Monday, 27 May 2013

Monaco Grand Prix


After a break for fencing, which will be accounted for when I work this up at the end of the season, I'm back.

As I described in this post, I was going to put imaginary money on the fastest drivers after the Friday free practises, Saturday practise and qualifying to see which betting strategy would gain me the most money over the season.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday Practice*PriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Rosberg4/1Rosberg3/1Rosberg11/10
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£5Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£4Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£2.10
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£50Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£40Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£21
Season Total £1 bets£1Season Total £1 bets£9.75Season Total £1 bets£1.85
Season Total £10 bets£10Season Total £10 bets£97.50Season Total £10 bets£18.50


Friday, 24 May 2013

Saw Star Trek: Into Darkness (Huge Spoilers Throughout)

Or however it's supposed to be punctuated.  (I don't care that it's unpunctuated officially.  They are wrong.)

Like friend L warned me I would have, I had issues with it.  My issues had issues with it.  It's not actually a good Star Trek movie.  And unfortunately, I'm enough of a Trek fan that I can't look past that to enjoy what my non-Trek friends said was an okay film.

I think in technical terms, my traditional lens flare and cutting issues with JJ Abrams's directing notwithstanding, it's okay.

In artistic terms though, it's all over the place.

I think, above and beyond the Khan problem (discussed below), the major, non-morality based issue (see a different later section) with the film was that it didn't seem to know what it wanted to be.  It was constantly teetering between action-comedy and action-drama and ended up with this really messy dramedy effect.  Dramedy is one of those things that has to be excellent to work at all, otherwise you end up with a really messy soup of thing.  ST: ID was a messy soup.

The other problem is that Wrath of Khan is iconic, and while I am all for iconoclasm, I like it to be intelligent.  And this wasn't.  This was the shitty dubstep remix of Wrath of Khan*.

If you've seen Wrath of Khan, you can guess what bits they're going to include.  And no, giving the bits to different characters is not changing them.  You give no new import, you do not play with them.  You just have them plain with a different voice.  Also, given the stick that Shatner gets for his acting, when William "I am ACT .... ing" Shatner is able to deliver more of an emotional wallop, your script and your set up has issues.  But then again, he was working with better background conditions.  We cared about him and Spock, because we'd known Kirk and Spock for 25 years by that point.  And they loved each other.  The film kept telling not showing that nu-Kirk and nu-Spock loved each other, and I'm sorry, it just wasn't obvious by their actions so the telling didn't work.  From their actions, it's quite clear that McCoy loves Kirk, Uhura loves Spock, and that Chekov adores his Keptin - but the Kirk <3s Spock and Spock <3s Kirk thing not so much.

The same applies for Khan vs Kirk.  We knew Khan.  We knew the wife that died.  We were attached to his character whether we liked or feared him.  We do not know this evil Brit**.  I think Cumberbundle does a fine job, but that's not the point.

When Inception came out and I made a post about why some people didn't like it.  My friend T made a very insightful comment about it being because of absent or misplaced catharsis.  I felt that way about this.  I don't know if it's because I needed the scene where Khan is put on trial or because I wanted the debate about whether someone can be obliged to give up bits of their body for donation or because I wanted the scene where Khan barters his blood for Kirk's life and asks to be frozen in exchange.  Basically, I wanted all the Trek-y scenes Abrams didn't want to include.

The Khan Problem

I'm a Cumberbundle fan.  Of a pre-Sherlock vintage.  I think he does a good job in this.  But there's something fucked about Hollyweird casting a white guy to play an Indian uber-mensch.

And if evil has to be British-accented, it's not like there aren't any Anglo-Indian actors.  Hell, JJ, you worked with Naveen Andrews.

The other problem, nowhere near as serious as the above, is there is no reason for this to be Khan at all.  There is nothing about the story that shouts "yes, Khan must be our villain".  Abrams could have avoided that whole problem by running an Earth based version of this TNG episode - http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/The_Hunted_(episode).  It's not like he's averse to re-using things (to paraphrase Patton - "JJ, you bastard, I've seen the same films as you.").  You get an evil Section 31.  You get a reason for Harrison to be rogue.  You get an excuse for super-soldiery nonsense.  It means you don't end up whitewashing an Indian character who has previously been played by a Latino actor.  It's better all-round.

The moral problem.  Or what the hell have you done to my Starfleet and my Captain.

I get the joke that in Trek, if an Admiral turns up, expect him (or her) to have gone rogue and be plotting to turn Starfleet into a para-military organisation.  It suggests mostly that Admirals need to be better observed.

And while I dislike Section 31 as an idea (sorry, I'm an idealist, Starfleet is supposed to be a paragon with the occasional rogue), it's done well in DS9.  Because it's DS9, and there is time to explore exactly what having that kind of subdivision means for Starfleet.  ST: ID does not have the time.

So I will put up with this.

And I was thrilled by Pike's first scene because someone (anyone) calling nu-Kirk out on his bullshit will always gain my approval.  But, of course, he immediately goes back on that but at least someone tried and I do think that Pike's plan is a good one (also, my own, absolutely against canon head-canon is that Pike was on-board the Kelvin and Kirk sr saved his life and so he can't help it).

Of course then stuff gets blown to hell, and Kirk decides to go on a rampage.  Which I object to for the following reason:

"Also, no, Reboot Kirk, Starfleet should not be about vengeance. See "Day of the Dove", see "Let This Be Your Last Battlefield", see most of Star Trek: The Undiscovered Country, see, oddly enough, chunks of Wrath of Khan. To paraphrase buff mousey-brown haired ubermensch number 2 (sorry, I'm sure the character has a real name but) Kahn and his men could have taken the Reliant anywhere and lived long lives on a planet less terrible than Ceti Alpha V. But Kahn was too blinded by vengeance to see that so they all died horribly."

which is how I felt about it when I saw that scene in the trailer.  It gets no better in the film.  And I find myself hating Admiral Marcus possibly before the film wants me to.  Or possibly the film wants me to be suspicious of him and just to forgive Kirk for being vengeful because his mentor just died.  Which I could live with, if he doesn't go ahead anyway over the protests of his three next highest ranking crewmen (his second in command, his head of medicine and his head of engineering).

Especially when one of the three who is making a moral argument, re: trials important, Starfleet rules important etc, has known Pike for longer and was literally with him as he died.

I acknowledge that Kirk eventually agrees with Spock, but, you know what, he's a ship's captain, he shouldn't still be needing moral learning moments.  Especially when, in the same scene near enough, his teenage prodigy engineer/helmsman, who is 20 at the most, shows a greater understanding of what responsibility is than he does.  I'm wondering if they were aiming for some sort of captain learns from crew learns from captain, all grow together thing.

And I totally get that Kirk is willing to sacrifice himself for the safety of everyone else.  Except he got them into that position.  And everyone else on that ship is willing to make the same sacrifice.  Hell, everyone else we've seen in Starfleet is willing to make the same sacrifice (Captains Robau, Kirk the first, Pike for example.)  Even bigger hell, I'm sure this Khan would do that for his crew, judging from what we see.

To counteract that, Kirk:

Breaks the Prime Directive.  Twice.
Lies in an official report. (edit to add.  I don't blame him for breaking the Prime Directive for the general good.  In fact I applaud it.  It's the lying I object to.)
Shouts at his First Officer for not lying in his report.
Disregards the advice of his Chief Engineer on a matter vital to the well-being of the ship
Disregards the advice of his Chief Medical Officer and his Second In Command on matters vital to the well-being of the Federation
Allows himself to be distracted by a domestic matter during a mission in enemy territory.  (For crying out loud, it's an uncloaked Warbird.  They're not quiet, small or subtle.)
Beats a suspect in custody

I'm not saying Kirk ain't brave.  I'm saying he's not captaincy material.

Other characters are infected by this as well, Spock and Uhura behave in a manner unbecoming officers on an away mission and Bones breaks the Hippocratic Oath (given he didn't know how to safely get the popsicle humans out of their cans and at no point do we see him learn, and suddenly it's all remove a popsicle and replace with Kirk).

And we're just supposed to gloss over all of that.

Scotty, Sulu, Chekov and the unnamed bridge crew seem to be the only functional Starfleet personnel.  Possibly that's because the writers only gave them a minimum of attention.

It also raises a problem.  When nu-Scotty, a man who prefers starships to people, is the moral centre of your movie, you've got issues.

Other stuff I didn't like

Insert obligatory lens flare comment here.  The thing that really got me is that there didn't seem to be much at the start and then the end is lens flare central.  It's like he's doing this to me deliberately.

Killing off Pike.  Because I like him.  I think he's a good restraining influence on Kirk.

Carol Marcus randomly in her underwear.  Because it can't have been because the mission had to be done pronto otherwise she would have got her other team-mate at the same time.  And it can't have been because we have to see underwear because otherwise we would have seen half naked men too.  Then again, this is a film that wants nudity but doesn't want to get the raised rating.  See also caitians who sleep in their bras.

The lack of blood and gore and general unpleasant biological things.  Wrath of Khan, which is also a 12, has blood.  People do not die easy.  There is screaming and fire and Ensign Preston's death remains ookily horrible even all these years later.  Where is that in this film?

The film doesn't seem to want to admit that Khan won.  He got his crew back without losses.  Okay, so they're back to being frozen popsicles but they're not in any danger of being killed any time soon.  Compare this to Starfleet and Earth-Gov who have two major cities carrying a lot of damage, lots of dead admirals, and yet more dead Starfleet officers.  Oh and war with the Klingons brewing if they ever find out about parts of this.

The Things I Liked

The film where Scotty (and Keenser), Sulu, Chekov and unnamed bridge crew are awesome with assists from Uhura, Bones and Carol Marcus.  I liked that film a lot.  Shame it was so short.

Scotty in general.  This is a man who has already been exiled to space Siberia, and he'd still rather resign than risk his ship.

Chekov.  Never have I been so worried about a character through out a film.  It was a combination of the bad luck colour and proximity to the evil bad radiation of death.

Wrath of Uhura > wrath of 20 Klingons.  You know, I think he's right.

The fight scenes.  Seriously, the fight choreographer and his stunt crew deserve many props.  As does whoever was stunting for Cumberbundle.  Kicks of Gods I tell you.

The music.  The music was good.

~~~~

I feel I am being mean.  Because it wasn't terrible in filmic terms, just in Trek terms.  And it wasn't the fault of the actors, who did their best.  But there's a limit to what acting can make up for.

~~~~

* My friend the dubstep fan who liked the film has no issue with this description.

** if nothing else, Hollywood will keep British actors afloat because apparently evil sounds British.

Thursday, 25 April 2013

Bahrain Grand Prix


As I described in this post, I was going to put imaginary money on the fastest drivers after the Friday free practises, Saturday practise and qualifying to see which betting strategy would gain me the most money over the season.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday Practice*PriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Raikkonen3/1

Rosberg7/1
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1

Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10

Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets-£4Season Total £1 bets£5.75Season Total £1 bets-£0.25
Season Total £10 bets-£40Season Total £10 bets£57.50Season Total £10 bets-£2.50


* Due to fencing, I was unable to check this price.  If it had not been for my beautiful assistant @Tiberius_Jolly, I wouldn't have been able to check the qualifying prices either.

Sunday, 14 April 2013

Chinese Grand Prix


As I described in this post, I was going to put imaginary money on the fastest drivers after the Friday free practises, Saturday practise and qualifying to see which betting strategy would gain me the most money over the season.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Massa13/2Alonso3/1*Hamilton2/1
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£4Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£40Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets-£3Season Total £1 bets£5.75Season Total £1 bets£0.75
Season Total £10 bets-£30Season Total £10 bets£57.50Season Total £10 bets£7.50


* Due to the time difference and being at fencing, I was unable to check this price before qualifying.

Monday, 25 March 2013

Malaysian Grand Prix

As I described in this post, I was going to put imaginary money on the fastest drivers after the Friday free practises, Saturday practise and qualifying to see which betting strategy would gain me the most money over the season.

Fastest Friday Practice Price Fastest Saturday Practice Price Fastest Qualifying Price
Raikkonen 9/4Vettel 7/4* Vettel 7/4
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet -£1 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet £2.75 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet £2.75
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet -£10 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet £27.50 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet £27.50
Season Total £1 bets -£2 Season Total £1 bets £1.75 Season Total £1 bets £1.75
Season Total £10 bets -£20 Season Total £10 bets £17.50 Season Total £10 bets £17.50


* Due to the time difference, I was unable to check this price before qualifying.

Tuesday, 19 March 2013

Australian Grand Prix

There is html coding in this post so if anything looks off please tell me and I'll try to fix it.  The accent is sadly on the try.

As I described in this post, I was going to put imaginary money on the fastest drivers after the Friday free practises, Saturday practise and qualifying to see which betting strategy would gain me the most money over the season.

Fastest Friday Practice Price Fastest Saturday Practice Price Fastest Qualifying Price
Vettel 5/4 Grosjean 33/1 Vettel 4/7
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet -£1 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet -£1 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet -£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet -£10 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet -£10 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet -£10


I think I mentioned that betting was a mug's game, didn't I.


One interesting thing to me was that, after qualifying, the bookies (or at least William Hill) thought that Vettel was unbeatable to point that he was odds on to win.  This would have meant that if Vettel had won, I would have received £5.71 + my stake on a £10 bet (or 57 p on a £1 bet), which, even given his pedigree and the car's pedigree is a pretty major statement for the first Grand Prix of the season.  One that turned out to be wrong.  It'll be interesting to see if the following Grand Prix are as difficult to predict.

Wednesday, 27 February 2013

Beating The Bookies At Formula 1 Betting

Being a jockey is the only thing any member of my family has ever been too tall for.  So, while my great-grandfather never got to be jockey*, I was brought up watching horse racing.  So I know sports betting is a mug's game, because the bookies have an in-built advantage because they get to set the odds and aren't ever going to set them in the punter's favour.

So I don't bet, except for the Grand National, which is enough of a lottery to make a mockery of the odds.

When @psychmedia showed that grid position was strongly positively correlated  with final race position (http://blog.ouseful.info/2013/01/30/f1stats-visually-comparing-qualifying-and-grid-positions-with-race-classification/ and following posts) my interested was piqued.  I have to admit my interests were more ... acquisitive than purely scientific.  When I've asked previously to suggest who to bet on to win a race, I've always said "back whoever qualifies on pole**".  The problem, in terms of betting, is that, while you risk less, you also get less of a reward because whoever gets pole position has their odds slashed.

So, I was thinking about how to improve the rewards without risking too much more.

There are some obvious points during a race weekend when you can place a bet based on what has gone before:

1) After Friday practise.  The obvious problem here is that a lot of teams use Friday practise for long runs, to give their reserve driver some track time, and to test new parts.  Who goes fast on Friday might not tell us anything about who goes fast on Sunday.  The obvious plus is that there should be better odds on offer.

2) After Saturday practise.  The cars are more likely to be in race-ish trim and it's not likely that the reserve drivers will be in any of the cars.  The odds are probably going to be shorter at this point.


3) After qualifying.  The cars will definitely be in race trim because of parc fermé rules, and despite possible fuel and tyre issues, the cars are at a point where position is positively correlated with final performance.  Of course, because of this, the odds will be at their shortest here.

At what point can a conscientious, risk-averse punter best place their money?

That's something that's testable.

If I put some hypothetical*** money on the fastest driver at each of these points, by the end of the year (or 20 replicates), I should be able to see if there's any difference.

Now to some more practical details:

I will be using the William Hill website values to give me the odds I would get.  William Hill were chosen because they're also where I put my National bet on.  I will only use simple bets i.e. x to win at a/b with no additional frills****.

I will put the same amount of "money" on for each bet.  I'm trying to decide whether to put on £1 or £10 because with £1 the result will be clearer but with £10 the differences should be more obvious at the end of the season.

Now to list the foreseeable difficulties:

a) Short time windows for putting the bets on, particularly for putting money on at point 2.  I am one of those people who still doesn't have a smart phone so if I am away from a computer (which will happen because of fencing), I might not be able to put on a bet for that time point.  I might require help from friends.

b) The odds are not calculated from 0 each time.  The bookies aren't stupid*****, they will take into account previous form.  So for instance, even if this season had entirely new regulations, Vettel would be at a shorter price going into the Australian GP than his team-mate.  Form through the season is also going to be weighted so if Racer X wins the first 10 grand prix, his odds are going to get shorter so I will win less money betting on him.  You also have local weighting - William Hill is a British bookies so is more likely to have fans that put money on Hamilton to win because he's the local lad.  As bookies don't want to lose money on popular bets, this is likely to cause them to reduce his odds as well.  This may mean the values I get at the end of the season don't actually reflect the money I could have won if I was betting at a bookies based on Mars.

Comments, suggestions, things I've overlooked?

~~~~

*don't worry, he managed to find a different job with horses.

** except Mark Webber who appears to be cursed.

*** hypothetical because I am not made of money.

**** remind me to write something about how a lot of the additional frills are actually bad for the punter's chance of winning.

***** if anyone ever comes to you with a betting scheme that involves the bookies being stupid, it is a bad plan and will not work.  Run for your life.

Friday, 22 February 2013

Apparently my hypothesis was wrong

The hypothesis I was talking about in the last post was that the reason the 2012 Formula 1 season's racing was closer was due to the lack of blown diffusers, more particularly, I thought that this was because the diffusers and the way they worked (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_1_2011#Rule_changes) aided smoother drivers, or hindered the less smooth.

Now I admit this was mostly based on a gut feeling that Mark Webber was a much better driver than his 2011 results showed, and that, with the removal of the blown diffusers, his results would be closer to Sebastian Vettel's.

Unfortunately, I can't actually prove my hunch with numbers, because, Webber's average placing in 2012 in races where both drivers finished, was actually slightly lower than his position the year before, in comparison to Vettel (on average he was 1.9 places behind Vettel rather than 1.8 places). I blame being Grosjean'd a few times. However, at the same time, he's finished ahead of Vettel more times this season (five times as opposed to twice). I therefore decided that I needed more evidence to back up my theory. Or, you know, prove it at all. I needed another team where one driver is general regarded as smoother than the other and the drivers haven't change between 2011 and 2012.

Bring on the McLarens.

Thankfully, the McLarens actually do bear out my theory, even with Hamilton's various misfortunes.  There's a swing from Hamilton being -0.71 of a position behind in 2011 to being 3.3 of a position ahead in 2012.  The other thing screaming at me is that really, McLaren's reliability issues have really hurt them.  Both Red Bulls finished 16 times, both McLarens finished 10 times.

Unfortunately, I'd planned to use the difference between the Ferraris as a baseline but it turns out that Massa is less capable of coping with a terrible car than Alonso is.

There would be spreadsheets to back this up, but, unfortunately, I've not been able to figure out how to post them into Blogger.  Any help is gratefully received.

Friday, 9 November 2012

F1 Opinions Sought

I have been doing some thinking about blown diffusers, and how they interacted with driving styles, in particular, how smooth a driver is.

I'm also aware that having just me judging how smooth a driver is is not a good idea, and so I've set up a survey on Surveymonkey and I'd be grateful for any responses - http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/LX6WZQD

Monday, 27 August 2012

What's In A Name On A Sports Shirt?


This post was inspired by Jed Thian's post about the New Zealand All Blacks looking for a shirt sponsor - http://cargocollective.com/alternativerugbycommentary/Jedi-s-Blog.

Now those of you that don't follow rugby union might think the above post is a little ... over-the-top.  But it's not.  The idea of the All Blacks is something so strong.  You knew that if your team were coming up against the men in black, inside that shirt would be someone who was probably large and undoubtedly good at rugby.  You knew your lot were in for a beating.

And because New Zealand is a small country, and this is the sport that it is world-class in, it's incredibly important to most New Zealanders.  The other sports teams are named with reference to the rugby union side.  The rugby league team and the sevens team both go by the All Blacks, the cricket team are the Black Caps and the hockey team are the Black Sticks.  And so on, because I know there's a few I've missed.

It's not just a shirt, it's an idea.

I accept that financial needs exist, I'm a realist, but I have my doubts about people who are unable to raise the money on the back of the All Blacks brand as it exists.

It's not like I hate all shirt sponsors, I still think Skint Records sponsoring Brighton and Hove Albion was a nice touch, but that was a case of a sponsor that fitted the team they were sponsoring.

On the other hand, there's something about the idea of the unsponsored team.

If we move to a sport I know better, football, there used to be the ideal of Barcelona, the people's team.  Communal ownership and no shirt sponsor.  A couple of seasons ago (starting in 2006) they put UNICEF's name on their shirts, which, while it looked odd because there were words on the front of Barcelona's shirt all of a sudden, wasn't shirt sponsorship, they were doing it for free, in fact, they were even donating money to UNICEF (~ 1.5 million Euros per year).

But looking back, I can't help but wonder if they were just preparing their supporters for the idea of having a shirt sponsor, because suddenly they have one, the Qatar Foundation For Education, Science and Community Development, which, while I get that Qatar are getting into football (roll on 2022 etc), doesn't really link up with Barcelona's identity of being uncompromising outsiders.

Because part of the attraction of Barcelona was that they were the anti-establishment team, the Catalan champions who happened to play in the Spanish League, the team owned by their fans, the team who never had a shirt sponsor.  And they can't say that any more, they'll never be able to say it again.  Even if, after this, they go back to not having a shirt sponsor, they'll have to asterisk any time they say "the team that never had a shirt sponsor" with *except for seasons 2011-2016.  And that's if they go back to not having one.  It takes the shine off the idea of Barcelona, and I have a terrible feeling it'll do the same to the All Blacks.