This Sporting Blog: April 2024

Friday, 19 April 2024

Formula 1 2024 - Australian Grand Prix

Apparently, getting your appendix removed acts like go-faster stripes - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68649296

Before any of the speed freaks get any ideas, that's a joke.

A Ferrari 1-2 should always be celebrated, except there's that sinking feeling that it was only possible because Max Verstappen's car broke.

Also, having the race carry on while a driver was trapped in his car on the circuit - not good. F1, you are better than that.

Wednesday, 17 April 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 6 and the season to date - now with the Challenge Cup

I was torn about including the Challenge Cup matches in this analysis. Because it's supposed to be covering the League, and the Cup is separate from the League.

On the other hand, as L pointed out when I asked, Rugby League is not like football; because the Super League teams only join the cup in the 6th round, there isn't as much squad rotation. Therefore, I am going to include the Challenge Cup games.

Of course, the minute I do that, Saints don't play two of their previous "always presents", Makinson and Dodd, in the Challenge Cup match against Leeds. Dodd was explained as a precautionary, but I'm not sure if an explanation was ever given for Makinson's absence. Saints also played Clark and Mbye together, which is also going to confuse the diagrams.

This was the second away match against Leeds in a row, and sure, Saints had beaten them in the League (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/leeds-rhinos-v-saints-2024-03-15/) but I then had the fear over the Challenge Cup match. Saints won (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/03/22/saints-progress-to-challenge-cup-quarter-finals/)

The changes to the team meant the "play together when Saints score in game 6" matrix looks like this:

There is a cluster of dark purple always together of Whitley, Welsby, Mbye, Matautia, Lomax, Hurrell, Bennison and Blake. Then there is the orange of Delaney, Bell and Clark. Sironen and Wingfield are the next level of orange down, but they are split by a yellow-orange Batchelor. Lees at the top is the next orange, between Lees and Sironen are the palest, Knowles and Walmsley.

The most interesting thing to me is that the crossing point for Batchelor, Wingfield, Delaney, Bell and Clark and Knowles and Walmsley is so pale, suggesting that those two don't play on the pitch with the others when Saints score.

Because this was the second match of Percival's ban (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/04/05/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-4-and-the-season-to-date/), Lomax who took over the kicking duties from Percival really has shot up the "Point-scoring moments, season to date" chart.

Bar chart. Percival still has the most with 10. Lomax now has 8. They are followed on 4 by Welsby, Makinson and Dodd, then Whitley and Bennison on 3, Walmsley and Clark on 2, then Mbye, Matautia, Knowles and Blake on 1.

In the point-scoring moments present for diagram, for the season to date, the Whitley, Welsby, Lomax, Dodd and Makinson group has been broken up.

Bar chart - Whitley, Welsby and Lomax are the only players present for all point-scoring moments. Blake has been present for 40. Then come Makinson and Dodd. On the bottom end, Batchelor is finally present (yay!), then Davies and Knowles.

The dendrogram has become very complicated.

Deliberately not writing every players name. There are now three clusters. At the bottom, there are Lees, Knowles, Walmsley and Davies, the lesser used props. Then there is a frequently present group that are not tightly clustered, and finally Mbye and Batchelor stuck out at the top.

Which also makes the matrix complicated.

The purple cluster is now only Whitley, Welsby and Lomax. The two dark red patches are where their lines cross those of the other players who play often. The dark orange is the players one step less frequent. There is one sticky out dark orange square for where Sironen and Clark cross. The medium orange are the next step down. The medium orange chunk is broken up by a line of yellow for Percival, thanks to him being subbed off early in games and because he missed two matches suspended. Lees and Walmsley are the next palest, then Mbye, Knowles, Davies and Batchelor.

As well as Sironen and Clark's crossing point being darker than their surrounding area, suggesting they play together more often, so is Clark and Lees and Walmsley and Sironen, while Walmsley and Clark, Clark and Delaney and Percival and Blake have paler crossings than expected.

The network diagram looks like this:

There is a central cluster of Welsby, Whitley and Lomax, surrounded by an outer ring of (clockwise from top) Dodd, Sironen, Clark, Blake, Bennison, Hurrell, Bell and Makinson. Outside them to the left are Wingfield and Delaney, and Matautia to the bottom. Sticking out at the top is Percival, then Walmsley, Lees and Knowles to the right, and Mbye at the bottom left.

It's now 19 players.

It's interesting that his suspension for two games has moved Percival out of the middle, and there's now a decided cluster of replacement props at the left.

Looking at the concession diagrams, Clark is higher up in this than expected.

Present for all 15 of them are Whitley, Welsby, Lomax and Clark. Mbye is present for the least with 2.

Whitley, Welsby and Lomax are ever presents so their presence makes sense. Clark's less so.

The dendrogram is three clusters, and three straight lines:

Starting from the bottom, the first cluster is Matautia, Hurrell, Knowles, Lees and Walmsley, then there are the three straight lines of Mbye, Percival and Wingfield, then the frequently present cluster, and at the top is another forward cluster of Delaney, Bell and Sironen.

I do find it interesting that there's two separate forward clusters, possibly suggesting forward pairings.

The matrix looks like a zoomed-in tartan.

The dark purple cluster is cut through by a single red-brown line, causing the tartan effect. The red-brown line is Makinson.

The Blake and Mata'utia, Mata'utia and Hurrell, Sironen and Bell and Bennison and Bell crossing squares are darker than expected, while the Bennison and Mata'utia, Makinson and Sironen, Mbye and Makinson and Walmsley and Sironen crossings are lighter than expected.

The concession network graph still only has 11 players on it.

It is now a central trio of Clark, Whitley and Lomax, surrounded by (clockwork from the top), Delaney, Welsby, Bennison, Makinson, Dodd, Blake, Sironen and Bell.

I'm not sure why Welsby is in the outer ring, not the middle.

I don't think it's quite at the point where I can guess the starting 17, but I think it's getting there. I blame uncertainty around the forwards.

Saturday, 13 April 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 5 and the season to date

I told you I was trying to catch up with everything that I'd missed. I am aware I am 3 rugby league games (about to be four) and 2 F1 races behind.

The Leeds Rhinos vs St Helens Saints league game (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/leeds-rhinos-v-saints-2024-03-15/) was the first of two back-to-back games vs Leeds. Despite Leeds's poor start to the season (by their standards), I was quite worried about this game.

Saints proceeded to not help matters by not turning up for the first quarter of the match.

When Saints conceded:

This match was also the first time the Saints live text has let me down.

I know Mbye must have come on before he scored, but it didn't say when, so there's now going to be a slight * against him and Clark's data (because if he came on for anyone, it was Clark as they are our hookers). The advantage to getting data over a whole season is that one oops ought to be watered down.

Who scored for Saints up to game 5?

Bar chart. Percival is still top with 10 point-scoring moments, because he is the main kicker for Saints. Next, on four point-scoring moments each, are Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd, followed by Whitley on three, Bennison on two, and Walmsley, Mbye, Matautia, Knowles, Clark and Blake on 1.

With Percival missing the game due to being sent off in the last game (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/04/05/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-4-and-the-season-to-date/), Lomax took over the kicking duties, which is why he has risen so far up that bar chart.

Okay, let's look at point-scoring moments players were present for:

Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd have been present for all 37 of the point-scoring moments for Saints. Davies has been present for the least with 4, then Mbye with 5 and Knowles with 9.

The dendrogram for when players are on the pitch together at Saints's point-scoring moments has become more complex, there's only really one true cluster left, of Lomax, Makinson, Dodd, Welsby and Whitley.

What is interesting is that there's now two clear "families" of players, Lees, Knowles, Walmsley, Davies and Mbye in one, and everyone else in the other. I know Lees and Knowles haven't played as much as I would have expected, Davies barely at all, and Mbye only when they need to spell Clark, but I felt Walmsley had played more. So count one for stats telling you something you don't feel.

The important points of the dendrogram are described in the text above.

On the other hand, the matrix diagram does have Walmsley in a darker colour than the others so maybe he is just very effective when he is on the pitch.

The matrix makes it look like three groups, the Lees, Knowles, Walmsley, Davies and Mbye one, then Bell, Sironen, Hurrell, Bennison, Matautia, Delaney, Percival and Wingfield, then finally the darker coloured group of Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Clark and Blake.

The network graph is now an interesting shape, with a central cluster with Walmsley, Lees and Knowles hanging off.

There is a slightly left offset central core of Delaney, Bell, Hurrell, Clark, Blake, Whitley, Welsby, Dodd, Lomax, Bennison, Percival, Sironen, Wingfield and Matautia. Hanging off the core are Walmsley, Lees and Knowles.

Looking at when Saints concede instead:

Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd and Clark have been present all 13 times Saints conceded. Then Blake and Bennison on 12. Walmsley and Lees are present for the least, with 3, then Percival and Matautia with 4 and Knowles and Hurrell for 5.

The players present for the most (Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd and Clark) are the ones that have been present the most when Saints score, with the exception of Clark who is sometimes swapped out for Mbye.

Looking at the players present for the least, Walmsley and Lees are present for the least, with 3, then Percival and Matautia with 4 and Knowles and Hurrell for 5. I'm starting to wonder if I have anyway of looking at it divided by time played, because I know Percival was being subbed out at 50 mins even before the sending off.

The concession dendrogram has the same pattern as the bar chart.

The concession matrix has an interesting pattern of colours

You would expect only one dark cluster, of Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd and Clark. That dark cluster is present, but there is a second dark cluster of Blake and Bennison, separated from the other by Sironen and Delaney (their own dark orange cluster), Wingfield (who is his own medium shade of orange) and Bell (darker orange than Wingfield, not as dark as Sironen and Delany). The points where Sironen, Delaney, Wingfield and Bell cross Matautia, Lees and Walmsley are so pale that it is clear that they do not play together.

I was only expecting one really dark cluster, not two, and the points where Sironen, Delaney, Wingfield and Bell cross Matautia, Lees and Walmsley are so pale that it is clear that they do not play together, so I think we can really start to see who the forward pairings are when Saints concede.

Wingfield and Knowles don't play together, and neither do Bell and Hurrell.

That Percival doesn't play with Matautia, Lees and Walmsley is unexpected.

There are still only 11 players on the "when Saints concede" network diagram,

Welsby and Delaney are still in the centre, surrounded by (clockwise from top) Makinson, Blake, Whitley, Sironen, Lomax, Bennison, Clark, Dodd and Bell.

Friday, 5 April 2024

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 4 and the season to date

(Delayed due to extreme RL busyness)

L was slightly concerned that I hadn't stated that I was a Saints fan quite loudly enough in my previous posts. I think it may become obvious throughout this summary of the Saints vs Salford match. All winning runs have to come to an end, and 44 years is a pretty long time to not be beaten at home (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/68501496 / https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-salford-red-devils-2024-03-08/) and they needed Percival to get sent off for goodness knows what to beat Saints.

That does explain why Percival is, once again, alone in the dendrogram.

Dendrogram - players are in 4 groups. A large group with Blake, Bennison, Clark, Dodd, Lomax, Makinson, Sironen, Welsby and Whitley, then a second group of Bell, Delaney and Wingfield, a group of Matautia, Knowles and Walmsley, and Percival on his own.

It shows you that Sironen put one heck of a shift in to cover for Saints being a man down.

This match has an interesting effect on the "up to the end of game 4" charts.

When Saints score still hasn't really built up into an informative pile of data, but point-scorers (no division between tries and kicks) is starting to:

Percival has the most point-scoring moments with 10, followed by Welsby, Dodd and Makinson on 4. Then there is Whitley on 3, then Walmsley, Matautia, Lomax, Knowles, Clark and Bennison.

Percival having the most moments makes sense, with him being the kicker (if only he could convert more often), and Dodd and Makinson who can also kick makes sense, Welsby up there highlights his wonderful poaching abilities. Whitley on 3 is an unexpected bonus. He's working out well so far, isn't he?

Point-scoring moments present for also highlights those players, and makes it clear Clark is definitely first choice hooker.

Point-scoring moments present for. Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd in the joint lead with 31, then Sironen (who really is putting in some shifts), Mbye is at the bottom with 3, then Davies on 4 and Knowles on 6.

I do like how high up some of the academy grads are. I mean the most recent crop, not some of the older heads (help, Lomax is now an older head).

The matrix is starting to look complicated:

The dark purple patch is Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd. The thing that catches my eye is that Bennison is a much darker orange than I would expect for where he is in the diagram. It suggests not on often, put plays with the heavy point scorers when he does.

Sironen is at the centre of the diagram. Around him are (starting from top and moving clockwise) Dodd, Clark, Lomax, Blake, Percival, Whitley, Makinson and Welsby. The outer ring are Matautia, Lees, Walmsley, Bell, Hurrell, Delaney, Wingfield and Bennison.

The network diagram does give a nice matchday 17 - Sironen, Dodd, Clark, Lomax, Blake, Percival, Whitley, Makinson, Welsby, Matautia, Lees, Walmsley, Bell, Hurrell, Delaney, Wingfield and Bennison.

Because Salford scored several points, there's now enough data to have some solid numbers for "players present when Saints concede". The only problem is it won't include Percival as much as it maybe should given his sending off was sort of responsible for some of the concessions.

Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Delaney and Clark are present for the most with 10, followed by Blake, Bennison and Bell with 9, Wingfield with 8, Percival with 4, Knowles and Hurrell on 2 and Matautia with 1.

Percival is also a darker colour than expected on the concession matrix.

The dark purple patch is Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Delaney and Clark. Percival is a darker sand colour, even though he is at the top of the diagram where I expect much paler colours.

The network diagram for players present when Saints concede only has 11 players on.

In the centre, like binary stars, are Welsby and Lomax, they are surrounded by (clockwise from the top) Sironen, Clark, Delaney, Blake, Bennison, Dodd, Makinson, Whitley and Bell.

The diagrams are mostly making me appreciate Sironen at lot more. There's a reason why Saints fans rate him.