Friday, 12 September 2025

Formula 1 2025 - Italian Grand Prix

Power units and other disasters 

We're starting to reach the power unit grid penalty part of the season, with various drivers sent to the back of the grid. I am wondering if whatever happened to Hulkenberg's car was also a part reaching its limit. 

There was actual racing 

But it was noticeable that most of the racing occurred before the DRS buttons were turned on. Maybe they'll get rid of them. (The DRS button continues to kill joy.) 

Red Bull 

Verstappen's performance in front adds evidence to the theory that this car was designed with the assumption it would be at the front, and it can't handle not being there. 

Aston Martin 

That muttering sound really is Alonso saying "next year I will have a Newey car so I will put up with this nonsense". 

Ferrari 

Every single race there's a mid-race disagreement between the drivers and the pit wall. Do they not have pre-race meetings?! Do the drivers not listen?! Do the team lie to them?! 

McLaren 

Loving Jenny Gow's simile - "the McLaren mechanics are walking around like expectant fathers." 

Other than Norris apparently being cursed (seriously, why do the pit stop problems always happen to him), I am not sure what else McLaren could have done. It was a problem the team created. Sure, racing is racing, but an unholy mechanical error isn't racing, and a swap seems only fair. 

Verstappen trolling does not help anything or anyone. Ever!

Sunday, 7 September 2025

Formula 1 2025 - Dutch Grand Prix - A delayed accidental live blog experiment

For reasons, I couldn't watch the Grand Prix live, and some how remained unspoiled other than something happened to Norris, something happened to both Ferraris and good things happened for Hadjar. (Same reason is likely to prevent me watching the Italian Grand Prix live.) 

Therefore, you will be getting my delayed thoughts as I finally get to listen to it. Before the start: of course Red Bull are trying something tricksy with tyres. 

Lap 1 - Norris's starts have happened again 

Lap 9 - We have racing and overtaking!!!! Although I am intrigued by BBC radio saying Norris has more racing ability than Piastri. I want to know what evidence they are basing this on. I know they're the British Broadcasting Corporation but still .... 

Lap 12 - I like how Abi Pulling explains why the tyres are affected by the corners 

Lap 13 - Happy 19th Kimi (the younger) 

Lap 17 - ah, high tech F1, where the team principals still stick their arms out to check how heavy the rain is. 

Lap 19 - rain starting, cold temperature, of course Alonso goes onto hards. (I know, that's what he's got to switch to but ...) Why are they all switching to hards in these conditions?!!!! 

Lap 22 - Ah, the great Ferrari driver vs his own strategy team mid-race argument occurs. Truly, my favourite part of the race. (Level of sarcasm, high) 

Lap 23 - oh, how I hate being a Ferrari fan! (The double stack was what I expected McLaren to do from when they asked Norris to get closer. Given the effect of dirty air is that much worse at Zandvoort, it's the only reason you'd want them to get closer). Once again, the pitstop gremlins have hit Norris. How are the safety cars always just at the wrong point for Leclerc? Do Ferrari need to perform some sort of arcane ritual to stop this happening?! 

Lap 25ish - Norris, you're a whinge-pot. Stop whining at your race engineer.

Lap 31 - George, stop being a snitch! 

Lap 33 - Because I knew something terrible will happen to Leclerc (but not what and when) I spent most of him vs Russell racing on lap 33 wincing. 

Lap 34 - obvs. watching via radio, but if that incident was anything like how the radio described it, why did Sainz jnr get the penalty? 

Lap 38 - Again, thanks to Abi Pulling for the explanation of the Alonso outburst. I believe the sound we're not quite hearing is Alonso muttering "next year I have a Newey car" under his breath. 

Roughly lap 47, definitely in the mid-race doldrums - interview with Hamilton where he says that he had no problem with Ferrari's strategy. I mean, bless him for trying to hide that. 

Lap 54 - What do you mean it wasn't even Leclerc's own accident?!!! What is it with this race's Mercedes on Ferrari violence?!! Separately, Norris's rear left exchange goes wrong at the pitstop. And further Ferrari tyre/strategy complaints from the drivers. Which given that he's already out ... what is that supposed to achieve Charles? 

Lap 55 - Unexpected potential points for Sauber! 

Lap 56 - Further evidence for my theory that that second Red Bull is cursed. 

Lap 60 - It never rains but it pours for Antonelli. On the other hand, if you hire rookies, you have to expect and tolerate a certain amount of mistakes. (Looking at you Alpine, looking at you so hard) 

Lap 66 - Engine failure. An engine failure got Norris!!!! When was the last time a McLaren had an engine go boom?! (Updated - oil leak, my apologies to the engine) 

Lap 67 - Interesting stat, Hadjar would be the first French driver to get a podium since Grosjean! 

Lap 72 - Bearman! In the points!! In sixth!!! And Ocon! Double points for Haas!! 

Post race comments: 

Ferrari: Given I was expecting it to have been Ferrari happening to themselves, I was actually alright with there being two accidents. Leclerc was being either really nice about the incident, or Ferrari have finally broken him. 

Hadjar: Is the reason I like Hadjar at least 3/4 because he has equations on his helmet. Photo of the helmet of Isack Hadjar.  The helmet is mostly Red Bull dark blue with the name of one of the sponsors, Schuberth, across the middle.  Underneath the sponsor is a yellow section with equations on.  Some of them are Newton, Einstein and Schrödinger. 

Given how terribly badly parts of Red Bull main treated him after the Australian Grand Prix, they can keep their hands off him now. Definitely until that second car is exorcised.

Saturday, 30 August 2025

Saints Ahoy - Game 28 and the 2024 Season to Date

Two points specifically about game 28. 

The first is about the diagrams. 

You will notice that this is game 28. In a 12 team league, the most games you should get is 22. Even counting Saints's two Challenge Cup games, that would be 24. Super League has 27 games in the regular season. 

How do you get from 22 to 27? 

To fill these "gaps" they have Magic Weekend, the Rivals round and a couple of seemingly random loop fixtures. Mysteriously, this means that we have to play our best/worst rivals more often - Saints got 2 extra games against Wigan in 2024 :( 

In 2024, one of Saints's loop fixtures was versus Castleford, which is why you'll suddenly see Castleford 3 in the figures. I'm putting this explanation in this post because it's the first time one of the teams will be referred to as [team name] 3. 

The second is about an odd tradition Saints have. For the last home game of the season, if a dearly beloved forward is retiring, and we've already won the match, we let them kick a conversion towards the end of the game. I suspected Mata'utia was going, but him getting given the kick to take was when I knew for sure. (Yes - this is often how we find these things out) 

It makes me sad, because I like him. He's an excellent forward, gives his all, and seems to care. I ask for very little and demand only two out of those three. 


Now onto game 28: 

The who was on the pitch when Saints scored figure looks really good. You can see the replacements coming on and off. Line chart showing who was present when Saints scored in game 28.  You can see from it that Clark was the replacement for Burns, and that Bell and Paasi were brought on. 
Who played together when Saints scored in game 28. Matrix of who played together when Saints scored in game 28.  The darkest area, the players most often together, are in the bottom right hand corner.  It contains Whitley, Matautia, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Batchelor, Bennison.  Above them is an orange pair, Bell and Knowles, then Delaney as a stronger orange on his own, above him is a darker orange pair of Welsby and Percival, then a paler section of Paasi, Clark, Burns, then Walmsley and Lees. Knowles's crossing point with several players is much paler than expected given where he is in the diagram. 

Network graph from the same game: Network graph, Bell, Delaney and Knowles are the outliers.  That might explain why some of the crossing points for Knowles are pale in the matrix diagram. 

On to the diagrams for the 2024 season. 

First of all, when do Saints score? Bar chart of when Saints score.  The shape is basically a normal distribution.  The highest point in minute 50 which has seen 7 point-scoring moments.  Minutes 44, 47, 51, 52, 65 and 79 feature 5 point-scoring moments. 
Who scores for Saints? Bar chart of who scores for Saints.  Percival is way in the lead with 60 point-scoring moments.  He is followed by Makinson on 20 (I was not kidding when I said way in the lead), then Bennison.  After Percival the number of point-scoring moments tails off quickly.  In total 25 Saints players have had at least 1 point-scoring moment - not bad from a squad of 36. 

Of the top 3, Percival and Bennison are kickers so should be up there. While Makinson can kick, he's there mostly because of his tries. Oh, we are going to miss him! 

Who is present when Saints score? Bar chart showing which players are present when Saints score.  The top three are Blake, Welsby and Dodd, then there is a distinct drop to Percival, a slow drop in point-scoring moments present for for the next 12 players down to Delaney, then another steep drop to Batchelor, then comes Bennison and a steep drop to Knowles.  Then a slow decline again from Davies down to Burns, and then Royle, Vaughan and Whitby at the bottom. 

What does the matrix diagram of players who play together when Saint score look like after game 28? Matrix diagram of which Saints players are together when Saints score.  The darkest, most-often-together-group are in the bottom right.  It contains Blake, Welsby, Dodd, Percival, Sironen, Hurrell, Lomax, Bell, Clark, Mbye, Delaney, Lees, Matautia and Makinson.  There is a small, paler section of Whitley, Bennison, Batchelor.  Then comes the next palest section of Knowles, Davies, Wingfield, Walmsley, Ritson, Robertson and Stephens.  At the top and leftermost comes the palest group, those least often present together, which contains Royle, Whitby, Vaughan, Burns and Paasi. 

The thing that interests me about the matrix as it stands now is that for each section, the player most often involved with the others (and therefore the darkest line) is at the top left of their section, but the darkest section over all goes at the bottom right and the sections get lighter as you move up and left. 

That pretty much matches the network diagram, but not exactly: The network graph of players who play together when Saints score.  It matches, but not quite, the matrix diagram.  There is a central blob of players then the outliers.  The outliers are Sam Royle, top left, Vaughan, bottom right, Burns, bottom right but in a bit from Vaughan, Walmsley, bottom middle, Wingfield, bottom left.  The players either being pulled into or falling out of the central blob are Bennison (I think being moved in as he plays more), Knowles (ditto), Ritson, Paasi, Robertson, Stephens and Davies. 

The player in the matrix but not in the network graph is Whitby. 

If we swap over to look at when Saints concede - here are the teams that have scored against Saints. Bar chart of who scores against Saints.  Castleford, the opponents in this game, are one of 5 times Saints kept the opposition to just one point-scoring moment.  The other 4 are, Wigan the first time Saints played them, London the first time Saints played them, Leigh the first time Saints played them and Castleford the first time Saints played them.  That Castleford 2 is not on there tells me the second Saints vs Castleford match ended without Castleford scoring. 
There have been 28 games but only 25 teams feature on this chart because Saints kept 3 teams to 0 point-scoring moments. 

When do Saints concede? Bar chart of when Saints concede up to game 28.  Minute 76 has the most point-conceding moments, with 7.  The next highest are minutes 11, 32 and 80 with 5.  There is no obvious pattern to when Saints concede. 

I can't really see a pattern to the times. 

Who is present when Saints concede? Bar chart of who is present when Saints concede.  Blake is present for the most, followed by Lomax, then Welsby and Mbye. 
Who plays together when Saints concede? Matrix of players who played together when Saints concede up to game 28.  The colours are more spread out that in the scoring equivalent.  But there are still three obvious sections.  The darkest, most often together, section (Blake, Lomax, Welsby, Mbye, Lees, Ritson, Makinson, Clark, Whitley, Bell, Matautia, Dodd, Sironen, Percival and Delaney), then the medium section (Robertson, Davies, Vaughan, Paasi, Hurrell, Batchelor, Knowles and Bennison) then the palest, least often together section (Stephens, Walmsley, Wingfield, Royle, Whitby and Burns). 

The equivalent network graph looks like this: Network graph of players who play together when Saints concede up to game 28.  There is a central blob.  Stephens, Paasi and Vaughan are either being pulled into it, or falling out of it.  They are all in the bottom left corner.  Further out are, top left, Whitby, top, Burns and Walmsley, bottom right is Wingfield, and bottom is Royle.

Thursday, 21 August 2025

Sword Fighting Films - The Prisoner of Zenda

This entry is a bit easier to write, because there are no bad versions of the Prisoner of Zenda. 

There is definitely a best version. 

The best version is the black and white 1937 version with Ronald Colman, Douglas Fairbanks jnr, Raymond Massey and David Niven. 

If, like me, your tastes tend sword-fight-wards, it's one of the greatest films you'll ever see. 

Why do I say this? 

1 - The way it adapts the book. It is such a good adaptation. It digs out all the best parts of the book and dispenses with most of the opening section which is … not good. 

2 - The lighting and set design. Everything looks so good. 

3 - The acting. Ronald Colman does such a good job as both Rudolf Rassendyll and Prince Rudolf. As Rassendyll, he is a good man but tempted, ever so tempted. He makes it believable that Rassendyll might turn on the Prince. (He's also good as the Prince who learns to be better. You believe he will become better for this.) 

You believe C. Aubrey Smith and David Niven when their characters say they know Rassendyll is a good man, probably better than the King, but that if he does betray the King, they will be the first people he has to kill. 

Raymond Massey's take on the line "God save the King" when a Rudolf turns up at the coronation is one of the funniest things you will ever hear. He's so marvellous as Black Michael. (He's Raymond Massey, he's always marvellous) 

And then you have Douglas Fairbanks jnr as Prince Rupert of Hentzau. He's just so perfectly charmingly villainous. There's a reason some part of you cheers when he escapes most consequences. When he leans against a doorway early on he is absolute smouldering desire. In a film with perfect casting, he is the most perfect. 

Prince Rupert can easily overwhelm a film but that's where Ronald Colman's ability to convey decency is so vital (in much the same way as James Cagney gets all the glory for Angels with Dirty Faces, but that film wouldn't work if Pat O'Brien couldn't do decency that well). It also has the best swordfight in Hollywood films (some people suggest the long fight in Scaramouche is better. These people are wrong.)

   

The Stewart Granger, James Mason, Robert Douglas and Robert Coote version from 1952 is often derided as being nothing but a colour remake, and it's true that it's not as good, although their Princess Flavia (Deborah Kerr) is stronger. 

There aren't as many other versions of this as there are of several other entries in this series. I'm not sure why. I think it's because it's harder to bend the story to other ways of telling it … although I do like that love makes the good people better and the bad people worse. It's very much set in a time, place and cultural setting. Which makes my choice of something different quite amusing. 

For my something different, I am going with a Doctor Who episode, the Androids of Tara which runs the plot straight into a Doctor Who episode, with added bonus android doubles. It takes that silly premise and runs with it.  

My favourite character is Lamia who is mostly original to the Doctor Who episode (she is the stand in for Antoinette de Mauban but gets more oomph and stuff to do) and I still don't quite forgive it for what they do to her but it does feature Peter Jeffrey as not-Rupert and he is marvellous avuncular evil, which sadly the trailer does not feature enough of. 

It also has the Fourth Doctor pointing out how ridiculous the whole thing is, and swordfighting, where they steal chunks of the Colman fight. 

Given the recent upswing in sword-fighting films, I live in hope we might get a new film for this as well.

Thursday, 14 August 2025

How I make those Gephi diagrams

Written for @shauna@social.coop on Mastodon 

Please don't read any further if you want to maintain the belief I know what I'm doing 

I was original entranced by this post - https://gephi.org/users/quick-start/ 

So I downloaded Gephi and then looked for some data to interrogate. Initially, I wanted to look at how the players at Euro 2012 were interconnected - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/finalised-diagram/ 

It's pretty much been the same process ever since, with some learnings that have been incorporated in the oh my goodness 13 years! 

Information source - I use the Wikipedia squad pages. 

This is why you'll occasionally see notes about "delayed because of" and a warning that the data is taken from Wikipedia so may not be accurate. The club team a player plays for is the one most likely to be wrong, especially for competitions that are between seasons. (The strange places I've ended up at on Wikipedia because of edit wars about which club someone plays for.) 

It is, to an extent, worse for the rugby union ones because players move at the end of the season, not the start of the next. 

Because I do the input (and the removals when teams are out) by hand, I go through the national teams starting with group A and move downwards. This is why, if there is a delay in the teams in group A naming their squads, it causes a huge knock on effect. (The time Italy delayed their squad announcement till ~ 7 pm on the night of the deadline for a game show caused significant cursing because they were the first team in group A and I couldn't start till they did.) 

The larger the event and the bigger the squads obviously, the longer it takes. If you can python (I can't, one day I will learn etc), James Ashford wrote a really nice post on how to do all of this with Python - https://james.ashford.phd/2023/08/25/analysing-the-2023-fifa-womens-world-cup-with-graph-theory/ 

Me, I manually add things into Gephi. Sometimes this means I notice things (like the number of Zambian players playing in the Kazakh Women's League, or that there is a Saudi Women's League - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/07/22/womens-world-cup-2023-group-stage-network-diagrams/

I use the player as the source and the national or club team as the target. I've experimented with using both directed and undirected links, and it doesn't make much of a difference. 

There are other layouts, but I like the way force atlas looks. (Force atlas works okay with this size data set. For significantly larger ones, Yifan Hu is easier) 

I start with the pre-set values, increasing the repulsion strength if the teams crash into each other. Screenshot of Gephi settings.  It starts with Force Atlas, with inertia set at 0.1, repulsion strength at 200, attraction strength at 10, maximum displacement at 10, the auto stabilise function ticket, and autostabilisation strength at 80. Screenshot of the bottom half of the Gephi settings, autostability sensibility is set at 0.2, gravity at 30, attraction distribution is not ticked, nor is adjust by size, and speed is at 1. 

I like to add each player individually, because one of the things I enjoy is seeing the shape and positions change with each addition, but I'm sure making more links at the same time would make it go quicker. 

For the colour and the size of the circles, I keep it really simple and stick to number of degrees. For size, I set minimum at 10 and maximum at 50. I find it's large enough to see the small changes with each player and clear enough when I've made a mistake and not attached a player to the right national team. Or the Wiki page is wrong and hasn't taken off the players that didn't make it to the final squad. Or France have decided to only pick 25 players when they could have picked 26 for who knows what reason. 

I also like it for the rugby union one (where there is unlimited replacements for squad injuries) because it creates a subtle gradation for each injured player. 

Colour is slightly more complicated. I like to try and use either the tournament colours or the colours of the host country flag but it's not possible to change the Gephi pre-sets (or at least not as far as I can find out) so sometimes I have to go with nearest to those. I know to not complain about free software but it's the reason I keep looking to see if there's a way to do something similar in R. 

I keep link width at 1. 

For closest to the centre, I use the zoom function, and the degree function to get the number of players. 

When teams get knocked out, I remove the players manually, hence why I try to keep the teams in order when I add them. Again, you get some fun shape and pattern changes that way.

Friday, 8 August 2025

Formula 1 2025 - Hungarian Grand Prix

Before I start with the wailing of all Ferrari fans, that was a good race. There was overtaking, and defending, and tyre strategy sneak. I approve. Particularly of Fernando Alonso single-handedly causing more frustration than 10 other men. 

Now, onto things I don't approve of, other than Nico Hulkenberg's bad luck and the on-going curse on the second Red Bull car, holy heck, Ferrari, please can you get your act together. Icon of a calendar surrounded by the words "It has been 5 days since we last made a driver cry" 

If it's not producing a car so impossible you've made a 7-time World Champion think he can't drive well, it's causing the other driver to have an outburst of "I told you so" at 210 km per hour. 

It's frustrating as fans, and I can't imagine how frustrating it is for the drivers. 

I hate my team sometimes. 

It's not the losing, it's the way of losing.

Saturday, 2 August 2025

Formula 1 2025 - Belgian Grand Prix

I can see why some people hate the rolling starts but Belgium, even more than many other circuits, is not somewhere where we want to risk people's safety. Andrew Benson's explanation on BBC radio was excellent. 

The rain break also led to some excellent BBC radio waffle. 

I liked FIA's way of avoiding the race finishing with a time out by saying it hadn't started properly.

Tsunoda not having Max's upgrades may suddenly explain his results, and the results of every number 2 driver in the Red Bull team. I was right to suspect the Red Bull garage worked like this:  

I do wonder if Piastri rewatched the video of Verstappen's overtake of him in the sprint race to figure out how to get past Norris, depending of course whether Norris had battery issues or not, and being on the wetter side of the grid.  

As these are supposed to be Ferrari-centric write-ups, I ought to say something about them, especially as one driver got a podium, and the other got driver of the day. It was an excellent defensive performance from Leclerc and an excellent aggressive drive from Hamilton. Could we maybe get them a decent car?!

Wednesday, 30 July 2025

Withdrawals from the 2025 Tour de France

Sadly, this year, I haven't been able to watch any of the Tour. 

However, I did find the time to do the withdrawal stats. 

Looking at the Kaplan Meier chart: Kaplan Meier chart of withdrawals in the 2025 Tour de France.  The line of withdrawals in blue is a very shallow slope, with a drop from 1 to 0.9 over 15 stages.  It then drops to 0.875 by stage 20 and stays there till the end at stage 21. While I was compiling the chart, I did start to wonder whether this was an exceptionally kind year in terms of attrition (if you're not Jasper Philipsen or Filippo Ganna). I will try and borrow a copy of Prism to get the numbers but the comparison itself makes it clear that there was less attrition than normal but not by much. The Kaplan Meier line for the 2025 Tour de France compared to previous races going back to 2020.  2025 (dark blue line) is the one with the fewest withdrawals, finishing with 0.875 still in (87.5%), 2023 (light blue) is the next highest at about 0.85, then 2020 (orange) at about 0.83, then 2024 (green) at 0.80, 2022 (grey) at about 0.78 then 2021 (mid blue) is the lowest at 0.76 

I don't know whether that's because the first "week" this year was 10 days long, because the 14th of July fell on a Monday (very necessary Casablanca clip here - https://youtu.be/HM-E2H1ChJM?si=Sadu7MugvhdwDhXC). Withdrawals by team, the teams are ranked from left to right by how many riders withdrew.  The team with the most withdrawn riders is at the left.  Fuller details in the text below. 

23 teams took part in the race. The withdrawals seem reasonably balanced. 

6 teams had 2 riders withdraw - Soudal QuickStep, Total Energies, Lotto, Alpecin-Deceunnick, Ineos Grenadiers and XDS Astana. 
5 teams had no one withdraw - Arkea - B&B Hotels, Israel Premier Tech, Picnic Post NL, Tudor and Visma - Lease A Bike. 

(I know it's because sponsorship is hard to find, but do the team names need to be that long). 

Because they withdrawals are evenly spread, in the Kaplan Meier diagram split by teams, there's no sudden drops. It looks very like a plait. Kaplan Meier chart divided by teams.  Because a team loses a rider every now and again, it looks like the lines for the different teams are forming a plait. 
Further evidence of it being an unusually non-attritional race, despite them having a stage with a sprint finish up the Ventoux - https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-racing/tour-de-france/highlights-tour-de-france-stage-16-2025, is that no one stage stands out as having more withdrawals. Pie chart of withdrawals by stage, ordered by stage number.  Although stage 14, dark grey, had the most withdrawals with 4, it does not stand out from the stages around it.  Normally one or two stages stand out as having had lots of withdrawals. Looking at withdrawals by type by week: Pie chart showing withdrawals by type in week 1.  67% were mid-stage abandonments (in orange), 33% were did not start the stage withdrawals (blue).  There were no over the time limit withdrawals. Pie chart showing withdrawals by type in week 2.  There is a 50/50 split in types of withdrawals.  50% are mid-stage abandonments (in orange), 50% were did not start the stage withdrawals (blue).  There were no over the time limit withdrawals. Pie chart showing withdrawals by type in week 3.  17% are mid-stage abandonments (in orange), 83% were did not start the stage withdrawals (blue).  There were no over the time limit withdrawals. Ignoring that week 1 was 10 days ... the really interesting things are: 
1 - No over the time limit withdrawals at all 
2 - The pattern is almost symmetrical 

The number of withdrawals by type is pretty even, 48% were mid-stage abandonments, 52% were did not starts. Pie chart of withdrawals by type.   48% are mid-stage abandonments (in orange), 52% were did not start the stage withdrawals (blue). Pie chart of when the abandonment withdrawals occurred, 67% occurred in week 1 (blue), 25% in week 2 (orange), 8% in week 3 (grey). Pie chart of when the did not start withdrawals occurred, 33% occurred in week 1 (blue), 25% in week 2 (orange), 42% in week 3 (grey). Since Did Not Start withdrawals are mostly "help, the damage has caught up with me" withdrawals, that pattern makes sense.

Saturday, 26 July 2025

Euro 2025 - Network Graph for the Final

The figures are obviously very simple now that there are only two teams. Network graph of the two teams in the final.  There are two large red circles representing England and Spain.  Of the smaller paler circles, there is one very large one next to the bottom of the two large red circles.  There are two more smaller, paler circles closer to the top of the two large red circles. 

The same graph, but labelled: Network graph of the two teams in the final, labelled.  There are two large red circles representing England and Spain.  England is the circle at the top of the diagram, Spain the circle at the bottom.  Of the smaller paler circles, there is one very large one next to the bottom of Spain.  It is Barcelona.  There are two more smaller, paler circles closer to England.  They are Arsenal and Manchester City. 
Gotham FC are the club team closest to the middle. 

Barcelona, unsurprisingly, have the most players left, with 10. The teams with the next most players remaining are Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City with 6. 

Manchester City, Arsenal and Gotham FC are guaranteed to have a player on the winning side. 

The community view gives less information when we're down to two teams so I haven't shared that. 

It's a final to look forward to.

Thursday, 24 July 2025

Some equally scattershot thoughts about Fantastic Four, the new one

(Mild spoilers for Thunderbolts and from that to Fantastic Four)

I have more skin in this game than I did for Superman (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2025/05/17/superman-the-new-one-some-scattergun-thoughts-about-comics-history-and-culture/). The coterie of comics fans I was in at high school were very much Marvel (and later 2000AD).

Fantastic Four was C's comic of choice - mine was X-Men (I am filled with trepidation about what Marvel will do to them because while the Fox films haven't been perfect, several of them have come pretty damn near).

I'm intrigued by the retro-futurism of the trailer for the new Fantastic Four, and amused by sudden unexpected Mark Gattiss appearing as I-can't-believe-it's-not Ed Sullivan.

There's a sinister uncurrent in the trailer, even before Galactus and the Silver Surfer turn up, that would have made it clear that it wasn't going end well, even before the bad guys do arrive. Also, Ben Grimm is somewhere where he is happy and beloved and they seem to be determined he will never get that for long *.

Given what we get in the Thunderbolts end credits teaser, I presume the end of Fantastic Four has them slingshotted over into our universe, which at least has precedent in the comics.

Part of me wants it to be "them slingshotted following abject failure to beat Galactus." but I don't think Marvel will go there, no one likes to see their heroes lose. Although they did go there for the Avengers: Infinity War cliffhanger.

What I think is more likely is that Reed Richards is going to have to make a choice, save the world and potentially doom the family, and luckily they end up over in MCU-main-verse.

But that leads to the question of why would they give that away in another film? Or am I just putting too much thought into it?

* Ben Grimm is my favourite in ways that words cannot explain.

Monday, 21 July 2025

Euro 2025 - Semifinals Network Graphs

As suggested (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2025/07/14/euro-2025-quarterfinal-network-diagrams/), the sheer number of Spanish and Italian players playing for Barcelona and Italy respectively did distort the graph. 

It's also distorting the semifinal graphs which are much narrower and elongated than usual. Non-labelled version of the network graph.  The large red circles stand for each national team.  One of them is separated at the top, with very few connections to the other three.  Two more are in the middle and then the fourth team is at the bottom.  The shape is an elongated diamond with curved edges.  The team at the top has a pale red circle at its top left, a club team.  There is another pale red circle at the top right of the leftmost one of the two national teams in the middle.  There is one link from it to the national team at the top.  Similarly, the national team at the bottom has one of the larger pale red circles coming off it, bottom middle. The same graph as before, but labelled.   The large red circles stand for each national team.  One of them, Italy, is separated at the top, with very few connections to the other three.  Two more are in the middle (Germany left and England right) and then the fourth team, Spain, is at the bottom.  The shape is an elongated diamond with curved edges.  The team at the top, Italy, has a pale red circle at its top left, a club team.  It is Juventus.  There is another pale red circle at the top right of Germany, it is Bayern Munich.  There is one link from it to the national team at the top, as one Italian player plays for Bayern.  Similarly, Spain have a large pale red circles coming off it, bottom middle.  It is Barcelona. There is a pleasing simplicity to the community view, with each country being its own community. Non-labelled version of the community view network graph.  The larger circles stand for each national team.  One of them, in mid-blue, is separated at the top, with very few connections to the other three.  Two more are in the middle (green and pink) and then the fourth team is at the bottom and orange.  The shape is an elongated diamond with curved edges.  The team at the top has a smaller circle at its top left, a club team.  There is another smaller circle at the top right of the leftmost one of the two national teams in the middle.  There is one link from it to the national team at the top.  Similarly, the national team at the bottom has one of the larger circles coming off it, bottom middle. The same graph as before, but labelled.   The large circles stand for each national team.  One of them, Italy, is separated at the top, with very few connections to the other three and is in blue.  Italy being blue is a complete and happy coincidence.  Two more are in the middle (Germany, left, are green and England, right, are pink) and then the fourth team, Spain, is at the bottom and in orange.  The shape is an elongated diamond with curved edges.  Italy have a smaller circle at their top left, a club team.  It is Juventus.  There is another smaller circle at the top right of the leftmost of Germany, it is Bayern Munich.  There is one link from it to Italy, as one Italian player plays for Bayern.  Similarly, Spain have a smaller circle coming off them, bottom middle.  It is Barcelona. Unsurprisingly, the largest of the paler red circles reflects the club teams with the most representatives left, Barcelona with 10, Bayern Munich with 9 and Juventus with 8. 

Germany are the national team closest to the centre, because of Italy pulling them up. For the same reason, Bayern Munich are the club team closest to the centre. 

I have seen all of the semi-finalists except England play (and I am banned from watching them lest I be an ill omen).  I am guessing that Spain will beat Germany but that German team have a certain admirable determination about them.

Wednesday, 16 July 2025

Film Review - Ad Astra

This film was so bad that I have made a new graphic for it. Circle with a line through.  The text around it says Do Not Watch, Film Is Terrible. 
This is going to be reserved for the real clunkers. I have 61 film reviews to write up, including this one and only 3 of them deserve this figure, and one of those is an edge case. 

Ad Astra was terrible. 

Bad science, bad plot, bad logic. 

Although I will say it had good set design. 

What annoyed me about it so much? 

It was the laziness. 

I'm a bad sci-fi fan. I do not expect diamond-level hardness in my sci-fi films. I am happy to accept internally cohesive over scientifically accurate. But, if you're going to have one of your characters be a deep space explorer charting new planets out in the Kuiper belt don't have three pictures of "new space objects" be the same picture of Europa turned 90 degrees and coloured in differently. 

Particularly not if you say things like "what I’m trying to do is the most realistic depiction of space travel that’s been put in a movie and to basically say, ‘Space is awfully hostile to us.’ It’s kind of a Heart of Darkness story about traveling to the outer edge of our solar system." during the press tour. (https://collider.com/james-gray-brad-pitt-ad-astra-filming/

You really don't get to say that if you have scenes that only work if there is no convection of heat from rocket engines. 

It's not just Europa, and basic physics, it's every little detail of the film. For instance, the faked geography of the opening shot. "Whilst watching Ad Astra, instantly recognised two lakes as Brad Pitt was looking down to Earth. Qinghai Lake and Lake Urmia. Obviously they are no where close to each other, one is in China, the other in Iran." (quoted with permission from here - https://x.com/x4rius/status/1248252953074360320). 

In the director's defence, he does achieve the whole "Heart of Darkness" theme he was aiming for, although his is more the isolation of space drives you mad rather than colonialism will destroy us all.

The vibe I got was more Odysseus in the "everyone he meets dies" way but I think we have to accept my brain was warped at an early age. 

The problem is that it was sold as 'interesting sci-fi philosophical film', but it is in fact, "man-pain the movie: this time we're in space". Which would be hard to sit through anyway, but the lead character is deliberately emotionless as his major characteristic and he's the only character with any major screen time ... this film is dull and unengaging as well as having all those technical flaws. 

Gah!  The whole thing is a mess and is a waste of two hours of your life.

Monday, 14 July 2025

Euro 2025 - Quarterfinal network diagrams

The group stage diagrams and predictions based on them can be found here - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2025/06/29/euro-2025-group-stage-network-diagrams/

How did the group stage predictions go? 

From group A, I predicted Norway and Switzerland would qualify for the quarterfinals, and I was right, even if it involved extra time goals in the decider. 

Group B, I predicted Spain and AN other, which I am aware is a bit of a "the sky is blue" sort of prediction. 

Group C, I predicted Germany and Sweden 

Group D, I predicted Netherlands and one of England and France, which was oh so wrong. 

Out of 8, I am willing to call that about equivalent to 5/8. 

With that in mind, here are the quarterfinal network diagrams 

Unlabelled: Network diagram of the 8 remaining teams.  The remaining national teams are the large red circles.  Four line up across the middle horizontally.  Two are above this line in the top left, in a 45 degree diagonal line from each other.  The remaining two are below that line at a much more acute angle to each other.  The other circles are the club teams.  It is noticeable that some club teams have lots of representatives left because their circles are relatively large and orange. Labelled: Same diagram as previous but with the teams labelled.  The four teams across the middle horizontally are, from left to right, Germany, Sweden, Norway and France.  The two above the horizontal line are, going from nearest to middle to furthest, are Switzerland and Italy.  The two below the line, going nearest to furthest are England and Spain.  The club teams with noticeably large circles are Juventus, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Chelsea and Barcelona. 

In the communities view, each nation is its own separate colour. The unlabelled view, this time coloured in by community.  The four nations along the middle are olive yellow, mid-green, bright blue and a darker more purply blue, respectively.  Above the horizontal are a team in brown and a team in bright green.  Below the horizontal, the two teams are orange and pink. Labelled version of the community diagram.  The four teams across the middle horizontally are, from left to right, Germany (olive yellow), Sweden (mid-green), Norway (bright blue) and France (darker blue).  The two above the horizontal line are, going from nearest to middle to furthest, are Switzerland (brown) and Italy (bright blue).  The two below the line, going nearest to furthest are England (pink) and Spain (orange).  The club teams with noticeably large circles are Juventus (bright green), Bayern Munich (olive yellow), Arsenal (pink), Chelsea (pink) and Barcelona (orange). Sweden are the national team closest to the centre (just, vs. Norway). 

Either Lyon or Bayern Munich are the club team closest to the centre. 

Barcelona are the team with the most representatives left in with 14, then comes Bayern Munich and Juventus with 13 then Chelsea with 12. 

Predictions for the quarterfinals: 

These are quite difficult because Italy and Spain are pulled out by how many of their players play for Juventus and Barcelona respectively, while Bayern Munich, and the players that play for them, are pulling together Sweden and Germany, and Arsenal and Chelsea are holding together England, Sweden and Norway. 

Sweden vs England - Diagram says Sweden 

Norway vs Italy - Diagram says Norway, plus every single women's football pundit keeps bewailing how often Italy somehow manage to screw up. On the other hand, Norway trip over their own feet also. 

France vs Germany - Diagram says Germany just. Football fan says "ooooh". 

Spain vs Switzerland - Remember how I said Barcelona pulled Spain out of the diagram. This really reflects that. Switzerland are far closer to the centre. On the other hand, there is no way I can see Switzerland beating this Spanish team.

Wednesday, 9 July 2025

Formula 1 2025 - British Grand Prix

Hulkenbooooooooomiest 

Finally. 

Etc 

It turns out that there are circumstances where I will cheer against a Ferrari. Because finishing 3rd and where the heck ever Leclerc finished is not actually all that much better than 4th and wherever (no really, why is there a Ferrari finishing outside the points?!!!), while Hülkenberg finally getting a podium ... that's something special. 

I'm not saying that it was a long time coming but Clare Williams was his press officer when he driving for Williams. (She was adorably happy for him.) 

I loved how loud the Sauber team were for him, and that the the teams with a champagne budget used some of it to pass champagne to Sauber so they would have some. 

Second most heart-warming moment had to be Mrs. Norris hugging her son. I am not Team Lando (L is. L has been since he started. He is presently impossible and hoping to reach new heights of impossible if Lando wins the title this year.) but I am entirely happy for him. 

BBC radio were wise and knowledgeable and got Damon Hill in. He's so lovely!!!! 

Channel 4 gave me Mika Hakinnen terrifying David Coulthard in a sportscar - racers never change - and Coulthard getting to drive not just *a* vintage Alfa Romeo but the Alfa Romeo that won the first ever British Grand Prix.

I am frequently mean about Coulthard but the sheer joy he radiated. 

Why am I going on about everything but the racing? Because it was a bit of a damp squib (chapeau to Gasly for that overtake though). The rain and associated chaos robbed us viewers of racing. There wasn't even any fun chaos moments, except possibly Lance Stroll's "that's not even a strategy" somehow getting him more points than Alonso, and Alonso's epic radio whinge. 

But overall, I do not care that there wasn't much racing because Picture of Nico Hulkenberg (tall, skinny, white, blond) on the podium at the British Grand Prix.  He is wearing a white baseball cap and his black and green Kick Sauber racing overalls.  He is holding a bottle of champagne which is spraying foam.  He has a very relieved smile.

Sunday, 6 July 2025

Film Review - Time Bandits

D took me to the Mockingbird Cinema (https://mockingbirdcinema.com/MockingbirdCinema.dll/Home) because, as an indie cinema, they reshow older films sometimes.

I had seen Time Bandits before, but never in the right order. As you can imagine, it has a very different effect in the right order - it works better, despite it very much being Terry Gilliam doing the child hero's journey.

And ending it very Gilliamly. (Which I define as an ending that is sort of, if not unhappy, then lacking in comfort. I think that might be the hallmark of his films, they provide no direct comforting message.)

But at least things look interesting. (I will forgive a lot for interesting)

Writing this has made me realise how difficult I find it to describe Terry Gilliam's films and my responses to them. They're very much experiences rather than a solid thing that can be described, or certainly not by me, who, I admit, comes from the science and sense end of things rather than humanities and sensibilities. I am happier with things that are and aren't, rather than -ish, but Gilliam's films are full of -ish and questions, but I like that about them. They're full of that feeling, without trying to explain everything, as opposed to some films that aim for that and then try to explain, and that never works for me. (Spoiling my review in advance, I think that's why I did not jive with 'Everything, Everywhere, All At Once'.)

Friday, 4 July 2025

Euro 2025 Network Diagrams - An Update

Every time, I forget that the teams have up until their first game to make injury swaps. And because I try to get the figures ready in time for the first match that means I need to make an update now. 

The unlucky players this time are: 
Adelina Engman (Finland) withdrawing because of a thigh injury (https://yle.fi/a/7-10080591). Her replacement is Anni Hartikainen. 

Luana Bühler (Switzerland) might win unluckiest, because she had to withdraw from a home tournament with a knee injury (https://www.football.ch/sfv/nationalteams/a-team-frauen/UWNL/news/frauen-nationalteam-luana-buehler-faellt-fuer-das-heim-turnier-aus.aspx). Her replacement is Laia Ballesté. 

Chiara Beccari (Italy) is out with a thigh strain (https://total-italianfootball.com/womens-euro-2025-italy-beccari-out-injury-bergamaschi-in/). Her replacement is another Juventus player, Valentina Bergamaschi. 

Martyna Brodzik (Poland) is out ill (https://pzpn.pl/federacja/aktualnosci/2025-06-22/zmiana-w-liscie-zawodniczek-powolanych-na-uefa-euro-2025). She has been replaced by MaÅ‚gorzata Mesjasz. Because Mesjasz plays for AC Milan, this caused a fair amount of movement in the diagram. 

The major changes to the diagram is that because of Poland moving up slightly, Germany and Norway have been split. The move has also pulled Italy in so they are directly above Denmark. Network graph of the connections between the teams at Euro 2025.  It looks a lot like the map of France.  From the top left corner, along the top edge which is a descending diagonal line, are Belgium, Iceland and Italy.  Denmark are directly below Italy.  Sweden are directly below them.  England are down and to the right from them.  Diagonally down left from England are France, then Spain.  Portugal are in a straight line left from Spain.  Poland are above Portugal.  Finland are above them, then it is Wales, who are down and left from Belgium.  In the centre, slightly left from Sweden, are Switzerland, Germany, Norway and Netherlands. 

In the community view, Switzerland and Germany are still together in one community but Sweden and England are now separate communities. Same diagram as before, but this time coloured in by community view.  From the top left corner, along the top edge which is a descending diagonal line, are Belgium (dark green), Iceland (brown) and Italy (red pink).  Denmark (mid-green) are directly below Italy.  Sweden (mint green) are directly below them.  England (fake apple green) are down and to the right from them.  Diagonally down left from England are France (red brown), then Spain (olive yellow).  Portugal (salmon pink) are in a straight line left from Spain.  Poland (orange) are above Portugal.  Finland (electric blue) are above them, then it is Wales (shock pink), who are down and left from Belgium.  In the centre, slightly left from Sweden, are Switzerland, Germany (both mid-blue), Norway (lilac) and Netherlands (RAF blue). 

The changes bring no clarity to any predictions.

Wednesday, 2 July 2025

Formula 1 2025 - Austrian Grand Prix

The most important thing first - there was actual racing! Up and down the grid. Actual racing!!!

That was a good race.

I feel so sorry for Williams. I have no idea what's causing everything to suddenly go wrong for them, but it's depressing. And slightly alarming when a car's brakes set on fire. I would suggest they borrow the exorcist Red Bull ought to hire for that second car. At this point, the reason for the poor performance of that second car being a curse makes as much sense as anything else, because both Tsunoda's performance when he was in the RB and Lawson's now he's in it, suggest that it isn't the driver (see also Albon in the Williams when it is not misbehaving).

On the happier side, well done Sauber! Hulkenbooooom happened again - 20th to 9th. Of course, it fits with the rest of his career that an 11 place rise up the grid doesn't get him driver of the day. But I can't be annoyed, because Bortoleto got his first ever points and F1 fans are as sentimental as the next group.

Ferrari!!! Have pace!!!

Repeat after me for the umpteenth time - I will not be optimistic about Ferrari's performance based on a single race.
I will not be optimistic about Ferrari's performance based on a single race.

(Now if only they could sort out the Hamilton and Leclerc to strategy team communication, because hilarious though it is to hear the drivers having mid-race strategy arguments, I don't think it's efficient.)

In the commentary, I managed to listen to this on BBC radio and then watch the Channel 4 highlights. Channel 4, occasionally home to Mark Webber in the comms box are mysteriously totally in Piastri's corner. Like serious, I'm wondering if they got a memo saying they ought not to make it obvious that as a British broadcaster they were going to cheer for the Brit and have gone too far the other way.

BBC meanwhile are trying to get rid of Tsunoda which makes me both sad and angry. You won't like me when I'm angry BBC comms team.

One thing I will give Channel 4 credit for - bonus Eric Bana who was being lovely and fannishly enthusiastic.

I do wish they'd put up the interview they had with Jonathan Wheatley afterwards. He's so lovely.

Sunday, 29 June 2025

Euro 2025 Network Diagrams

Now in a slightly different format. 

The Making Of: 
UEFA saying teams had to announce their teams by the 25th of June meant that I have had plenty of time to make these diagrams. That the women's teams are limited to only 23 players also sped this along. 

Interestingly, while coverage and interest in women's football had increased hugely, the Wikipedia pages are still updated much more slowly than the equivalent men's pages. I was making the diagrams and spotted that Italy had a much bigger and darker red circle than the other teams, and when I checked, it was because the Wikipedia page hadn't been updated following the cut from 27 players to 23. 

The Diagrams: Network graph.  There are 16 red circles surrounded by a number of smaller orange circle and even more smaller cream circles.  Two of the red circles overlap in the middle of the diagram. Same diagram as before but labelled.  It is best to imagine it as a very wiggly rectangle.  The national teams are the big red circles.  11 of the teams are sort of around the edge of the rectangle.  They are, clockwise from top left, along the top line - Wales, Belgium, Iceland and Italy.  Down the right hand side are Denmark, Sweden, England and France. Along the bottom (right to left) Spain and Portugal.  Along the left side are Poland and Finland.  About the middle both up and down and left to right are Switzerland, Netherlands, Norway and Germany.  The red circles for Norway and Germany overlap.  The clubs with more players present at the Euros are the orange circles.  The largest of these are Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Juventus. 

The community view is very pretty this year. There are 14 communities covering the 16 teams. The same diagram coloured in by community.  Although there are 16 teams, there are only 14 communities The same chart, but labelled.  It is best to imagine it as a very wiggly rectangle.  The national teams are the big red circles.  11 of the teams are sort of around the edge of the rectangle.  They are, clockwise from top left, along the top line - Wales (bubblegum blue), Belgium (orange), Iceland (plum purple) and Italy (olive yellow).  Down the right hand side are Denmark (a sort of sharp green), Sweden and England (pink) and France (forest green). Along the bottom (right to left) Spain (sky blue) and Portugal (dark green).  Along the left side are Poland (very pale brown) and Finland (red pink).  About the middle both up and down and left to right are Switzerland and Germany (both bright green), Norway (brown) and Netherlands (purple).  The red circles for Norway and Germany overlap.  The clubs with more players present at the Euros are the orange circles.  The largest of these are Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Juventus. 
Some Observations Based on the Diagrams: 

Every country has at least one player playing for their home league, except Wales. 

Every country has at least one player playing abroad - for Italy it is literally only the one (Arianna Caruso for Bayern Munich). 

It is not clear if Germany or Switzerland is the country closest to the centre. 

It is clear that Bayern Munich are the club team closest to the centre. 

The club teams with the most players present are Barcelona with 17, Bayern Munich with 16, then Juventus and Chelsea with 14. 

For most national teams, the players are spread over several teams. The exceptions to this are Italy, Spain, Portugal and Germany, although with Germany it's less obvious when looking at the diagram because a number of non-German players also play for them. England are more weakly like that, with a lot of players from Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City. 

The number of links between Italy and Denmark is due to the large number of Danish players playing in Italy, which might be related to similar patterns seen in the men's game. Danish acquaintance of mine used to complain players on had to be signed by Italian clubs to walk into the national team. 

Having done this for women's tournaments before (see the 2022 version of this here - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2022/07/08/womens-euro-2022-network-diagrams-group-stage/), I'm slightly saddened that we seem to be losing those teams where the main team is the women's team; there's no players for Turbine Potsdam for instance, and only a few from London Lionesses, Paris FC and Madrid CFF. I don't want the increased interest in women's football to cause it to lose its history. (I still don't forgive the English Women's Super League for screwing over Doncaster Belles.) 

Some of the old divisions still remain; Liverpool not giving a flying curse about it's women's team is reflected by there only being two Liverpool players present, both for Wales, compared to eight for Everton. Everton have always supported their women's team - when I was young, the only chance women in my area had of playing football properly was in their women's team. 

One thing that might be affecting the clustering is the number of players who play for US teams. A country with a lot of club teams represented but not present itself doesn't usually happen, unless one of the big guns doesn't qualify (looking at you, so often, Italy). 

I will be keeping an eye on Poland, particularly Emilia Szymczak who is 19 and plays for Barcelona B. If you're good enough to be picked up by Barcelona at that age ... 

In terms of the community view, the national teams that group together are Sweden and England (because of Arsenal and Chelsea) and Switzerland and Germany (because of Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg). Switzerland and Germany being joined is really interesting given Germany's circle overlaps with Norway's, and yet those two aren't linked. 

Predictions: L likes me to try to predict the outcome of the games from this, and there is some correlation between closeness to centre and connectedness and doing better in tournaments. 

However, previous experience (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/08/03/womens-world-cup-2023-last-16-network-diagrams/) has shown that it doesn't work as well for women's football. 

Because half the teams will be gone after the group stage, it's a lot harder to predict, and it makes the games so much more tense. Limiting the Euros to 16 teams also means some of those groups are stacked - like group D - England, France, Netherlands and Wales. So that's the present World Cup holders, the winners of Euro 2022, the winners of Euro 2017 and the lowest ranked team in the competition. 

Bon chance, Wales. 

(Actually, the diagram doesn't have them as separated from the other teams as I would have expected.) 

Spain are the team that really confuses the diagram. I would expect them to be a lot more central, given I expect them to do well. It could be the number of players that also play for clubs with Portuguese players that is pulling them out there or potentially a sign that they may not do as well as expected. 

Running purely off the diagram, the teams most closely clustered are Germany, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, England, France, and then one of Denmark and Spain. You'll notice that's 9 teams and only 8 go through. 

If we take Switzerland and Norway from group A, that leaves 3 more groups where it is unclear. 

For group B, it is unclear because only Spain are in that central core, and they're barely in it. 

For group C, as Germany and Sweden are closer to the centre than Denmark, I will predict that these are the teams that will get through. 

For group D, D for death, that logic can't work because England and France are a similar distance from the centre of the cluster. My best prediction - that group is going to be tight.

Tuesday, 24 June 2025

Saints Ahoy - Game 27 and the 2024 Season to Date

Game 27 was a dismal loss to Warrington. 

Dismal because Warrington, and even more dismal because the only points that Saints scored was from a penalty. It seemed to be that sort of game (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/09/07/saints-beaten-by-warrington-at-the-halliwell-jones-stadium/), with lots of their points also coming from penalties and 3 yellow cards - 2 for them, 1 for us. 

Yup, the team with fewer cards lost.

The "who is present together when Saints concede in game 27" matrix indicates quite clearly who the "missing" player was, enveloping Matty Lees in one group even though his line is paler than the players around him. 

Yes, I wonder who got the yellow card! Matrix chart of who is present together when Saints conceded in game 27.  Of interest is the second darkest group (they are in orange), containing Welsby, Paasi, Lees and Delaney.  The line for Lees is a paler orange because he was not present with that group every time Saints conceded.  On this occasion, it is a mark of shame because he had been yellow carded, which Warrington exploited to score twice. Looking at the season to date: 

When do Saints score? Bar chart showing when Saints score.  The highest number of point-scoring moments is 7 in minute 50.  The next highest if 5 point-scoring moments, which has happened in minutes 47, 51, 52 and 65. 
Bennison is now equal to Welsby in the "who scores for Saints?" bar chart. Game 27 was when Welsby made his return from injury. Bar chart showing who scores for Saints up to game 27.  Percival is still way in the lead, as befits the kicker.  He is followed by Makinson, Lomax and now Welsby and Bennison, who are on the same number of point-scoring moments. Who is present when Saints score, up to game 27? Bar chart of who is present when Saints score.  Blake is still way in the lead, then comes Welsby (some way behind) and then Dodd, a little bit behind that. 

To my mind, the interesting thing here is you've got the three present the most (Blake, Welsby and Dodd), followed by one slowly declining cluster (Mbye, Hurrell, Sironen, Percival, Bell, Lomax, Clark, Makinson, Lees, Whitley, Mata'utia and Delaney) then a drop to the bottom cluster who also slowly reduce in number present as you go down the list (Batchelor, Bennison, Knowles, Davies, Ritson, Stephens, Robertson, Walmsley, Wingfield, Paasi, Burns, Royle, Vaughan and Whitby). 

In the matrix of who plays together most often when Saints score, now updated to game 27, the top left border of Whitley, Bennison and Batchelor, first seen in game 26 is still there. Matrix of which players are together most often when Saints score.  There are now 4 clear sections - the darkest, most often together section, in the bottom right corner (Blake, Welsby, Dodd, Sironen, Hurrell, Percival, Clark, Lomax, Mbye, Bell, Delaney, Lees, Matautia and Makinson).  The next two groups are much paler, the first is pale yellow with the occasional beige square, and contains Davies, Knowles, Wingfield, Walmsley, Ritson, Robertson and Stephens.  Then there is the palest section, all pale yellow, which has Burns, Whitby, Vaughan, Royle and Paasi.  Then there is the odd, darker (pale brown, orange and yellow) border along the top and left.  It contains Whitley, Bennison and Batchelor. 

The network graph looks like this:Network graph, there is a central blob.  Sticking immediately out from that blob, clockwise starting from 12 are Walmsley, Paasi at 2.30, Ritson at 3.30, Robertson at 4, Stephens at 5.30, Davies at 5.45 and Wingfield at 9.  Further out is Royle out in the bottom left, Burns all the way out centre right and then Vaughan far far away in the top right. When do Saints concede? Bar chart showing when Saints concede.  The minute with the most point-conceding moments is minute 76 with 7.  The next highest are minutes 11, 32 and 80 with 5. 

The "who is present when Saints concede" chart has a very different shape to the "who is present when Saints score" bar chart. While that has three distinct sections, this chart has Blake and Lomax in the lead (because they have played a lot of minutes), then a slowly degrading curve covering most of the other players, then a small section of the infrequently present players at the bottom. Bar chart of who is present when Saints concede.  Blake is far in the lead, followed, some way behind by Lomax, then Mbye in third.  Mbye is at the start of that sloping curve I mentioned above.  The small section of infrequently present players are Stephens, Walmsley, Burns, Whitby, Royle and Wingfield. 

The concede matrix looks very similar to last time, except fuzzier once more. It's interesting that as there's more data, the boundaries between the groups get weaker, then they suddenly pop back into strong colours, then weaken again (and so on). Matrix chart of players together when Saints concede.  The darkest area, the players most often together when Saints concede, is in the bottom right hand corner and includes Blake, Lomax, Clark, Whitley, Mbye, Lees, Ritson, Makinson, Welsby, Bell, Matautia, Dodd, Sironen, Percival and Delaney.  The next most commonly together section is much paler, with occasional swirls of darker colour.  It includes Davies, Stephens, Vaughan, Paasi, Robertson, Hurrell, Batchelor, Knowles and Bennison.  The top and left-most is the palest and least often together.  It includes Walmsley, Wingfield, Royle, Whitby and Burns. Another interesting this is that, although the shape is similar, some of the players have moved section e.g. Ritson has moved from the middle group to the darkest group, in just one game. The network graph is the same shape but has shifted about 15 degrees clockwise. Last time I suggested that players were either being sucked into the centre or moving out. It was being sucked in because they're all much closer now. Network diagram showing which players are present together when Saints concede.  Standing out from the central blob, clockwise starting at 10 are Wingfield, Burns at 3, Whitby at 5, Stephens at 6 (but he is almost within the central blob) and Royle at 8. Despite the piles of data, there are still changes, and the players brought in as other players were injured are now clearly part of the main group due to number of matches played. It's been interesting to watch that exchange of players coming in and out of the matchday squad. 

There may be a slight delay as I work on the Women's Euro 2025 network graphs. I am already seeing some interesting patterns.