I want to preface this by stating that the RFL and Super League really did not help the Toronto Wolfpack situation and letting the other Super League teams vote on Toronto's future was asking for trouble. It was also an abdication of responsibility by Super League and the RFL.
I also don't bear Toronto Wolfpack any ill-will (my feelings about Brian McDermott are a different matter and he can continue to take a long one off a short plank). I wanted them to succeed, and I did my best to promote their cause to the unknowing.
That being said, was anyone actually surprised when it all went wrong? I know the original ownership are blaming COVID, but I suspect something similar would have happened anyway.
I suspect this because I am old enough to remember the failures of Paris Saint Germain and the Celtic Crusaders, and the successes of Catalan Dragons and the London Broncos (note, success here is defined as 'still a going concern').
What raised alarm bells with Toronto?
- A team plonked in an area with no pre-existing rugby (league) bedrock. This was true of PSG and Crusaders, it was not true of Broncos or Catalan.
- The players brought in were established stars, moving towards the twilight of their careers. I get why - name recognition, known pedigree, etc - but it means there's an increased risk of longer injuries and high wage costs, which put together means the team might not have the funds or other resources to cover when the players get injured. (This failing is not limited to expansion teams, established teams determined to reach the Super League have also done this. Looking at you, Leigh!)
These two combine to ring a third alarm bell.
- No local players, and no obvious sign of attempting to grow them. There were no Canadians on this team, even PSG had French players! Rugby league has very lenient nationality rules*, but they couldn't even find a single Australio-Canadian to play for them.
Having local players is helpful to a new team for a couple of reasons. If we assume a new team is not going to do well in its first few seasons, it needs something else to bring in the punters. Having a pre-existing local base of interest helps with that, in that situation people are already interested in rugby league, you need to do less convincing/converting. If you haven't got that but do have a local player, you can use them to build up interest.
Where expansion has worked, there have been established amateur teams.
If International Rugby League really is serious about bringing the Canadians into the rugby league fold, I think throwing them in the second-deepest end was a bad idea. There is already a US League, and adding a Canadian team or teams to that would have been a good first step. It would have prepared the ground, and allowed Toronto to build itself up.
A lot of the noise around a possible New York expansion worries me, because it's very similar to the buzz around Toronto, and it sounds like no lessons have been learnt.
*A discussion for another time, but I like this leniency and I think it's probably one of the best thing that International Rugby League the organisation have done to spread the game.
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