Friday, 28 February 2025

Saints ahoy! - Game 21 and season to date

This is one of the games where I know there are errors in the data. At various points Stephens swapped on for players who weren't on the pitch and I'm not sure when Mbye came on. I do not blame the overworked Saints social media fella, but it'd be nice if Super League tried to give me this information.

(I am not entirely joking when I threaten to do this for St. George Illawarra this season because the NRL has proper stats. Lack of time will be the only thing that stops me.) 

Game 21 itself was also a disappointment, because Saints lost 46-4 to Leigh. So not only did they beat us twice, they beat us twice in leopard print undercrackers (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/07/26/saints-well-beaten-by-leigh/). The two yellow cards for Saints didn't help. 

It turns out the reason the social media team didn't say when Mbye came on was because they were in denial about Welsby going off. Which I really don't blame them for. 

Some quick reworking later, there are better figures. 

This Leigh team are now the team who have scored the most against Saints in 2024. Bar chart of point-scoring moments against Saints. Leigh in game 21 have the most with 15. 

There continues to be a pattern of Saints scoring in minute 50-53. Bar chart showing when Saints score. The two minutes with five point-scoring moments in are minute 50 and 52. Minute 51 and 53 have 3 point-scoring moments each 
There are 4 minutes where Saints have conceded 4 point-scoring moments, with some evidence that they concede often in the last 10 minutes. Bar chart of when Saints concede. Minutes 11, 32, 76 and 80 have 4 point-conceding moments. There is a general shape that suggests Saints concede often in the last 10 minutes. 
Because of injury in this match, Welsby is no longer ever present when Saints score. He is still the player most often present when Saints score, but that's because they only scored once in game 21. Bar chart of who is present when Saints score. Welsby is still present for the most, 156, followed by Blake and Hurrell. Paasi, Vaughan and Robertson are present for the least, but Vaughan and Robertson are new this season. 
Because of the injury, Welsby is no longer the player present most often when Saints concede. Bar chart of who is present when Saints concede. Blake is now present for the most, followed by Welsby and Lomax. Royle, Wingfield and Burns are present for the least. 

The "who is present together when Saints score" is now four quadrants, with a intermediate group between them. The intermediate group are Whitley, Batchelor and Bennison. Whitley is just back from injury, which might explain it. 

The line that interests me is Ritson's, because where it crosses Lomax, Percival, Blake, and Welsby's, it is darker than expected. Not by much, but enough to be seen. Matrix graph as described above. The darkest, most often together, section is bottom left, with pale areas covering the top and leftermost parts. 

The who-is-present-together-when-Saints-concede matrix is fascinating. Matrix diagram of who is present together when Saints concede. The reason it is fascinating is that the paler areas have parts that look like fractals or crenelations. I cannot explain them statistically. 

My best guess for why is something about Welsby's injury, combined with the many point-conceding moments in this game. 

The network graph equivalent for point-scoring moments shows the central blob and the Stephens, Royle, Ritson and Paasi subgroup. Network graph. There is the central blob. Above it, at top and slightly right, is a subgroup with connections between it, containing Stephens, Royle, Ritson and Paasi. Sticking out from the blob but with no links between them are Walmsley, Knowles and Wingfield but Knowles and Wingfield in particular are almost engulfed in the blob. 

The together-when-Saints-concede network graph looks more like the expected starfish, although there's signs of that subgroup in this one too. In this network graph, as well as the central blob there is sort of a Stephens, Royle, Ritson, Paasi, Vaughan and Stephens subgroup, this time top and turning round the corner to the right. However, in this graph, the subgroup has more connections to the central blob. At the bottom of the blob Wingfield and Walmsley stick out, at the right and left respectively. 

I think it's interesting that even with 21 games worth of data, the shapes and patterns are still changing.
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Saturday, 22 February 2025

Withdrawals from the 2024 Tour de France

I was going to say that there were relatively few withdrawals, and then stage 12 happened (https://www.rouleur.cc/blogs/the-rouleur-journal/from-covid-to-crashes-how-stage-12-of-the-tour-de-france). From a viz perspective, it's interesting because you can see stage 11 and 12 happening to the peleton in the picture. Kaplan Meier diagram of all the riders in the peleton. The line is flat until stage 11, then becomes a diagonal downward slope (about 3 percent per day) until day 17, then it flattens out again until day 21 (the last day/stage). 

Or, you can't half tell which week had the mountain stages. 

You can also see the race happening to Astana (the red-orange line) in the Kaplan Meier split out by teams. Kaplan Meier curve split out by teams. It is very busy. The red-orange line is Astana because I still have no way of using proper team colours. Their line starts to drop earlier and by the end, only half of their team remains. Other teams also drop but more slowly or not to the same extent. 

The next visualisation is a pie chart of withdrawals by stage. Pie chart showing withdrawals by stage. Stage 12 (pale green) had the most with 6, but was closely followed by stage 14 (brown-red) and 17 (mid-blue) who had 4 withdrawals and stage 11 (light blue) and 19 (dark green) with 3 each. 

The interesting thing is that while normally there's maybe 2 or 3 stages that stand out for having a lot of withdrawals, in 2024, there were no real standout "evil" stages. 

All withdrawals Pie chart of all withdrawals. Did not start the stage withdrawals, in blue, are 69% of all withdrawals. Mid-stage abandonments, in orange, are 26% of all withdrawals. Over the time limit withdrawals, in grey, are 5% of all withdrawals. 

Did not start the stage withdrawals are most of the withdrawals, which is possibly because it takes over night for the riders to realise they are too injured to continue. Adrenaline is a terrible thing.

Withdrawals by week by type 

Week 1's withdrawals were all either Did Not Starts or mid-stage Abandonments Pie chart showing the week 1 withdrawals. Blue, did not start the stage, withdrawals were 67% of all withdrawals in week 1, while orange, mid-stage abandonments were 33%. 

Week 2 featured Did Not Starts, mid-stage Abandonments and some Outside the Time Limit withdrawals. Pie chart showing the week 2 withdrawals. Blue, did not start the stage, withdrawals were 33% of all withdrawals in week 2, while orange, mid-stage abandonments were 43% and grey, over the time limit withdrawals were 24%. 
Week 3 also features all three kinds of withdrawals. Pie chart showing the week 3 withdrawals. Blue, did not start the stage, withdrawals were 55% of all withdrawals in week 3, while orange, mid-stage abandonments were 36% and grey, over the time limit withdrawals were 9%. 
Withdrawals by type by week Pie chart of mid-stage abandonments by week. Week 1, in blue, had 7% of all the mid-stage abandons, week 2, in orange, had 64% of them and week 3, in grey, had 29% of them. Pie chart of did not start the stage withdrawals by week. Week 1, in blue, had 13% of all the DNS withdrawals, week 2, in orange, had 47% of them and week 3, in grey, had 40% of them. Pie chart of all the over the timelimit withdrawals by week. Week 1 had none, week 2, in orange, had 83% of them and week 3, in grey, had 17% of them. 
That's another set of charts that shows most of the mountain stages were in week 2, because those are the stages where people are most likely to be over the time limit. 

This series was originally intended to see if more riders withdraw in Olympics years (and showed that they don't - https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/11/18/withdrawals-in-week-3-of-the-2023-tour-de-france-an-overall-round-up-and-confirmation-that-the-olympics-didnt-cause-more-withdrawals/), it's interesting to see that there are two groups of races when you compare the withdrawal Kaplan Meier charts since 2020, and two curve shapes. Kaplan Meier diagrams of all 5 races, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. 2021 has a different curve shape to the others. The end points of 2021 and 2020 are at similar points, while 2022, 2023 and 2024 also match. 

I can maybe explain 2021's shape being different, although the end point isn't significantly different, because of the COVID withdrawals. 2021 was also the last year before the riders reduced in number, which might explain the two clumps. It's easier for a wounded but not out rider to hide in a pack, whether that pack is his own team, or a larger groupetto.
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Saturday, 15 February 2025

Formula 1 - Hungarian Grand Prix 2024

I'm not going to get this or the Rugby League project finished in time for the start of their respective seasons. There's a reason my next big project will start in September.


See, I am not even a McLaren fan, and the way they were obviously starting to be better than Ferrari, I really wasn't by the time of the Hungarian Grand Prix last year, but I wanted Piastri's first win to be less anti-climactic than that.

And trust me, British commentators, I noticed that suddenly team orders are already when the British teams do it. Like I appreciate the point of McLaren had to appear fair, and they didn't know how close the end of the year would get, but the end of the year also explains why I am okay with teams having rigid "driver 1, driver 2" style team orders. Like, I think Verstappen would have won any way, but it makes it a bit of a "what could have been" for Norris.

(I feel I need to add, I am Papaya neutral, I don't prefer Norris or Piastri.)
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Monday, 10 February 2025

Saints Ahoy! - Game 20 and the season to date

Every league has a team like Warrington. Their purpose is to look like they could win the league, if everything lines up for them, and then things suddenly just don't line up for them. And the just don't continues for a long period of time. 

In Warrington's case, the "and then something went wrong" has lasted since 1955 (they have won the Cup since then, but never the league). Even their own fans sing a song about it. "It's always our year, it's always our year, same as the next one, it's always our year." and so on. 

In 2024, everything was starting to look like they might win. Sam Burgess as coach seemed to be the magic ingredient. It didn't, of course, end with them winning the league but 2025 could be their year. 

I try not to torment them too much, because they aren't a bad team, usually, and because I really like Stefan Ratchford as a player (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Ratchford). Yes, I know, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's stand-off, but I have wanted him on my team since before his nose was a non-Euclidean nightmare. 

Anyway, following Saints's loss to them in the quarter-final of the Challenge Cup (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-9-challenge-cup-quarterfinal/), game 20 was Saints and Warrington's first meeting in the league. 

And Saints lost. 

Lost to a team who had a man red carded in the 20th minute. And another one yellow carded later. 

It wasn't going to be Saints's season, was it. 

As in the last game (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2025/01/26/saints-ahoy-game-19-and-the-season-to-date/), 4 out of the match day 17 were people who'd made their debuts this season. The season to date visualisations also started to see the effects of Hurrell's injury, as he dropped down the "present for" charts, and this mid-season bundle of Ritson, Royle, Stephens and Paasi really started to form up.

But I get ahead of myself... 

The point-scoring and point-conceding matrix diagrams look pleasingly similar with some small differences. 

Saints players who played together when Saints scored in game 20: Matrix chart of Saints players who played together when Saints scored in game 20. The darkest chunk is Welsby, Vaughan, Sironen, Ritson, Percival, Lomax, Lees, Clark, Bell and Blake. Then there is the orange chunk of next most often together, who are Robertson, Mbye and Paasi. The palest, least-commonly together group are Stephens, Dodd and Royle, but the really interesting thing is the pale zone that shows Robertson, Mbye and Paasi did not play with Stephens, Dodd and Royle. 

The really interesting thing is the pale zone that shows Robertson, Mbye and Paasi didn't play with Stephens, Dodd and Royle. 

Now, from Saints's as it happened report (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-warrington-wolves-2024-07-19/), I know Paasi and Stephens were swapping on and off for each other but I hadn't realised it for the others. 

Saints players who played together when Saints conceded in game 20: Matrix chart of Saints players who played together when Saints conceded in game 20. The first chunk is the second darkest, a sort of dark ruby red. It contains Paasi and Percival. The darkest chunk is Welsby, Vaughan, Sironen, Ritson, Lomax, Lees, Clark, Bell and Blake, suggesting the there was at least one point-conceding moment that Percival was off for. Then there is the orange chunk, paler than in the scoring version, who are Dodd, Royle, Mbye and Robertson. Interestingly, Dodd and Royle and Paasi and Percival were together less often than expected. The palest, least-commonly together group are Stephens and Bennison, but again, they play less often together with Paasi and Percival. 

So it's quite clear that Stephens and Paasi are the people swapping on and off for each other. 

How does that affect the season-long charts? 

20 players have now scored for Saints. Bar chart showing who has scored for Saints, Percival is still way out ahead. 
When do Saints score? Bar chart showing when Saints score. The two peaks of 5 points over the season in that minute are at minutes 50 and 52, with several 4 point minutes after that. 

It looks like Saints score more in the second half than the first. 

Jack Welsby is still ever present when Saints score. Bar chart of who is present when Saints score. Welsby is present for all of the points. He is followed by Blake and Hurrell. Least often are Robertson and Vaughan, season debutants, and Paasi, who has been injured. Hurrell is dropping down the ranks because of injury. 

The "who is present when Saints score?" matrix now looks really complicated. Matrix graph. The darkest area is quite clear - it contains Welsby, Blake, Hurrell, Percival, Sironen, Dodd, Clark, Bell, Lomax, Makinson, Mbye, Matautia, Lees and Delaney. There is variation in the colour with sort of orangier mottling. The drop off from this darkest area is significant, with the rest of the graph being a pale yellow colour mottled with darker flecks. 

The Davies, Ritson, Stephens, Paasi and Royle subgroup is definitely starting to form. In the network graph, there is a central blob, then Davies, Ritson, Stephens, Paasi and Royle at the bottom, with lines between them and the central blob. Sticking out at the top are Knowles, Walmsley and Wingfield. Except one line between Knowles and Walmsley, there are no links between them, just links to the central blob. Warrington hold two of the top 3 places in the "who scored against Saints?" bar chart. Bar chart of the teams that scored the most points against Saints. The team with the most are Hull KR from the first time they played Saints this season. The next two are Warrington when they knocked Saints out of the Challenge Cup (game 9) and Warrington in game 20. When do Saints concede? Bar chart showing when Saints concede points. There are peaks between minutes 9-12, and then a larger plateau between 70 and 80. 

The pattern of Saints conceding in minutes 9-12 or 70 onwards continues. 

Who is present when Saints concede? Bar chart showing who is present when Saints concede. Welsby is ever-present for this too, followed by Blake and Lomax. Wingfield, who has been injured, Robertson, Stephens and Burns (season debutants) have been present for the least. Because the last few games have featured Saints conceding, Hurrell's drop is even bigger here. 

The "who is present together when Saints concede?" matrix diagram is still made of three distinct thirds. Matrix diagram showing who plays together when Saints concede. There is the darkest, most often together third, in the bottom right, then a paler third section (the smallest), then the palest third. 

The network graph of who is together when Saints concede looks very different, more like a starfish with the central blob having lots of extended tentacles. Network graph, the central blob is surrounded by, clockwise from top left, Walmsley, Wingfield, Knowles, Mbye, Ritson and Batchelor. There is a second extension, all towards the bottom with more links between each other than that first six. They are working right to left from under Mbye, Davies, Royle, Vaughan, Robertson and Paasi. Secondary sub-teams, playing together because of injuries to others, are definitely starting to appear.
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