Euro 2024 Network Diagrams - Quarterfinals

Okay, so Austria are out, as I suspected they would be. 

For the second Euros in a row, a team they beat in the group stage has gone further than them. But at least it took this absolute stunner of a save for Turkey to beat Austria - https://x.com/EURO2024/status/1808266570327634063 

Of the clear predictions, the diagram was 4/4, and the diagram was part of why I wasn't surprised by Italy or Austria's losses. (I have a series of theories about why the UK press always underestimates Turkey, they are all rude.) 

So, what does the diagram look like now? As expected, the outlying teams all lost, so there's now only the central core teams left. 

Looking at the unlabelled diagram, the central clump is now not as clumped, and one team sticks out to the right.  Labelled, it looks like this: France are the team closest to the centre, while AC Milan are the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most representatives left are Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain with 10, Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Manchester City with 9, then Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool with 7 (stop giggling back there about that linkage). 

Inter Milan have been significantly reduced, not just because of Italy going out but also because they had several players in other teams that have been eliminated. 

All the teams are their own community in the community views.  

I can understand why Inter Milan are French in the community view, what with Italy going out, but Manchester City and Manchester United being Portuguese intrigues me. 

Predictions from this (and the reason why I'm writing this while watching the election coverage so it's out before tomorrow): 

Spain vs Germany - Diagram says Germany, just 

Portugal vs France - Diagram says France 

England vs Switzerland - too close to call 

Netherlands vs Turkey - Diagram says Netherlands (this one is the one I think could be an upset. This Turkey team have a vibe.)

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Now the group stage community views

I described the group stage diagram as looking like a peacock (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/06/15/euro-2024-network-diagram-only-a-day-late/), and I'm amazed how many of the peacock tail survived. Well done Georgia and Romania in particular. 

My prediction for who would go out was Albania, Slovenia, Romania, Georgia, Ukraine and Scotland, then Slovakia and Hungary, with Poland or Austria in place of one of Romania, Slovakia or Ukraine. I was right for 5/8, which I could as going okay. I also hadn't expected Belgium to turn the Group of Cuddly into the Group of Sickos.

 

The network graphs for the last 16 look like this:  The central core are still there (mostly, really wasn't expecting Croatia to go out), with four teams trailing out to the right. Labelled, it looks like this: Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Georgia being so far away from the main core highlights how much of a surprise their going through to the last 16 is. 

Because of the odd weighting, identifying the central team is less valuable than usual. Italy are the national team closest to the centre, and Juventus are the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most players left in are Inter Milan and Paris Saint-Germain with 12, then Manchester City with 11, then Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Barcelona 10.

The community view looks like this:    Now each team is it's own community. 

Predictions, as requested by L. 

Spain vs Georgia - diagram says Spain 

Germany vs Denmark - no clear winner on the diagram 

Portugal vs Slovenia - diagram says Portugal 

France vs Belgium - diagram says France 

Romania vs Netherlands - diagram says Netherlands 

Austria vs Turkey - no clear winner on the diagram (I will be crossing my fingers and avoiding the match) 

England vs Slovakia - diagram says England 

Switzerland vs Italy - no clear winner on the diagram 

That central core is tightly packed, which is what's led to that uncertainty.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Now the group stage community views

Because I was trying to race the start of the Euros with my diagrams, I didn't add the community view.

They're below and are quite busy.    There are 20 communities for 24 teams. 

Belgium and Denmark share a community because both teams have players that play for Anderlecht. France and Portugal share a community because of their Paris Saint Germain players.  

Then there's Albania and Croatia, and despite almost being on opposite sides of the diagram, Austria and Hungary are one group.

Euro 2024 Network Diagram - Only a day late

(Stuff, still happening. Everything, still late.) 

So after OMG! 12 years of doing this, I know what shape I am expecting from this sort of thing. 

I am expecting a central tight core, surrounded by others (like the diagram below).  

Now sometimes, the cluster is shifted and tighter at one point rather than the centre, like at the Women's World Cup 2023 (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/07/22/womens-world-cup-2023-group-stage-network-diagrams/), but what I didn't expect is what this one looks like. 

I've made a simplified description below because having 24 teams with 26* players each makes the diagram really busy. (* Except France and Belgium, because ... actually does anyone know why?)  

So there's one cluster, and the other, less connected, teams splay out like a peacock's tail.

This is what the real one looks like:    The same diagram, but now labelled, which only makes it busier.  

It does make identifying the central team less worthwhile than usual. 

That team are Italy. 

Turkey are a lot closer to the cluster centre than I expected. 

One of Fulham, Tottenham Hotspur and Atletico Madrid are the club team closest to the centre. 

The clubs with the most representatives are Inter Milan and Manchester City with 13. The come Real Madrid, Barcelona and Paris Saint Germain with 12, the Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig with 11. 

Interestingly, a lot of Barcelona and Real Madrid players are not playing for Spain and we've definitely moved on from the days where Spanish players played for either one or the other. 

I am not even getting into the whole thing about 3 different club teams all being Red Bull teams (not least because I have a whole post about it here - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/03/29/in-which-we-know-that-uefa-wont-do-anything-about-dual-ownership-but-a-girl-can-dream/). 

Prediction: From the diagram, I think the 8 teams that will be eliminated will be Albania, Slovenia, Romania, Georgia, Ukraine and Scotland, then Slovakia and Hungary. 

You'll note that includes none of the group D teams, supporting the theory that it really is a group of Death!!! I suspect one of Poland and Austria will be out instead of Ukraine. Group E more like the group of cuddly if you're Belgium.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 7 and the season to date

(Sorry for the break, RL happened with a vengeance) 

The most important thing about Easter weekend was that the forces of Good (Saints) beat the forces of Evil (Wigan) in the Good Friday game, somewhat against the run of form. 

In the sort of derby where it was 2-0 at half time, 3 people went off for Head Injury Assessments and there was somehow only 1 yellow card 

https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/03/29/saints-defeat-wigan-on-good-friday/ https://twitter.com/SuperLeague/status/1773756078875959601 - Tommy, Tommy Mak 

Those are the important rugby points ;) 

There is still no obvious pattern to when Saints score Percival and Lomax, the kickers, are still the people with the highest number of point-scoring moments, as expected. Tommy Makinson is still doing his thing (Tommy Tommy Mak!) But there's also no pattern to when they score. Only 3 players have been present for all point-scoring moments, Whitley, Welsby and Lomax. In the matrix, the cluster of always theres has moved into the middle, possibly because there's so few of them. There are now 19 people in the present when Saints score network graph, a central 15, plus Mbye, Lees, Knowles and Walmsley stuck out from them. Moving over to when Saints concede. Our three ever presents are here as well but Bennison is there as well, which is unexpected. Not sure if he's just been unfortunate to be on the pitch when Saints are short-handed, or if I need to start shouting about defensive practise. The network diagram for when Saints concede now has 13 players. ~~~~ 

Given the sad news - Rugby league legend Burrow dies aged 41 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/articles/c2qqwvwzp5zo) - if you like these posts and have a few quid to spare, there's a couple of funds that could do with donations: 

Motor Neurone Disease Association - https://www.justgiving.com/campaign/robburrow 

Rob Burrow fund - https://www.gofundme.com/f/leeds-players-association-supporting-rob-burrow Leeds Hospital Charity - https://www.leedshospitalscharity.org.uk/donate/mnd-centre-appeal

Formula 1 2024 - Australian Grand Prix

 Apparently, getting your appendix removed acts like go-faster stripes - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68649296

Before any of the speed freaks get any ideas, that's a joke.

A Ferrari 1-2 should always be celebrated, except there's that sinking feeling that it was only possible because Max Verstappen's car broke.

Also, having the race carry on while a driver was trapped in his car on the circuit - not good. F1, you are better than that.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 6 and the season to date - now with the Challenge Cup

I was torn about including the Challenge Cup matches in this analysis. Because it's supposed to be covering the League, and the Cup is separate from the League. 

On the other hand, as L pointed out when I asked, Rugby League is not like football; because the Super League teams only join the cup in the 6th round, there isn't as much squad rotation. Therefore, I am going to include the Challenge Cup games. 

Of course, the minute I do that, Saints don't play two of their previous "always presents", Makinson and Dodd, in the Challenge Cup match against Leeds. Dodd was explained as a precautionary, but I'm not sure if an explanation was ever given for Makinson's absence. Saints also played Clark and Mbye together, which is also going to confuse the diagrams. 

This was the second away match against Leeds in a row, and sure, Saints had beaten them in the League (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/leeds-rhinos-v-saints-2024-03-15/) but I then had the fear over the Challenge Cup match. Saints won (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/03/22/saints-progress-to-challenge-cup-quarter-finals/) 

The changes to the team meant the "play together when Saints score in game 6" matrix looks like this: The most interesting thing to me is that the crossing point for Batchelor, Wingfield, Delaney, Bell and Clark and Knowles and Walmsley is so pale, suggesting that those two don't play on the pitch with the others when Saints score. 

Because this was the second match of Percival's ban (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/04/05/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-4-and-the-season-to-date/), Lomax who took over the kicking duties from Percival really has shot up the "Point-scoring moments, season to date" chart.

   

In the point-scoring moments present for diagram, for the season to date, the Whitley, Welsby, Lomax, Dodd and Makinson group has been broken up. The dendrogram has become very complicated. Which also makes the matrix complicated.  

As well as Sironen and Clark's crossing point being darker than their surrounding area, suggesting they play together more often, so is Clark and Lees and Walmsley and Sironen, while Walmsley and Clark, Clark and Delaney and Percival and Blake have paler crossings than expected. 

The network diagram looks like this:  

It's now 19 players. 

It's interesting that his suspension for two games has moved Percival out of the middle, and there's now a decided cluster of replacement props at the left. 

Looking at the concession diagrams, Clark is higher up in this than expected. Whitley, Welsby and Lomax are ever presents so their presence makes sense. Clark's less so. 

The dendrogram is three clusters, and three straight lines:  

I do find it interesting that there's two separate forward clusters, possibly suggesting forward pairings. 

The matrix looks like a zoomed-in tartan. The Blake and Mata'utia, Mata'utia and Hurrell, Sironen and Bell and Bennison and Bell crossing squares are darker than expected, while the Bennison and Mata'utia, Makinson and Sironen, Mbye and Makinson and Walmsley and Sironen crossings are lighter than expected. 

The concession network graph still only has 11 players on it.  

I'm not sure why Welsby is in the outer ring, not the middle. 

I don't think it's quite at the point where I can guess the starting 17, but I think it's getting there. I blame uncertainty around the forwards.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 5 and the season to date

I told you I was trying to catch up with everything that I'd missed. I am aware I am 3 rugby league games (about to be four) and 2 F1 races behind. 

The Leeds Rhinos vs St Helens Saints league game (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/leeds-rhinos-v-saints-2024-03-15/) was the first of two back-to-back games vs Leeds. Despite Leeds's poor start to the season (by their standards), I was quite worried about this game. 

Saints proceeded to not help matters by not turning up for the first quarter of the match.

When Saints conceded:    

This match was also the first time the Saints live text has let me down. 

I know Mbye must have come on before he scored, but it didn't say when, so there's now going to be a slight * against him and Clark's data (because if he came on for anyone, it was Clark as they are our hookers). The advantage to getting data over a whole season is that one oops ought to be watered down. 

Who scored for Saints up to game 5? With Percival missing the game due to being sent off in the last game (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/04/05/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-4-and-the-season-to-date/), Lomax took over the kicking duties, which is why he has risen so far up that bar chart.

Okay, let's look at point-scoring moments players were present for:  

The dendrogram for when players are on the pitch together at Saints's point-scoring moments has become more complex, there's only really one true cluster left, of Lomax, Makinson, Dodd, Welsby and Whitley. 

What is interesting is that there's now two clear "families" of players, Lees, Knowles, Walmsley, Davies and Mbye in one, and everyone else in the other. I know Lees and Knowles haven't played as much as I would have expected, Davies barely at all, and Mbye only when they need to spell Clark, but I felt Walmsley had played more. So count one for stats telling you something you don't feel.

  On the other hand, the matrix diagram does have Walmsley in a darker colour than the others so maybe he is just very effective when he is on the pitch. The network graph is now an interesting shape, with a central cluster with Walmsley, Lees and Knowles hanging off.  

Looking at when Saints concede instead:  

The players present for the most (Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd and Clark) are the ones that have been present the most when Saints score, with the exception of Clark who is sometimes swapped out for Mbye. 

Looking at the players present for the least, Walmsley and Lees are present for the least, with 3, then Percival and Matautia with 4 and Knowles and Hurrell for 5.  I'm starting to wonder if I have anyway of looking at it divided by time played, because I know Percival was being subbed out at 50 mins even before the sending off. 

The concession dendrogram has the same pattern as the bar chart. 

The concession matrix has an interesting pattern of colours  

I was only expecting one really dark cluster, not two, and the points where Sironen, Delaney, Wingfield and Bell cross Matautia, Lees and Walmsley are so pale that it is clear that they do not play together, so I think we can really start to see who the forward pairings are when Saints concede. 

Wingfield and Knowles don't play together, and neither do Bell and Hurrell. 

That Percival doesn't play with Matautia, Lees and Walmsley is unexpected. 

There are still only 11 players on the "when Saints concede" network diagram,

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 4 and the season to date

(Delayed due to extreme RL busyness)

L was slightly concerned that I hadn't stated that I was a Saints fan quite loudly enough in my previous posts. I think it may become obvious throughout this summary of the Saints vs Salford match. All winning runs have to come to an end, and 44 years is a pretty long time to not be beaten at home (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/68501496 / https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-salford-red-devils-2024-03-08/) and they needed Percival to get sent off for goodness knows what to beat Saints. 

That does explain why Percival is, once again, alone in the dendrogram.  

It shows you that Sironen put one heck of a shift in to cover for Saints being a man down. 

This match has an interesting effect on the "up to the end of game 4" charts. 

When Saints score still hasn't really built up into an informative pile of data, but point-scorers (no division between tries and kicks) is starting to:  Percival having the most moments makes sense, with him being the kicker (if only he could convert more often), and Dodd and Makinson who can also kick makes sense, Welsby up there highlights his wonderful poaching abilities. Whitley on 3 is an unexpected bonus. He's working out well so far, isn't he? 

Point-scoring moments present for also highlights those players, and makes it clear Clark is definitely first choice hooker.  

I do like how high up some of the academy grads are. I mean the most recent crop, not some of the older heads (help, Lomax is now an older head). 

The matrix is starting to look complicated: The network diagram does give a nice matchday 17 - Sironen, Dodd, Clark, Lomax, Blake, Percival, Whitley, Makinson, Welsby, Matautia, Lees, Walmsley, Bell, Hurrell, Delaney, Wingfield and Bennison.

Because Salford scored several points, there's now enough data to have some solid numbers for "players present when Saints concede". The only problem is it won't include Percival as much as it maybe should given his sending off was sort of responsible for some of the concessions. Percival is also a darker colour than expected on the concession matrix. The network diagram for players present when Saints concede only has 11 players on. The diagrams are mostly making me appreciate Sironen at lot more. There's a reason why Saints fans rate him.