presents are here as well but Bennison is there as well, which is unexpected. Not sure if he's just been unfortunate to be on the pitch when Saints are short-handed, or if I need to start shouting about defensive practise. The network diagram for when Saints concede now has 13 players. ~~~~ 

Given the sad news - Rugby league legend Burrow dies aged 41 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/articles/c2qqwvwzp5zo) - if you like these posts and have a few quid to spare, there's a couple of funds that could do with donations: 

Motor Neurone Disease Association - https://www.justgiving.com/campaign/robburrow 

Rob Burrow fund - https://www.gofundme.com/f/leeds-players-association-supporting-rob-burrow Leeds Hospital Charity - https://www.leedshospitalscharity.org.uk/donate/mnd-centre-appeal

Formula 1 2024 - Australian Grand Prix

 Apparently, getting your appendix removed acts like go-faster stripes - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68649296

Before any of the speed freaks get any ideas, that's a joke.

A Ferrari 1-2 should always be celebrated, except there's that sinking feeling that it was only possible because Max Verstappen's car broke.

Also, having the race carry on while a driver was trapped in his car on the circuit - not good. F1, you are better than that.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 6 and the season to date - now with the Challenge Cup

I was torn about including the Challenge Cup matches in this analysis. Because it's supposed to be covering the League, and the Cup is separate from the League. 

On the other hand, as L pointed out when I asked, Rugby League is not like football; because the Super League teams only join the cup in the 6th round, there isn't as much squad rotation. Therefore, I am going to include the Challenge Cup games. 

Of course, the minute I do that, Saints don't play two of their previous "always presents", Makinson and Dodd, in the Challenge Cup match against Leeds. Dodd was explained as a precautionary, but I'm not sure if an explanation was ever given for Makinson's absence. Saints also played Clark and Mbye together, which is also going to confuse the diagrams. 

This was the second away match against Leeds in a row, and sure, Saints had beaten them in the League (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/leeds-rhinos-v-saints-2024-03-15/) but I then had the fear over the Challenge Cup match. Saints won (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/03/22/saints-progress-to-challenge-cup-quarter-finals/) 

The changes to the team meant the "play together when Saints score in game 6" matrix looks like this: The most interesting thing to me is that the crossing point for Batchelor, Wingfield, Delaney, Bell and Clark and Knowles and Walmsley is so pale, suggesting that those two don't play on the pitch with the others when Saints score. 

Because this was the second match of Percival's ban (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/04/05/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-4-and-the-season-to-date/), Lomax who took over the kicking duties from Percival really has shot up the "Point-scoring moments, season to date" chart.

   

In the point-scoring moments present for diagram, for the season to date, the Whitley, Welsby, Lomax, Dodd and Makinson group has been broken up. The dendrogram has become very complicated. Which also makes the matrix complicated.  

As well as Sironen and Clark's crossing point being darker than their surrounding area, suggesting they play together more often, so is Clark and Lees and Walmsley and Sironen, while Walmsley and Clark, Clark and Delaney and Percival and Blake have paler crossings than expected. 

The network diagram looks like this:  

It's now 19 players. 

It's interesting that his suspension for two games has moved Percival out of the middle, and there's now a decided cluster of replacement props at the left. 

Looking at the concession diagrams, Clark is higher up in this than expected. Whitley, Welsby and Lomax are ever presents so their presence makes sense. Clark's less so. 

The dendrogram is three clusters, and three straight lines:  

I do find it interesting that there's two separate forward clusters, possibly suggesting forward pairings. 

The matrix looks like a zoomed-in tartan. The Blake and Mata'utia, Mata'utia and Hurrell, Sironen and Bell and Bennison and Bell crossing squares are darker than expected, while the Bennison and Mata'utia, Makinson and Sironen, Mbye and Makinson and Walmsley and Sironen crossings are lighter than expected. 

The concession network graph still only has 11 players on it.  

I'm not sure why Welsby is in the outer ring, not the middle. 

I don't think it's quite at the point where I can guess the starting 17, but I think it's getting there. I blame uncertainty around the forwards.