Saturday 1 August 2015

World Cup 2018 Qualifying Groups (Which May Shade Into A Rant In Parts)

After much drawing of rabbits balls out of hats, we have the European qualifying groups for the 2018 World Cup.  They are:

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup FGroup GGroup HGroup I
NetherlandsPortugalGermanyWalesRomaniaEnglandSpainBelgiumCroatia
FranceSwitzerlandCzech RepublicAustriaDenmarkSlovakiaItalyBosnia-HerzegovinaIceland
SwedenHungaryNorthern IrelandSerbiaPolandScotlandAlbaniaGreeceUkraine
BulgariaFaroe IslandsNorwayRepublic of IrelandMontenegroSloveniaIsraelEstoniaTurkey
BelarusLatviaAzerbaijanMoldovaArmeniaLithuaniaMacedoniaCyprusFinland
LuxembourgAndorraSan MarinoGeorgiaKazakhstanMaltaLiechtenstein


Gibraltar are only a UEFA member, not a full FIFA member, which is why they're not on here, and Russia have pre-qualified as hosts (I think).  Some of the group members are sick of each other, with several being in the same Euro 2016 qualifying groups.  I think that's a side-effect of the potting process.

I understand why they do that, to help mix everything up a bit in these things, but there's some thing very fishy about the most recent group drawing rule change, making the "big" teams play in the six-member groups, because the TV companies want more of the "big" teams, even though they might not be pot 1 standard.  Because that's fair!

I don't mind when FIFA/UEFA do things like not drawing Spain and Gibraltar together or Armenia and Azerbaijan because of political tensions, because, first do no harm makes sense on these occasions, but TV ratings are not a good reason for doing this.

If you do it straight out of the FIFA rankings, you get:

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup FGroup GGroup HGroup I
GermanyBelgiumNetherlandsPortugalRomaniaEnglandWalesSpainCroatia
Bosnia and HerzegovinaDenmarkIcelandFranceCzech RepublicSwitzerlandItalyAustriaSlovakia
UkraineScotlandPolandHungarySwedenAlbaniaNorthern IrelandSerbiaGreece
EstoniaMontenegroFaroe IslandsBulgariaNorwayRepublic of IrelandIsraelSloveniaTurkey
CyprusLatviaArmeniaFinlandBelarusMacedoniaAzerbaijanLithuaniaMoldova


AndorraSan MarinoMaltaGeorgiaLiechtensteinLuxembourgKazakhstan

Okay, so it means that Germany and Belgium don't get to play as much which they'd probably complain about, and Austria's draw sucks something awful, but the groups do seem more even.  I can also see an argument that this kind of rigidly ranking-based draw would make rank mobility less likely.  So you could do it the way the draws used to be done, where top 8 are pot 1, next 8 are pot 2 and so one, but do it clean and not let the TV companies interfere.

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