The road to explicableness - A closer look at England after their seventh World Cup game

I've spent the rest of these posts complaining that the diagrams of who plays with who when England score and concede make little sense. Following the third place play-off match they have started to make more sense. I think it's because it was the 4th match were Steve Borthwick was able to play his preferred team (built around his preferred fly-half and captain Owen Farrell) vs the three where he couldn't due to Farrell's suspension. 

The who scored, and when did they score charts have always made sense.  

Of the 65 point-scoring moments for England, Ben Earl was present for the most (51/65), followed by Joe Marchant, Owen Farrell and Maro Itoje. Jack Walker and Sam Underhill were present for the least (7 and 8 respectively), which makes sense because they only took part in 1 game each. Bevan Rodd was present for 13 over 2 games. 

The dendrogram makes it clear how mix-and-matchy the squads put out were:  

But the matrix network diagram now clearly shows who the "chosen 15" were, followed by the "sometimes" played and then, palest in the top left, the "I'm only playing you because I have to". (I'm being slightly mean to Steve Borthwick there, it's clear that he would have played Theo Dan only he's an excellent future replacement for Jamie George when he retires, but Jamie George is still there) 

The network diagram is less clear, with a general mush with Underhill, Walker and Rodd the outliers.  

England played Argentina twice in this tournament, so I've labelled the 3rd place play-off team "Argentina2". (England rugby league have done this to me before, so I was prepared.) 

This Argentina team scored the joint most points against England at this tournament. The pattern have of England conceding in minute 20-30 and 60-70 remained, which can be seen in two more charts, one with when England conceded, and then that chart coloured by which team scored against England.   Maro Itoje, Ben Earl and Joe Marchant were on the pitch for the most point-concession moments, but they were on the pitch a lot. They were on for 31/31 point-conceding moments. David Ribbans, Bevan Rodd and George Martin (no, not that one) were present for the least, present for 1,2 and 4 point-conceding moments respectively. 

The dendrogram and the matrix for point-concessions are less clear  

But the network diagram is fascinating, with the central 12 giving a good idea of who Borthwick's chosen are (Elliot Daly, Jonny May, Ollie Chessum, Jamie George, Joe Marchant, Maro Itoje, Courtney Lawes, Owen Farrell, Ben Earl, Freddie Stewart, Manu Tuilagi and Tom Curry).   

I hope you've enjoyed reading these as much as I have making them.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 - Final Network Diagram

This one is less fun that most because the teams are not linked at all, mostly due to New Zealand's "you have to play in NZ" policy. 

The most interesting thing is probably the different distribution of the players. The New Zealand players all play for the same 5 teams, South Africa are split, playing for 17 club teams. This is reflected in the club teams with the most players still in. Crusaders have the most with 10, followed by Blues with 8 and Chiefs and Sharks, the only South African team in the top 3 most represented, with 7. 

So what can I talk about instead? 

How about an interesting stat? 

Much was made about the number of South Africa games that Ben O'Keefe refereed in this tournament (he can't referee the final as he is from New Zealand). 

Interestingly, Wayne Barnes, who is refereeing the final, has refereed New Zealand twice this tournament and South Africa not at all. 

Given we know every referee interprets the rules slightly differently (not a diss, just a fact), and you have to play to the referee's interpretation, it will be interesting to see how long it takes South Africa to acclimatise to the referee.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 - A closer look at England after their sixth game

I know I've said a lot about England being inexplicable this World Cup, and wasn't that performance in the semifinal the most inexplicable of the lot. 

Who was expecting such a strong performance against South Africa?

Who had point-scoring moments for England?    Which once again highlights England's reliance on their kickers.

When do England score?    The pattern of not scoring as many in the first 20 minutes remains. 

England point-scoring moments by time and player:

The dendrogram continues to show that there was no continuity in England players who played together when they scored.

Which is also seen in the matrix diagram and the network diagram The network diagram makes it particularly clear, because there's two separate lumps, with a couple of players linking them. 

If we look at point-concessions instead, England concede in minute 20-30 of each half.   

I think Borthwick played Steward because he trusts him more than Smith defensively, which is supported by South Africa having fewer point-scoring moments than Fiji did.  

I know there's a suggestion that Borthwick maybe should have changed to a more attacking formation 5 minutes earlier, but England wouldn't have been able to do that if they hadn't been building on a solid defence. 

While Elliot Daly is still the player present for the most point scoring moments for England: Itoje, Earl and Marchant were present for the most concessions.

The concession dendrogram looks like this: The concession matrix looks more like this:  And the 20 players in the network diagram for concessions give a good idea of who England's first 22 are. Since Borthwick has made it clear that he's going to use the 3rd place match to give players who've not had much game time a go, I think all the diagrams are going to get even more confused.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 - Semifinal Network Diagrams

Keeping the same delay I've had throughout the tournament, please enjoy the network diagrams for the semifinals. 

They're far more spread out that the equivalent football and rugby league ones, particularly due to how "isolated" New Zealand are.  

Argentina are the national team closest to the centre, with Brive the club team closest (just). 

Crusaders have the most players represented with 10, followed by Saracens with 9 and Blues and Leicester Tigers with 8. 

All four countries are their own separate communities in the community view.  

Formula 1 - Qatar Grand Prix 2023

There were some advantages to Qatar being too rough on the tyres, it did limit the amount of pitstop nonsense. It'd be nice if we could do that somewhere that wasn't so hot people were all but passing out.

(I am also in the minority who are okay with the track limits penalties because there is a simple way to avoid them ... don't go off the track. Guys, if you're supposed to be the best drivers in the world, you should be able to manage that.) 

I'm moving slightly away from my usual format to look at an interesting problem three of the leading teams share. 

They have two drivers who both want to be number 1 and could both have a claim on it. 

Red Bull avoid this by having a clear number 1, I believe probably a contractually enshrined number 1. Now, there's those who say that's unfair, but at least it prevents some squabbling and number 2 knew what he was signing on for, even if I can only imagine their pitbox is something like this:  

The reason you don't want the squabbling is that it costs time, effort and design tokens to get new parts so often there's only enough for 1 person to try them. 

What's interesting is how the other teams are handling it. 

Ferrari, other than Qatar where they handled it by only having one car*, seem to be sticking to letting them fight it out, which, while giving the fans and Vasseur conniptions, probably will work for the time being because it's very rare where there's races where both of them are doing well. Circuits very much seem to be either Leclerc tracks or Sainz tracks, or one of them picks up a grid penalty which makes it the other's race. 

Mercedes seem to be going with "if we think one car is on the better strategy we will give team orders to let them overtake"." The problem is that they seem to give Hamilton that strategy most times, and if Russell is supposed to be the post-Hamilton's retirement future, I don't think it'll do much for his confidence. (That and I suspect he is working on a lament formatted in PowerPoint) 

McLaren are more even handed, but it does mean that there's frequent radio traffic from one driver or the other asking to be let past. 

I don't think any of the three tactics will work in the long-term (although Mercedes's problem may fix itself with Hamilton's retirement) and I think there'll be tears before the checkered flag for at least one of the teams this season. 

* no really, Ferrari, how do you justify having an unrepairable oil leak!!! You are one of the biggest teams, Williams and Aston Martin have both fully repaired cars in the same time.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 - A closer look at England after their fifth game

I am continuing to try to make sense of England's World Cup campaign. It remains inexplicable. 

There is a reason this meme is being used everywhere.  

Who scores for England and when? Point scoring moments per quarter: 

0-20 minutes = 7 

21-40 minutes = 15 

41-60 minutes = 15 

61-80 minutes = 15 (4 of the 15 were in the 80th minute, possibly reflecting that England have been grinding games out.)

Elliot Daly remains the England player on the pitch for the most point-scoring moments for England  

He has been present for 40 out of 52 point scoring moments. 

Where it starts to make no sense is when you look at the players who play together when England score. 

A couple of factors add to the confusion. 

1 - Union has 8 subs on the bench and most of them are used so rather than a match day 15, it's 23. This creates more variation. 

2 - Because rugby takes a lot out of the players, squad rotation is more important. This is especially true when you have lots of games in a relatively short period of time. When one of the teams is noticeably weaker than the others (Chile), that gives you the opportunity to rest players. The large number of point-scoring moments in that game have probably skewed the diagrams. 

3 - Two of the players Steve Borthwick likes to play (Owen Farrell and Billy Vunipola) were banned at the start of the tournament and Tom Curry joined them within 3 minutes. The minute Steve Borthwick could, he has played them, and that, I think has made the diagrams more confused. 

The dendrogram, matrix and network diagram are all mightily confused  

I think George Ford's cluster is so far away from the others because Borthwick doesn't play him and Farrell together.  

The equivalent charts for when England concede aren't any clearer, but one thing does stand out, England concede between minute 20 and minute 30.   

3 of the 4 teams that have scored against them have scored then. 

Which players are present when England concede? Maro Itoje, Joe Marchant and Ben Earl have been present every time England have conceded but that's less on them, and more because they've played a lot of minutes.   

I'd say Manu Tuilagi and Jamie George are probably present for more points concessions than you'd expect from their playing time. 

Dendrogram, Matrix and Network Diagram for when England concede This is being posted after England have announced their team for the semifinal. I was going to feel guilty about that but then realised that the team picked for the semifinal very much matches my assessment that none of this makes any sense.

Rugby World Cup 2023 - Quarterfinal Network Visualisation

Only a few days, and four matches, late. 

(If we never speak of the Ireland game again, that would be good) 

(No, really, their reward for beating the Springboks in the group stage was a quarterfinal against New Zealand) 

(How are England the only Northern hemisphere side through?!!!) 

(I mean, if either France or Ireland had lost one more match, I can see the semifinal line up being Argentina vs France, Ireland vs England, because France can out New Zealand New Zealand but not out 'Bok the Springboks, while Ireland were built to disrupt South Africa but didn't seem to be able to deal with New Zealand this time.) 

(It could be worse, they normally peak a year too early, not a month too early). 

Ahem, like I said, let us never speak of this again. 

The quarterfinal diagrams for the Rugby World Cup look significantly different to the group stages, because 3/5ths of the teams are eliminated, which is far more than the equivalent stages of the football (or the rugby league). New Zealand and Ireland are the two teams that stick out the most, both on the left hand side. 

Because the figure is off-centre, Argentina are the team closest to the centre, with Perpignan the club team closest to the centre. 

So many teams being removed has completely changed which club teams have the most representatives. Of the 4 teams with the most players at the start of the competition (Selknam, Penarol, Moana Pasifika and Benetton), only Benetton still have any players left in. 

The teams with the most players left in at this stage are Leinster with 17, Fijian Drua with 16 and Toulouse with 12. In the community diagram, all 8 teams are separate communities.  

My only hope for the semifinals is that they're good games.