Sunday 25 August 2024

Formula 1 - Chinese Grand Prix 2024

I continue to disapprove of sprint races.  I also disapprove of Alonso thwacking into poor little Carlos!

On the other hand, the race could have gone worse (even if I think this is the race when it started to become clear that McLaren's development team were better than Ferrari's, and that the upgrades weren't) so you know.

Of course, the most important part of the Chinese Grand Prix was that Zhou Guanyu finally got a home grand prix.

https://www.formula1.com/en/video/2024-chinese-grand-prix-zhou-savours-his-moment-in-front-of-the-fans-after-first-home-race.1796936345385336983 

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/zhou-proud-and-honoured-to-race-in-china-but-bottas-day-ends-in.4ullkGVXiW2EWSUsHBumMm 

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/apr/19/zhou-guanyu-chinese-grand-prix-f1

I'm not crying, you're crying etc.

Wednesday 21 August 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 10 and the season to date

This is why Saints are so frustrating, they can lose to Warrington (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-9-challenge-cup-quarterfinal/) then a week later they nil Hull FC. Now, admittedly, Hull FC have been wretched this year (that noise you can hear is L bemoaning that Danny Houghton is too good for them), but still. 

Match report here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-hull-fc-2024-04-19/?swcfpc=1

There were enough point-scoring moments that there are game-specific diagrams that are worth sharing. Bar chart showing who scored for Saints in this game.  Of the 17 man squad, 10 of them scored. 

10 out of the 17 man squad scored points, with Percival and Bennison on kicking duties and Waqa Blake scoring two tries. There is a large purple most often together section, and then Delaney and Percival as the next most often together section. Because this only covers one game, it's a very clear picture of who plays together. It's even clearer on the network graph. Lomax is the central player, surrounded by a central core of, clockwise from quarter to twelve, Blake, Batchelor, Hurrell, Mbye, Welsby, Makinson, Whitley, Bennison.  Around the outside are Sironen at about 3, Bell at about 5, Delaney and Percival at the bottom, and Lees and Knowles sticking out at the left hand side. The players who stick out are the ones who were subbed at any point. That Saints are still wrapping Percival up in cotton wool at minute 50, a pattern they've maintained through out. Not all the players who played but the ones who have played the most games.  Even 10 games in, Percival still does not play after minute 50. 

I'm presuming they're trying to make sure he stays in one piece as he's signed up till 2026 - https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/st-helens-stalwart-mark-percival-opens-up-on-why-hes-committed-his-long-term-future-to-club 

There is starting to be a shape to when Saints score. Bar chart - minute 51 and 52 have had 3 point-scoring moments, as have minutes 60 and 70.  I also find the cluster of minutes between 34-40 that have 2 point-scoring moments interesting. While it's nice to see consistent storing at minutes 51, 52, 60 and 70, I am also very happy with the cluster between minutes 34-40 where Saints have already had two point-scoring moments.

Same graph but coloured in by scorer -    Same graph but coloured in by scorer.  Percival who both acts as kicker and scores his own tries is the purple colour that dominates the graph. That's Purple for Percival, dominating the graph even if he does only play 50 out of 80 minutes. 

Things have happened to the season-long matrix graph, I think because there were many point-scoring moments but several of the more fringe players were playing. Because the matrix diagram is mirrored along the top-left to bottom right diagonal axis, it looks like the figure is now nine equally sized squares, each 7 by 7 smaller squares big.  The bottom right square contains the most dark colours indicating the players who play together most often when Saints score. Welsby, Lomax and Whitley are still the darkest purple because they're still together most often. 

Hurrell, Percival, Clark and Knowles play together less often than you'd expect. 
Same for Blake, Mata'utia and Knowles. 
Makinson and Knowles 
and Whitley and Knowles 

I think the Knowles thing is because he's been injured but when he's fit he plays lots of minutes. 

Sironen plays more often than you'd expect with Welsby and Lomax 
Clark plays more often than you'd expect with Sironen and Dodd. 
Mbye plays more often than you'd expect with Welsby, Lomax, Whitley, Hurrell and Bennison, but I think that's all from this game because he played all of it instead of Daryl Clark and there were so many point-scoring moments (19 out of a total of 71 for the season). 

As the season developed, I was a little disappointed in how the matrix didn't seem to develop into an interesting pattern, but it really has developed after this. The network graph has also developed with the lines in the centre becoming really thick. Network graph.  There is a large central blob, with Walmsley and Ben Davies hanging off the top and the side respectively. The network diagram has become a large central blob with players hanging off if they play less often. 

I know Wingfield, Knowles and Walmsley have been injured, I think Davies was too, and Mbye is the spare hooker after Darryl Clark.

Tuesday 13 August 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 9 (Challenge Cup Quarterfinal)

Because I ended up a bit behind making these, I knew that adding the Challenge Cup to the visualisations wouldn't make a huge difference, because Saints only played two games, and lost to Warrington in the quarterfinal. 

Losing to Warrington in the Challenge Cup is less humiliating than losing to them in the league, but that doesn't make it okay. (Match reports here (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/04/14/saints-beaten-in-challenge-cup-quarter-finals/) or here (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/apr/14/warringtons-second-half-onslaught-knocks-st-helens-out-of-challenge-cup). Possibly L needs to be nicer about George Williams.) 

Saints conceded enough that there was actually a network graph for players present when they concede. Dodd, Matautia and Makinson are in the middle, with (clockwise from 12) Whitley, Batchelor, Hurrell, Blake, Delaney, Lomax, Welsby, Walmsley and Bennison. Which suggests only bad things about the number of times Warrington scored.

Who scores for Saints? (up to game 9)Percival is still in the lead, with 11 scoring moments.  Then Lomax with 9, and Makinson with 6. Percival has still scored the most, followed by Lomax and Makinson.

Who is present when Saints score?Welsby and Lomax are the only ever presents, Whitley has now missed one.  Davies, Batchelor and Mbye have been present for the least. Whitley has now missed one point-scoring moment but he's still in the deepest purple section of the who plays together when Saints score matrix. Whitley is still in the purple section with Lomax and Welsby.  The next most commonly together are Dodd, Makinson and Clark in red. After the Whitley, Lomax and Welsby group, the next most commonly together are Dodd, Makinson and Clark in red. 
The ones that are less frequently together than you might expect are:
Sironen and Whitley 
Bennison, Delaney and Walmsley (Bennison is together with Welsby and Lomax more often than expected) 
Clark is together less often than expected with Bell 
Wingfield and Percival 
Whitley, Delaney and Batchelor Hurrell and Clark (although Hurrell's together with Delaney more than you might expect) 
Blake and Mata'utia (Blake is together more than you'd expect with Bell) 

Mata'utia is where the figure really splits between the frequently play together and less so. I think Percival is in that group because of his suspension. 

The "who is present when Saints score" network graph now looks spectacularly weird.  Those perpendicular lines really stand out against the other diagonal lines.   The thing that makes this graph look weird is it now looks like a square is being drawn, with a straight line between Walmsley and Batchelor (from left corner to right corner), and another straight line between Batchelor and Mbye.  The straight lines stand out from the diagonals that make up the rest of diagram. Lomax, Welsby and Makinson are the central core. The surrounding players are Clark, Dodd, Mata'utia, Hurrell, Blake, Bennison, Whitley and Sironen. Percival forms the link between that central group and the outer group (again I think that's because of his suspension) who are, clockwise from Percival, Walmsley, Lees, Batchelor, Mbye, Wingfield, Bell, Delaney and Knowles. 

In the Challenge Cup quarterfinal, Warrington had the most point-scoring moments of any team who have played against Saints so far. Warrington in the Challenge Cup had the most point-scoring moments against Saints with 11 

As to when Saints concede there is starting to be a pattern of conceding the last 20 minutes of the game. Coloured-in bar chart. Ignore the colours for the moment.  There are three point-scoring moments in the first 20 minutes, 9 in the next 20, 5 in minute 41-60 then 14 in the last 20 minutes. 
I'm presuming this is as the team gets tired out. 

Who is present when Saints concede? Welsby and Lomax have also been present for all the times Saints have conceded.  Bennison, in third place, is a lot higher in this diagram than in the when Saints score diagram.  Mbye, Percival and Lees are present for the least concessions. Combining the info from the last graph and this, I think Percival is so low down because when he plays, Saints tend to take him off around minute 50, so before the high concession time begins. 

The matrix diagram shows that Whitley is present for fewer point-conceding moments than you'd expect. The central purple of the most frequently together has Welsby, Lomax, Makinson, Bennison and Dodd, Whitley is within the central portion but a paler red. There are now 17 players in the network graph for when Saints concede. Welsby and Bennison are the central players, surrounded by a core of (clockwise from 12) Dodd, Whitley, Lomax, Hurrell, Makinson, Delaney and Blake.  They are surrounded by Clark, Sironen, Bell, Knowles, Matautia, Walmsley and Batchelor.  Wingfield sticks out at the top, sort of North by North East. 
I think Wingfield is sticking out up there because he's been out injured so long.

Wednesday 7 August 2024

Formula 1 2024 - Japanese Grand Prix

It's probably not a good sign that I can't remember anything about the Japanese Grand Prix, even though it is admittedly four months on.  My race notes suggest it was bitty and not exciting as well.

Have read up on it using other people's sources, it was one of the ones where McLaren's race strategy was worse than Ferrari's and Leclerc had to rescue a less than good qualifying performance.  It may even have been the start of when this year's car started to show it had no go in comparison to the others.  Or Ferrari's upgrades weren't as good as the other teams's.  Either way, not good!