Friday, 21 March 2025

Formula 1 2025 - Australian Grand Prix

An editorial decision was made to skip the rest of my 2024 write ups, on the principle that it's been, gone and done, and I have nothing interesting to add other than I really wasn't expecting George Russell to be that bitey. I think it is going to be the only way that Verstappen will stop knocking into people, if people knock back. 

Ferrari totally won the meme contest in Australia, that counts for something, right? 

I am aware it counts for nothing. I am trying to make myself feel better given that Ferrari somehow managed to finish behind a Sauber. 

A Sauber!!! 

(The Hülkenberg fan in me is so happy. If Sauber could get him a podium this year I will be ecstatic. The Ferrari fan in me is not comforted by this joy. It is a very odd feeling.) 

(I also feel vindicated in my belief that Binotto was not the problem. In much the way Domenicali, Arrivabene and Vasseur are not the problem.)

The vindication also does not comfort me. 

I will stick up for the strategy team however. If that strategy had paid off, they would have been feted as heroes. It's a fine line, and I'd rather them fail by making a decision than fail by dithering. I mean, I'd be even happier if they didn't fail, but I am recalibrating my hopes at this point. 

With regard to other teams, that second Red Bull seat remains cursed, I see that Helmut Marko is living up to the Darth Helmut jokes (although Anthony Hamilton is so lovely), and the Aussie curse has hit Piastri. 

All in all, an interesting season opener.

Wednesday, 19 March 2025

So when are Georgia replacing Wales in the Six Nations?

It's now been two whole Six Nations tournaments since Wales last won a game in the 6 Nations.

This year, they even got nil-ed (https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/en/m6n/fixtures/2025/france-v-wales-31012025-2115/report).

What are they even adding to the competition?

Don't worry, I am only being sarcastic, and I don't want rid of Wales, not least of all because I love Adam Jones.

But it is interesting that while there are suggestions that Wales (who came bottom of the 6 Nations) should have a play off against Georgia who won the Rugby Europe Championship, which is the next level down (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/articles/cn04pz1wezyo), to see who gets to be in the 6 Nations next year, there's nothing like the volume of suggestions that really, the bottom team ought to be got rid of, like there was when it was Italy down there, not being able to scrape a win by any means.

Why the difference? Is it because Italy, being the newest participants in the 6 Nations are not one of the "old boys", or is it because the other "big teams" are scared that one day it'll be them down there?

In my sports-watching life time, I have seen every 6 Nations team other than England be the Wooden Spoon (team in last place) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship#Wooden_Spoon 

If you think it could happen to you, you're less likely to suggest it when it happens to a Union of the same venerability as yours.

Even 8 years ago (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2017/04/02/how-dyou-solve-a-problem-like-italian-rugby/) I was suggesting a play-off would be better than straight replacement of a team, so I'm glad everyone is realising I was right.

It's even more important now - lack of regular play against the top teams *is* holding Georgia back, and given Portugal's heroics at the last Rugby Union World Cup, the lack of mobility between what I will call tier 2 and tier 1 gives them very little to aim for or any way of improving.

If it's just one team swapped out permanently, that doesn't solve the problem of growing the depth of the game.

There are some downsides to the playoff plan - most importantly, where to fit the game in an already packed calendar and maintain player welfare. But I can't think of a more equitable solution.

Saturday, 15 March 2025

Saints Ahoy - Game 22 and the 2024 season to date

Subtle change in name to reflect that the 2025 Rugby League Super League season has started. 

Game 22 was against Hull FC. This time Hull actually managed to score against Saints: Bar chart showing which teams have scored against Saints.  Hull FC only feature once because they were nilled in the first game versus Saints.  Hull KR, on the other hand, have scored the second most points against Saints in 2024 to this point. 

I wish Saints had kept a clean sheet, but (shrug). 

The good news for Saints is that Morgan Knowles was back from injury in this game, and Jake Burns, got his first ever try for the senior team, then the second in the same game. (A bit of background - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/teams/first-team/jake-burns/ He might be one of the last of the proper, has a non-Saints career to fall back on, players). The most heart-warming part, exactly how happy the Saints Twitter guy was. 

The game 22 "who is present together when Saints score" matrix diagram, I'm including it because I think it looks pretty, and it's nicely shows how forwards interchange (paler colours), while the backs stay on (darker colours). Matrix graph of which Saints players are together when Saints score in game 22.  The dark purple patch, of Whitley, Robertson, Ritson, Mbye, Makinson, Dodd, Blake and Davies, who are mostly backs, were together a lot.  The forwards, Paasi, Lees, Clark, Bell, Sironen, Knowles, Batchelor, Burns and Stephens, are paler because they are substituted on and off. 

For the season to date, Saints have had 172 point-scoring moments and 98 conceded. 

22 players have scored for Saints. Bar chart.  Makinson is far in the lead, with almost 60 point-scoring moments, followed by Percival and Lomax, who both score tries and are the stand-in kickers if Makinson is off the pitch. 

The "Saints often score in minutes 50-53" has been reinforced. Bar chart of when Saints score.  The minute with the most point-scoring moments is minute 50 with 6.  However, there are also 4 point scoring moments in minute 51, 5 in minute 52 and 3 in minute 53.  There is no other cluster with so many point scoring moments. 
Who is present when Saints score? Bar chart showing who is present when Saints score.  Welsby is still near the top despite being away with an injury, but Blake has been present for most.  After Blake and Welsby, there is a large drop off to Dodd and Hurrell who have been present for the next most. 

The present-together-when-Saints-score matrix has an interesting pattern. Whitley's line makes that pattern. This is because he was present for a lot of point-scoring moments early in the season, then was out for a while, and has now been present for several more tries now he's back. So he's been separated from the main "often present when Saints score" group, but has still been present a lot with them. Matrix of players often together when Saints score, up to game 22.  The bottom right corner contains the players most often together when Saints score (Welsby, Blake, Dodd, Hurrell, Percival, Sironen, Bell, Clark, Lomax, Mbye, Makinson, Matautia, Delaney, Lees).  Then there is a paler chunk, the darker Whitley line, explained above, and then the palest, least often group who are top-most and lefter-most. 

The equivalent network graph looks like this. Network graph - there is a central blob.  Wingfield and Walmsley stick out at the top.  Sticking out middle left is Royle.  Sticking out at the bottom is Paasi and bottom right is Burns.  There are links between Royle and Paasi.  Also sticking out from the main blob at the bottom, but not as much, are Davies, Ritson, Robertson and Stephens.  There are lots of links from them to Royle, Paasi and Burns, and many between them. When do Saints concede? Bar chart.  There are 4 minutes with 5 point-conceding moments, minutes 11, 32, 76 and 80. 

The pattern of Saints conceding minute 9-12 has gone. It is starting to look like Saints concede a lot in the last 10 minutes, which I'm not sure is reflective of tiredness (justifiable) or more time needed on conditioning (not acceptable). 

Who is present when Saints concede? Bar chart showing who is present when Saints concede.  Blake is present for the most, then there is a sharp drop to Welsby and Lomax, who are present for the next most, then Clark, present for 76 of the point-conceding moments. 

The matrix diagram of players together when Saints concede also looks interesting. It basically looks like a tartan with a repeating pattern, but each repeat is slightly paler. Matrix diagram of players together often when Saints concede.  The first, darkest, repeat, is bottom right, and contains, Clark, Dodd, Bell, Sironen, Hurrell, Delaney, Percival, Makinson, Lees and Mbye.  The next cluster up and out are Blake, Lomax, Welsby, Whitley, Matautia, Bennison, Batchelor, Knowles.  The palest repeat is both top and leftermost and contains Ritson, Davies, Robertson, Paasi, Stephens and Vaughan.  There is another section, all pale yellow, above and to the left of them, it contains Walmsley, Burns, Wingfield and Royle. 

The concession network graph just looks odd. Network graph - while these is a central blob, this is more diffuse than the scoring network graph. Wingfield sticks out to the top and right, and links only to the central blob.  Stephens, Robertson, Paasi and Vaughan stick out bottom right, and have links between each other and the central blob.  Royle sticks out bottom left, and only has links to the central blob.  Walmsley sticks out at the top and only has links to the central blob.

Monday, 10 March 2025

Not actually yearly round up of film locations

There's a reason L says the motto for my blog should be "I never drop projects, I just don't update them for a while". 

This one used to be yearly and then stuff happened, so I'm taking the chance to update it now. This is a list of all the locations where films I have mentioned up to August 2020 (yes, I know). 

Looking only at real locations, the US and UK lead the way. Pie chart of film locations, the US and UK take up just over 50 percent of the pie. 

It's a lot less clear cut when I include fictional locations. Pie chart of film locations, including fictional places.  Now it takes the US, UK, outer space and the righter most edge of France to make up 50 percent of the pie 
There's still an disturbing, overwhelming, more than 80% of them are set there, English slant to the films set in the UK. It does possible suggest something about film funding in the UK, and where Hollywood sets films when they're set in the UK. Pie chart.  Only England and Scotland are represented and England is the setting for 87 percent of all the films set in the UK. When I have time to learn how to do nice map plots, I think this will be my dataset.

Saturday, 8 March 2025

Formula 1 - Belgian Grand Prix 2024

 The reason I couldn't remember a thing about the race was because I was flying to the US at the time. It was a bad race to miss because it sounds like many things actual happened - https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2024/belgium A race, with racing, and then disqualification nonsense. Apparently that's the first win lost to a technical disqualification since Schumacher!


Also at Spa!!

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Belgian_Grand_Prix for full details)