Tuesday, 28 April 2015

On Mayweather vs Pacquiao

I was going to write a whole long post about the fight, but I find that Ricky Hatton has said everything I was going to say, in a much better way, and with greater authority, here.

The only thing I might add is that one of the things that counts against Mayweather in the public perception is that he always (or almost always) plays the villain in the build up to his fights.  Which makes sense from his point of view, because it keeps people's interest.  Because he's stuck with an interesting problem, in that he's enough better than the rest of his division that the fights aren't all that close, and he's a counter-attacking fighter, and people don't seem to get the effort and precision involved in being a good counter-attacker, so that's not a big box office draw either.  If he didn't play the villain, it'd be very similar to the problem there is in the heavyweight division, where we know who is going to win (a Klitschko) and how they're going to win so people aren't all that interested, so they don't watch, so the purse isn't that big.  And if my job involves people trying to hit me in the head, I am going to try to get paid as much as I can.

So Mayweather plays the villain and people pay to watch people hit him, and, of course, he's good enough that they don't.  Because Mayweather has an exceptional defence, one that I wish to show several UK boxers as something to be emulated.  He does other things that I think help him, such as staying in reasonably close to fight shape (unlike people who shall remain un-named but are obvious), so there's less stress on his body overall, which may be why Old Father Time has bitten him less than other people.

Basically unless he turns up too old on the 2nd of May (which can happen and in the [paraphrased] words of Bernard Hopkins, you never know you're too old until you turn up too old), Mayweather is winning this one.

I am still, however, utterly hoping and praying that Pacquiao will win.

Wednesday, 22 April 2015

Bahrain Grand Prix

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Nico Rosberg5/2Lewis Hamilton8/13Lewis Hamilton4/9
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.62Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.44
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£16.15Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£14.44
Season Total £1 bets-£1.47Season Total £1 bets£3.20Season Total £1 bets£3.02
Season Total £10 bets-£14.67Season Total £10 bets£29.95Season Total £10 bets£28.24


Wednesday, 15 April 2015

Chinese Grand Prix

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton8/15Lewis Hamilton2/9Lewis Hamilton2/9
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.53Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.22Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.22
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£15.33Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£12.22Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£12.22
Season Total £1 bets-£0.47Season Total £1 bets£1.58Season Total £1 bets£1.58
Season Total £10 bets-£4.67Season Total £10 bets£13.80Season Total £10 bets£13.80


Tuesday, 7 April 2015

The Great Driver Debate

First, the background: I am a Sebastian Vettel fan.  I have been since the Toro Rosso days.  So I get a bit miffed when people say he's only got 4 world titles because of the car.  This is not to say that the Red Bulls weren't amazing, because they were, but that because you pretty much have to have a good car to win the driver's title.  Merely good racers have won the title, but it's rare that average (in comparison to the rest of the field) cars do.

I may get a little irritated by the Hamilton fans on Twitter that insist that he's all talent, while Vettel is all car.  I think Hamilton is a fabulous talent, but the Mercedes last year was head and shoulders above any of the other cars, and I seemed to recall that that McLaren he won in was a little bit good too.

Gut feeling (and a certain pro-Vettel bias) is probably not good enough to decide this, so I thought, what would be a good way of seeing if both Vettel and Hamilton's winning cars were better than everything else in the field.

One quick and dirty way I thought of was looking at the performance of the other car from that team.  If the car is better than everything else in the field, you'd expect the team-mate to come second.

I've compiled a list of the driver's world title winners from the past 10 years, and of who came second to them.

YearWinnerSecond
2004Michael Schumacher (Ferrari)Rubens Barrichello (Ferrari)
2005Fernando Alonso (Renault)Kimi Raikkonen (McLaren)
2006Fernando Alonso (Renault)Michael Schumacher (Ferrari)
2007Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2008Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)Felipe Massa (Ferrari)
2009Jenson Button (Brawn)Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2010Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
2011Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)Jenson Button (McLaren)
2012Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
2013Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
2014Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)

In that list, there were only times where a constructor finished first and second, Ferrari in 2004 and Mercedes in 2014.

Now the interesting thing for me is that in none of Vettel's championship winning years did his team-mate finish second to him.  Which suggests he might have some talent beyond being in the right car at the right time.

Obviously, this is very rough and ready, and misses things like the curse that afflicted Mark Webber.

Another way to look at it might be to look at the positions of the winning driver and his team-mate directly.

YearWinnerTeam-mate
2004Michael Schumacher (Ferrari)2nd (Rubens Barrichello)
2005Fernando Alonso (Renault)5th (Giancarlo Fisichella)
2006Fernando Alonso (Renault)4th (Giancarlo Fisichella)
2007Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)4th (Felipe Massa)
2008Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)7th (Heikki Kovalainen)
2009Jenson Button (Brawn)3rd (Rubens Barrichello)
2010Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)3rd (Mark Webber)
2011Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)3rd (Mark Webber)
2012Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)6th (Mark Webber)
2013Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)3rd (Mark Webber)
2014Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)2nd (Nico Rosberg)

On average, the team-mate of the winner finished in 3.81th place.  Which we shall round to 4th ;)  Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel have all had team-mates that finished lower than that.  On average, Alonso and Hamilton's team-mates finished in 4.5th place, while Vettel's team-mate finished in 3.75th place.  So not as far behind, but there's not much of a difference.

Obviously, we're never going to get a proper head-to-head of Alonso vs Vettel or Vettel vs Hamilton, and the one season where Hamilton and Alonso were in the same car, they scored the same number of points.  To me all of this suggests that they are pretty much of a muchness in terms of driving skill.  Which I grant is not a great conclusion to end with, but it is what it is.

Monday, 30 March 2015

Malaysian Grand Prix

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Lewis Hamilton4/7Nico Rosberg4/1Lewis Hamilton1/3
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10Amount won/lost on a £10 bet-£10
Season Total £1 bets-£2Season Total £1 bets£0.36Season Total £1 bets£0.36
Season Total £10 bets-£20Season Total £10 bets£3.64Season Total £10 bets£3.64


I'd feel a lot worse about losing my imaginary money, but there was a Ferrari win and therefore all is right with the world.

Sunday, 15 March 2015

Australian Grand Prix

The new season is upon us. It is a great and joyous time. (Fingers crossed for Ferrari.) That being said, it's time to do my yearly thing of betting odds, in my continuing attempts to reach statistical significance.

Fastest Friday PracticePriceFastest Saturday PracticePriceFastest QualifyingPrice
Nico Rosberg5/2Lewis Hamilton4/11Lewis Hamilton4/11
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet-£1Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.36Amount won/lost on a £1 bet£1.36
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet
-£10
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£13.64Amount won/lost on a £10 bet£13.64
Season Total £1 bets-£1Season Total £1 bets£1.36Season Total £1 bets£1.36
Season Total £10 bets-£10Season Total £10 bets£13.64Season Total £10 bets£13.64

The values are mangled because I couldn't get to the William Hill website in time between Saturday practice and qualifying.

As for the race, if Mercedes keep that up, they'll have won by the middle of the season, and the people they advertise on their cars are going to ask them to slow down because they're getting no coverage.

Friday, 13 March 2015

'Twas the night before the first qualifying session of the season

For an F1 fan, the week before the first grand prix of the season is probably the most wonderful time of the year.  It's the last time we can pretend to ourselves that all the cars and drivers might stand half a chance at actually winning something and that it won't just be a two horse race featuring whichever manufacturer has the best car (it's going to be Mercedes this season).

You can still, at this point, lie to yourself and say that if the team you like have done poorly in testing, they have been sandbagging, and if they've been doing well, it's because the car is good, not because they've been running light on fuel.

As a Ferrari fan, I am trying not to be optimistic.  I have been here too often.  Because the car looks good, and looks to be performing reasonably well and ... if the Mercedes hit each other often enough Ferrari might, might, might just win a few races and then and then ... and you'll note I said trying not to be optimistic, not succeeding.

Friday, 30 January 2015

Book Locations

If I may direct you to a thing that @nwbrux (on Twitter) is doing, where he's using LibraryThing and GoodReads to try to find the most famous book from each European country - http://nwhyte.livejournal.com/tag/famous%20books%20by%20geography. (Inspired by this mentalfloss thing doing the same for each US state -http://mentalfloss.com/article/56377/most-famous-book-set-each-state).

Other than being very happy that Kidnapped got a mention for Scotland, and hoping that The Three Musketeers gets a mention for France, I have suddenly become aware that the other thing I think of when you say French book isn't a novel per se (Asterix for the win) and neither is the thing I think of when you say Dutch book (the Diary of Anne Frank).

Anyway, I did a quick blast through the books that I have reviewed on LibraryThing (because it's common knowledge function is useful when you can't quite remember where on of the Aubrey and Maturin books is set), and I have found that I really need to read a more varied selection of books.



And that Brazilian one is pushing it a bit because they literally only just touch there in HMS Surprise, but the whole "you debauched my sloth" thing is too magnificent to ignore.

It's even worse if I look at the UK-based books:


(Yes, all of the Welsh ones are Torchwood books.) Add to that that most of those are set in London or the Home Counties, it definitely means I need to read a more varied set of books.

Saturday, 3 January 2015

There have been complaints about my top 10 films of 2014 list, expected complaints, from parties that shall remain nameless but obvious, who are partisans for Guardians of the Galaxy.

First of all, it's a top 10 favourite, not a top 10 best list so it will be wonked by my taste, or lack thereof.

Secondly, some explanation of how I rank films.

a) Does this film achieve what it set out to do?  Or the Ebert rule.  Or, you can't watch a horror film and then a musical and complain about the lack of songs in the horror and the lack of gore in the musical (unless it's supposed to be a musical horror).

b) Technical merit.  Which I grade on a curve, which we shall call Twig's curve for the person who explained it best.  Basically, I expect the explosions in a film that cost £150 million to be better than the ones in a film that cost £150.

Or to use a proper example, the fact that in 'Tooth and Claw', Doctor Who produced a better werewolf than Warner Brothers managed to make for Harry Potter, means that Prisoner of Azkaban gets a lower tech. merit score.

Soundtracks so loud I can't hear the actors goes in here, along with lighting so poor I can't see anything.  It's that sort of category.

Then there's the even more subjective criteria.

c) Intellectual satisfaction.  Is the premise internally consistent, are the characters?  Is there an annoying deus ex machina?  (It's possible to do deus ex machina well without me claiming that a film has cheated.  It normally involves a film charming me or being clever enough that I don't care.)

Then there's the most subjective.

d) Does it affect me?

Obviously this is going to vary wildly from person to person, because part of what you get out is the influences you brought in.

I am always going to like a film that makes me respond more than one that didn't.

A perfect example is Inception, and the spinning top at the end.  I saw it at the Leicester Odeon on an Orange Wednesday and the entire, sold-out, audience groaned at the end, making a noise that can only be described as 'ngh'.  There was a woman a few rows in front of me who was trying to knock the top over by waving at the screen.  That film got us all and good.

So, some justification for the positions (some slight spoilers follow):

Saturday, 13 December 2014

Top 10 Films 2014

This only counts films I've seen at the cinema and were released in 2014.  Because otherwise M would win hands down. (14/12/12 Edit - For various reasons, I have chosen to reverse the positions of Edge of Tomorrow and Charlie Countryman.  More details later.)

1 - Grand Budapest Hotel
2 - Nightcrawler
3 - The Zero Theorem
4 - X-Men: Days of Future Past
5 - Edge of Tomorrow
6 - The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman
7 - Hercules
8 - Guardians of the Galaxy
9 - How To Train Your Dragon 2
10 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler and the Zero Theorem are miles above the others.  I am not convinced that Hercules is actually any good but it might as well have been written for me.  Edge of Tomorrow would be higher up if it hadn't been for the ending.

I still haven't seen Interstellar, and am unlikely to before the 31st of December so if it's any good it'll go on next year's list.