Wednesday 21 August 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 10 and the season to date

This is why Saints are so frustrating, they can lose to Warrington (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-9-challenge-cup-quarterfinal/) then a week later they nil Hull FC. Now, admittedly, Hull FC have been wretched this year (that noise you can hear is L bemoaning that Danny Houghton is too good for them), but still. 

Match report here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-hull-fc-2024-04-19/?swcfpc=1

There were enough point-scoring moments that there are game-specific diagrams that are worth sharing. Bar chart showing who scored for Saints in this game.  Of the 17 man squad, 10 of them scored. 

10 out of the 17 man squad scored points, with Percival and Bennison on kicking duties and Waqa Blake scoring two tries. There is a large purple most often together section, and then Delaney and Percival as the next most often together section. Because this only covers one game, it's a very clear picture of who plays together. It's even clearer on the network graph. Lomax is the central player, surrounded by a central core of, clockwise from quarter to twelve, Blake, Batchelor, Hurrell, Mbye, Welsby, Makinson, Whitley, Bennison.  Around the outside are Sironen at about 3, Bell at about 5, Delaney and Percival at the bottom, and Lees and Knowles sticking out at the left hand side. The players who stick out are the ones who were subbed at any point. That Saints are still wrapping Percival up in cotton wool at minute 50, a pattern they've maintained through out. Not all the players who played but the ones who have played the most games.  Even 10 games in, Percival still does not play after minute 50. 

I'm presuming they're trying to make sure he stays in one piece as he's signed up till 2026 - https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/st-helens-stalwart-mark-percival-opens-up-on-why-hes-committed-his-long-term-future-to-club 

There is starting to be a shape to when Saints score. Bar chart - minute 51 and 52 have had 3 point-scoring moments, as have minutes 60 and 70.  I also find the cluster of minutes between 34-40 that have 2 point-scoring moments interesting. While it's nice to see consistent storing at minutes 51, 52, 60 and 70, I am also very happy with the cluster between minutes 34-40 where Saints have already had two point-scoring moments.

Same graph but coloured in by scorer -    Same graph but coloured in by scorer.  Percival who both acts as kicker and scores his own tries is the purple colour that dominates the graph. That's Purple for Percival, dominating the graph even if he does only play 50 out of 80 minutes. 

Things have happened to the season-long matrix graph, I think because there were many point-scoring moments but several of the more fringe players were playing. Because the matrix diagram is mirrored along the top-left to bottom right diagonal axis, it looks like the figure is now nine equally sized squares, each 7 by 7 smaller squares big.  The bottom right square contains the most dark colours indicating the players who play together most often when Saints score. Welsby, Lomax and Whitley are still the darkest purple because they're still together most often. 

Hurrell, Percival, Clark and Knowles play together less often than you'd expect. 
Same for Blake, Mata'utia and Knowles. 
Makinson and Knowles 
and Whitley and Knowles 

I think the Knowles thing is because he's been injured but when he's fit he plays lots of minutes. 

Sironen plays more often than you'd expect with Welsby and Lomax 
Clark plays more often than you'd expect with Sironen and Dodd. 
Mbye plays more often than you'd expect with Welsby, Lomax, Whitley, Hurrell and Bennison, but I think that's all from this game because he played all of it instead of Daryl Clark and there were so many point-scoring moments (19 out of a total of 71 for the season). 

As the season developed, I was a little disappointed in how the matrix didn't seem to develop into an interesting pattern, but it really has developed after this. The network graph has also developed with the lines in the centre becoming really thick. Network graph.  There is a large central blob, with Walmsley and Ben Davies hanging off the top and the side respectively. The network diagram has become a large central blob with players hanging off if they play less often. 

I know Wingfield, Knowles and Walmsley have been injured, I think Davies was too, and Mbye is the spare hooker after Darryl Clark.

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