2023 Tour de France Withdrawals - Week 1

The withdrawals so far in the 2023 Tour de France have come in three groups: 

1 - The crash that lead to Mas and Carapaz's withdrawals - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/66076741 

2 - The crash that wiped out Guarnieri and Luis Leon Sanchez - https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/tour-de-france-crashes-blight-motor-circuit-finale-to-stage-4/ 

3 - Stage 8's two crashes that lead to Cavendish's broken collarbone and Cras's withdrawal - https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cras-blames-spectator-for-tour-de-france-crash-which-saw-simon-yates-mikel-landa-lose-time/ 

Quinn Simmons is the first "general wear and tear" withdrawal this year (https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/quinn-simmons-abandons-the-tour-de-france-ahead-of-stage-9/). I expect them to start mounting.

Looking at withdrawals by stage:      

All the withdrawals have been mid-stage abandonments or did not start the next day due to previous crashes, there have been no riders who have missed time limit cut-offs. This is despite the first week containing an unexpectedly large amount of climbing and difficult stages compared to usual (https://twitter.com/eltiodeldato/status/1674387305618894848 and https://twitter.com/eltiodeldato/status/1674713858722676736 demonstrate this well). 

Because there's relatively few withdrawals, the Kaplan Meier chart is pretty flat, although the Kaplan Meier split by teams makes it quite clear that the Tour has happened to Astana.  

Talking about Astana, one thing this week has highlighted is the paucity of cycling knowledge in the people writing about road cycling in the big media sources. 

The UK press coverage, in non-specialist outlets, entirely understandably, was all about Mark Cavendish. 

Cue, when Leon Sanchez had to withdraw, many inches of print about how this was terrible for Cav's sprint train. 

... 

... 

Yeah, that Luis Leon Sanchez. 

As a vital component of a sprint train. 

... 

Dear general sports journalists who cover cycling once a year, either stick to the facts or if you want to add opinion, throw some money at the excellent cycling journalists available and get them to write you something. Because really, sometimes, what you write, makes you sound like morons. 

Now, I know a sensible team, if they had a sprinter who could break one of "the records" but needed a sprint train, would put together a sprint train, and dedicate the team to that. But it's Astana, and who *ever* accused Astana of being sensible*. Of course they've frankensteined a team together to try to go for sprint victories and have a GC contender, plus Lutsenko for climbing stage wins. 

I can't help but feel I am a jinx on Cavendish because news of the crash happened just as I opened my phone to check how the Tour was doing on Saturday. 

L is putting it down to a Belgian conspiracy, but he's had more than one twelve-hour shift this week, so we will forgive him melodramatic conspiracy theories. 

I love that Vinokourov has immediately gone with "if Cavendish wants to stay, we will have him" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/66147017). Because he knows how that feels and because he has style**. 

All this, and I've not said anything about Pogacar vs Vingegaard, which is bubbling along nicely. 

In the grand tradition of "you can't win a Grand Tour in the first week, but you can lose it", neither of them have lost it, and it could get very interesting in the next two weeks. 

* Said with love, affection and exasperation. Astana have been my team since they were created, because wither Vinokourov goes, so do I. 

** He lies, cheats and connives, but he does it with style.