Saints Ahoy - Visualisations up to Game 8

I warned you that real life had happened so I'm now catching up. 

The next match analysed for this project was Saints away to Catalan Dragons on the 6th of April. 

The match ended with what the Saints website described as a narrow away loss - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/04/06/saints-suffer-narrow-loss-away-at-catalans/ 

What it did do was bring up 50 point-scoring moments for Saints (so 6.25 scoring moments per match). There is no pattern as to when Saints score (or at least not yet). While there is no pattern, the lack of conversions starting to show (you'd expect a differently coloured bit next to each other or on top of each other, there aren't many of those). This is a problem and will be a problem come the play-offs, presuming we make it. 

Which Saints players are present when they score? Whitely, Welsby and Lomax were present for all 50 point-scoring moments. The next most present are Makinson and Dodd. 

Present least often are Mbye (12), Batchelor (6) and Davies (4). Davies is because he was out injured (and then sent out to Swinton to get match fit [https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/sport/23520688.paul-wellens-gives-konrad-hurrell-update-praise-ben-davies/]). Mbye's is because he only plays when Daryl Clarke can't or needs spell on the bench. 

I'm not sharing the dendrogram because it's officially too complicated to interpret. 

The matrix diagram looks like this. Paler squares are for players who do not play together when Saints score. These are starting to form some interesting patterns: 

Bell, Lees, Knowles 

Hurrell, Lees, Knowles 

Mata'utia, Walmsley 

Sironen, Wingfield 

Dodd, Lees 

Makinson, Lees, Knowles 

Some of these I can explain as forwards who don't play together often. Makinson and Lees and Knowles, and Dodd and Lees, I can't explain. 

There are 19 players in the network graph, like there was last time (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/06/03/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-7-and-the-season-to-date/). It's tilted about 90 degrees anti-clockwise and now looks like a slightly nobbily tilted square. The central chunk are Sironen, Blake, Lomax, Matautia, Welsby and Whitely. The chunk on top are Dodd, Clark and Makinson. The chunk on the bottom are Hurrell, Bennison and Bell Outside (from top left) = Knowles, Percival (I presume because of injury and suspension), Delaney, Wingfield, Mbye, Lees and Walmsley 

In the 8 games, Saints have conceded 21 point-scoring moments. 

 Most interestingly, they have conceded at minute 76 to two different teams. The three players most present when Saints score are also most present when they concede, then Bennison, then Makinson and Dodd. Bennison much higher on the "when Saints concede" chart than on the "when Saints score chart". The players present for the least concession moments are Walmsley, Lees and Percival, which is probably due to the number of minutes those three players have played. 

If we look at the concession matrix, it looks like this: The players whose crossing points are paler than expected, which suggests they don't play together when Saints concede are: 

Clark and Mbye (which makes sense because they are both hookers) 

Dodd and Lees 

Makinson and Lees 

Blake, Percival and Mbye 

Hurrell and Wingfield 

Delaney and Mbye 

Knowles and Wingfield 

Mata'utia and Wingfield 

The Wingfield paler bits are probably because he was playing with them before he got injured (https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/sport/24313416.saints-heart-broken-jake-wingfields-shoulder-injury/)

The network graph for when Saints concede There are 15 players in the network graph. The central chunk, clockwise from top (in a sort of diamond) are Hurrell, Dodd, Welsby, Clark, Bell, Makinson, Sironen, around a central trio of Lomax, Whitley, and Bennison. Outside are Matautia, Knowles, Blake, Wingfield, Delaney 

Again, I think the injury is why Wingfield is out there.

Euro 2024 Final Network Diagram

Looks like this: The labelled version looks like this: The thing that really leaps out at me, having done this since Euro 2012 is how much more interconnected the final two teams are. 

In 2012, only one club team, Manchester City, would have had someone on the winning team no matter what. 

In 2024, four teams can say that, Manchester City again, along with Real Madrid, Chelsea and Arsenal. 

Chelsea are the club team closest to the centre. 

Five club teams share the position of "most players left in", Real Madrid, Arsenal, Barcelona, Manchester City and Crystal Palace all have 4 players left in. Crystal Palace is the one that surprises me the most and suggests they have a much better academy system than I suspected. 

As England have got to the final with me not watching, I will continue not to watch lest I am a jinx. It's an odd situation where I have no preferred team, although both teams have a couple of players I really like.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - It looks like the semifinals could get interesting

I said Spain vs Germany would be close (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/07/04/euro-2024-network-diagram-quarterfinals/). And I think the semifinals are going to be even closer. Normally at this stage, there might be an outlier, but this time everyone is evenly spaced. The community view has got complicated, because the 4 teams make eight communities. The four countries are their own communities but four teams are also their own communities. They are West Ham in a sort of dark green, Bayern Munich who are an orangey pink, Brentford who are a mauve-ish purple and Atletico Madrid who are a slightly darker blue that is hard to tell apart from England blue (sorry about that). 

The club team closest to the centre are West Ham, Bayer Leverkusen or RB Leipzig. 

There's a real mix of teams with the most representatives still in, but Real Madrid have the most. This is what the list looks like: 

Real Madrid = 7 

Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain = 6 

Barcelona, Arsenal, Real Sociedad, Manchester City = 5 

I'm not even going to try to predict the semifinals from this.

Euro 2024 Network Diagrams - Quarterfinals

Okay, so Austria are out, as I suspected they would be. 

For the second Euros in a row, a team they beat in the group stage has gone further than them. But at least it took this absolute stunner of a save for Turkey to beat Austria - https://x.com/EURO2024/status/1808266570327634063 

Of the clear predictions, the diagram was 4/4, and the diagram was part of why I wasn't surprised by Italy or Austria's losses. (I have a series of theories about why the UK press always underestimates Turkey, they are all rude.) 

So, what does the diagram look like now? As expected, the outlying teams all lost, so there's now only the central core teams left. 

Looking at the unlabelled diagram, the central clump is now not as clumped, and one team sticks out to the right.  Labelled, it looks like this: France are the team closest to the centre, while AC Milan are the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most representatives left are Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain with 10, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Manchester City with 9, then Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool with 7 (stop giggling back there about that linkage). 

Inter Milan have been significantly reduced, not just because of Italy going out but also because they had several players in other teams that have been eliminated. 

All the teams are their own community in the community views.  

I can understand why Inter Milan are French in the community view, what with Italy going out, but Manchester City and Manchester United being Portuguese intrigues me. 

Predictions from this (and the reason why I'm writing this while watching the election coverage so it's out before tomorrow): 

Spain vs Germany - Diagram says Germany, just 

Portugal vs France - Diagram says France 

England vs Switzerland - too close to call 

Netherlands vs Turkey - Diagram says Netherlands (this one is the one I think could be an upset. This Turkey team have a vibe.)