Wednesday 17 April 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 6 and the season to date - now with the Challenge Cup

I was torn about including the Challenge Cup matches in this analysis. Because it's supposed to be covering the League, and the Cup is separate from the League. 

On the other hand, as L pointed out when I asked, Rugby League is not like football; because the Super League teams only join the cup in the 6th round, there isn't as much squad rotation. Therefore, I am going to include the Challenge Cup games. 

Of course, the minute I do that, Saints don't play two of their previous "always presents", Makinson and Dodd, in the Challenge Cup match against Leeds. Dodd was explained as a precautionary, but I'm not sure if an explanation was ever given for Makinson's absence. Saints also played Clark and Mbye together, which is also going to confuse the diagrams. 

This was the second away match against Leeds in a row, and sure, Saints had beaten them in the League (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/leeds-rhinos-v-saints-2024-03-15/) but I then had the fear over the Challenge Cup match. Saints won (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/03/22/saints-progress-to-challenge-cup-quarter-finals/

The changes to the team meant the "play together when Saints score in game 6" matrix looks like this: There is a cluster of dark purple always together of Whitley, Welsby, Mbye, Matautia, Lomax, Hurrell, Bennison and Blake.  Then there is the orange of Delaney, Bell and Clark.  Sironen and Wingfield are the next level of orange down, but they are split by a yellow-orange Batchelor.  Lees at the top is the next orange, between Lees and Sironen are the palest, Knowles and Walmsley. The most interesting thing to me is that the crossing point for Batchelor, Wingfield, Delaney, Bell and Clark and Knowles and Walmsley is so pale, suggesting that those two don't play on the pitch with the others when Saints score. 

Because this was the second match of Percival's ban (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/04/05/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-4-and-the-season-to-date/), Lomax who took over the kicking duties from Percival really has shot up the "Point-scoring moments, season to date" chart.
  Bar chart.  Percival still has the most with 10.  Lomax now has 8.  They are followed on 4 by Welsby, Makinson and Dodd, then Whitley and Bennison on 3, Walmsley and Clark on 2, then Mbye, Matautia, Knowles and Blake on 1. 

In the point-scoring moments present for diagram, for the season to date, the Whitley, Welsby, Lomax, Dodd and Makinson group has been broken up. Bar chart - Whitley, Welsby and Lomax are the only players present for all point-scoring moments.  Blake has been present for 40.  Then come Makinson and Dodd.  On the bottom end, Batchelor is finally present (yay!), then Davies and Knowles. The dendrogram has become very complicated. Deliberately not writing every players name.  There are now three clusters.  At the bottom, there are Lees, Knowles, Walmsley and Davies, the lesser used props.  Then there is a frequently present group that are not tightly clustered, and finally Mbye and Batchelor stuck out at the top. Which also makes the matrix complicated. The purple cluster is now only Whitley, Welsby and Lomax.  The two dark red patches are where their lines cross those of the other players who play often.  The dark orange is the players one step less frequent.  There is one sticky out dark orange square for where Sironen and Clark cross.  The medium orange are the next step down.  The medium orange chunk is broken up by a line of yellow for Percival, thanks to him being subbed off early in games and because he missed two matches suspended.  Lees and Walmsley are the next palest, then Mbye, Knowles, Davies and Batchelor. 

As well as Sironen and Clark's crossing point being darker than their surrounding area, suggesting they play together more often, so is Clark and Lees and Walmsley and Sironen, while Walmsley and Clark, Clark and Delaney and Percival and Blake have paler crossings than expected. 

The network diagram looks like this: There is a central cluster of Welsby, Whitley and Lomax, surrounded by an outer ring of (clockwise from top) Dodd, Sironen, Clark, Blake, Bennison, Hurrell, Bell and Makinson.  Outside them to the left are Wingfield and Delaney, and Matautia to the bottom.  Sticking out at the top is Percival, then Walmsley, Lees and Knowles to the right, and Mbye at the bottom left. 

It's now 19 players. 

It's interesting that his suspension for two games has moved Percival out of the middle, and there's now a decided cluster of replacement props at the left. 

Looking at the concession diagrams, Clark is higher up in this than expected. Present for all 15 of them are Whitley, Welsby, Lomax and Clark.  Mbye is present for the least with 2. Whitley, Welsby and Lomax are ever presents so their presence makes sense. Clark's less so. 

The dendrogram is three clusters, and three straight lines: Starting from the bottom, the first cluster is Matautia, Hurrell, Knowles, Lees and Walmsley, then there are the three straight lines of Mbye, Percival and Wingfield, then the frequently present cluster, and at the top is another forward cluster of Delaney, Bell and Sironen. 

I do find it interesting that there's two separate forward clusters, possibly suggesting forward pairings. 

The matrix looks like a zoomed-in tartan. The dark purple cluster is cut through by a single red-brown line, causing the tartan effect.  The red-brown line is Makinson. The Blake and Mata'utia, Mata'utia and Hurrell, Sironen and Bell and Bennison and Bell crossing squares are darker than expected, while the Bennison and Mata'utia, Makinson and Sironen, Mbye and Makinson and Walmsley and Sironen crossings are lighter than expected. 

The concession network graph still only has 11 players on it. It is now a central trio of Clark, Whitley and Lomax, surrounded by (clockwork from the top), Delaney, Welsby, Bennison, Makinson, Dodd, Blake, Sironen and Bell. 

I'm not sure why Welsby is in the outer ring, not the middle. 

I don't think it's quite at the point where I can guess the starting 17, but I think it's getting there. I blame uncertainty around the forwards.

No comments:

Post a Comment