Monday, 10 February 2025

Saints Ahoy! - Game 20 and the season to date

Every league has a team like Warrington. Their purpose is to look like they could win the league, if everything lines up for them, and then things suddenly just don't line up for them. And the just don't continues for a long period of time. 

In Warrington's case, the "and then something went wrong" has lasted since 1955 (they have won the Cup since then, but never the league). Even their own fans sing a song about it. "It's always our year, it's always our year, same as the next one, it's always our year." and so on. 

In 2024, everything was starting to look like they might win. Sam Burgess as coach seemed to be the magic ingredient. It didn't, of course, end with them winning the league but 2025 could be their year. 

I try not to torment them too much, because they aren't a bad team, usually, and because I really like Stefan Ratchford as a player (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Ratchford). Yes, I know, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's stand-off, but I have wanted him on my team since before his nose was a non-Euclidean nightmare. 

Anyway, following Saints's loss to them in the quarter-final of the Challenge Cup (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-9-challenge-cup-quarterfinal/), game 20 was Saints and Warrington's first meeting in the league. 

And Saints lost. 

Lost to a team who had a man red carded in the 20th minute. And another one yellow carded later. 

It wasn't going to be Saints's season, was it. 

As in the last game (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2025/01/26/saints-ahoy-game-19-and-the-season-to-date/), 4 out of the match day 17 were people who'd made their debuts this season. The season to date visualisations also started to see the effects of Hurrell's injury, as he dropped down the "present for" charts, and this mid-season bundle of Ritson, Royle, Stephens and Paasi really started to form up.

But I get ahead of myself... 

The point-scoring and point-conceding matrix diagrams look pleasingly similar with some small differences. 

Saints players who played together when Saints scored in game 20: Matrix chart of Saints players who played together when Saints scored in game 20. The darkest chunk is Welsby, Vaughan, Sironen, Ritson, Percival, Lomax, Lees, Clark, Bell and Blake. Then there is the orange chunk of next most often together, who are Robertson, Mbye and Paasi. The palest, least-commonly together group are Stephens, Dodd and Royle, but the really interesting thing is the pale zone that shows Robertson, Mbye and Paasi did not play with Stephens, Dodd and Royle. 

The really interesting thing is the pale zone that shows Robertson, Mbye and Paasi didn't play with Stephens, Dodd and Royle. 

Now, from Saints's as it happened report (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-warrington-wolves-2024-07-19/), I know Paasi and Stephens were swapping on and off for each other but I hadn't realised it for the others. 

Saints players who played together when Saints conceded in game 20: Matrix chart of Saints players who played together when Saints conceded in game 20. The first chunk is the second darkest, a sort of dark ruby red. It contains Paasi and Percival. The darkest chunk is Welsby, Vaughan, Sironen, Ritson, Lomax, Lees, Clark, Bell and Blake, suggesting the there was at least one point-conceding moment that Percival was off for. Then there is the orange chunk, paler than in the scoring version, who are Dodd, Royle, Mbye and Robertson. Interestingly, Dodd and Royle and Paasi and Percival were together less often than expected. The palest, least-commonly together group are Stephens and Bennison, but again, they play less often together with Paasi and Percival. 

So it's quite clear that Stephens and Paasi are the people swapping on and off for each other. 

How does that affect the season-long charts? 

20 players have now scored for Saints. Bar chart showing who has scored for Saints, Percival is still way out ahead. 
When do Saints score? Bar chart showing when Saints score. The two peaks of 5 points over the season in that minute are at minutes 50 and 52, with several 4 point minutes after that. 

It looks like Saints score more in the second half than the first. 

Jack Welsby is still ever present when Saints score. Bar chart of who is present when Saints score. Welsby is present for all of the points. He is followed by Blake and Hurrell. Least often are Robertson and Vaughan, season debutants, and Paasi, who has been injured. Hurrell is dropping down the ranks because of injury. 

The "who is present when Saints score?" matrix now looks really complicated. Matrix graph. The darkest area is quite clear - it contains Welsby, Blake, Hurrell, Percival, Sironen, Dodd, Clark, Bell, Lomax, Makinson, Mbye, Matautia, Lees and Delaney. There is variation in the colour with sort of orangier mottling. The drop off from this darkest area is significant, with the rest of the graph being a pale yellow colour mottled with darker flecks. 

The Davies, Ritson, Stephens, Paasi and Royle subgroup is definitely starting to form. In the network graph, there is a central blob, then Davies, Ritson, Stephens, Paasi and Royle at the bottom, with lines between them and the central blob. Sticking out at the top are Knowles, Walmsley and Wingfield. Except one line between Knowles and Walmsley, there are no links between them, just links to the central blob. Warrington hold two of the top 3 places in the "who scored against Saints?" bar chart. Bar chart of the teams that scored the most points against Saints. The team with the most are Hull KR from the first time they played Saints this season. The next two are Warrington when they knocked Saints out of the Challenge Cup (game 9) and Warrington in game 20. When do Saints concede? Bar chart showing when Saints concede points. There are peaks between minutes 9-12, and then a larger plateau between 70 and 80. 

The pattern of Saints conceding in minutes 9-12 or 70 onwards continues. 

Who is present when Saints concede? Bar chart showing who is present when Saints concede. Welsby is ever-present for this too, followed by Blake and Lomax. Wingfield, who has been injured, Robertson, Stephens and Burns (season debutants) have been present for the least. Because the last few games have featured Saints conceding, Hurrell's drop is even bigger here. 

The "who is present together when Saints concede?" matrix diagram is still made of three distinct thirds. Matrix diagram showing who plays together when Saints concede. There is the darkest, most often together third, in the bottom right, then a paler third section (the smallest), then the palest third. 

The network graph of who is together when Saints concede looks very different, more like a starfish with the central blob having lots of extended tentacles. Network graph, the central blob is surrounded by, clockwise from top left, Walmsley, Wingfield, Knowles, Mbye, Ritson and Batchelor. There is a second extension, all towards the bottom with more links between each other than that first six. They are working right to left from under Mbye, Davies, Royle, Vaughan, Robertson and Paasi. Secondary sub-teams, playing together because of injuries to others, are definitely starting to appear.
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