Saints Ahoy - Game 14 and the season to date

For a reasonable summary, if you ignore the entire focus being on Leeds when they lost, with not even an interview with Wellens at the end, please see here - https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-league/articles/c877le40j6eo 

My notes have me be-moaning and be-wailing Batchelor injured and a decidedly probable injury to Johnny Lomax because nothing else is going to make him come off the pitch in the 35th minute and not come back at any point afterwards. Welsby is now the only ever-present for every St. Helens point-scoring moment. 

It also featured Tommy Makinson's 200th try for Saints, appropriately a Tommy Mak special (second try in this is the type of thing I mean - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nob6v8W8VB0). 

In terms of the data, it now looks like this.  

Lomax is unexpectedly pale in the matrix chart for game 14, compared to how central he normally is.  

He's not even on the network graph for the game! Now, let's look at the season to date: 

Who scores for Saints?  

Percival, who also kicks conversions, has the most, followed by Lomax and Welsby. Knowles and Batchelor have the least, but they have been injured. And their job is to run into people so other people can score. 

There is still no pattern to when Saints score  

The same chart coloured in by scorer: Who is present when Saints score?  

Because of Lomax coming off in minute 35 of game 14, Welsby is the only ever present. Followed by Blake and Lomax. That's how many point-scoring moments came against Leeds. The three players present for the least number of point-scoring moments are Ritson, Davies and Stephens. Davies has been injured, Stephens is new and no-one knows why they haven't been playing Ritson.  

The network graph looks like this:  

The shape is interesting, because it's now 17 players in the middle, the same as a match day squad. The players are Mata'utia, Sironen, Bell, Dodd, Makinson, Hurrell, Percival, Mbye, Blake, Welsby, Bennison, Clark, Batchelor, Delaney, Lomax, Whitley and Lees. Around the outside are Stephens, Davies, Walmsley, Wingfield and Knowles have either been injured or, in the case of Stephens, are the replacement for an injured player. 

Who scores against Saints?  

The one set of data that is starting to show a pattern is the "when do Saints concede?" graph:  

Of the 53 times Saints have conceded, 8 have come in minute 9-11, a full 15 percent, in those 3 minutes. That's definitely a pattern. 

Who is present when Saints concede?  

Again, it's similar to the who is present when Saints score bar chart but the players that are higher in this one (Dodd is noticeable) is interesting. 

The matrix for "Who is present when Saints concede?" is also similar to the "Present when Saints score" matrix diagram. There are only 16 players in the centre of the "players present together most often when Saints concede".  

The central 16 are Knowles, Bennison, Whitley, Mata'utia, Makinson, Welsby, Hurrell, Blake, Dodd, Sironen, Batchelor, Lomax, Delaney, Clark, Percival and Bell. Around the outside are Walmsley, Wingfield, Ritson, Lees and Mbye.

Formula 1 - Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2024

This has been delayed as I desperately tried to remember anything about this Grand Prix.

I remember nothing.

This is probably not a good sign about the race.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 13 and the season to date

Game 13 was the game when Saints's other problem this season really started to manifest. The wheel of fortune has turned and where Saints were lucky in previous years, this year, Saints were carded at every available opportunity. [This section has been heavily amended by the legal department] 

This time, it was a red card for Tommy Makinson, leaving Saints with 12 men for 67 minutes. Now against this Castleford team, who themselves had a player sent off in the second half, it didn't really matter, but that sort of thing really tots up over the season. 

As does missing kicks, with only 8/12 tries converted. 

Despite the missed kicks, Percival still had the most point scoring moments.  

Especially as he was one of the try scorers. 

Due to the injury problems, this game marked Noah Stephens's debut. He appears thoroughly marvellous. 

Less marvellous was that Wingfield came back from an injury break only to get injured again. 

This game brought up Saints's 100th point-scoring moment of the season. By the end, they were up to 103. 

When do Saints score? Still no pattern forming, but minute 52 and 79 both have 4 point scoring moments. 

Who scores for Saints?  

17 different players have already scored for Saints in 2024, but it's not surprising that Percival, our main kicker has the most with 31. Blake on 7 has more than I expected him to. 

Welsby and Lomax remain ever-presents for when Saints score, which is amazing. (A few Rugby League commentators have been sniffy about Welsby's season this year. I may bite them.)  

I really didn't expect Blake and Hurrell to be so high up (3rd and 4th respectively). 

The who plays together when Saints score matrix diagram looks like this:  

The pale space at the top is full of injured players (and have now double checked and Knowles was out with a groin injury) or debutants. Or is Tee Ritson. 

That's recapitulated by the network graph Saints have now conceded 50 point-scoring moments over the season. 

There is no pattern to when they concede: Who is present when Saint's concede?  

Lomax and Welsby at the top of that isn't a surprise because they've been ever present when Saints scored too. 

With Saints having had >100 point-scoring moments and conceding 50, it seemed like a good time to compare where the players sit in the "present for scoring/conceding" rankings". 

Mata'utia is the player present, relatively, for the most concessions versus scores, but he, along with Sironen, Bell, Mbye and Clark have been affected by the Saints twitter not always catching all the substitutions. 

Ritson is next highest in that, but that's a statistical quirk because he's not played many minutes. 

Then comes Clark. I think that's because he's the starting hooker and will always play more minutes in the tougher matches. 

On the other side, the player present, relatively, for the most scores versus concessions is Percival, but I think that's an artefact of the pull him off at minute 50 thing. 

Then comes Sironen, who I've always said does the hard yards quietly and well, then Whitley and Lees. But Lees I know is because he's been off the pitch due to his own cards! 

Which players are present together when Saints concede? Because fewer players have been on the pitch when Saints concede than when they scored, there is less variation in colour than the scoring matrix. The network graph is also more spread out for concessions,  

The interesting thing is that Mbye is one of the outliers on this view, which I'm presuming is because he players fewer minutes than Clark. Lees is because of the cards.

Formula 1 - Miami Grand Prix 2024

Other than KMag trying for the most penalties in a single session, as per usual, very little happened at the Miami Grand Prix. And the reason nothing happens also means a sprint race where nothing happens. 

Ferrari wise, I appreciate it's the US and it's an opportunity for a special livery but I would have been happier if they'd gone further and gone full out with the one Sainz jnr is sitting on in this picture. The official photos of the non-race suit driver outfits are appalling, but the best I could find with both of them in has them both pulling ridiculous faces:  

 It did make them look particularly like 50s-ish gas station attendants. 

The race suits looked like this:  

Of course, it wouldn't be Ferrari without an oops, so of course, they tried to kill Leclerc by not giving him any water. In Miami. In May!!!(https://x.com/ESPNF1/status/1787527750149971977) 

I didn't think I needed a "car tries to kill a driver" square, but I maybe I do.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 12 and the season to date

Game 12 was Saints vs Hull KR, at round about the point in the season where: 

1) It became obvious that this season, Hull KR are good. 

2) Saints, not have a good year 

3) The referees have decided to card Saints players for breathing this year (mild exaggeration, but several things Saints players have been carded for, players from other teams have not) 

Match report here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/hull-kr-v-saints-2024-05-04/?swcfpc=1 Saints lost, and had a player sin-binned (Matty Lees, about which, more later).  In short, woe! 

Also woe! Makinson is leaving at the end of the year (https://x.com/Saints1890/status/1792110445903642738). Now, we have had a good run from him, and I begrudge no one who puts their body on the line the chance of a ginormous lower tax-rate pay off from Catalan Dragons. On the other hand, I don't want to lose him!!!! 

For Game 12: 

The final score was 40-20 to Hull KR.  Only 2 out of Saints's four tries were converted, as seen in the diagram below. Adding an extra 4 points wouldn't have won Saints the game, but it wouldn't have hurt. 

12 of 13 players are on the diagram for playing together when Saints conceded in game 12. Matty Lees is the starting player who is not present, but that's more because he had 10 minutes in the sin bin for a yellow card, which undoubtedly didn't help the defence. 

That leads us to the diagrams for the season to date: 

In game 12, Hull KR had the most point-scoring moments of any team Saints have played so far: Who scores for Saints?:  

As expected, Percival who does the kicking (when he's on the pitch) has still had the most point-scoring moments. 

When do Saints score?:  

Game 12 was Tee Ritson's first game (not sure if injured or out of favour), which is why he is at the bottom of the "number of point-scoring moments Saints players are present for, up to game 12" bar chart. The matrix of players present when Saints score looks like this: Clark, Dodd and Sironen are present more often than expected alongside Welsby and Lomax when Saints score. 

The network graph also reflects the players who have been injured, with Walmsley and Davies sticking out at the edge of the figure. Interestingly, there's starting to be a pattern to when Saints concede, with minute 71 and 11 standing out. Because they're ever presents, Lomax and Welsby are both at the top of the "how many point-conceding moments have Saints players been present for" bar chart. Ritson and Wingfield haven't been playing, and Lees is a mixture of minutes not-played due to injury and being carded. 

The "who are present together when Saints concede" matrix diagram is a different shape to the present-together-when-scoring equivalent, with the together least often group in the top left corner, then the most often together group in the middle (although that's been shifted up and to the left), then the intermediate ones taking up half the diagram. The present together when Saints concede diagram is also developing.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations up to game 11

Saints are a frustrating team:

game 9 - lose to Warrington, game 10 - annihilate Hull FC, game 11 - narrowly squeak past Huddersfield with a last minute drop goal (thank you so much Johnny Lomax). 

Match report here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-huddersfield-giants-2024-04-25/?swcfpc=1 

Because the game was so low-scoring (13-12), I've got no figures for the game. But there are some interesting changes to the rolling diagrams. 

Who scores for Saints? Percival brings up his 20th point-scoring moment. 

When do Saints score, coloured by scorer? There's a distinct pattern of Saints scoring in the last 10 minutes before half-time, but all the minutes where Saints have had 3 point-scoring moments are in the second half. 

Who is present when Saints score? Welsby and Lomax have been present for all point-scoring moments, followed by Whitley and Makinson. 

The least present are Wingfield (who has been injured), Walmsley (also injured) and Davies (guess what). This was when Saints 2024 injury curse really started to become obvious. 

The matrix has changed significantly. Last time, the dark purple "most often together when Saints score" was in the bottom right hand corner, now it's in the top left hand corner. Interestingly, the next darkest area is the top right and the pale section is in the middle. Davies is unexpectedly pale ... because he hasn't played often due to injury. That's also why he sticks out of the network graph. Walmsley's been injured, I'm presuming Knowles also.

Saints also concede mostly in the second half.  

I do not approve of so many point scoring moments happening against Saints in minute 11. 

Who is present when Saints concede? Bennison continues to be present for more concessions than scores. Percival is present for few because of the "wrap him up in cotton wool at minute 50" scheme.

  The concession matrix is still in four sections, not nine like the scoring one, but they're now rectangles not squares. The darkest and largest section runs 11 players, from Welsby to Mata'utia. The smaller one runs for 9 players, from Wingfield to Bell. 

The concession network diagram is bizarre. There's now a central core, with an outer halo of Wingfield, Percival, Mbye, Lees, Batchelor and Walmsley, with Bell and Delaney linking the two parts.

Formula 1 - Chinese Grand Prix 2024

I continue to disapprove of sprint races.  I also disapprove of Alonso thwacking into poor little Carlos!

On the other hand, the race could have gone worse (even if I think this is the race when it started to become clear that McLaren's development team were better than Ferrari's, and that the upgrades weren't) so you know.

Of course, the most important part of the Chinese Grand Prix was that Zhou Guanyu finally got a home grand prix.

https://www.formula1.com/en/video/2024-chinese-grand-prix-zhou-savours-his-moment-in-front-of-the-fans-after-first-home-race.1796936345385336983 

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/zhou-proud-and-honoured-to-race-in-china-but-bottas-day-ends-in.4ullkGVXiW2EWSUsHBumMm 

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/apr/19/zhou-guanyu-chinese-grand-prix-f1

I'm not crying, you're crying etc.

Saints Ahoy - Visualisations from game 10 and the season to date

This is why Saints are so frustrating, they can lose to Warrington (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-9-challenge-cup-quarterfinal/) then a week later they nil Hull FC. Now, admittedly, Hull FC have been wretched this year (that noise you can hear is L bemoaning that Danny Houghton is too good for them), but still. 

Match report here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-hull-fc-2024-04-19/?swcfpc=1

There were enough point-scoring moments that there are game-specific diagrams that are worth sharing.  

10 out of the 17 man squad scored points, with Percival and Bennison on kicking duties and Waqa Blake scoring two tries. Because this only covers one game, it's a very clear picture of who plays together. It's even clearer on the network graph. The players who stick out are the ones who were subbed at any point. That Saints are still wrapping Percival up in cotton wool at minute 50, a pattern they've maintained through out.  

I'm presuming they're trying to make sure he stays in one piece as he's signed up till 2026 - https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/st-helens-stalwart-mark-percival-opens-up-on-why-hes-committed-his-long-term-future-to-club 

There is starting to be a shape to when Saints score. While it's nice to see consistent storing at minutes 51, 52, 60 and 70, I am also very happy with the cluster between minutes 34-40 where Saints have already had two point-scoring moments.

Same graph but coloured in by scorer -     That's Purple for Percival, dominating the graph even if he does only play 50 out of 80 minutes. 

Things have happened to the season-long matrix graph, I think because there were many point-scoring moments but several of the more fringe players were playing. Welsby, Lomax and Whitley are still the darkest purple because they're still together most often. 

Hurrell, Percival, Clark and Knowles play together less often than you'd expect. 

Same for Blake, Mata'utia and Knowles. 

Makinson and Knowles 

and Whitley and Knowles 

I think the Knowles thing is because he's been injured but when he's fit he plays lots of minutes. 

Sironen plays more often than you'd expect with Welsby and Lomax 

Clark plays more often than you'd expect with Sironen and Dodd. 

Mbye plays more often than you'd expect with Welsby, Lomax, Whitley, Hurrell and Bennison, but I think that's all from this game because he played all of it instead of Daryl Clark and there were so many point-scoring moments (19 out of a total of 71 for the season). 

As the season developed, I was a little disappointed in how the matrix didn't seem to develop into an interesting pattern, but it really has developed after this. The network graph has also developed with the lines in the centre becoming really thick. The network diagram has become a large central blob with players hanging off if they play less often. 

I know Wingfield, Knowles and Walmsley have been injured, I think Davies was too, and Mbye is the spare hooker after Darryl Clark.