Sunday, 11 May 2025

An update on "Haaland or Bug?"

As I'd updated the Shearer+Kane+Salah comparison, it was easy to update the equivalent comparison that includes Erling Haaland. 

In Haaland or Bug, I did say it would be interesting to see what an extra year's data would do to Haaland's curves. And it has done interesting things. 

Part of the problem is his 2023-2024 season would have been spectacular for anyone else, but was only "on standard" for him, so where his curves have been sky-rocketing previously, they've now plateaued, and on the 'extrapolated' curves, that means they're some interesting downward parabola shapes. 

First the Percentage of Games Played 

At the point where everyone had reached 23 years old: Line graph of percentage of games played per season by Shearer, Kane, Salah and Haaland up to the age of 23. The lines for Shearer (blue) and Kane (orange) are straight lines. The Shearer line starts at 0 at 16, and goes up to 72-73% at 23. The Kane line at 18 at 15, and goes up to 85% at 23. The Salah line (grey) is a downward turning parabola that starts at 0 just before 16, and drops to 75% at 23. The high point is 80% between 21 and 22. The Haaland curve starts at 54% at 15, and plateaus off after reaching 80% between 21 and 22. 

In this chart, Kane and Shearer have similarly angled increases (although Shearer's percentage is lower), while Salah has a dipping parabola (he missed a lot of games at the age of 22 which is still affecting his up to 23 curve, although his percentage of games played went up to higher than it was before).  

Haaland's curve is now plateauing, but that's because he has played a high percentage of games for several years, which always leads to concerns (Link to "Much Too Much, Much Too Young" by the Specials 

In the "extrapolated" curves, all the players have downward turning parabolas. Haaland's is the worst because of the limited data, but Salah's has also gone down because of his 2023-2024 injuries (may he be kept from further hamstring problems). 

And Kane and Shearer are now meeting at the same point. This is a line graph of percentage of games played per season, extrapolated to 35 for Shearer, Kane, Salah and Haaland. The line for Shearer is blue, and starts about 19% at 17, and finishes at 78% at 35 years of age. The line for Kane (orange) finishes at the same point but starts 35% at 17. The curve for Salah (grey) starts at the same point as the Kane line, but ends at about 50% at the age of 35. The curve for Haaland (yellow) is also a downward curving parabola, shifted due to lack of data. It starts at 54% at 15 and drops to 10% at 35, with a high point of 80% at 22. Next we have goals per game It is still weird curves ahoy, because Kane and Shearer's are still upward-facing banana-shaped. Line charts of goals per game up to the age of 23 for Shearer, Kane, Salah and Haaland. The Shearer line (blue) is an upward facing parabola, starting at 1.1 at 15 and finishing at 0.9 at 23, with a low point of 1.8 between 19 and 20. The Kane curve (orange) has a similar shape, starting at 1 at 15, and finishing at 0.9 at 23. His low point is 0.36 also between 19 and 20. The Haaland curve (yellow) is a downward facing parabola, starting at less than 0 at 15 (I blame the way EXCEL extrapolates the data) and finishing at 0.9 at 23. His high point is 1.1 between 20 and 21. The Salah curve (grey) is also a downward facing parabola starting at -0.25 at 15 and finishing at 0.3 at 23, with a high point of 0.32 just after 21. Haaland's downward facing parabola really is just due to other seasons being ridiculous and this one just being very good. I also find it amusing that three of the lines - Shearer's, Kane's and Haaland's - meet at more or less the same point. I think it's because they've always been out and out strikers, while Salah used to be a winger. 

With the extrapolated chart, it's another serious case of "insufficient data for Haaland" Line graph showing goals per game extrapolated from the present data to 35 for Shearer, Kane, Salah and Haaland. The Shearer line (blue) is curve, from 0.22 at age 17 to 0.35 at age 25, with a high of about 0.61 about 26/27. The Salah line (grey) is also a curve, from about 0.7 at age 17 to 0.48 at age 35, with a high point of 0.6 at 29. The Kane line (orange) is straight because of his truly excellent goal per game at age 30. It starts at 0.4 at 17, and ends at 0.85 at 35. The Haaland curve (yellow) is a ridiculously sharp downward facing parabola, starting at 0 at 15 and ending at 0 at 26, with a high point of 1.1 between 20 and 21. 

The curve is only so steep because there is so little data. Kane's is skyrocketing because of his excellent 2023-2024 season. 

And finally, goals per possible game: 

Up to 23 is more banana-shapes, with Salah so much lower because that was when he was definitely still a winger. This is a line graph of percentage of goals per game up to the age of 23 for Shearer, Kane, Salah and Haaland. The Shearer curve (blue) is curving upwards. It starts at 0.32 at 15, and finished at 0.65 at 23. The low point is almost 0 between 18 and 19. The curve for Kane (orange) is similarly shaped, it starts at 0.4 at 4, then finishes at 0.67 at 23, with a low point at 0.2 at 18. The curve for Haaland (yellow) is a downward curving parabola, starting at 0 at 15, and ending at 0.7 at 23, with a high point of 0.8 at 23. The curve for Salah (grey) is a steadily increasing line from less than 0 at 15 (I blame the way EXCEL does curves) to 0.27 at 23. Again, the same three lines - Shearer's, Kane's and Haaland's - meet at more or less the same point. The extrapolated curves look odd for Haaland, because of lack of data again (and relative dropping off of goals per game), and Kane's skyrocket of a 2023-2024 season Line chart of goals per possible game extrapolated up to the age of 35 for Shearer, Kane, Salah and Haaland. The Shearer line (blue) is a curve, starting at 0 at 17, and ending at 0.3 at 35, with a high point of 0.5 at 28. The Salah line (grey) is also a curve, starting at 0 at 17 as well, and ending at 0.4 at 35, with a high point of 0.5 at 29. The Kane line (orange) is almost a straight line, it starts at 0.19 at 17 and ending at 0.78 at 35. The Haaland curve (yellow) is a ridiculously steep downward facing parabola. It starts at 0 at 15 and ends at 0 at 27 with a high point of 0.81 at 21. Manchester City, and therefore Haaland's relatively poor 2024-2025 is going to do things to my graphs again next time, isn't it?   (I do think cause and effect are that way round. I think the way Guardiola has City set up, they miss Rhodri a lot more than they miss Haaland when he's not there.)
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