Saturday 14 October 2023

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 - A closer look at England after their fourth game

I am not convinced that Steve Borthwick knows what his best team is. L has said you don't need fancy stats to see that, just watch them play, but the visualisations really do back the statement up. 

I think it's clearest in the dendrogram of England players together on the pitch when they score: Dendogram-after-4 There's no clusters of players often on the pitch together at the same time, which reflects players not playing together, which means they don't have the chance to gel. 

The diagram of players who scored points for England also shows this (the x-axis is point scoring moments)  Point-scoring-moments-per-player-after-4 You've got the kickers and then no-one else consistently scoring (Arundell's were all in one game).

England point-scoring moments by time and scorer   England-point-scoring-moments-by-time-and-player-after-4 England still have fewer point-scoring moments in the first 20 minutes than the other quarter chunks.

Elliot Daly has been present for the most point-scoring moments   Number-of-point-scoring-moments-England-players-were-present-for-after-4 Elliot Daly being present for the most out of everyone (30/42) is reflected in the equally confused looking matrix and network diagram.  He's the unexpectedly darker line in the pale section.  England-scoring-matrix-after-4 Network-graph-after-4 

At the same point of the Rugby League World Cup, I could guess who would be picked. Here, I've got no chance. 

The concession dendrogram  is a little more clumped, due to fewer events overall and Chile not scoring against England.Concession-dendrogram-after-4
The matrix and network diagrams are also clearer.Concession-matrix-after-4 Concession-Network-Diagram-after-4 Not that I can explain why Elliot Daly isn't on this one. 

My heart belongs to Fiji anyway (or as one of the ITV team put it "everyone's second favourite team, unless they're playing your first team"), and if Fiji cut out the handling errors, it could be an interesting match.

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